Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Coinbase was being investigated by the SEC so they:
- gave $75M a to pro-Trump PAC - gave $1M to Trump’s inauguration - sponsored an inaugural party - hired Trump’s campaign manager - listed Trump’s meme coin
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Coinbase was being investigated by the SEC so they:
- gave $75M a to pro-Trump PAC - gave $1M to Trump’s inauguration - sponsored an inaugural party - hired Trump’s campaign manager - listed Trump’s meme coin
So here's the question, and I'd love some advice from our resident CPA ( @Gern Blansten ). I asked my wife and while she is a CPA focused on tax, it's really business tax and not personal so not sure where to go.
I'm pretty convinced we are going to have a recession starting this year, preceded by a correction as one would expect. As an investor that uses E-trade, and I haven't sold a stock in years. If I sell to try to move my money to safer harbor, I will have to pay 15% capital gains, I would presume, just to hide the money.
So is there a formula used for a retail investor to determine at what decline in stock price makes it worth it to sell (prior to the drop)? It can't just be 15% since you only pay tax on the gains.
If I'm thinking about this wrong, please tell me. I'm only 52, so it's not like I couldn't ride out a recession either.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.
I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.
Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.
I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.
What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.
Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.
I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.
What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.
Odds are high. It’s not a new thing. Shaking out weak hands for cheap shares is a predatory practice that’s been around for a while.
Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.
I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.
What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.
Odds are high. It’s not a new thing. Shaking out weak hands for cheap shares is a predatory practice that’s been around for a while.
You guys think he's going to back off again in a week to buy the dip? That's pretty diabolical and on-brand. But it's a lot of negative PR to deliver that "help" to his friends.
it is so hard to decipher what is just stupidity/chaos agent vs a plan to enrich himself.
Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.
I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.
What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.
Odds are high. It’s not a new thing. Shaking out weak hands for cheap shares is a predatory practice that’s been around for a while.
You guys think he's going to back off again in a week to buy the dip? That's pretty diabolical and on-brand. But it's a lot of negative PR to deliver that "help" to his friends.
it is so hard to decipher what is just stupidity/chaos agent vs a plan to enrich himself.
I think he's diabolically stupid to the extent he goes about chaotic practices that only the really wealthy or those with disposable income can risk making a move not fully knowing what his plan is. As for the current tariff plan, I don't see him sticking with it. He knows it's horrible for his image, but he'll stick with it no matter because that's what he does until he can claim some victory/win, even if it's bullshit and anyone with any intelligence can see through it. His base will still eat it up and the sycophants in office and in right wing media will pretend it was genius.
Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.
I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.
What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.
Odds are high. It’s not a new thing. Shaking out weak hands for cheap shares is a predatory practice that’s been around for a while.
You guys think he's going to back off again in a week to buy the dip? That's pretty diabolical and on-brand. But it's a lot of negative PR to deliver that "help" to his friends.
it is so hard to decipher what is just stupidity/chaos agent vs a plan to enrich himself.
I agree. It’s impossible to know. I’m prepared to ride it out and buy a bunch once it seems we reached the bottom. Weird times.
Welp, here we go. We are barreling towards a recession. The lights were already flashing before the tariffs.
I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.
What are the odds he is creating this event to enrich his friends more when they buy the dip? Every week is a new stance/issue to make things more and more unstable. The markets are going to look like a roller coaster for the foreseeable future as he opens his dumb mouth and enacts and then redacts on everything.
Odds are high. It’s not a new thing. Shaking out weak hands for cheap shares is a predatory practice that’s been around for a while.
You guys think he's going to back off again in a week to buy the dip? That's pretty diabolical and on-brand. But it's a lot of negative PR to deliver that "help" to his friends.
it is so hard to decipher what is just stupidity/chaos agent vs a plan to enrich himself.
I think he's diabolically stupid to the extent he goes about chaotic practices that only the really wealthy or those with disposable income can risk making a move not fully knowing what his plan is. As for the current tariff plan, I don't see him sticking with it. He knows it's horrible for his image, but he'll stick with it no matter because that's what he does until he can claim some victory/win, even if it's bullshit and anyone with any intelligence can see through it. His base will still eat it up and the sycophants in office and in right wing media will pretend it was genius.
I just don't understand the end game. Maybe he really is an anti-free trader. He was against TPP, but I thought that was just because Obama was negotiating it, and it was an easy populist position that even Bernie took. The first 24 hour trade war was pretty silly. But at least we knew he was demanding something, even though what he got was what Canada and Mexico already committed to doing. Is there an actual demand here? Or is the era of NA free trade legitimately over for the next few years?
PS - I should buy a tv today. Was meaning to get a new one and now feels like the right time..
He is aware that voters are generally myopic and most of this stuff will be forgotten in time (probably also why he floods the zone). He also knows voters just want to see him fixing problems, regardless if he is the one who created them. Sometimes I think thats his go to move and he knows it because a large swatch of US voters are ignorant to that stuff.
He is aware that voters are generally myopic and most of this stuff will be forgotten in time (probably also why he floods the zone). He also knows voters just want to see him fixing problems, regardless if he is the one who created them. Sometimes I think thats his go to move and he knows it because a large swatch of US voters are ignorant to that stuff.
I agree that he often breaks something, and then claims to fix it. It's definitely a go-to strategy.
But I don't think creating a recession and solving it is as easy to gaslight as his other tricks.
Yet another big, red warning signal about the coming recession.
Currently the Atlanta Fed is predicting -2.8% GDP 'growth'. That is awful. The Trump admin is going to claim it's loss of gov't job, but the numbers are already reported between gov't and private. So that delineation exists. And now, look at the private employment data...
