But paycheck to paycheck was just one point. Housing is crazy. Houses have doubled in 5 years, causing rent to go up as well. Interest rates have been way up in the last year. Inflation was way up. Cost of cars are way up. I read an article a few months ago that because more people can't afford new cars, the used market has gone way up and people are driving older cars much longer. Which makes repairs and maintenance more costly because auto shops are slammed try to keep older cars running longer than before. Good if you're a mechanic, bad if you're everyone else. It shouldn't be a surprise that more Americans are finding it harder to live on what they make compared to a few years ago.
Another sign of a hot economy. Mechanics are doing great. I used to be able to call my mechanic and get my truck in for maintenance/repair within 1-2 days. Now it's like 10 days. Their prices have increased because of supply and demand.
Our economy ebbs and flows. Gas prices will decrease, food costs will decrease....and at the same time our economy will slow down. Then the GOP will scream about that. But again....they offer NO LEGISLATION to fix anything that they complain about.
Isn't the problem with the car market a shortage of supply, not a surplus of demand because everyone is buying new cars? They cut back on production that created more demand. That's not a hot economy, it's just a shortage in supply that raises prices. That shortage in supply lead to people keeping their car longer, which also increased the cost of used car and maintenance, since, like you said, its a 10 day wait not instead of just 1. With that shortage of new cars, the average price for a new car went up by 10k according to KBB.
So, you are saying that the reason people can't afford new cars is in no way the fault of Joe Biden? Glad we can agree there.
Yes, I think Biden has had little impact on the current economy. I just disagree that this is a hot economy and everything is great financially. Cost is increasing a lot faster than wages and jobs.
The fed has been raising interest rates specifically to slow down the hot economy (as explained to JB yesterday...info he seemingly ignored). Companies are also still hiring like crazy...also something the fed is not pleased with.
But paycheck to paycheck was just one point. Housing is crazy. Houses have doubled in 5 years, causing rent to go up as well. Interest rates have been way up in the last year. Inflation was way up. Cost of cars are way up. I read an article a few months ago that because more people can't afford new cars, the used market has gone way up and people are driving older cars much longer. Which makes repairs and maintenance more costly because auto shops are slammed try to keep older cars running longer than before. Good if you're a mechanic, bad if you're everyone else. It shouldn't be a surprise that more Americans are finding it harder to live on what they make compared to a few years ago.
Another sign of a hot economy. Mechanics are doing great. I used to be able to call my mechanic and get my truck in for maintenance/repair within 1-2 days. Now it's like 10 days. Their prices have increased because of supply and demand.
Our economy ebbs and flows. Gas prices will decrease, food costs will decrease....and at the same time our economy will slow down. Then the GOP will scream about that. But again....they offer NO LEGISLATION to fix anything that they complain about.
Isn't the problem with the car market a shortage of supply, not a surplus of demand because everyone is buying new cars? They cut back on production that created more demand. That's not a hot economy, it's just a shortage in supply that raises prices. That shortage in supply lead to people keeping their car longer, which also increased the cost of used car and maintenance, since, like you said, its a 10 day wait not instead of just 1. With that shortage of new cars, the average price for a new car went up by 10k according to KBB.
So, you are saying that the reason people can't afford new cars is in no way the fault of Joe Biden? Glad we can agree there.
Yes, I think Biden has had little impact on the current economy. I just disagree that this is a hot economy and everything is great financially. Cost is increasing a lot faster than wages and jobs.
The fed has been raising interest rates specifically to slow down the hot economy (as explained to JB yesterday...info he seemingly ignored). Companies are also still hiring like crazy...also something the fed is not pleased with.
Yes, but also like I said, its "hot" depending on who you are and how you define it. A non-home owner trying to buy your first home is next to impossible right now. If you can afford it, you're paying triple the mortgage for someone who bought the same house 5 years ago. If you can't, you're paying a lot more in rent compared to a few years ago too. A lot of those people are struggling. Someone in finance or real estate who already owns a home, might not be.
