The disingenuousness is astounding. You mean to tell me that a self-described trade attorney dealing with tariffs doesn’t see the difference between the two candidates, parties and policies? GTFOOH.
Oh I see the difference, for sure. I never said that I did not. And maybe ignorance is bliss. I am not disingenuous or misinformed on this issue. Please do not bootstrap my opinions on trade to other issues. The Biden administration kept the tariffs in place. They even let certain exclusions expire and leading to higher tariffs for more imported products. Just because I think combating Chinese business practices should be a priority issue for our government does not mean I am not appalled by the Supreme Court's decision on Wade, or the need for more action towards the environmental concerns. I can want women's rights to be restored, tougher environmental enforcement, and a strong trade policy. But politics get in the way of progress. It is our blessing and our curse.
The disingenuousness is astounding. You mean to tell me that a self-described trade attorney dealing with tariffs doesn’t see the difference between the two candidates, parties and policies? GTFOOH.
Oh I see the difference, for sure. I never said that I did not. And maybe ignorance is bliss. I am not disingenuous or misinformed on this issue. Please do not bootstrap my opinions on trade to other issues. The Biden administration kept the tariffs in place. They even let certain exclusions expire and leading to higher tariffs for more imported products. Just because I think combating Chinese business practices should be a priority issue for our government does not mean I am not appalled by the Supreme Court's decision on Wade, or the need for more action towards the environmental concerns. I can want women's rights to be restored, tougher environmental enforcement, and a strong trade policy. But politics get in the way of progress. It is our blessing and our curse.
And yet you still question who to vote for, posit both sides are the same, politics is mudslinging, like this year is different from what it’s always been in time immemorial and that our election system is flawed and not foolproof in this, the 21st century. I’m not buying the act that you’re selling for if you’re this confused, this late in the game, I can’t help you nor convince you. Enjoy the fascism.
The disingenuousness is astounding. You mean to tell me that a self-described trade attorney dealing with tariffs doesn’t see the difference between the two candidates, parties and policies? GTFOOH.
Oh I see the difference, for sure. I never said that I did not. And maybe ignorance is bliss. I am not disingenuous or misinformed on this issue. Please do not bootstrap my opinions on trade to other issues. The Biden administration kept the tariffs in place. They even let certain exclusions expire and leading to higher tariffs for more imported products. Just because I think combating Chinese business practices should be a priority issue for our government does not mean I am not appalled by the Supreme Court's decision on Wade, or the need for more action towards the environmental concerns. I can want women's rights to be restored, tougher environmental enforcement, and a strong trade policy. But politics get in the way of progress. It is our blessing and our curse.
My suggestion would be to vote for Harris if for no other reason than you will be able to vote again in four years. I'm not be facetious. If you don't like Harris, at least appreciate being in a country that allows dissension. If nothing else, that freedom is worth preserving.
"Pretty cookies, heart squares all around, yeah!" -Eddie Vedder, "Smile"
I don’t believe Trump is giving up on PA. That would mean he loses the election.
That said. Their numbers must show them losing. They wouldn’t be suing to get more early votes if they were winning. That’s just not who they are.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila, PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
if i were undecided at this point, i would never admit it. especially on the internet.
POOTWH supporters won’t own it either. Says a lot.
a lot of "undecided voters" are actually trump supporters with enough self awareness to at least appear to be conflicted about supporting him.
I don’t see what the difference would be about an undecided voter and a Trump supporter in this election. What makes them undecided that also do not make them trash?
Whether it’s his sexual assaults, his climate change-denial, wanting to use nukes or any of his lovely character traits. What is it that makes them undecided?
Post edited by Spiritual_Chaos on
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Three of the past four newcomers to the White House took office in or around a recession. PHOTO: KENT NISHIMURA/GETTY IMAGES
Whoever wins the White House next week will take office with no shortage of challenges, but at least one huge asset: an economy that is putting its peers to shame.
With another solid performance in the third quarter, the U.S. has grown 2.7% over the past year. It is outrunning every other major developed economy, not to mention its own historical growth rate.
More impressive than the rate of growth is its quality. This growth didn’t come solely from using up finite supplies of labor and other resources, which could fuel inflation. Instead, it came from making people and businesses more productive.
