Stock Market Rally?

Abuskedti

icarus wrote:

when the market goes down its natural for it to rebound. i'm not saying you're wrong to look for stuff like this, there are a lot of surprises before the election, or any election. for instance, right now we have the foley scandal, leaked reports on iraq, woodwards book, etc etc but i dont think you can attribute stuff like this to that. theres way too many forces involved to attribute whats happening to a republican conspiracy to save the House. i dont think its unnatural for the stock market to be steadily rising, its been doing it for years and it would be a lot higher right now if it werent for 9/11.

I will say it one more time.. I don't see this as a republican conspiracy

I see the business community with a steak... they routinely invest very large sums of money on political campaigns.. perhaps to win the round in the last seconds, the community sees a stock market rally as a good investment.

Surly Mobile for example is well aware that many things have short term impact on the dow... things people say - paterns of respected investors...

It can be done.. Its only short term.. and can be very effecting on the America public - with the collective understanding of politics at about the 5th grade level.

jlew24asu

Abuskedti wrote:

lol.. CNN and the rest of the media "explain" the reasons for changes several times a day... much like they explain the reason for invading Iraq - or the approval ratings for president - or why school shootings are up.

CNN should change their name to the Oprah Winfrey show.. because it is not news and surly is not a reliable reference for the workings of the stock market - save perhaps for the number of people it wrongly influences.

so you hate CNN I got it. but that report is stating FACTS. hard to argue with that. just keep the blinders on buddy.

inmytree

an interesting read about the Dow...

Don't Get Excited. It's Just the Dow.
By Allan Sloan
Newsweek

Oct. 16, 2006 issue - Have you recovered yet from celebrating the Dow's reaching record highs last week? Hope you didn't go too wild. Hangovers can be so nasty—though it sure was fun watching folks on the New York Stock Exchange floor whoop it up as the Dow finally eclipsed its highs set in early 2000. But in my customary role as party pooper, I'll let you in on a little secret: even though the Dow has broken the high that it set on Jan. 14, 2000, the market is nowhere near its all-time high. That's because the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average isn't the same thing as the U.S. stock market. Not even close. Although the Dow notched three straight records and ended the week close to 12,000, the real market indicators are still way below their highs. One of them, Standard & Poor's 500 Index—which includes 470 more stocks than the Dow does—ended the week 12 percent below its peak, reached on March 24, 2000. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, which includes all U.S. stocks and peaked the same day as the S&P, was down 9 percent.

The Dow's stocks represent less than a third of the value of the S&P stocks and less than a quarter of the Wilshire's. So why's everyone so Dow-obsessed? I think it's because the Dow, created in 1896, was well entrenched in the public psyche by the time that more useful market measures like the S&P and the Wilshire emerged in 1957 and 1974, respectively. The Dow's kept its overwhelming mind share, its shortcomings notwithstanding.

The S&P is the benchmark that professional investors use to measure their performance—but no one seems emotionally attached to it. When the Dow hit five digits in 1999, people wore DOW 10,000 caps. Have you ever seen an S&P 1,500 cap? Or seen people rooting for the S&P to set a record? I haven't. I've written a zillion articles about the Dow's reaching some benchmark, but don't think I've ever written about the S&P's doing that. The S&P is important, but unloved. The Dow's not all that important, but the public loves it. Go figure.

Even Roger Ibbotson, founder of Ibbotson Associates, which uses S&P statistics to provide data on the market's long-term performance, says he answers in terms of the Dow when someone asks him how the market's doing. "It's a brand name," he told me. "When you want tissues, you ask for Kleenex. When people ask about the market, they want to know about the Dow."

This defies logic, because the S&P is a far-better indicator of how investors are faring. The S&P, you see, is based on companies' stock-market values while the Dow is based on their stock prices. The S&P values a dollar change in the price of GE's 10.4 billion shares more than 18 times as much as a dollar change in GM's 566 million shares. That's logical, because a dollar change in GE's price creates (or vaporizes) vastly more shareholder wealth than a buck change in GM's. By contrast, the Dow counts a dollar swing in GE or GM stock exactly the same: 8.004 points. That's because the Dow is calculated by dividing the combined share prices of its 30 stocks by a wonderfully precise number: currently, it's 0.12493117. (I'd explain how this "Dow divisor" works, but it's really complicated; let's deal with it another day.) The Dow's just so random. Had each Dow stock finished two cents lower on Tuesday, the Dow wouldn't have set a record. A 100-point move sounds like a lot—but it's less than 42 cents for each Dow stock. Finally, you can argue that the Dow hasn't really exceeded its all-time high: it posted a midday high of 11,908 on Jan. 14, 2000, and didn't top that last week.

But enough ragging on the Dow. Now, let's see what we can learn from watching it. For starters, the Dow shows that there's no sure thing when it comes to investing. During the generation-long bull market that started in 1982 and ended in 2000, millions of people were lulled into believing that owning stocks of big companies was a sure way to wealth. But it wasn't. If you owned the Dow since it peaked in 2000, you've gotten essentially no capital gains. But if you'd owned "value" issues or shares of mid-size or small-size companies, you did extremely well.

Things are going well these days for large-capitalization stocks—the Dow's up 11 percent for the year. That's double its 80-year average of 5.5 percent, as calculated by Ibbotson Associates. But it's not a great year for another market measure, the NASDAQ, which is up only 4 percent and is 54 percent below its 2000 high. It has to more than double just to get back to where it was almost seven years ago.