Actually, you can be paying a lot more than triple. I used a mortgage calculator. The house we live in now sold for 206k in 2015. A mortgage then, if putting 20% down, would have likely cost about $700. We purchased it 1.5 years ago for 450, and is now valued at 550k. For someone to buy that home now the mortgage would be about $3400, if you put the 20% down, but who has 110k to do that? You're paying 5 times the mortgage from someone who bought the same house 8 years ago. And you want me to think Americans aren't struggling to pay bills, or they are just living beyond their means, or the fact they can't afford a car either is a good thing? I'd be renting for the rest of my life if I was buying my first home now, and if we didn't buy 11 years ago and have a lot of equity from the market.
Actually, you can be paying a lot more than triple. I used a mortgage calculator. The house we live in now sold for 206k in 2015. A mortgage then, if putting 20% down, would have likely cost about $700. We purchased it 1.5 years ago for 450, and is now valued at 550k. For someone to buy that home now the mortgage would be about $3400, if you put the 20% down, but who has 110k to do that? You're paying 5 times the mortgage from someone who bought the same house 8 years ago. And you want me to think Americans aren't struggling to pay bills, or they are just living beyond their means, or the fact they can't afford a car either is a good thing? I'd be renting for the rest of my life if I was buying my first home now, and if we didn't buy 11 years ago and have a lot of equity from the market.
Would you rather your house be worth less than when you bought it?
Actually, you can be paying a lot more than triple. I used a mortgage calculator. The house we live in now sold for 206k in 2015. A mortgage then, if putting 20% down, would have likely cost about $700. We purchased it 1.5 years ago for 450, and is now valued at 550k. For someone to buy that home now the mortgage would be about $3400, if you put the 20% down, but who has 110k to do that? You're paying 5 times the mortgage from someone who bought the same house 8 years ago. And you want me to think Americans aren't struggling to pay bills, or they are just living beyond their means, or the fact they can't afford a car either is a good thing? I'd be renting for the rest of my life if I was buying my first home now, and if we didn't buy 11 years ago and have a lot of equity from the market.
Would you rather your house be worth less than when you bought it?
Nope. But I don't like this crazy market either. Before we moved in 2022, our neighbors were always talking about how their houses were worth so much more and getting all excited. I kept telling them it doesn't matter, it's not like a stock market where you gain interest. All the increased value was doing was increasing our property taxes and insurance. If we sell and move somewhere else, we're going to be paying the same inflated prices. Which we did, only other difference was we paid our realtor a lot more too. A house that costs 20k in realtor fees a few years ago now is going to run $35,000 or more. I'd rather the housing market grow at a normal speed, than double in 3-5 years. I see zero advantage to it growing the way it did, even for homeowners. All it's doing is pricing new buyers out, and raising property taxes and insurance.
yeah, my house in 2005 was $113K. It's now close to $300K. it's insane. my house is a starter. we just never left. lol. $300K as a starter, even in CDN funds, is insanity.
yeah, my house in 2005 was $113K. It's now close to $300K. it's insane. my house is a starter. we just never left. lol. $300K as a starter, even in CDN funds, is insanity.
That at least is over almost a 20 year period. You're seeing that growth in about 1/3 that time in a lot of the parts down here. Imagine buying your first home as a younger couple and paying 3-5 times the mortgage you did 20 years ago. Most people can't do it.
young adults, those most likely in the common first time home buyers category , tend not to vote in state and local “off year” elections. Good luck getting policies in place to help this housing crisis. Starter homes by me are around $700k usd.
yeah, my house in 2005 was $113K. It's now close to $300K. it's insane. my house is a starter. we just never left. lol. $300K as a starter, even in CDN funds, is insanity.
That at least is over almost a 20 year period. You're seeing that growth in about 1/3 that time in a lot of the parts down here. Imagine buying your first home as a younger couple and paying 3-5 times the mortgage you did 20 years ago. Most people can't do it.
So back on topic, what should Joe do about it or how is it his fault?
young adults, those most likely in the common first time home buyers category , tend not to vote in state and local “off year” elections. Good luck getting policies in place to help this housing crisis. Starter homes by me are around $700k usd.
I don't know where you are located but 700k is about 200k over the average cost of homes across the country. Maybe first time buyers just can't afford to live where you do.
yeah, my house in 2005 was $113K. It's now close to $300K. it's insane. my house is a starter. we just never left. lol. $300K as a starter, even in CDN funds, is insanity.