This combination, if sustained, will be a wind at the back of the next president. Three of the past four newcomers to the White House took office in or around a recession (the exception was Donald Trump, in 2017), which consumed much of their first-term agenda. The next president should be free of that burden.
Meanwhile, higher productivity growth should make the economy a bit less prone to inflation, more capable of sustaining budget deficits, and more likely to deliver strong wages. All would be a boon to President Trump or President Kamala Harris.
To describe this economy as remarkable would strike most Americans as confusing, if not insulting. In the latest WSJ poll, 62% of respondents rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor,” which explains the lack of any political dividend for President Biden. There are many reasons for the disconnect, most important the high inflation of 2021-23, whose effects still linger.
Cumulative change since 2019, quarterly
GDP
Productivity
Working hours
Eurozone
U.S.
10%
5
0
–5
–10
–15
–20
2020
’21
’22
’23
Note: Shows GDP- and PPP-weighted averages. Source: Bank for International Settlements Alana Pipe/WSJ
When you’re unhappy at home, you can gain some perspective by checking in on your neighbors. The whole world has been through the wringer since 2020; any country’s performance alone is less revealing than how it compares with its peers.
Most leaders from around the world would trade their economies for the U.S.’s in a heartbeat. Through the second quarter, the U.S. grew 3%; none of the world’s next six largest advanced economies grew more than 1%. Even China is struggling.
Sometimes strong growth is a prelude to a recession because it comes from straining the economy’s capacity, generating inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
Yet inflation has fallen in the past year, to 2.7% in the third quarter, using the Fed’s preferred underlying measure. That’s still above the Fed’s 2% target, but the progress was sufficient for the Fed to cut rates in September and pencil in more cuts—all without growth flagging.
“That’s pretty impressive. That’s a bit of a Goldilocks outcome,” Robin Vince, chief executive of BNY, said in a recent interview. “A year, two years ago, very few commentators actually thought that was going to be possible.”
Some of that growth was due to the labor force swelling with inflows of unauthorized migrants. Payroll employment was up 2.4 million in the year through the third quarter, or 1.6%. That, however, overstates the contribution of labor because on average each employee worked slightly less hours.
The U.S. economy is an outlier when it comes to strength in productivity. PHOTO: ADAM GLANZMAN/BLOOMBERG
Adjusted for that, productivity—i.e., output per hour—probably rose 2% to 2.5% in the past year, well above the 1.5% average annual rate from 2007 to 2019.
Economic growth is unlikely to sustain its recent pace because migrant flows have already slowed. Yet thanks to higher productivity, the U.S.’s potential growth—what it can sustain over the long run—might be higher than the 1.8% that many forecasters like the Fed have long assumed.
Satyam Panday, an economist at S&P Global Ratings, thinks the potential might be 2% to 2.3%, citing booming investment in artificial intelligence, data centers, and renewable energy. “You have to pick your side,” said Panday. “We are techno optimists.”
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Productivity is extremely volatile, especially since the pandemic, so it is too soon to say its trend has shifted. Still, one encouraging sign is that no other country has witnessed it.
The Bank for International Settlements, a Swiss-based umbrella group for central banks, calculates that from the end of 2019 to the end of 2023, total output rose 7.9% in the U.S., of which 1.2% came from more hours worked and 6.7% from productivity—more output per hour. In the eurozone, output was up 3% in the same period, entirely due to more hours.
“Productivity is really bad across the world,” said Hyun Song Shin, the BIS’s economic adviser. “The U.S. is an outlier.”
The BIS thinks inflation is a bigger risk globally in coming years because of threats to supply chains such as from geopolitical conflict. But productivity provides some cushion by enabling companies to absorb higher costs, such as wages. Shin said, “The U.S. can run the economy hot in a way others cannot.”
Odds are inflation will be much closer to 2% in the next four years than in the past four. PHOTO: RICHARD B. LEVINE/ZUMA PRESS
What’s behind the divergence? Read the recent report by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on European competitiveness. In explaining why Europe lags behind, it reveals why the U.S. leads.
