Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

mickeyrat

Halifax2TheMax

mickeyrat said:

Put POOTWH in the WH and those same demographics would be agreeing that it’s the most beautiful and biggest economy and economic growth in the history of civilization, maybe even the universe. And no one ever has done it as well as POOTWH. Ever.

tempo_n_groove

Halifax2TheMax said:

The Juggler said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Fake news and if it were real, it ain’t flowing down from Wall Street to Mane Street. Don’t need no shit hole city help anyways. I’m surprised those who ventured down to Manhattan lived to tell the tail, what with all those drug smugglers and overflow scooter riding free cell phone using people running around! Anyone seen Ghouliani lately? Course not, he’s busy keeping the hordes of invaders at bay. Jeebus bless his heart.

The economy might be growing but the big corporations are not spending thats for sure.

The wall st bigs will not spend their dollars w the interest rates so high.  We all knew that was going to happen.

The American public is...

As are CEOs with their outlook.

Washington – Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. 

The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its historic average of 83 for the first time since 2022. CEO plans for capital investment and expectations for sales are up by double digits from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring ticked up modestly.  

“This quarter’s survey results underscore the resiliency of the U.S. economy and suggest accelerating economic activity over the next six months,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “To further strengthen the economy, the U.S. needs to double down on policies that spur domestic investment and bolster American competitiveness. The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is at the top of that list. The House passed this vital measure in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and we strongly encourage the Senate to swiftly follow suit.”

The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:

• Plans for hiring increased 5 points to a value of 60.
• Plans for capital investment increased 16 points to a value of 78.
• Expectations for sales increased 13 points to a value of 118.

In their second estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.1% growth for the year. This is up marginally from the 1.9% growth projected in their first estimate last quarter. 

In a special question posed this quarter, CEOs were asked whether they believe that government policies are undermining American free enterprise. Over 75% of CEOs answered “yes.” Of those who answered in the affirmative, 92% of CEOs cited excessive regulation and 63% cited overreaching antitrust actions as policies that are undermining or present a risk to the free enterprise system and the benefits it provides.

https://www.businessroundtable.org/media/ceo-economic-outlook-index/ceo-economic-outlook-index-q1-2024

Capital investments.  Buying up of more property... Only going to drive up prices even higher, why? Because they are in the business to make money.  That's my "sky is falling" outlook on that.

I will tell you that construction is easing up as I said before.  2025 looks to be shaping up great for construction though.

Hiring I like.  Thats good.

We still have all these empty building s in Manhattan.  They have never bounced back yet.  I wonder if they ever so?  Sure some we have refurbished get snatched up but, the older ones reman dormant.  Dormant and the people that own them are still rich, lol.

Halifax2TheMax

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

The Juggler said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Fake news and if it were real, it ain’t flowing down from Wall Street to Mane Street. Don’t need no shit hole city help anyways. I’m surprised those who ventured down to Manhattan lived to tell the tail, what with all those drug smugglers and overflow scooter riding free cell phone using people running around! Anyone seen Ghouliani lately? Course not, he’s busy keeping the hordes of invaders at bay. Jeebus bless his heart.

The economy might be growing but the big corporations are not spending thats for sure.

The wall st bigs will not spend their dollars w the interest rates so high.  We all knew that was going to happen.

The American public is...

As are CEOs with their outlook.

Washington – Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. 

The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its historic average of 83 for the first time since 2022. CEO plans for capital investment and expectations for sales are up by double digits from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring ticked up modestly.  

“This quarter’s survey results underscore the resiliency of the U.S. economy and suggest accelerating economic activity over the next six months,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “To further strengthen the economy, the U.S. needs to double down on policies that spur domestic investment and bolster American competitiveness. The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is at the top of that list. The House passed this vital measure in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and we strongly encourage the Senate to swiftly follow suit.”

The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:

• Plans for hiring increased 5 points to a value of 60.
• Plans for capital investment increased 16 points to a value of 78.
• Expectations for sales increased 13 points to a value of 118.

In their second estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.1% growth for the year. This is up marginally from the 1.9% growth projected in their first estimate last quarter. 

In a special question posed this quarter, CEOs were asked whether they believe that government policies are undermining American free enterprise. Over 75% of CEOs answered “yes.” Of those who answered in the affirmative, 92% of CEOs cited excessive regulation and 63% cited overreaching antitrust actions as policies that are undermining or present a risk to the free enterprise system and the benefits it provides.

https://www.businessroundtable.org/media/ceo-economic-outlook-index/ceo-economic-outlook-index-q1-2024

Capital investments.  Buying up of more property... Only going to drive up prices even higher, why? Because they are in the business to make money.  That's my "sky is falling" outlook on that.

I will tell you that construction is easing up as I said before.  2025 looks to be shaping up great for construction though.

Hiring I like.  Thats good.

We still have all these empty building s in Manhattan.  They have never bounced back yet.  I wonder if they ever so?  Sure some we have refurbished get snatched up but, the older ones reman dormant.  Dormant and the people that own them are still rich, lol.

Commercial real estate in NYC is not the economy. Everything I’m reading is that construction growth is in infrastructure, manufacturing and mining and the outlook is positive, residential housing be damned. CHIPS Act for high tech manufacturing, infrastructure spending due to the IIJA and another infusion due to environmental credits and initiatives to reduce carbon emissions in new and old infrastructure. Fuck you Brandon.

Highlights of the First Quarter 2024 Starts Forecast:

• Civil projects are anticipated to grow 12.7% in the US following strong 2023. The sector includes roads, bridges, power infrastructure, water & waste treatment projects among other types.
• Road building, the largest civil engineering sector, is expected to grow at a still healthy 5% in 2024, following double-digit growth last year.
• Nonresidential building is expected to retreat 2.4% this year, but activity levels remain high in important sectors like manufacturing.
• Inflation is expected to cool towards the 2% target, while The Federal Reserve appears poised to drop interest ratesin the year's second half.
• Modest growth of 7.9% in Canadian construction starts is forecast in 2024, before accelerating to 18.5% in 2025 as recessionary pressures subside. Civil engineering projects will drive new Canadian construction again in 2024.
• A recession no longer appears in the forecast but remains a risk as the economy endures the cumulative impact of past tightening in monetary policy, less accommodating lending conditions, and restrictive fiscal policy.

https://www.constructconnect.com/construction-economic-news/constructconnect-raises-2024-us-construction-starts-forecast-to-4.5

mickeyrat

https://apnews.com/article/conocophillips-marathon-oil-merger-buyout-d5e229e53da50fa00fe88f47e83c9720   ConocoPhillips buying Marathon Oil for $17.1 billion in all-stock deal as energy prices rise

 

ConocoPhillips buying Marathon Oil for $17.1 billion in all-stock deal as energy prices rise

By MICHELLE CHAPMAN

Today

ConocoPhillips is buying Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal valued at approximately $17.1 billion as energy prices rise and big oil companies reap massive profits.

The deal is valued at $22.5 billion when including $5.4 billion in debt.

Crude prices have jumped more than 12% this year and the cost for a barrel rose above $80 this week. Oil majors put up record profits after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and while those numbers have slipped, there has been a surge in mergers between energy companies flush with cash.

Chevron said last year that it was buying Hess in a $53 billion acquisition, though that deal faces headwinds. The company warned the buyout may be in jeopardy because it will require the approval of Exxon Mobil and a Chinese national oil company, which both hold rights to development of an oil field off the coast of the South American nation Guyana where Hess is a big player.