That at least is over almost a 20 year period. You're seeing that growth in about 1/3 that time in a lot of the parts down here. Imagine buying your first home as a younger couple and paying 3-5 times the mortgage you did 20 years ago. Most people can't do it.
So back on topic, what should Joe do about it or how is it his fault?
this is just history repeating itself. The republicans move in, screw the country up, the country elects a democratic to fix it all the while republicans blame the dems. The dems get it fixed then along comes the republican again. Im not the only person who thinks or posts it. We all know it. Joe will get re-elected. These young people aren’t letting trump back.
But paycheck to paycheck was just one point. Housing is crazy. Houses have doubled in 5 years, causing rent to go up as well. Interest rates have been way up in the last year. Inflation was way up. Cost of cars are way up. I read an article a few months ago that because more people can't afford new cars, the used market has gone way up and people are driving older cars much longer. Which makes repairs and maintenance more costly because auto shops are slammed try to keep older cars running longer than before. Good if you're a mechanic, bad if you're everyone else. It shouldn't be a surprise that more Americans are finding it harder to live on what they make compared to a few years ago.
Another sign of a hot economy. Mechanics are doing great. I used to be able to call my mechanic and get my truck in for maintenance/repair within 1-2 days. Now it's like 10 days. Their prices have increased because of supply and demand.
Our economy ebbs and flows. Gas prices will decrease, food costs will decrease....and at the same time our economy will slow down. Then the GOP will scream about that. But again....they offer NO LEGISLATION to fix anything that they complain about.
Isn't the problem with the car market a shortage of supply, not a surplus of demand because everyone is buying new cars? They cut back on production that created more demand. That's not a hot economy, it's just a shortage in supply that raises prices. That shortage in supply lead to people keeping their car longer, which also increased the cost of used car and maintenance, since, like you said, its a 10 day wait not instead of just 1. With that shortage of new cars, the average price for a new car went up by 10k according to KBB.
So, you are saying that the reason people can't afford new cars is in no way the fault of Joe Biden? Glad we can agree there.
Yes, I think Biden has had little impact on the current economy. I just disagree that this is a hot economy and everything is great financially. Cost is increasing a lot faster than wages and jobs.
The fed has been raising interest rates specifically to slow down the hot economy (as explained to JB yesterday...info he seemingly ignored). Companies are also still hiring like crazy...also something the fed is not pleased with.
Yes, but also like I said, its "hot" depending on who you are and how you define it. A non-home owner trying to buy your first home is next to impossible right now. If you can afford it, you're paying triple the mortgage for someone who bought the same house 5 years ago. If you can't, you're paying a lot more in rent compared to a few years ago too. A lot of those people are struggling. Someone in finance or real estate who already owns a home, might not be.
I’m agreeing with mace on this one. Credit card debt is high because people are using credit to buy food, pay utilities, etc. Those of us old enough have seen this before, many times.
young adults, those most likely in the common first time home buyers category , tend not to vote in state and local “off year” elections. Good luck getting policies in place to help this housing crisis. Starter homes by me are around $700k usd.
I don't know where you are located but 700k is about 200k over the average cost of homes across the country. Maybe first time buyers just can't afford to live where you do.
This. I lived in Marina del Rey, in SoCal for years. Wanted to buy but didn't have $200-300k for a down-payment. Only rented there. Moved to NJ, to suburban Philly, where I could afford a good house. We wished we could have purchased a house on the water, where we rented. Wish in one hand and shit in the other.
We did what wise people do when it comes to wanting to live in a highly desired area. Moved to where we could do this.
But paycheck to paycheck was just one point. Housing is crazy. Houses have doubled in 5 years, causing rent to go up as well. Interest rates have been way up in the last year. Inflation was way up. Cost of cars are way up. I read an article a few months ago that because more people can't afford new cars, the used market has gone way up and people are driving older cars much longer. Which makes repairs and maintenance more costly because auto shops are slammed try to keep older cars running longer than before. Good if you're a mechanic, bad if you're everyone else. It shouldn't be a surprise that more Americans are finding it harder to live on what they make compared to a few years ago.
Another sign of a hot economy. Mechanics are doing great. I used to be able to call my mechanic and get my truck in for maintenance/repair within 1-2 days. Now it's like 10 days. Their prices have increased because of supply and demand.