One reason is the domestic energy supply, which insulated the U.S. from the surge in natural-gas prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European Union companies still pay two to three times more for electricity and four to five times more for natural gas than their U.S. counterparts, Draghi found.
More important is the role of technology. No EU company worth more than 100 billion euros, equivalent to $108 billion, “has been set up from scratch in the last 50 years,” while all six U.S. companies worth more than $1.08 trillion were created in this period, Draghi said. America’s companies are also faster to adopt technology such as artificial intelligence, which explains much higher productivity in professional services, finance, insurance, and information technology services.
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What should the next president do to keep the U.S. economy strong? Join the conversation below.
These differences are mostly the product of the intrinsic dynamism of American capitalism rather than any president’s policies. Still, Trump and Biden, in their respective fiscal policies, both sought to boost business investment, a key ingredient to productivity: Trump, through lower taxes and regulations on corporations broadly, and Biden by directing federal dollars and tax credits to semiconductor manufacturing, low-carbon energy, and infrastructure.
If the economy is so good, why are Americans so glum? Lots of noneconomic reasons, I’ve argued. But no question, inflation looms large. Wages, from 2021 to 2023, didn’t keep up with inflation, as they are supposed to when productivity and economic growth are strong. Higher prices flowed disproportionately to profits rather than pay.
That has begun to change, though. Average wages since mid-2023 have outpaced inflation as the latter fell. Inflation could yet stall, or even rise; both nominees, and Trump in particular, have plans that could pressure prices. And surprises could interfere, like a big rise, or fall, in oil prices, another pandemic, or war.
Still, odds are inflation will be much closer to 2% in the next four years than in the past four. With time, anger at today’s higher prices will become acceptance. The next president is likely to bear much less of the burden of inflation than Biden did.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila, PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Donald Trump’s racism, sexism, xenophobia and penchant for corruption have long made him unfit for any public office, let alone the presidency. But as he continues his bid for a second term in the White House, there is an unsettling and undeniable shift that is leading many experts, observers and even some Trump supporters to conclude that the former president’s mental acuity and sharpness are also in decline, that his physical health and stamina are waning and that his frustration and anger are boiling over.
Americans from both sides of the political spectrum should be alarmed by Trump’s words and behavior. The nation must confront the fact that beyond his hateful character, he is crippled cognitively and showing clear signs of mental illness.
There’s no need to resort to armchair psychology to interpret what’s apparent. If victorious, Trump would be the oldest president ever inaugurated. In recent weeks, he has canceled an increasing number of public appearances, with Trump’s own campaign citing the candidate’s exhaustion. When he does appear publicly, Trump struggles to complete sentences or sustain coherent thoughts, and has shown a pronounced difficulty concentrating and a tendency to repeat himself, sometimes within the same sentence.
At a recent rally in New Hampshire, for example, Trump began to discuss infrastructure and wound up segueing into a disjointed monologue about loyalty and perceived injustices against him, ending with a bewildering comment about windmills causing cancer.
This is not an isolated incident. A recent analysis by The New York Times noted that Trump’s rally speeches over the past eight years have become darker, longer, more profane and increasingly unfocused and unhinged — a troubling sign that he is no longer able to articulate ideas or reason in ways we expect of our leaders. This makes him prey to manipulations by his own staff or, worse, the control of foreign adversaries.
He shambles about aimlessly, slurs his words and sometimes speaks gibberish. Always an effortless liar, now that his speeches are nothing more than a series of lies tangled in a mass inside his head, it appears he no longer even knows he’s lying.
He has called for the imprisonment of journalists, pledged to purge the government of “deep state” operatives he perceives as disloyal and is amplifying his tyrannical rhetoric. He has also increased his public praise for dictators like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping while using increasingly fascist language to describe those he deems political enemies. The former president has even suggested using the military against his domestic critics — an approach reminiscent of repressive regimes in history that has often been the precursor to creeping authoritarianism.
With Trump’s fragility comes an increasing dependence on enablers who show a disturbing willingness to indulge his delusions, amplify his paranoia or steer his feeble mind toward their own goals. Among these enablers is his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio. Should Trump be deemed unfit to serve, Vance would step into power.