In July of last year, Exxon Mobil said that it would pay $4.9 billion for Denbury Resources, an oil and gas producer that has entered the business of capturing and storing carbon and stands to benefit from changes in U.S. climate policy. Three months later, Exxon announced the proposed acquisition of shale operator Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion.

All of the proposed acquisitions could face pushback from the U.S. which, under the Biden administration, has stepped up antitrust reviews for energy companies and other sectors as well, such as tech.

Federal Trade Commission, which enforces federal antitrust law, asked for additional information from Exxon and Pioneer about their proposed deal. The request is a step the agency takes when reviewing whether a merger could be anticompetitive under U.S. law. Pioneer disclosed the request in a filing in January.

As part of the ConocoPhillips transaction, Marathon Oil shareholders will receive 0.2550 shares of ConocoPhillips common stock for each share of Marathon Oil common stock that they own, the companies said Wednesday.

ConocoPhillips said Wednesday that the transaction will add highly desired acreage to its existing U.S. onshore portfolio.

“This acquisition of Marathon Oil further deepens our portfolio and fits within our financial framework, adding high-quality, low cost of supply inventory adjacent to our leading U.S. unconventional position,” ConocoPhillips Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance said in a prepared statement.

The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter. It still needs approval from Marathon Oil stockholders.

Separate from the transaction, ConocoPhillips said that it anticipates raising its ordinary dividend by 34% to 78 cents per share starting in the fourth quarter. The company said that once the Marathon Oil deal closes and assuming recent commodity prices, ConocoPhillips plans to buy back more than $7 billion in shares in the first full year. It plans to repurchase more than $20 billion in shares in the first three years.

Shares of ConocoPhillips declined 3.3% before the market open, while Marathon Oil Corp.'s stock rose more than 7%.

Halifax2TheMax

mickeyrat said:

https://apnews.com/article/conocophillips-marathon-oil-merger-buyout-d5e229e53da50fa00fe88f47e83c9720   ConocoPhillips buying Marathon Oil for $17.1 billion in all-stock deal as energy prices rise

 

ConocoPhillips buying Marathon Oil for $17.1 billion in all-stock deal as energy prices rise

By MICHELLE CHAPMAN

Today

ConocoPhillips is buying Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal valued at approximately $17.1 billion as energy prices rise and big oil companies reap massive profits.

The deal is valued at $22.5 billion when including $5.4 billion in debt.

Crude prices have jumped more than 12% this year and the cost for a barrel rose above $80 this week. Oil majors put up record profits after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and while those numbers have slipped, there has been a surge in mergers between energy companies flush with cash.

Chevron said last year that it was buying Hess in a $53 billion acquisition, though that deal faces headwinds. The company warned the buyout may be in jeopardy because it will require the approval of Exxon Mobil and a Chinese national oil company, which both hold rights to development of an oil field off the coast of the South American nation Guyana where Hess is a big player.

In July of last year, Exxon Mobil said that it would pay $4.9 billion for Denbury Resources, an oil and gas producer that has entered the business of capturing and storing carbon and stands to benefit from changes in U.S. climate policy. Three months later, Exxon announced the proposed acquisition of shale operator Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion.

All of the proposed acquisitions could face pushback from the U.S. which, under the Biden administration, has stepped up antitrust reviews for energy companies and other sectors as well, such as tech.

Federal Trade Commission, which enforces federal antitrust law, asked for additional information from Exxon and Pioneer about their proposed deal. The request is a step the agency takes when reviewing whether a merger could be anticompetitive under U.S. law. Pioneer disclosed the request in a filing in January.

As part of the ConocoPhillips transaction, Marathon Oil shareholders will receive 0.2550 shares of ConocoPhillips common stock for each share of Marathon Oil common stock that they own, the companies said Wednesday.

ConocoPhillips said Wednesday that the transaction will add highly desired acreage to its existing U.S. onshore portfolio.

“This acquisition of Marathon Oil further deepens our portfolio and fits within our financial framework, adding high-quality, low cost of supply inventory adjacent to our leading U.S. unconventional position,” ConocoPhillips Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance said in a prepared statement.

The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter. It still needs approval from Marathon Oil stockholders.

Separate from the transaction, ConocoPhillips said that it anticipates raising its ordinary dividend by 34% to 78 cents per share starting in the fourth quarter. The company said that once the Marathon Oil deal closes and assuming recent commodity prices, ConocoPhillips plans to buy back more than $7 billion in shares in the first full year. It plans to repurchase more than $20 billion in shares in the first three years.

Shares of ConocoPhillips declined 3.3% before the market open, while Marathon Oil Corp.'s stock rose more than 7%.

Everyone knows that Brandon’s and Hunter’s deals with Chiiiiiiiiina and Ukraine are the real reasons for high gas prices. Everyone.

mickeyrat

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-hiring-unemployment-economy-inflation-federal-reserve-d1d73005dbc40b081a555850a44e73d1   US employers added a robust 272,000 jobs in May in a sign of sustained economic health

 

US employers added a robust 272,000 jobs in May in a sign of sustained economic health

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

26 mins ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s employers added a strong 272,000 jobs in May, accelerating from April and a sign that companies are still confident enough in the economy to keep hiring despite persistently high interest rates.

Last month’s sizable job gain suggests that the economy is still growing steadily, propelled by consumer spending on travel, entertainment and other services. U.S. airports, for example, reported record traffic over the Memorial Day weekend. A healthy job market typically drives consumer spending, the economy’s principal fuel. Though some recent signs had raised concerns about economic weakness, May’s jobs report should help assuage those fears.

Still, Friday's report from the government included some signs of a potential slowdown. The unemployment rate, for example, edged up for a second straight month, to a still-low 4%, from 3.9%, ending a 27-month streak of unemployment below 4%. That streak had matched the longest such run since the late 1960s.

President Joe Biden is still likely to point to Friday's jobs report as a sign of the economy’s robust health under his administration. The presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump has focused his criticism of Biden’s economic policies on the surge in inflation, which polls show still weighs heavily in voters’ assessment of the economy.

Hourly paychecks accelerated last month, a welcome gain for workers though one that could contribute to stickier inflation. Hourly wages rose 4.1% from a year ago, faster than the rate of inflation and more quickly than in April. Some companies may raise their prices to offset their higher wage costs.

The Federal Reserve’s inflation fighters would like to see the economy cool a bit as they consider when to begin cutting their benchmark rate. The Fed sharply raised interest rates in 2022 and 2023 after the vigorous recovery from the pandemic recession ignited the worst inflation in 40 years.

Friday's report will likely underscore Fed officials' intention to delay any cuts to their benchmark interest rate while they monitor inflation and economic data. Though Chair Jerome Powell has said he expects inflation to continue to ease, he has stressed that the Fed's policymakers need “greater confidence” that inflation will fall back to their 2% target before they would reduce borrowing costs. Annual inflation has declined to 2.7% by the Fed’s preferred measure, from a peak above 7% in 2022.

“This report is going to complicate the Fed’s job," said Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter. “No one’s getting those very clear signals that they were hoping for that a rate cut is appropriate in July or September.”

Last month's hiring occurred broadly across most of the economy. But job growth was particularly robust in health care, which added 84,000 jobs, and restaurants, hotels, and entertainment providers, which gained 42,000.

Governments, particularly local governments, added 43,000 positions. Professional and business services, which includes managers, architects and information technology, grew by 33,000.

One potential sign of weakness in the May employment report was a drop in the proportion of Americans who either have a job or are looking for one; it fell from 62.7% to 62.5%. Most of that drop occurred among people 55 and over, many of whom are baby boomers who are retiring.