Our economy ebbs and flows. Gas prices will decrease, food costs will decrease....and at the same time our economy will slow down. Then the GOP will scream about that. But again....they offer NO LEGISLATION to fix anything that they complain about.
Isn't the problem with the car market a shortage of supply, not a surplus of demand because everyone is buying new cars? They cut back on production that created more demand. That's not a hot economy, it's just a shortage in supply that raises prices. That shortage in supply lead to people keeping their car longer, which also increased the cost of used car and maintenance, since, like you said, its a 10 day wait not instead of just 1. With that shortage of new cars, the average price for a new car went up by 10k according to KBB.
So, you are saying that the reason people can't afford new cars is in no way the fault of Joe Biden? Glad we can agree there.
Yes, I think Biden has had little impact on the current economy. I just disagree that this is a hot economy and everything is great financially. Cost is increasing a lot faster than wages and jobs.
The fed has been raising interest rates specifically to slow down the hot economy (as explained to JB yesterday...info he seemingly ignored). Companies are also still hiring like crazy...also something the fed is not pleased with.
Yes, but also like I said, its "hot" depending on who you are and how you define it. A non-home owner trying to buy your first home is next to impossible right now. If you can afford it, you're paying triple the mortgage for someone who bought the same house 5 years ago. If you can't, you're paying a lot more in rent compared to a few years ago too. A lot of those people are struggling. Someone in finance or real estate who already owns a home, might not be.
When I say "hot," I don't mean people have it easy and are not struggling. I sell mortgages for a living and talk to people every single day who are struggling due to inflation...which is not a problem created by Joe Biden, as JB was on here yesterday arguing poorly. Home values have been rising steadily since we got out of the housing crisis. They have shot up by huge numbers since the pandemic, which is definitely troublesome especially for younger people looking to buy their first home (the rise has slowed over the last year thoaugh). But even if they continued rising at the same pace as the previous 20 years--that's still far eclipsing the rise in wages (so again--not something just created in the last 3 years as ol' JB was insinuating yesterday). I don't know the answer to this problem.
But generally speaking, a hot economy consists of an unemployment rate between 4-6% and a GDP growing between 2 and 3%. Well unemployment is about as low as it's been in 50 years (3.8%) and the GDP just grew by 4.9%. That is a hot economy anyway you slice it.
We live a weird time. We need the economy to cool down before the fed will lower interest rates again. But reports like this suggest that people are still spending like crazy despite things costing more...which makes it more likely the fed will keep rates higher for a longer period of time. Next week is an important one with the fed meeting and with the October jobs report coming out.
A woman carrying a shopping bag from Staud walks past people queuing for a pop-up shop in the SoHo neighborhood of New York City, U.S., September 21, 2023. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
Summary
Consumer spending increases 0.7% in September
Personal income gains 0.3%; saving rate falls to 3.4%
Core PCE price index rises 0.3%; up 3.7% year-on-year
WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending surged in September as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and traveled, keeping spending on a higher growth path heading into the fourth quarter.
The stronger-than-expected increase in spending reported by the Commerce Department on Friday was accompanied by elevated monthly inflation readings, against the backdrop of higher costs for services like housing. Spending is, however, seen cooling off in early 2024 as excess savings accumulated during the pandemic start running out, leaving economists convinced the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.
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But risks of a rate hike remain.
"U.S. consumers still had some gas left in the tank last month that risks carrying into the current quarter," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
"While we still expect spending and the economy to downshift sharply in the fourth quarter, the risk is that both will keep running hotter than the Fed needs to subdue still-stubborn services inflation."
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Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, accelerated 0.7% last month after an unrevised 0.4% rise in August, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast spending gaining 0.5%.
The increase in spending was spread across goods and services. Outlays on goods increased 0.7%, led by prescription medication, new light trucks, food and beverages as well as recreational goods and vehicles. Spending on services
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shot up 0.8%, boosted by international travel, housing and utilities, healthcare and airline transportation services.
The data was included in the advance gross domestic product report for the third quarter published on Thursday, which showed consumer spending accelerating sharply, contributing to the fastest pace of economic growth in nearly two years.