Once a “Never Trump” conservative who openly criticized Trump as a danger to the republic, Vance has since fully embraced an extremist ideology, morphing into a vocal MAGA supporter who seems eager to emulate Trump’s worst instincts.
Beyond his weird obsession with childless women whom he says are “deranged” and “sociopathic,” and his penchant for spreading conspiracy theories about immigrants and other marginalized communities, Vance poses a different threat to democracy than Trump. He has repeatedly demonstrated that he is little more than a puppet of his billionaire hedge fund benefactors and has openly stated he would have refused to certify the 2020 election, suggesting he would subordinate constitutional principles for personal profit and power.
His willingness to discard any principles shows that he would likely not push back against Trump’s excesses or his deteriorating mental stability. Instead, he might embrace a Trumpian authoritarianism, exacerbating the very dangers we face with Trump’s current mental decline.
If history has taught us anything, it is that democracies are fragile. America’s founders designed the presidency to be a stabilizing force. Trump’s instability, paired with his and Vance’s increasing willingness to trample democratic norms and visible contempt of anyone not like him, has transformed what might have once been seen by conservatives as an uncomfortable leadership style into an existential threat to American democracy.
For those who believe in a country governed by checks, balances and the rule of law, a return to Trumpian leadership is dangerous in its own right. But to do so with an impaired leader who cannot govern competently and a fellow authoritarian waiting in the wings is perilous.
As voters consider Trump’s latest bid for the presidency, it’s essential to recognize that this election is not merely a choice between policy platforms or party loyalties. It’s a test of our willingness to safeguard our nation from leaders whose fitness for office is in serious question. This election is about protecting the integrity of our democracy from those who would let it collapse in the name of power, loyalty or expedience.
Donald Trump has never had the moral compass to lead this country. But even his supporters cannot afford to ignore the signs that he may no longer have the mental faculties to lead it either. The stakes are simply too high.
if i were undecided at this point, i would never admit it. especially on the internet.
POOTWH supporters won’t own it either. Says a lot.
a lot of "undecided voters" are actually trump supporters with enough self awareness to at least appear to be conflicted about supporting him.
I don’t see what the difference would be about an undecided voter and a Trump supporter in this election. What makes them undecided that also do not make them trash?
Whether it’s his sexual assaults, his climate change-denial, wanting to use nukes or any of his lovely character traits. What is it that makes them undecided?
And this gets to the heart of the matter. I have come to expect some level of corruption, self dealing and poor character traits from all politicians. It is a dirty business. And that is what I hate about this process. Clinton was a good President but his morals were abhorrent. I don't really know. Voting for Harris feels like complacently mailing it in, while voting for Trump seems like supporting an evil empire. It is a lose lose situation. Nobody wins IMHO.
if i were undecided at this point, i would never admit it. especially on the internet.
POOTWH supporters won’t own it either. Says a lot.
a lot of "undecided voters" are actually trump supporters with enough self awareness to at least appear to be conflicted about supporting him.
I don’t see what the difference would be about an undecided voter and a Trump supporter in this election. What makes them undecided that also do not make them trash?
Whether it’s his sexual assaults, his climate change-denial, wanting to use nukes or any of his lovely character traits. What is it that makes them undecided?
And this gets to the heart of the matter. I have come to expect some level of corruption, self dealing and poor character traits from all politicians. It is a dirty business. And that is what I hate about this process. Clinton was a good President but his morals were abhorrent. I don't really know. Voting for Harris feels like complacently mailing it in, while voting for Trump seems like supporting an evil empire. It is a lose lose situation. Nobody wins IMHO.
so mailing it in vs evil empire...hard decision...got it
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018) The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
if i were undecided at this point, i would never admit it. especially on the internet.
POOTWH supporters won’t own it either. Says a lot.
a lot of "undecided voters" are actually trump supporters with enough self awareness to at least appear to be conflicted about supporting him.
I don’t see what the difference would be about an undecided voter and a Trump supporter in this election. What makes them undecided that also do not make them trash?
Whether it’s his sexual assaults, his climate change-denial, wanting to use nukes or any of his lovely character traits. What is it that makes them undecided?