A surge in immigration in the past three years has boosted the size of the U.S. workforce and has been a key driver of the healthy pace of job growth. (Economists have said it isn't clear whether the government's jobs report is picking up all those gains, particularly among unauthorized immigrants.)

When the Fed began aggressively raising rates, most economists had expected the resulting jump in borrowing costs to drive unemployment to painfully high levels and cause a recession. Yet the job market has proved more durable than almost anyone had predicted. Even so, Americans remain generally frustrated by high prices, a continuing source of discontent that could imperil Biden’s re-election bid.

The economy expanded at just a 1.3% annual rate in the first three months of this year, the government said last week, a sharp pullback from the 3.4% pace in last year’s final quarter. Much of the slowdown, though, reflected reduced stockpiling by businesses and other volatile factors, while consumer and business spending made clear that demand remained solid.

In April, though, consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, declined. That raised concern among economists that elevated inflation and interest rates are increasingly pressuring some consumers, particularly younger and lower-income households.

A key reason why the economy is still producing solid net job growth is that layoffs remain at historic lows. Just 1.5 million people lost jobs in April. That’s the lowest monthly figure on record — outside of the peak pandemic period — in data going back 24 years. After struggling to fill jobs for several years, most employers are reluctant to lay off workers.

Halifax2TheMax

Sure, shut the border down and deport them all! Every. Last. One. Of. Them! From above:

One potential sign of weakness in the May employment report was a drop in the proportion of Americans who either have a job or are looking for one; it fell from 62.7% to 62.5%. Most of that drop occurred among people 55 and over, many of whom are baby boomers who are retiring.

A surge in immigration in the past three years has boosted the size of the U.S. workforce and has been a key driver of the healthy pace of job growth. (Economists have said it isn't clear whether the government's jobs report is picking up all those gains, particularly among unauthorized immigrants.)

tempo_n_groove

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

The Juggler said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Fake news and if it were real, it ain’t flowing down from Wall Street to Mane Street. Don’t need no shit hole city help anyways. I’m surprised those who ventured down to Manhattan lived to tell the tail, what with all those drug smugglers and overflow scooter riding free cell phone using people running around! Anyone seen Ghouliani lately? Course not, he’s busy keeping the hordes of invaders at bay. Jeebus bless his heart.

The economy might be growing but the big corporations are not spending thats for sure.

The wall st bigs will not spend their dollars w the interest rates so high.  We all knew that was going to happen.

The American public is...

As are CEOs with their outlook.

Washington – Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. 

The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its historic average of 83 for the first time since 2022. CEO plans for capital investment and expectations for sales are up by double digits from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring ticked up modestly.  

“This quarter’s survey results underscore the resiliency of the U.S. economy and suggest accelerating economic activity over the next six months,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “To further strengthen the economy, the U.S. needs to double down on policies that spur domestic investment and bolster American competitiveness. The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is at the top of that list. The House passed this vital measure in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and we strongly encourage the Senate to swiftly follow suit.”

The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:

• Plans for hiring increased 5 points to a value of 60.
• Plans for capital investment increased 16 points to a value of 78.
• Expectations for sales increased 13 points to a value of 118.

In their second estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.1% growth for the year. This is up marginally from the 1.9% growth projected in their first estimate last quarter. 

In a special question posed this quarter, CEOs were asked whether they believe that government policies are undermining American free enterprise. Over 75% of CEOs answered “yes.” Of those who answered in the affirmative, 92% of CEOs cited excessive regulation and 63% cited overreaching antitrust actions as policies that are undermining or present a risk to the free enterprise system and the benefits it provides.

https://www.businessroundtable.org/media/ceo-economic-outlook-index/ceo-economic-outlook-index-q1-2024

Capital investments.  Buying up of more property... Only going to drive up prices even higher, why? Because they are in the business to make money.  That's my "sky is falling" outlook on that.

I will tell you that construction is easing up as I said before.  2025 looks to be shaping up great for construction though.

Hiring I like.  Thats good.

We still have all these empty building s in Manhattan.  They have never bounced back yet.  I wonder if they ever so?  Sure some we have refurbished get snatched up but, the older ones reman dormant.  Dormant and the people that own them are still rich, lol.

Commercial real estate in NYC is not the economy. Everything I’m reading is that construction growth is in infrastructure, manufacturing and mining and the outlook is positive, residential housing be damned. CHIPS Act for high tech manufacturing, infrastructure spending due to the IIJA and another infusion due to environmental credits and initiatives to reduce carbon emissions in new and old infrastructure. Fuck you Brandon.

Highlights of the First Quarter 2024 Starts Forecast:

• Civil projects are anticipated to grow 12.7% in the US following strong 2023. The sector includes roads, bridges, power infrastructure, water & waste treatment projects among other types.
• Road building, the largest civil engineering sector, is expected to grow at a still healthy 5% in 2024, following double-digit growth last year.
• Nonresidential building is expected to retreat 2.4% this year, but activity levels remain high in important sectors like manufacturing.
• Inflation is expected to cool towards the 2% target, while The Federal Reserve appears poised to drop interest ratesin the year's second half.
• Modest growth of 7.9% in Canadian construction starts is forecast in 2024, before accelerating to 18.5% in 2025 as recessionary pressures subside. Civil engineering projects will drive new Canadian construction again in 2024.
• A recession no longer appears in the forecast but remains a risk as the economy endures the cumulative impact of past tightening in monetary policy, less accommodating lending conditions, and restrictive fiscal policy.

https://www.constructconnect.com/construction-economic-news/constructconnect-raises-2024-us-construction-starts-forecast-to-4.5

Commercial real-estate is not the economy but its a barometer just like watching stock prices of Caterpillar to gauge construction around the world.

We have huge infrastructure ventures happening in the next few years.  I'm sure you read that Buttigieg came and gave the city/state 10 billion for it.  Mass transit will be getting a major push here.  I know I posted about this a few months ago.

The last one on your list will tie into homebuilding and remodeling of both private and commercial buildings. Lending led us to the previous recession.  Stable jobs reporting should make that ease the lending though(hopefully).

I share what I see and read here in NY as the bigger citys will mimic the other ones in time.

I need to look it up but is there any forecasts for when the chip factories (semiconductors) come online and their expected impact for the US and the world?

mickeyrat

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

The Juggler said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Fake news and if it were real, it ain’t flowing down from Wall Street to Mane Street. Don’t need no shit hole city help anyways. I’m surprised those who ventured down to Manhattan lived to tell the tail, what with all those drug smugglers and overflow scooter riding free cell phone using people running around! Anyone seen Ghouliani lately? Course not, he’s busy keeping the hordes of invaders at bay. Jeebus bless his heart.

The economy might be growing but the big corporations are not spending thats for sure.

The wall st bigs will not spend their dollars w the interest rates so high.  We all knew that was going to happen.

The American public is...

As are CEOs with their outlook.

Washington – Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. 

The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its historic average of 83 for the first time since 2022. CEO plans for capital investment and expectations for sales are up by double digits from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring ticked up modestly.  

“This quarter’s survey results underscore the resiliency of the U.S. economy and suggest accelerating economic activity over the next six months,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “To further strengthen the economy, the U.S. needs to double down on policies that spur domestic investment and bolster American competitiveness. The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is at the top of that list. The House passed this vital measure in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and we strongly encourage the Senate to swiftly follow suit.”

The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:

• Plans for hiring increased 5 points to a value of 60.
• Plans for capital investment increased 16 points to a value of 78.
• Expectations for sales increased 13 points to a value of 118.

In their second estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.1% growth for the year. This is up marginally from the 1.9% growth projected in their first estimate last quarter. 