Adjusting for inflation, consumer spending rose a solid 0.4% in September after ticking up 0.1% in August, a strong hand-off from the April-June quarter that bodes well for consumption and overall economic growth in the fourth quarter.
Growth, however, is unlikely to match last quarter's blockbuster performance. Consumer tapped their savings and put away less money with the saving rate dropping to 3.4% from 4.0% in August.
Personal income rose 0.3% after gaining 0.4% in August. Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation and taxes dropped for a third straight month.
"That is not sustainable," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. "Savings are finite and are being exhausted at a rapid rate, with various estimates suggesting that excess savings accrued during the pandemic could be exhausted in the first half of next year."
Excess savings are mostly concentrated among high-income households, according to economists, with low-income households believed to have long depleted their stash. Most people are turning on debt to fund purchases. Some of these people likely have student loans on which they resumed repayment this month, which could out them in a precarious financial position.
But not every economist sees rising credit card balances as a threat, arguing that consumers are still able to meet their debt obligations, thanks to a strong labor market. Wages increased 0.4% after advancing 0.5% in the prior month.
"U.S. households are healthy financially relative to past cycles," said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York. "Debt levels are low, savings are still pretty high and income is solid. There is nothing compelling in the data suggesting a spending slowdown is inevitable."
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mixed.
WARMER MONTHLY INFLATION
Monthly inflation remained warm in September. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gained 0.4% after increasing by the same margin in August. Food prices climbed
0.3% and energy prices increased 1.7%.
In the 12 months through September, the PCE price index advanced 3.4%, matching August's rise.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.3%, after edging up 0.1% in August. The cost of housing services increased 0.5%.
Monthly inflation readings of 0.2% on a sustainable basis are needed to bring inflation back to the U.S. central bank's 2% target, according to economists. The so-called core PCE price index rose 3.7% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest gain since May 2021, after increasing 3.8% in August.
Stripping out housing, the core PCE price index rose by a mild 0.2%. The so-called super core, which is PCE services excluding energy and housing was stronger, increasing 0.4% after nudging up 0.1% in August. The super core PCE price index advanced 4.3% year-on-year in September.
The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for monetary policy. Policymakers are watching the super core PCE price index to try and gauge their progress in combating inflation. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged next Wednesday as a recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields and stock market sell-off have tightened financial conditions.
Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
"There is more work to be done to sustainably lower inflation towards the 2% target," said Pooja Sriram, an economist at Barclays in New York.
I thought you were supposed to buy your house at the bottom of the market and not when the housing market is “hot?” Silly me.
Even if we end up in a recession next year and home values go down to where they were pre-pandemic--that is still 100k higher than the median home value ten years earlier. This is not a new problem, as ol' JB was making it out to be yesterday.
An article this morning jumped out at me. Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post
noted that the U.S. economy “looks remarkably good.” A recent stunning
jobs report, showing that the economy continues to add jobs at record
rates—more than 13.9 million since President Joe Biden took office—along
with yesterday’s stunning report that U.S. economic growth grew at an
annual pace of 4.9% in the third quarter of this year, puts the U.S.
economy at the forefront of most of the world. And inflation is back in
the range that the Federal Reserve prefers—it’s at 2.4%, close to the
Fed’s target of 2%.
The
U.S. is outperforming forecasts made even before the pandemic began for
where the economy would be now, even as other countries are worse off.
And
yet, Rampell notes, Americans are about as negative about the economy
today as they were during the Great Recession after 2008, when mortgage
foreclosures were forcing people out of their homes and unemployment
rested at about 9%, more than twice what it is today. In contrast,
consumers give high marks to the Trump years, when average growth before
the pandemic was 2.5% and the U.S. added only about 6.4 million jobs.
There
is a crucial divorce here between image and reality. Americans think
our economy, currently the strongest in the world, is in poor shape.
They mistakenly believe it was better under Trump.
That
profound and measurable disjunction ought to make us sit up and take
notice, especially as the Biden administration continues to try to make
the economy responsive to ordinary Americans and the country continues
to pay little attention. Today, for example, the White House announced
an effort to turn the dual problems of empty office buildings and a
shortage of affordable housing into a win-win. It announced a series of
actions to convert vacant commercial properties to residential
buildings. Their efforts are designed to create affordable,
energy-efficient housing near public transportation and jobs.