And this gets to the heart of the matter. I have come to expect some level of corruption, self dealing and poor character traits from all politicians. It is a dirty business. And that is what I hate about this process. Clinton was a good President but his morals were abhorrent. I don't really know. Voting for Harris feels like complacently mailing it in, while voting for Trump seems like supporting an evil empire. It is a lose lose situation. Nobody wins IMHO.
If that is what you think, how the fuck is this a difficult decision for you? HAHAHA Come on man. This has got to be a bit.
Just vote for Trump - help him win the popular vote with your NY vote. Maybe then there will be a bipartisan deal to abolish the electoral college. #ITripleDogDareYa
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila, PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Comments
Oh I see the difference, for sure. I never said that I did not. And maybe ignorance is bliss. I am not disingenuous or misinformed on this issue. Please do not bootstrap my opinions on trade to other issues. The Biden administration kept the tariffs in place. They even let certain exclusions expire and leading to higher tariffs for more imported products. Just because I think combating Chinese business practices should be a priority issue for our government does not mean I am not appalled by the Supreme Court's decision on Wade, or the need for more action towards the environmental concerns. I can want women's rights to be restored, tougher environmental enforcement, and a strong trade policy. But politics get in the way of progress. It is our blessing and our curse.
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
My suggestion would be to vote for Harris if for no other reason than you will be able to vote again in four years. I'm not be facetious. If you don't like Harris, at least appreciate being in a country that allows dissension. If nothing else, that freedom is worth preserving.
-Eddie Vedder, "Smile"
Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Whether it’s his sexual assaults, his climate change-denial, wanting to use nukes or any of his lovely character traits. What is it that makes them undecided?
This is great....what a fucking idiot
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
He should drop out.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-next-president-inherits-a-remarkable-economy-7be2d059
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-next-president-inherits-a-remarkable-economy-7be2d059
The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy
The high quality of recent economic growth should put a wind at the back of the White House’s next occupant
By
Greg IpOct. 31, 2024 5:30 am ET
Whoever wins the White House next week will take office with no shortage of challenges, but at least one huge asset: an economy that is putting its peers to shame.
With another solid performance in the third quarter, the U.S. has grown 2.7% over the past year. It is outrunning every other major developed economy, not to mention its own historical growth rate.
More impressive than the rate of growth is its quality. This growth didn’t come solely from using up finite supplies of labor and other resources, which could fuel inflation. Instead, it came from making people and businesses more productive.
This combination, if sustained, will be a wind at the back of the next president. Three of the past four newcomers to the White House took office in or around a recession (the exception was Donald Trump, in 2017), which consumed much of their first-term agenda. The next president should be free of that burden.
Meanwhile, higher productivity growth should make the economy a bit less prone to inflation, more capable of sustaining budget deficits, and more likely to deliver strong wages. All would be a boon to President Trump or President Kamala Harris.
To describe this economy as remarkable would strike most Americans as confusing, if not insulting. In the latest WSJ poll, 62% of respondents rated the economy as “not so good” or “poor,” which explains the lack of any political dividend for President Biden. There are many reasons for the disconnect, most important the high inflation of 2021-23, whose effects still linger.
Cumulative change since 2019, quarterly
GDP
Productivity
Working hours
Eurozone
U.S.
10%
5
0
–5
–10
–15
–20
2020
’21
’22
’23
Note: Shows GDP- and PPP-weighted averages.
Source: Bank for International Settlements
Alana Pipe/WSJ
When you’re unhappy at home, you can gain some perspective by checking in on your neighbors. The whole world has been through the wringer since 2020; any country’s performance alone is less revealing than how it compares with its peers.
Most leaders from around the world would trade their economies for the U.S.’s in a heartbeat. Through the second quarter, the U.S. grew 3%; none of the world’s next six largest advanced economies grew more than 1%. Even China is struggling.
Sometimes strong growth is a prelude to a recession because it comes from straining the economy’s capacity, generating inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
Yet inflation has fallen in the past year, to 2.7% in the third quarter, using the Fed’s preferred underlying measure. That’s still above the Fed’s 2% target, but the progress was sufficient for the Fed to cut rates in September and pencil in more cuts—all without growth flagging.