In a special question posed this quarter, CEOs were asked whether they believe that government policies are undermining American free enterprise. Over 75% of CEOs answered “yes.” Of those who answered in the affirmative, 92% of CEOs cited excessive regulation and 63% cited overreaching antitrust actions as policies that are undermining or present a risk to the free enterprise system and the benefits it provides.

https://www.businessroundtable.org/media/ceo-economic-outlook-index/ceo-economic-outlook-index-q1-2024

Capital investments.  Buying up of more property... Only going to drive up prices even higher, why? Because they are in the business to make money.  That's my "sky is falling" outlook on that.

I will tell you that construction is easing up as I said before.  2025 looks to be shaping up great for construction though.

Hiring I like.  Thats good.

We still have all these empty building s in Manhattan.  They have never bounced back yet.  I wonder if they ever so?  Sure some we have refurbished get snatched up but, the older ones reman dormant.  Dormant and the people that own them are still rich, lol.

Commercial real estate in NYC is not the economy. Everything I’m reading is that construction growth is in infrastructure, manufacturing and mining and the outlook is positive, residential housing be damned. CHIPS Act for high tech manufacturing, infrastructure spending due to the IIJA and another infusion due to environmental credits and initiatives to reduce carbon emissions in new and old infrastructure. Fuck you Brandon.

Highlights of the First Quarter 2024 Starts Forecast:

• Civil projects are anticipated to grow 12.7% in the US following strong 2023. The sector includes roads, bridges, power infrastructure, water & waste treatment projects among other types.
• Road building, the largest civil engineering sector, is expected to grow at a still healthy 5% in 2024, following double-digit growth last year.
• Nonresidential building is expected to retreat 2.4% this year, but activity levels remain high in important sectors like manufacturing.
• Inflation is expected to cool towards the 2% target, while The Federal Reserve appears poised to drop interest ratesin the year's second half.
• Modest growth of 7.9% in Canadian construction starts is forecast in 2024, before accelerating to 18.5% in 2025 as recessionary pressures subside. Civil engineering projects will drive new Canadian construction again in 2024.
• A recession no longer appears in the forecast but remains a risk as the economy endures the cumulative impact of past tightening in monetary policy, less accommodating lending conditions, and restrictive fiscal policy.

https://www.constructconnect.com/construction-economic-news/constructconnect-raises-2024-us-construction-starts-forecast-to-4.5

Commercial real-estate is not the economy but its a barometer just like watching stock prices of Caterpillar to gauge construction around the world.

We have huge infrastructure ventures happening in the next few years.  I'm sure you read that Buttigieg came and gave the city/state 10 billion for it.  Mass transit will be getting a major push here.  I know I posted about this a few months ago.

The last one on your list will tie into homebuilding and remodeling of both private and commercial buildings. Lending led us to the previous recession.  Stable jobs reporting should make that ease the lending though(hopefully).

I share what I see and read here in NY as the bigger citys will mimic the other ones in time.

I need to look it up but is there any forecasts for when the chip factories (semiconductors) come online and their expected impact for the US and the world?

intel in ohio has experienced delays. was projected for partial operations  for 2025 I think.  now its pushed back to 2027-28.

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-ohio.html

progress is happening though. theres been someajor oversize components barged up the ohio river to near portsmouth and trucked to licking county where the plant will be located.

honda has made huge progress for battery plant south of columbus. its under roof at this stage of construction.

https://lgeshonda.com/

tempo_n_groove

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

The Juggler said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Fake news and if it were real, it ain’t flowing down from Wall Street to Mane Street. Don’t need no shit hole city help anyways. I’m surprised those who ventured down to Manhattan lived to tell the tail, what with all those drug smugglers and overflow scooter riding free cell phone using people running around! Anyone seen Ghouliani lately? Course not, he’s busy keeping the hordes of invaders at bay. Jeebus bless his heart.

The economy might be growing but the big corporations are not spending thats for sure.

The wall st bigs will not spend their dollars w the interest rates so high.  We all knew that was going to happen.

The American public is...

As are CEOs with their outlook.

Washington – Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. 

The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its historic average of 83 for the first time since 2022. CEO plans for capital investment and expectations for sales are up by double digits from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring ticked up modestly.  

“This quarter’s survey results underscore the resiliency of the U.S. economy and suggest accelerating economic activity over the next six months,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “To further strengthen the economy, the U.S. needs to double down on policies that spur domestic investment and bolster American competitiveness. The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is at the top of that list. The House passed this vital measure in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and we strongly encourage the Senate to swiftly follow suit.”

The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:

• Plans for hiring increased 5 points to a value of 60.
• Plans for capital investment increased 16 points to a value of 78.
• Expectations for sales increased 13 points to a value of 118.

In their second estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.1% growth for the year. This is up marginally from the 1.9% growth projected in their first estimate last quarter. 

In a special question posed this quarter, CEOs were asked whether they believe that government policies are undermining American free enterprise. Over 75% of CEOs answered “yes.” Of those who answered in the affirmative, 92% of CEOs cited excessive regulation and 63% cited overreaching antitrust actions as policies that are undermining or present a risk to the free enterprise system and the benefits it provides.

https://www.businessroundtable.org/media/ceo-economic-outlook-index/ceo-economic-outlook-index-q1-2024

Capital investments.  Buying up of more property... Only going to drive up prices even higher, why? Because they are in the business to make money.  That's my "sky is falling" outlook on that.

I will tell you that construction is easing up as I said before.  2025 looks to be shaping up great for construction though.

Hiring I like.  Thats good.

We still have all these empty building s in Manhattan.  They have never bounced back yet.  I wonder if they ever so?  Sure some we have refurbished get snatched up but, the older ones reman dormant.  Dormant and the people that own them are still rich, lol.

Commercial real estate in NYC is not the economy. Everything I’m reading is that construction growth is in infrastructure, manufacturing and mining and the outlook is positive, residential housing be damned. CHIPS Act for high tech manufacturing, infrastructure spending due to the IIJA and another infusion due to environmental credits and initiatives to reduce carbon emissions in new and old infrastructure. Fuck you Brandon.

Highlights of the First Quarter 2024 Starts Forecast:

• Civil projects are anticipated to grow 12.7% in the US following strong 2023. The sector includes roads, bridges, power infrastructure, water & waste treatment projects among other types.
• Road building, the largest civil engineering sector, is expected to grow at a still healthy 5% in 2024, following double-digit growth last year.
• Nonresidential building is expected to retreat 2.4% this year, but activity levels remain high in important sectors like manufacturing.
• Inflation is expected to cool towards the 2% target, while The Federal Reserve appears poised to drop interest ratesin the year's second half.
• Modest growth of 7.9% in Canadian construction starts is forecast in 2024, before accelerating to 18.5% in 2025 as recessionary pressures subside. Civil engineering projects will drive new Canadian construction again in 2024.
• A recession no longer appears in the forecast but remains a risk as the economy endures the cumulative impact of past tightening in monetary policy, less accommodating lending conditions, and restrictive fiscal policy.

https://www.constructconnect.com/construction-economic-news/constructconnect-raises-2024-us-construction-starts-forecast-to-4.5

Commercial real-estate is not the economy but its a barometer just like watching stock prices of Caterpillar to gauge construction around the world.

We have huge infrastructure ventures happening in the next few years.  I'm sure you read that Buttigieg came and gave the city/state 10 billion for it.  Mass transit will be getting a major push here.  I know I posted about this a few months ago.