This is hilarious lol - he's cutting tariffs for a month for cars coming in from Mexico and Canada. Just slinging shit at the wall and then trying to figure out how it benefits them most. Just fucking idiots everywhere lol
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
This is hilarious lol - he's cutting tariffs for a month for cars coming in from Mexico and Canada. Just slinging shit at the wall and then trying to figure out how it benefits them most. Just fucking idiots everywhere lol
And it sounds like they might make exceptions for agriculture pretty soon, which I'm guessing it Potash, because the US relies mostly on Canada to fertilize their crops.
I'm kind of wondering what Canada's next move is. At this rate Trump is going to carve out exceptions for everything that benefits the U.S., but it's also a pretty straightforward road map on where the pain points are, and Canada could implement export tariff's on that stuff to try and get all the tariff's removed.
Very odd. Sometimes he seems clever, which dastardly plans to make everyone cave, the next minute it feels like he's winging it.
0
brianlux
Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,800
Good article, thanks! Especially interesting is what the author says about AI influence on how all this crazy economic restructuring will shake out. Gonna be a bumpy road.
"Don't give in to the lies. Don't give in to the fear. Hold on to the truth. And to hope."
I read this a bit ago in the Financial Times. One of their people is making the same case. If this is really what he is doing, that is an awfully big risk he is taking, not just economically, but with his political future and his legacy. I have a hard time believing he is that strategic. I lean more into the argument that he really does like tariffs and believes the Gilded Age was the peak economic period, when the Robber Barons ran wild. He is a modern day Robber Baron, like Musk, Thiel and the others.
If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.
I read this a bit ago in the Financial Times. One of their people is making the same case. If this is really what he is doing, that is an awfully big risk he is taking, not just economically, but with his political future and his legacy. I have a hard time believing he is that strategic. I lean more into the argument that he really does like tariffs and believes the Gilded Age was the peak economic period, when the Robber Barons ran wild. He is a modern day Robber Baron, like Musk, Thiel and the others.
If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
I read this a bit ago in the Financial Times. One of their people is making the same case. If this is really what he is doing, that is an awfully big risk he is taking, not just economically, but with his political future and his legacy. I have a hard time believing he is that strategic. I lean more into the argument that he really does like tariffs and believes the Gilded Age was the peak economic period, when the Robber Barons ran wild. He is a modern day Robber Baron, like Musk, Thiel and the others.
If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.
then the depression......
So long as Trump doesn't destroy the current financial regulatory institutions, we are not really at risk for that. We have much better controls in place today than in 1929. There was no SEC, no OCC, not real oversight. But again, he is trying to destroy shit.
I read this a bit ago in the Financial Times. One of their people is making the same case. If this is really what he is doing, that is an awfully big risk he is taking, not just economically, but with his political future and his legacy. I have a hard time believing he is that strategic. I lean more into the argument that he really does like tariffs and believes the Gilded Age was the peak economic period, when the Robber Barons ran wild. He is a modern day Robber Baron, like Musk, Thiel and the others.
If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.
Absolutely. It's also one of those rare times where tinfoil hat people come remotely close to be right. There is something to be said to this because the people in charge are idiots & fascists, who happen to be billionaires. And when that's the case you have lazy people who think you can just shove a square peg into a round hole.
The biggest takeaway to me is the absolute long-term ramifications to international relations that are basically dead now. The rest of the globe will work with one another and go around us, which is the biggest loss at the end of the day imo.
Comments
More than $1 billion in fraud losses were routed through the company’s financial services between 2013 and 2022.
(Published Jan. 2024)
https://propub.li/3ELszOH
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
- gave $75M a to pro-Trump PAC
- gave $1M to Trump’s inauguration
- sponsored an inaugural party
- hired Trump’s campaign manager
- listed Trump’s meme coin
And now the investigation is closed.
These are called bribes.
https://popular.info/p/how-to-buy-your-way-out-of-a-federal
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
100% I am so proud or Pearl Jam for doing this!
I'm pretty convinced we are going to have a recession starting this year, preceded by a correction as one would expect. As an investor that uses E-trade, and I haven't sold a stock in years. If I sell to try to move my money to safer harbor, I will have to pay 15% capital gains, I would presume, just to hide the money.
So is there a formula used for a retail investor to determine at what decline in stock price makes it worth it to sell (prior to the drop)? It can't just be 15% since you only pay tax on the gains.
If I'm thinking about this wrong, please tell me. I'm only 52, so it's not like I couldn't ride out a recession either.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
1996; 9/28 New York
1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
2000: 10/17 Dallas
2003: 4/3 OKC
2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
2013: 11/16 OKC
2014: 10/8 Tulsa
2022: 9/20 OKC
2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
I decided to hold pat, since I can't really move money around without taking a tax event. The bet is that the market will fall less than 15% or so, and then rebound. Glad I am not looking to retire soon.
it is so hard to decipher what is just stupidity/chaos agent vs a plan to enrich himself.
PS - I should buy a tv today. Was meaning to get a new one and now feels like the right time..
But I don't think creating a recession and solving it is as easy to gaslight as his other tricks.
Currently the Atlanta Fed is predicting -2.8% GDP 'growth'. That is awful. The Trump admin is going to claim it's loss of gov't job, but the numbers are already reported between gov't and private. So that delineation exists. And now, look at the private employment data...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hiring-slowed-in-february-as-economic-uncertainty-created-hesitancy-to-add-jobs-last-month-adp-data-shows-135002874.html
https://open.substack.com/pub/kyla/p/an-orchestrated-recession-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4bfbw
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
If history repeats itself, the Progressive Era followed the Gilded Age, a total backlash to the oligarchy.
then the depression......
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
The biggest takeaway to me is the absolute long-term ramifications to international relations that are basically dead now. The rest of the globe will work with one another and go around us, which is the biggest loss at the end of the day imo.