(See Mickey's Heather post for the rest of the letter.)
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
An article this morning jumped out at me. Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post
noted that the U.S. economy “looks remarkably good.” A recent stunning
jobs report, showing that the economy continues to add jobs at record
rates—more than 13.9 million since President Joe Biden took office—along
with yesterday’s stunning report that U.S. economic growth grew at an
annual pace of 4.9% in the third quarter of this year, puts the U.S.
economy at the forefront of most of the world. And inflation is back in
the range that the Federal Reserve prefers—it’s at 2.4%, close to the
Fed’s target of 2%.
The
U.S. is outperforming forecasts made even before the pandemic began for
where the economy would be now, even as other countries are worse off.
And
yet, Rampell notes, Americans are about as negative about the economy
today as they were during the Great Recession after 2008, when mortgage
foreclosures were forcing people out of their homes and unemployment
rested at about 9%, more than twice what it is today. In contrast,
consumers give high marks to the Trump years, when average growth before
the pandemic was 2.5% and the U.S. added only about 6.4 million jobs.
There
is a crucial divorce here between image and reality. Americans think
our economy, currently the strongest in the world, is in poor shape.
They mistakenly believe it was better under Trump.
That
profound and measurable disjunction ought to make us sit up and take
notice, especially as the Biden administration continues to try to make
the economy responsive to ordinary Americans and the country continues
to pay little attention. Today, for example, the White House announced
an effort to turn the dual problems of empty office buildings and a
shortage of affordable housing into a win-win. It announced a series of
actions to convert vacant commercial properties to residential
buildings. Their efforts are designed to create affordable,
energy-efficient housing near public transportation and jobs.
(See Mickey's Heather post for the rest of the letter.)
An article this morning jumped out at me. Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post
noted that the U.S. economy “looks remarkably good.” A recent stunning
jobs report, showing that the economy continues to add jobs at record
rates—more than 13.9 million since President Joe Biden took office—along
with yesterday’s stunning report that U.S. economic growth grew at an
annual pace of 4.9% in the third quarter of this year, puts the U.S.
economy at the forefront of most of the world. And inflation is back in
the range that the Federal Reserve prefers—it’s at 2.4%, close to the
Fed’s target of 2%.
The
U.S. is outperforming forecasts made even before the pandemic began for
where the economy would be now, even as other countries are worse off.
And
yet, Rampell notes, Americans are about as negative about the economy
today as they were during the Great Recession after 2008, when mortgage
foreclosures were forcing people out of their homes and unemployment
rested at about 9%, more than twice what it is today. In contrast,
consumers give high marks to the Trump years, when average growth before
the pandemic was 2.5% and the U.S. added only about 6.4 million jobs.
There
is a crucial divorce here between image and reality. Americans think
our economy, currently the strongest in the world, is in poor shape.
They mistakenly believe it was better under Trump.
That
profound and measurable disjunction ought to make us sit up and take
notice, especially as the Biden administration continues to try to make
the economy responsive to ordinary Americans and the country continues
to pay little attention. Today, for example, the White House announced
an effort to turn the dual problems of empty office buildings and a
shortage of affordable housing into a win-win. It announced a series of
actions to convert vacant commercial properties to residential
buildings. Their efforts are designed to create affordable,
energy-efficient housing near public transportation and jobs.
(See Mickey's Heather post for the rest of the letter.)
The timing of this is uncanny.
For sure.
“The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
An article this morning jumped out at me. Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post
noted that the U.S. economy “looks remarkably good.” A recent stunning
jobs report, showing that the economy continues to add jobs at record
rates—more than 13.9 million since President Joe Biden took office—along
with yesterday’s stunning report that U.S. economic growth grew at an
annual pace of 4.9% in the third quarter of this year, puts the U.S.
economy at the forefront of most of the world. And inflation is back in
the range that the Federal Reserve prefers—it’s at 2.4%, close to the
Fed’s target of 2%.
The
U.S. is outperforming forecasts made even before the pandemic began for
where the economy would be now, even as other countries are worse off.
And
yet, Rampell notes, Americans are about as negative about the economy
today as they were during the Great Recession after 2008, when mortgage
foreclosures were forcing people out of their homes and unemployment
rested at about 9%, more than twice what it is today. In contrast,
consumers give high marks to the Trump years, when average growth before
the pandemic was 2.5% and the U.S. added only about 6.4 million jobs.