“That’s pretty impressive. That’s a bit of a Goldilocks outcome,” Robin Vince, chief executive of BNY, said in a recent interview. “A year, two years ago, very few commentators actually thought that was going to be possible.”
Some of that growth was due to the labor force swelling with inflows of unauthorized migrants. Payroll employment was up 2.4 million in the year through the third quarter, or 1.6%. That, however, overstates the contribution of labor because on average each employee worked slightly less hours.
Adjusted for that, productivity—i.e., output per hour—probably rose 2% to 2.5% in the past year, well above the 1.5% average annual rate from 2007 to 2019.
Economic growth is unlikely to sustain its recent pace because migrant flows have already slowed. Yet thanks to higher productivity, the U.S.’s potential growth—what it can sustain over the long run—might be higher than the 1.8% that many forecasters like the Fed have long assumed.
Satyam Panday, an economist at S&P Global Ratings, thinks the potential might be 2% to 2.3%, citing booming investment in artificial intelligence, data centers, and renewable energy. “You have to pick your side,” said Panday. “We are techno optimists.”
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Productivity is extremely volatile, especially since the pandemic, so it is too soon to say its trend has shifted. Still, one encouraging sign is that no other country has witnessed it.
The Bank for International Settlements, a Swiss-based umbrella group for central banks, calculates that from the end of 2019 to the end of 2023, total output rose 7.9% in the U.S., of which 1.2% came from more hours worked and 6.7% from productivity—more output per hour. In the eurozone, output was up 3% in the same period, entirely due to more hours.
“Productivity is really bad across the world,” said Hyun Song Shin, the BIS’s economic adviser. “The U.S. is an outlier.”
The BIS thinks inflation is a bigger risk globally in coming years because of threats to supply chains such as from geopolitical conflict. But productivity provides some cushion by enabling companies to absorb higher costs, such as wages. Shin said, “The U.S. can run the economy hot in a way others cannot.”
What’s behind the divergence? Read the recent report by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on European competitiveness. In explaining why Europe lags behind, it reveals why the U.S. leads.
One reason is the domestic energy supply, which insulated the U.S. from the surge in natural-gas prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European Union companies still pay two to three times more for electricity and four to five times more for natural gas than their U.S. counterparts, Draghi found.
More important is the role of technology. No EU company worth more than 100 billion euros, equivalent to $108 billion, “has been set up from scratch in the last 50 years,” while all six U.S. companies worth more than $1.08 trillion were created in this period, Draghi said. America’s companies are also faster to adopt technology such as artificial intelligence, which explains much higher productivity in professional services, finance, insurance, and information technology services.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
What should the next president do to keep the U.S. economy strong? Join the conversation below.
These differences are mostly the product of the intrinsic dynamism of American capitalism rather than any president’s policies. Still, Trump and Biden, in their respective fiscal policies, both sought to boost business investment, a key ingredient to productivity: Trump, through lower taxes and regulations on corporations broadly, and Biden by directing federal dollars and tax credits to semiconductor manufacturing, low-carbon energy, and infrastructure.
If the economy is so good, why are Americans so glum? Lots of noneconomic reasons, I’ve argued. But no question, inflation looms large. Wages, from 2021 to 2023, didn’t keep up with inflation, as they are supposed to when productivity and economic growth are strong. Higher prices flowed disproportionately to profits rather than pay.
That has begun to change, though. Average wages since mid-2023 have outpaced inflation as the latter fell. Inflation could yet stall, or even rise; both nominees, and Trump in particular, have plans that could pressure prices. And surprises could interfere, like a big rise, or fall, in oil prices, another pandemic, or war.
Still, odds are inflation will be much closer to 2% in the next four years than in the past four. With time, anger at today’s higher prices will become acceptance. The next president is likely to bear much less of the burden of inflation than Biden did.
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Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
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Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
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Donald Trump’s racism, sexism, xenophobia and penchant for corruption have long made him unfit for any public office, let alone the presidency. But as he continues his bid for a second term in the White House, there is an unsettling and undeniable shift that is leading many experts, observers and even some Trump supporters to conclude that the former president’s mental acuity and sharpness are also in decline, that his physical health and stamina are waning and that his frustration and anger are boiling over.