Be my guest, celebrate the Dow. Just don't confuse it with the market. They're different things.

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15173073/site/newsweek/

cincybearcat

Can we retitle the thread "Conspiracy Theorists grasping at straws'?

miller8966

You honestly cannot influence the market to that much of a degre..."O its election time lets get consumers to buy". Its not that easy..the market is a force within itself, or as adam smith would say the invisible hand.

Abuskedti

icarus wrote:

rather than wanting the stock market to go up for political benefit, i'd assume the business community wants the stock market to go up for their own benefit. wouldnt that make sense?

Why would they want it to go down.. The Dow.. as explained earlier is both a fraction of the actual market and that most quoted and influential with the general public..

a quick rally easily constructed to save some business friendly politicians...

the desired effect would be to influence some voters...

my2hands

jlew24asu wrote:

I'm glad you admit to knowing nothing about the stock market. you arent the only one around here.

luckily I do and can add some commen sense to this discussion.

i can explain it in one sentence...

Wall Street has nothing to do with Main Street. Once average joe understands that we will all be a little better off.

by the way jlew24asu, how does it feel to be a war profiteer?

PaperPlates

my2hands wrote:

i can explain it in one sentence...

Wall Street has nothing to do with Main Street. Once average joe understands that we will all be a little better off.

by the way jlew24asu, how does it feel to be a war profiteer?

The freedom you enjoy to say dumbass things like that............................was the PROFIT of past WARS.




How do you feel being a war profiteer?

Abuskedti

jlew24asu wrote:

deserve support? why. how can you support such incoherent claims? unless you believe them yourself.

I'm glad you admit to knowing nothing about the stock market. you arent the only one around here.

luckily I do and can add some commen sense to this discussion.

There are many homless that thought they understood the stock market...

good luck with your confidence and knowledge...

zigfreed and Roy understood tigers too

jlew24asu

Abuskedti wrote:

There are many homless that thought they understood the stock market...

good luck with your confidence and knowledge...

zigfreed and Roy understood tigers too

I have done VERY well investing in the market. I actually have done well for others too. my confidence and knowledge has made me a rich man.

Rushlimbo

jlew24asu wrote:

just read. this will explain todays rise.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/23/markets/markets_1130/index.htm?postversion=2006102311

isnt it much easier to post this rather than calling the thread and poster ignorant for asking a question ?

jlew24asu

Rushlimbo wrote:

isnt it much easier to post this rather than calling the thread and poster ignorant for asking a question ?

probably. but the question is so foolish it barely deserves my time of finding a link to disprove him.

and i'm sorry but the truth hurts. it is a very ignornant statement he posted.

with over 10,000 posts he should be smart enough to know big business does not make the market rally in order to keep republicans in office.

it can not be done.

inmytree

Rushlimbo wrote:

isnt it much easier to post this rather than calling the thread and poster ignorant for asking a question ?

I guess the rich and confident have different ways of doing things....

Solat13

If the Republicans really control the stock market, why would they have allowed Bush Sr. to lose to Clinton in 1992 when the country was going through a recession. Surely an oil man like Bush had powerful friends who could've singlehandedly turned the recession around and not allowed Clinton and Carville to use the famous "It's the economy, stupid" line as a rallying cry in 1992. :rolleyes:

JOEJOEJOE

Large investors have a degree of control over the market, as do brokerages that force the price of a stock higher/lower based on their coverage/earnings forecast of a stock.....sorta like the way a celebrity can raise the popularity of a clothing line!

The government can influence the market by raising/holding/lowering interest rates.

World unrest can influence the market when people sell out of paranoia, and then bargain hunters step-in to get a great deal afterwards.

Seasonal trends can't really move a stock price.....buying a retail store's shares a few months before the holiday season makes no sense.......buying it before the govt makes their retail forecast is a gamble......not too many secrets left when it comes to buying before everyone else catches on, except for maybe a small company going public.

inmytree

I think this thread speaks to the level of distrust many have with the current powers that be...

while I agree, it would be very hard to pull off (manipulation of the markets), it's not impossible...nothing is impossible...

farfromglorified

It's truly scary how some people see this world.

JOEJOEJOE

inmytree wrote:

I think this thread speaks to the level of distrust many have with the current powers that be...

while I agree, it would be very hard to pull off (manipulation of the markets), it's not impossible...nothing is impossible...

The easiest way to manipulate a market is to go to a small horse race track, and put $100 to win on a longshot....watch and see how many people follow suit when they see that the odds have been lowered from 25-1 to 5-1.

People love to follow!

Abuskedti

JOEJOEJOE wrote:

The easiest way to manipulate a market is to go to a small horse race track, and put $100 to win on a longshot....watch and see how many people follow suit when they see that the odds have been lowered from 25-1 to 5-1.

People love to follow!

The stock market is indeed very much like the odds at a race track... they change based upon what people are betting on... and people follow...

Manipulating the dow is in fact pretty easy.. people have been doing it for a very long time.

farfromglorified

Abuskedti wrote:

The stock market is indeed very much like the odds at a race track... they change based upon what people are betting on... and people follow...

Except that the races end, you know?

Manipulating the dow is in fact pretty easy.. people have been doing it for a very long time.

How cloak and dagger of you.

Let me ask a very simple question:

If the purpose of such manipulation is to get Republicans elected which in turn equals more profit, why not just manipulate more profit????????