The last one on your list will tie into homebuilding and remodeling of both private and commercial buildings. Lending led us to the previous recession.  Stable jobs reporting should make that ease the lending though(hopefully).

I share what I see and read here in NY as the bigger citys will mimic the other ones in time.

I need to look it up but is there any forecasts for when the chip factories (semiconductors) come online and their expected impact for the US and the world?

intel in ohio has experienced delays. was projected for partial operations  for 2025 I think.  now its pushed back to 2027-28.

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-ohio.html

progress is happening though. theres been someajor oversize components barged up the ohio river to near portsmouth and trucked to licking county where the plant will be located.

honda has made huge progress for battery plant south of columbus. its under roof at this stage of construction.

https://lgeshonda.com/

Thanks, you made my rabbit hole a little smaller, lol.  I noticed that newer plants are being made in China too.  I'm sure they'd love to flood the market.

I'm hoping that intel works out as they are building quite a few plants. Texas Instruments too.

mickeyrat

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

The Juggler said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Fake news and if it were real, it ain’t flowing down from Wall Street to Mane Street. Don’t need no shit hole city help anyways. I’m surprised those who ventured down to Manhattan lived to tell the tail, what with all those drug smugglers and overflow scooter riding free cell phone using people running around! Anyone seen Ghouliani lately? Course not, he’s busy keeping the hordes of invaders at bay. Jeebus bless his heart.

The economy might be growing but the big corporations are not spending thats for sure.

The wall st bigs will not spend their dollars w the interest rates so high.  We all knew that was going to happen.

The American public is...

As are CEOs with their outlook.

Washington – Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. 

The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its historic average of 83 for the first time since 2022. CEO plans for capital investment and expectations for sales are up by double digits from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring ticked up modestly.  

“This quarter’s survey results underscore the resiliency of the U.S. economy and suggest accelerating economic activity over the next six months,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “To further strengthen the economy, the U.S. needs to double down on policies that spur domestic investment and bolster American competitiveness. The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is at the top of that list. The House passed this vital measure in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and we strongly encourage the Senate to swiftly follow suit.”

The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:

• Plans for hiring increased 5 points to a value of 60.
• Plans for capital investment increased 16 points to a value of 78.
• Expectations for sales increased 13 points to a value of 118.

In their second estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.1% growth for the year. This is up marginally from the 1.9% growth projected in their first estimate last quarter. 

In a special question posed this quarter, CEOs were asked whether they believe that government policies are undermining American free enterprise. Over 75% of CEOs answered “yes.” Of those who answered in the affirmative, 92% of CEOs cited excessive regulation and 63% cited overreaching antitrust actions as policies that are undermining or present a risk to the free enterprise system and the benefits it provides.

https://www.businessroundtable.org/media/ceo-economic-outlook-index/ceo-economic-outlook-index-q1-2024

Capital investments.  Buying up of more property... Only going to drive up prices even higher, why? Because they are in the business to make money.  That's my "sky is falling" outlook on that.

I will tell you that construction is easing up as I said before.  2025 looks to be shaping up great for construction though.

Hiring I like.  Thats good.

We still have all these empty building s in Manhattan.  They have never bounced back yet.  I wonder if they ever so?  Sure some we have refurbished get snatched up but, the older ones reman dormant.  Dormant and the people that own them are still rich, lol.

Commercial real estate in NYC is not the economy. Everything I’m reading is that construction growth is in infrastructure, manufacturing and mining and the outlook is positive, residential housing be damned. CHIPS Act for high tech manufacturing, infrastructure spending due to the IIJA and another infusion due to environmental credits and initiatives to reduce carbon emissions in new and old infrastructure. Fuck you Brandon.

Highlights of the First Quarter 2024 Starts Forecast:

• Civil projects are anticipated to grow 12.7% in the US following strong 2023. The sector includes roads, bridges, power infrastructure, water & waste treatment projects among other types.
• Road building, the largest civil engineering sector, is expected to grow at a still healthy 5% in 2024, following double-digit growth last year.
• Nonresidential building is expected to retreat 2.4% this year, but activity levels remain high in important sectors like manufacturing.
• Inflation is expected to cool towards the 2% target, while The Federal Reserve appears poised to drop interest ratesin the year's second half.
• Modest growth of 7.9% in Canadian construction starts is forecast in 2024, before accelerating to 18.5% in 2025 as recessionary pressures subside. Civil engineering projects will drive new Canadian construction again in 2024.
• A recession no longer appears in the forecast but remains a risk as the economy endures the cumulative impact of past tightening in monetary policy, less accommodating lending conditions, and restrictive fiscal policy.

https://www.constructconnect.com/construction-economic-news/constructconnect-raises-2024-us-construction-starts-forecast-to-4.5

Commercial real-estate is not the economy but its a barometer just like watching stock prices of Caterpillar to gauge construction around the world.

We have huge infrastructure ventures happening in the next few years.  I'm sure you read that Buttigieg came and gave the city/state 10 billion for it.  Mass transit will be getting a major push here.  I know I posted about this a few months ago.

The last one on your list will tie into homebuilding and remodeling of both private and commercial buildings. Lending led us to the previous recession.  Stable jobs reporting should make that ease the lending though(hopefully).

I share what I see and read here in NY as the bigger citys will mimic the other ones in time.

I need to look it up but is there any forecasts for when the chip factories (semiconductors) come online and their expected impact for the US and the world?

intel in ohio has experienced delays. was projected for partial operations  for 2025 I think.  now its pushed back to 2027-28.

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-ohio.html

progress is happening though. theres been someajor oversize components barged up the ohio river to near portsmouth and trucked to licking county where the plant will be located.

honda has made huge progress for battery plant south of columbus. its under roof at this stage of construction.

https://lgeshonda.com/

Thanks, you made my rabbit hole a little smaller, lol.  I noticed that newer plants are being made in China too.  I'm sure they'd love to flood the market.

I'm hoping that intel works out as they are building quite a few plants. Texas Instruments too.

massive by truck. 900k
https://www.transportation.ohio.gov/about-us/news/statewide/twelfth-super-load-heading-to-new-albany?fbclid=IwY2xjawDUqntleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHYfLUl9prnGSQDHA-3doTvJTpk39hIYu9y4le9KXjdrNrYAi2BVHeNYNnA_aem_AUOLpqiBgM7ei8_uQjJdj1J8z7anO9Oos97efY42sa5hPy-5teKaGc1N3Xk4AKMlZFDs_uDvb36PAAjFe7uJPnYT

tempo_n_groove

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

The Juggler said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Fake news and if it were real, it ain’t flowing down from Wall Street to Mane Street. Don’t need no shit hole city help anyways. I’m surprised those who ventured down to Manhattan lived to tell the tail, what with all those drug smugglers and overflow scooter riding free cell phone using people running around! Anyone seen Ghouliani lately? Course not, he’s busy keeping the hordes of invaders at bay. Jeebus bless his heart.

The economy might be growing but the big corporations are not spending thats for sure.

The wall st bigs will not spend their dollars w the interest rates so high.  We all knew that was going to happen.

The American public is...

As are CEOs with their outlook.

Washington – Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. 

The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its historic average of 83 for the first time since 2022. CEO plans for capital investment and expectations for sales are up by double digits from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring ticked up modestly.  

“This quarter’s survey results underscore the resiliency of the U.S. economy and suggest accelerating economic activity over the next six months,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “To further strengthen the economy, the U.S. needs to double down on policies that spur domestic investment and bolster American competitiveness. The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is at the top of that list. The House passed this vital measure in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and we strongly encourage the Senate to swiftly follow suit.”