Americans from both sides of the political spectrum should be alarmed by Trump’s words and behavior. The nation must confront the fact that beyond his hateful character, he is crippled cognitively and showing clear signs of mental illness.
There’s no need to resort to armchair psychology to interpret what’s apparent. If victorious, Trump would be the oldest president ever inaugurated. In recent weeks, he has canceled an increasing number of public appearances, with Trump’s own campaign citing the candidate’s exhaustion. When he does appear publicly, Trump struggles to complete sentences or sustain coherent thoughts, and has shown a pronounced difficulty concentrating and a tendency to repeat himself, sometimes within the same sentence.
At a recent rally in New Hampshire, for example, Trump began to discuss infrastructure and wound up segueing into a disjointed monologue about loyalty and perceived injustices against him, ending with a bewildering comment about windmills causing cancer.
This is not an isolated incident. A recent analysis by The New York Times noted that Trump’s rally speeches over the past eight years have become darker, longer, more profane and increasingly unfocused and unhinged — a troubling sign that he is no longer able to articulate ideas or reason in ways we expect of our leaders. This makes him prey to manipulations by his own staff or, worse, the control of foreign adversaries.
He shambles about aimlessly, slurs his words and sometimes speaks gibberish. Always an effortless liar, now that his speeches are nothing more than a series of lies tangled in a mass inside his head, it appears he no longer even knows he’s lying.
He has called for the imprisonment of journalists, pledged to purge the government of “deep state” operatives he perceives as disloyal and is amplifying his tyrannical rhetoric. He has also increased his public praise for dictators like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping while using increasingly fascist language to describe those he deems political enemies. The former president has even suggested using the military against his domestic critics — an approach reminiscent of repressive regimes in history that has often been the precursor to creeping authoritarianism.
With Trump’s fragility comes an increasing dependence on enablers who show a disturbing willingness to indulge his delusions, amplify his paranoia or steer his feeble mind toward their own goals. Among these enablers is his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio. Should Trump be deemed unfit to serve, Vance would step into power.
Once a “Never Trump” conservative who openly criticized Trump as a danger to the republic, Vance has since fully embraced an extremist ideology, morphing into a vocal MAGA supporter who seems eager to emulate Trump’s worst instincts.
Beyond his weird obsession with childless women whom he says are “deranged” and “sociopathic,” and his penchant for spreading conspiracy theories about immigrants and other marginalized communities, Vance poses a different threat to democracy than Trump. He has repeatedly demonstrated that he is little more than a puppet of his billionaire hedge fund benefactors and has openly stated he would have refused to certify the 2020 election, suggesting he would subordinate constitutional principles for personal profit and power.
His willingness to discard any principles shows that he would likely not push back against Trump’s excesses or his deteriorating mental stability. Instead, he might embrace a Trumpian authoritarianism, exacerbating the very dangers we face with Trump’s current mental decline.
If history has taught us anything, it is that democracies are fragile. America’s founders designed the presidency to be a stabilizing force. Trump’s instability, paired with his and Vance’s increasing willingness to trample democratic norms and visible contempt of anyone not like him, has transformed what might have once been seen by conservatives as an uncomfortable leadership style into an existential threat to American democracy.
For those who believe in a country governed by checks, balances and the rule of law, a return to Trumpian leadership is dangerous in its own right. But to do so with an impaired leader who cannot govern competently and a fellow authoritarian waiting in the wings is perilous.
As voters consider Trump’s latest bid for the presidency, it’s essential to recognize that this election is not merely a choice between policy platforms or party loyalties. It’s a test of our willingness to safeguard our nation from leaders whose fitness for office is in serious question. This election is about protecting the integrity of our democracy from those who would let it collapse in the name of power, loyalty or expedience.
Donald Trump has never had the moral compass to lead this country. But even his supporters cannot afford to ignore the signs that he may no longer have the mental faculties to lead it either. The stakes are simply too high.
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2024/oct/30/trumps-decline-has-been-alarming/
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The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
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Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Incidentally, Mullaney is hosting this week. Should be a good one.