There
is a crucial divorce here between image and reality. Americans think
our economy, currently the strongest in the world, is in poor shape.
They mistakenly believe it was better under Trump.
That
profound and measurable disjunction ought to make us sit up and take
notice, especially as the Biden administration continues to try to make
the economy responsive to ordinary Americans and the country continues
to pay little attention. Today, for example, the White House announced
an effort to turn the dual problems of empty office buildings and a
shortage of affordable housing into a win-win. It announced a series of
actions to convert vacant commercial properties to residential
buildings. Their efforts are designed to create affordable,
energy-efficient housing near public transportation and jobs.
(See Mickey's Heather post for the rest of the letter.)
The timing of this is uncanny.
For sure.
I think it can be true that it was a worse economy as ascertained by economists under Trump while being easier on people's pocketbooks.
High interest rates and rising costs don't help people have confidence no matter what economists and wall street say.
I dontbattribute any success or failure either way to Trump or Biden when it comes to the economy. The real economy is more than a bunch of numbers and who won the quartenary presidential elections.
yeah, my house in 2005 was $113K. It's now close to $300K. it's insane. my house is a starter. we just never left. lol. $300K as a starter, even in CDN funds, is insanity.
That at least is over almost a 20 year period. You're seeing that growth in about 1/3 that time in a lot of the parts down here. Imagine buying your first home as a younger couple and paying 3-5 times the mortgage you did 20 years ago. Most people can't do it.
And now the boomers think today's 30-year-olds are too lazy to achieve their lifestyle. Good for my parents for their 1974 purchase of a $29,000 home now worth $300,000 but income hasn't grown at anything close to that clip.
I'm absolutely blown away by the cost of housing nowadays. My wife and I (DINKs) spent $240,000 on ours and we just would not entertain $300,000. Meanwhile people making our money with kids are probably living in houses they payed $400,000 for and have two car payments. I don't know that I could endure the stress of that.
Like you said in a post above, I also don't want my value to go down but this all is a huge problem and I (admittedly in an extremely privaledged position) would make that sacrifice if housing was much more affordable. I honestly don't know how some people even live indoors anymore.
Morally speaking (i.e., with no thoughts on the market), a decent home should be very low six-figures. Given how much money people are making, that would serve us very well. Mansions that the common person cannot afford would still exist. Not everyone would have the perfect home, but they'd be able to get what they need without living check-to-check from age 25 to age 60.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
yeah, my house in 2005 was $113K. It's now close to $300K. it's insane. my house is a starter. we just never left. lol. $300K as a starter, even in CDN funds, is insanity.
That at least is over almost a 20 year period. You're seeing that growth in about 1/3 that time in a lot of the parts down here. Imagine buying your first home as a younger couple and paying 3-5 times the mortgage you did 20 years ago. Most people can't do it.
And now the boomers think today's 30-year-olds are too lazy to achieve their lifestyle. Good for my parents for their 1974 purchase of a $29,000 home now worth $300,000 but income hasn't grown at anything close to that clip.
I'm absolutely blown away by the cost of housing nowadays. My wife and I (DINKs) spent $240,000 on ours and we just would not entertain $300,000. Meanwhile people making our money with kids are probably living in houses they payed $400,000 for and have two car payments. I don't know that I could endure the stress of that.
Like you said in a post above, I also don't want my value to go down but this all is a huge problem and I (admittedly in an extremely privaledged position) would make that sacrifice if housing was much more affordable. I honestly don't know how some people even live indoors anymore.
Morally speaking (i.e., with no thoughts on the market), a decent home should be very low six-figures. Given how much money people are making, that would serve us very well. Mansions that the common person cannot afford would still exist. Not everyone would have the perfect home, but they'd be able to get what they need without living check-to-check from age 25 to age 60.
I agree and empathize with the plight of younger adults struggle to find affordable housing, and I agree with most everything you said. What I don't understand is the "boomers" bashing. What kind of shitty peers of mine are you hanging with?