The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:

• Plans for hiring increased 5 points to a value of 60.
• Plans for capital investment increased 16 points to a value of 78.
• Expectations for sales increased 13 points to a value of 118.

In their second estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.1% growth for the year. This is up marginally from the 1.9% growth projected in their first estimate last quarter. 

In a special question posed this quarter, CEOs were asked whether they believe that government policies are undermining American free enterprise. Over 75% of CEOs answered “yes.” Of those who answered in the affirmative, 92% of CEOs cited excessive regulation and 63% cited overreaching antitrust actions as policies that are undermining or present a risk to the free enterprise system and the benefits it provides.

https://www.businessroundtable.org/media/ceo-economic-outlook-index/ceo-economic-outlook-index-q1-2024

Capital investments.  Buying up of more property... Only going to drive up prices even higher, why? Because they are in the business to make money.  That's my "sky is falling" outlook on that.

I will tell you that construction is easing up as I said before.  2025 looks to be shaping up great for construction though.

Hiring I like.  Thats good.

We still have all these empty building s in Manhattan.  They have never bounced back yet.  I wonder if they ever so?  Sure some we have refurbished get snatched up but, the older ones reman dormant.  Dormant and the people that own them are still rich, lol.

Commercial real estate in NYC is not the economy. Everything I’m reading is that construction growth is in infrastructure, manufacturing and mining and the outlook is positive, residential housing be damned. CHIPS Act for high tech manufacturing, infrastructure spending due to the IIJA and another infusion due to environmental credits and initiatives to reduce carbon emissions in new and old infrastructure. Fuck you Brandon.

Highlights of the First Quarter 2024 Starts Forecast:

• Civil projects are anticipated to grow 12.7% in the US following strong 2023. The sector includes roads, bridges, power infrastructure, water & waste treatment projects among other types.
• Road building, the largest civil engineering sector, is expected to grow at a still healthy 5% in 2024, following double-digit growth last year.
• Nonresidential building is expected to retreat 2.4% this year, but activity levels remain high in important sectors like manufacturing.
• Inflation is expected to cool towards the 2% target, while The Federal Reserve appears poised to drop interest ratesin the year's second half.
• Modest growth of 7.9% in Canadian construction starts is forecast in 2024, before accelerating to 18.5% in 2025 as recessionary pressures subside. Civil engineering projects will drive new Canadian construction again in 2024.
• A recession no longer appears in the forecast but remains a risk as the economy endures the cumulative impact of past tightening in monetary policy, less accommodating lending conditions, and restrictive fiscal policy.

https://www.constructconnect.com/construction-economic-news/constructconnect-raises-2024-us-construction-starts-forecast-to-4.5

Commercial real-estate is not the economy but its a barometer just like watching stock prices of Caterpillar to gauge construction around the world.

We have huge infrastructure ventures happening in the next few years.  I'm sure you read that Buttigieg came and gave the city/state 10 billion for it.  Mass transit will be getting a major push here.  I know I posted about this a few months ago.

The last one on your list will tie into homebuilding and remodeling of both private and commercial buildings. Lending led us to the previous recession.  Stable jobs reporting should make that ease the lending though(hopefully).

I share what I see and read here in NY as the bigger citys will mimic the other ones in time.

I need to look it up but is there any forecasts for when the chip factories (semiconductors) come online and their expected impact for the US and the world?

intel in ohio has experienced delays. was projected for partial operations  for 2025 I think.  now its pushed back to 2027-28.

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-ohio.html

progress is happening though. theres been someajor oversize components barged up the ohio river to near portsmouth and trucked to licking county where the plant will be located.

honda has made huge progress for battery plant south of columbus. its under roof at this stage of construction.

https://lgeshonda.com/

Thanks, you made my rabbit hole a little smaller, lol.  I noticed that newer plants are being made in China too.  I'm sure they'd love to flood the market.

I'm hoping that intel works out as they are building quite a few plants. Texas Instruments too.

massive by truck. 900k
https://www.transportation.ohio.gov/about-us/news/statewide/twelfth-super-load-heading-to-new-albany?fbclid=IwY2xjawDUqntleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHYfLUl9prnGSQDHA-3doTvJTpk39hIYu9y4le9KXjdrNrYAi2BVHeNYNnA_aem_AUOLpqiBgM7ei8_uQjJdj1J8z7anO9Oos97efY42sa5hPy-5teKaGc1N3Xk4AKMlZFDs_uDvb36PAAjFe7uJPnYT

I've seen large precast loads and steel on trucks.  Never something this big before. Wow.

mickeyrat

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

The Juggler said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Fake news and if it were real, it ain’t flowing down from Wall Street to Mane Street. Don’t need no shit hole city help anyways. I’m surprised those who ventured down to Manhattan lived to tell the tail, what with all those drug smugglers and overflow scooter riding free cell phone using people running around! Anyone seen Ghouliani lately? Course not, he’s busy keeping the hordes of invaders at bay. Jeebus bless his heart.

The economy might be growing but the big corporations are not spending thats for sure.

The wall st bigs will not spend their dollars w the interest rates so high.  We all knew that was going to happen.

The American public is...

As are CEOs with their outlook.

Washington – Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. 

The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its historic average of 83 for the first time since 2022. CEO plans for capital investment and expectations for sales are up by double digits from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring ticked up modestly.  

“This quarter’s survey results underscore the resiliency of the U.S. economy and suggest accelerating economic activity over the next six months,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “To further strengthen the economy, the U.S. needs to double down on policies that spur domestic investment and bolster American competitiveness. The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is at the top of that list. The House passed this vital measure in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and we strongly encourage the Senate to swiftly follow suit.”

The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:

• Plans for hiring increased 5 points to a value of 60.
• Plans for capital investment increased 16 points to a value of 78.
• Expectations for sales increased 13 points to a value of 118.

In their second estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.1% growth for the year. This is up marginally from the 1.9% growth projected in their first estimate last quarter. 

In a special question posed this quarter, CEOs were asked whether they believe that government policies are undermining American free enterprise. Over 75% of CEOs answered “yes.” Of those who answered in the affirmative, 92% of CEOs cited excessive regulation and 63% cited overreaching antitrust actions as policies that are undermining or present a risk to the free enterprise system and the benefits it provides.

https://www.businessroundtable.org/media/ceo-economic-outlook-index/ceo-economic-outlook-index-q1-2024

Capital investments.  Buying up of more property... Only going to drive up prices even higher, why? Because they are in the business to make money.  That's my "sky is falling" outlook on that.

I will tell you that construction is easing up as I said before.  2025 looks to be shaping up great for construction though.

Hiring I like.  Thats good.

We still have all these empty building s in Manhattan.  They have never bounced back yet.  I wonder if they ever so?  Sure some we have refurbished get snatched up but, the older ones reman dormant.  Dormant and the people that own them are still rich, lol.

Commercial real estate in NYC is not the economy. Everything I’m reading is that construction growth is in infrastructure, manufacturing and mining and the outlook is positive, residential housing be damned. CHIPS Act for high tech manufacturing, infrastructure spending due to the IIJA and another infusion due to environmental credits and initiatives to reduce carbon emissions in new and old infrastructure. Fuck you Brandon.

Highlights of the First Quarter 2024 Starts Forecast:

• Civil projects are anticipated to grow 12.7% in the US following strong 2023. The sector includes roads, bridges, power infrastructure, water & waste treatment projects among other types.
• Road building, the largest civil engineering sector, is expected to grow at a still healthy 5% in 2024, following double-digit growth last year.
• Nonresidential building is expected to retreat 2.4% this year, but activity levels remain high in important sectors like manufacturing.
• Inflation is expected to cool towards the 2% target, while The Federal Reserve appears poised to drop interest ratesin the year's second half.
• Modest growth of 7.9% in Canadian construction starts is forecast in 2024, before accelerating to 18.5% in 2025 as recessionary pressures subside. Civil engineering projects will drive new Canadian construction again in 2024.
• A recession no longer appears in the forecast but remains a risk as the economy endures the cumulative impact of past tightening in monetary policy, less accommodating lending conditions, and restrictive fiscal policy.

https://www.constructconnect.com/construction-economic-news/constructconnect-raises-2024-us-construction-starts-forecast-to-4.5

Commercial real-estate is not the economy but its a barometer just like watching stock prices of Caterpillar to gauge construction around the world.

We have huge infrastructure ventures happening in the next few years.  I'm sure you read that Buttigieg came and gave the city/state 10 billion for it.  Mass transit will be getting a major push here.  I know I posted about this a few months ago.

The last one on your list will tie into homebuilding and remodeling of both private and commercial buildings. Lending led us to the previous recession.  Stable jobs reporting should make that ease the lending though(hopefully).

I share what I see and read here in NY as the bigger citys will mimic the other ones in time.

I need to look it up but is there any forecasts for when the chip factories (semiconductors) come online and their expected impact for the US and the world?

intel in ohio has experienced delays. was projected for partial operations  for 2025 I think.  now its pushed back to 2027-28.

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-ohio.html

progress is happening though. theres been someajor oversize components barged up the ohio river to near portsmouth and trucked to licking county where the plant will be located.

honda has made huge progress for battery plant south of columbus. its under roof at this stage of construction.

https://lgeshonda.com/

Thanks, you made my rabbit hole a little smaller, lol.  I noticed that newer plants are being made in China too.  I'm sure they'd love to flood the market.

I'm hoping that intel works out as they are building quite a few plants. Texas Instruments too.

massive by truck. 900k
https://www.transportation.ohio.gov/about-us/news/statewide/twelfth-super-load-heading-to-new-albany?fbclid=IwY2xjawDUqntleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHYfLUl9prnGSQDHA-3doTvJTpk39hIYu9y4le9KXjdrNrYAi2BVHeNYNnA_aem_AUOLpqiBgM7ei8_uQjJdj1J8z7anO9Oos97efY42sa5hPy-5teKaGc1N3Xk4AKMlZFDs_uDvb36PAAjFe7uJPnYT

I've seen large precast loads and steel on trucks.  Never something this big before. Wow.

that 916k is just the product. trailer and associated equipment adds roughly 400k more

tempo_n_groove

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mickeyrat said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

The Juggler said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Fake news and if it were real, it ain’t flowing down from Wall Street to Mane Street. Don’t need no shit hole city help anyways. I’m surprised those who ventured down to Manhattan lived to tell the tail, what with all those drug smugglers and overflow scooter riding free cell phone using people running around! Anyone seen Ghouliani lately? Course not, he’s busy keeping the hordes of invaders at bay. Jeebus bless his heart.

The economy might be growing but the big corporations are not spending thats for sure.

The wall st bigs will not spend their dollars w the interest rates so high.  We all knew that was going to happen.

The American public is...

As are CEOs with their outlook.

Washington – Business Roundtable today released its Q1 2024 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months. 

The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its historic average of 83 for the first time since 2022. CEO plans for capital investment and expectations for sales are up by double digits from last quarter. Additionally, plans for hiring ticked up modestly.  

“This quarter’s survey results underscore the resiliency of the U.S. economy and suggest accelerating economic activity over the next six months,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “To further strengthen the economy, the U.S. needs to double down on policies that spur domestic investment and bolster American competitiveness. The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act is at the top of that list. The House passed this vital measure in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and we strongly encourage the Senate to swiftly follow suit.”

The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:

• Plans for hiring increased 5 points to a value of 60.
• Plans for capital investment increased 16 points to a value of 78.
• Expectations for sales increased 13 points to a value of 118.

In their second estimate of 2024 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.1% growth for the year. This is up marginally from the 1.9% growth projected in their first estimate last quarter. 

In a special question posed this quarter, CEOs were asked whether they believe that government policies are undermining American free enterprise. Over 75% of CEOs answered “yes.” Of those who answered in the affirmative, 92% of CEOs cited excessive regulation and 63% cited overreaching antitrust actions as policies that are undermining or present a risk to the free enterprise system and the benefits it provides.

https://www.businessroundtable.org/media/ceo-economic-outlook-index/ceo-economic-outlook-index-q1-2024

Capital investments.  Buying up of more property... Only going to drive up prices even higher, why? Because they are in the business to make money.  That's my "sky is falling" outlook on that.

I will tell you that construction is easing up as I said before.  2025 looks to be shaping up great for construction though.

Hiring I like.  Thats good.

We still have all these empty building s in Manhattan.  They have never bounced back yet.  I wonder if they ever so?  Sure some we have refurbished get snatched up but, the older ones reman dormant.  Dormant and the people that own them are still rich, lol.

Commercial real estate in NYC is not the economy. Everything I’m reading is that construction growth is in infrastructure, manufacturing and mining and the outlook is positive, residential housing be damned. CHIPS Act for high tech manufacturing, infrastructure spending due to the IIJA and another infusion due to environmental credits and initiatives to reduce carbon emissions in new and old infrastructure. Fuck you Brandon.

Highlights of the First Quarter 2024 Starts Forecast:

• Civil projects are anticipated to grow 12.7% in the US following strong 2023. The sector includes roads, bridges, power infrastructure, water & waste treatment projects among other types.
• Road building, the largest civil engineering sector, is expected to grow at a still healthy 5% in 2024, following double-digit growth last year.
• Nonresidential building is expected to retreat 2.4% this year, but activity levels remain high in important sectors like manufacturing.
• Inflation is expected to cool towards the 2% target, while The Federal Reserve appears poised to drop interest ratesin the year's second half.
• Modest growth of 7.9% in Canadian construction starts is forecast in 2024, before accelerating to 18.5% in 2025 as recessionary pressures subside. Civil engineering projects will drive new Canadian construction again in 2024.
• A recession no longer appears in the forecast but remains a risk as the economy endures the cumulative impact of past tightening in monetary policy, less accommodating lending conditions, and restrictive fiscal policy.

https://www.constructconnect.com/construction-economic-news/constructconnect-raises-2024-us-construction-starts-forecast-to-4.5

Commercial real-estate is not the economy but its a barometer just like watching stock prices of Caterpillar to gauge construction around the world.

We have huge infrastructure ventures happening in the next few years.  I'm sure you read that Buttigieg came and gave the city/state 10 billion for it.  Mass transit will be getting a major push here.  I know I posted about this a few months ago.

The last one on your list will tie into homebuilding and remodeling of both private and commercial buildings. Lending led us to the previous recession.  Stable jobs reporting should make that ease the lending though(hopefully).

I share what I see and read here in NY as the bigger citys will mimic the other ones in time.

I need to look it up but is there any forecasts for when the chip factories (semiconductors) come online and their expected impact for the US and the world?

intel in ohio has experienced delays. was projected for partial operations  for 2025 I think.  now its pushed back to 2027-28.

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-ohio.html

progress is happening though. theres been someajor oversize components barged up the ohio river to near portsmouth and trucked to licking county where the plant will be located.

honda has made huge progress for battery plant south of columbus. its under roof at this stage of construction.

https://lgeshonda.com/

Thanks, you made my rabbit hole a little smaller, lol.  I noticed that newer plants are being made in China too.  I'm sure they'd love to flood the market.

I'm hoping that intel works out as they are building quite a few plants. Texas Instruments too.

massive by truck. 900k
https://www.transportation.ohio.gov/about-us/news/statewide/twelfth-super-load-heading-to-new-albany?fbclid=IwY2xjawDUqntleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHYfLUl9prnGSQDHA-3doTvJTpk39hIYu9y4le9KXjdrNrYAi2BVHeNYNnA_aem_AUOLpqiBgM7ei8_uQjJdj1J8z7anO9Oos97efY42sa5hPy-5teKaGc1N3Xk4AKMlZFDs_uDvb36PAAjFe7uJPnYT

I've seen large precast loads and steel on trucks.  Never something this big before. Wow.

that 916k is just the product. trailer and associated equipment adds roughly 400k more

It's massive yeah.  The insurance and the trucking bill on those things, man.  Just want 1/2% of the total, lol.

The Juggler

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/cpi-report-june-inflation.html

ECONOMY

Inflation slows in May, with consumer prices up 3.3% from a year ago

PUBLISHED WED, JUN 12 20248:31 AM EDTUPDATED 8 MIN AGO

Jeff Cox@JEFF.COX.7528@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM

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KEY POINTS

• The consumer price index held flat in May though it increased 3.3% from a year ago. Both numbers were 0.1 percentage point below market expectations.
• Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 3.4% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.5%.
• Price increases were held in check by a 2% drop in the energy index and just a 0.1% increase in food.

The consumer price index showed no increase in May as inflation slightly loosened its stubborn grip on the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

CPI, a broad inflation gauge that measures a basket of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, held flat on the month though it increased 3.3% from a year ago, according to the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.1% monthly gain and a 3.4% annual rate.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 3.4% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.5%.

Following the report, stock market futures pushed higher while Treasury yields slid.

Though the top-line inflation numbers were lower for both the all-items and core measures, shelter inflation increased 0.4% on the month and was up 5.4% from a year ago. Housing-related numbers have been a sticking point in the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle and make up a heavy share of the CPI weighting.

Price increases were held in check, though, by a 2% drop in the energy index and just a 0.1% increase in food. Within the energy component, gas prices tumbled 3.6%. Another nettlesome inflation component, motor vehicle insurance, saw a 0.1% monthly decline though still up more than 20% on an annual basis.

“Finally, some positive surprises as both headline and core inflation beat forecasts,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “There was relief at the pump, but unfortunately home and apartment costs continue to rise and remain the main cause of inflation. Until those shelter costs begin their long-awaited fall, we won’t see major drops in CPI.”

The release comes at an important juncture for the economy as the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves on monetary policy, which will be based heavily on where inflation is heading.

Later Wednesday, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will wrap up its two-day policy meeting. Markets widely expect the Fed to keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate targeted in a range of 5.25%-5.5%, but will be looking for clues about where the central bank is heading.

Following the CPI release, futures traders upped the chances of the Fed cutting in September, which would be the first move lower since the early days of the Covid pandemic. However, the market outlook has been volatile, and Fed officials have stressed that they need to see more than a month or two of positive data before easing policy.

“You’re going to need three more months of very friendly inflation data to cut” in September, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “If they start easing or talk about easing more, I think they’re going to complicate their own their own goals of getting inflation back to 2%.”

Durable inflation has kept the Fed on the sidelines since it last hiked rates in July 2023. At the March meeting, FOMC members indicated the likelihood that they could rate cuts three times this year for a total of 0.75 percentage point, but they are expected to amend that down to either two or even just one reduction.

In addition, committee members will update their projections on gross domestic product growth as well as inflation and unemployment, all of which could be influenced by the CPI numbers. Economists expect the Fed to raise its projections for inflation and lower the outlook for broad economic growth as reflected by GDP.

Though the Fed doesn’t use CPI as its main inflation indicator, it still figures into the calculus. Policymakers focus more on the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, a broader gauge that takes into account changes in consumer behavior.

mickeyrat

huh. imagine that. some major chains begin the rollback of jacked up pricing in the face of record profits and it results in this....

mickeyrat

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/06/us-economy-excellent/678630/

 

The U.S. Economy Reaches Superstar Status

No, really.

By Rogé Karma

Illustration by Michael Haddad

June 10, 2024

Listen to this article

00:00

14:20

Produced by ElevenLabs and News Over Audio (NOA) using AI narration.

If the United States’ economy were an athlete, right now it would be peak LeBron James. If it were a pop star, it would be peak Taylor Swift. Four years ago, the pandemic temporarily brought much of the world economy to a halt. Since then, America’s economic performance has left other countries in the dust and even broken some of its own records. The growth rate is high, the unemployment rate is at historic lows, household wealth is surging, and wages are rising faster than costs, especially for the working class. There are many ways to define a good economy. America is in tremendous shape according to just about any of them.

The American public doesn’t feel that way—a dynamic that many people, including me, have recently tried to explain. But if, instead of asking how people feel about the economy, we ask how it’s objectively performing, we get a very different answer.

Let’s start with economists’ favorite metric: growth. When an economy is growing, more money is being spent. More stuff is being produced, more services are being performed, more businesses are being started, more workers are being hired—and, because of this abundance, living standards are probably rising. (On the flip side, during a recession—literally, when the economy shrinks—life gets materially worse.) Right now America’s economic-growth rate is the envy of the world. From the end of 2019 to the end of 2023, U.S. GDP grew by 8.2 percent—nearly twice as fast as Canada’s, three times as fast as the European Union’s, and more than eight times as fast as the United Kingdom’s.

Rogé Karma: What would it take to convince Americans that the economy is fine?

continues...

mickeyrat

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/biden-us-economic-growth-becomes-envy-world-rcna157003

cutz

mickeyrat said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/06/us-economy-excellent/678630/

 

The U.S. Economy Reaches Superstar Status

No, really.

By Rogé Karma

Illustration by Michael Haddad

June 10, 2024

Listen to this article

00:00

14:20

Produced by ElevenLabs and News Over Audio (NOA) using AI narration.

If the United States’ economy were an athlete, right now it would be peak LeBron James. If it were a pop star, it would be peak Taylor Swift. Four years ago, the pandemic temporarily brought much of the world economy to a halt. Since then, America’s economic performance has left other countries in the dust and even broken some of its own records. The growth rate is high, the unemployment rate is at historic lows, household wealth is surging, and wages are rising faster than costs, especially for the working class. There are many ways to define a good economy. America is in tremendous shape according to just about any of them.

The American public doesn’t feel that way—a dynamic that many people, including me, have recently tried to explain. But if, instead of asking how people feel about the economy, we ask how it’s objectively performing, we get a very different answer.

Let’s start with economists’ favorite metric: growth. When an economy is growing, more money is being spent. More stuff is being produced, more services are being performed, more businesses are being started, more workers are being hired—and, because of this abundance, living standards are probably rising. (On the flip side, during a recession—literally, when the economy shrinks—life gets materially worse.) Right now America’s economic-growth rate is the envy of the world. From the end of 2019 to the end of 2023, U.S. GDP grew by 8.2 percent—nearly twice as fast as Canada’s, three times as fast as the European Union’s, and more than eight times as fast as the United Kingdom’s.

Rogé Karma: What would it take to convince Americans that the economy is fine?

continues...

I believe it.

I went to Costco on a Tuesday and the placed was packed like it was a Weekend. I always go on a Tuesday, or a Wed.s to avoid the crowd.

I've also seen a lot of New Car Tags(Temporary) while driving around too.