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A non-home owner trying to buy your first home is next to impossible right now. If you can afford it, you're paying triple the mortgage for someone who bought the same house 5 years ago. If you can't, you're paying a lot more in rent compared to a few years ago too. A lot of those people are struggling. Someone in finance or real estate who already owns a home, might not be.
I used a mortgage calculator. The house we live in now sold for 206k in 2015. A mortgage then, if putting 20% down, would have likely cost about $700. We purchased it 1.5 years ago for 450, and is now valued at 550k. For someone to buy that home now the mortgage would be about $3400, if you put the 20% down, but who has 110k to do that? You're paying 5 times the mortgage from someone who bought the same house 8 years ago. And you want me to think Americans aren't struggling to pay bills, or they are just living beyond their means, or the fact they can't afford a car either is a good thing?
I'd be renting for the rest of my life if I was buying my first home now, and if we didn't buy 11 years ago and have a lot of equity from the market.
I kept telling them it doesn't matter, it's not like a stock market where you gain interest. All the increased value was doing was increasing our property taxes and insurance. If we sell and move somewhere else, we're going to be paying the same inflated prices. Which we did, only other difference was we paid our realtor a lot more too. A house that costs 20k in realtor fees a few years ago now is going to run $35,000 or more.
I'd rather the housing market grow at a normal speed, than double in 3-5 years. I see zero advantage to it growing the way it did, even for homeowners. All it's doing is pricing new buyers out, and raising property taxes and insurance.
www.headstonesband.com
Maybe first time buyers just can't afford to live where you do.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS
We wished we could have purchased a house on the water, where we rented.
Wish in one hand and shit in the other.
We did what wise people do when it comes to wanting to live in a highly desired area.
Moved to where we could do this.
Edit- I also didn't blame the president.
But generally speaking, a hot economy consists of an unemployment rate between 4-6% and a GDP growing between 2 and 3%. Well unemployment is about as low as it's been in 50 years (3.8%) and the GDP just grew by 4.9%. That is a hot economy anyway you slice it.
We live a weird time. We need the economy to cool down before the fed will lower interest rates again. But reports like this suggest that people are still spending like crazy despite things costing more...which makes it more likely the fed will keep rates higher for a longer period of time. Next week is an important one with the fed meeting and with the October jobs report coming out.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-spending-beats-expectations-september-2023-10-27/
US consumer spending exits third quarter on strong note; monthly core inflation rises
A woman carrying a shopping bag from Staud walks past people queuing for a pop-up shop in the SoHo neighborhood of New York City, U.S., September 21, 2023. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending surged in September as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and traveled, keeping spending on a higher growth path heading into the fourth quarter.
The stronger-than-expected increase in spending reported by the Commerce Department on Friday was accompanied by elevated monthly inflation readings, against the backdrop of higher costs for services like housing. Spending is, however, seen cooling off in early 2024 as excess savings accumulated during the pandemic start running out, leaving economists convinced the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.
But risks of a rate hike remain.
"U.S. consumers still had some gas left in the tank last month that risks carrying into the current quarter," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
"While we still expect spending and the economy to downshift sharply in the fourth quarter, the risk is that both will keep running hotter than the Fed needs to subdue still-stubborn services inflation."
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, accelerated 0.7% last month after an unrevised 0.4% rise in August, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast spending gaining 0.5%.
The increase in spending was spread across goods and services. Outlays on goods increased 0.7%, led by prescription medication, new light trucks, food and beverages as well as recreational goods and vehicles. Spending on services
shot up 0.8%, boosted by international travel, housing and utilities, healthcare and airline transportation services.
The data was included in the advance gross domestic product report for the third quarter published on Thursday, which showed consumer spending accelerating sharply, contributing to the fastest pace of economic growth in nearly two years.
Adjusting for inflation, consumer spending rose a solid 0.4% in September after ticking up 0.1% in August, a strong hand-off from the April-June quarter that bodes well for consumption and overall economic growth in the fourth quarter.
Growth, however, is unlikely to match last quarter's blockbuster performance. Consumer tapped their savings and put away less money with the saving rate dropping to 3.4% from 4.0% in August.
Personal income rose 0.3% after gaining 0.4% in August. Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation and taxes dropped for a third straight month.
"That is not sustainable," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. "Savings are finite and are being exhausted at a rapid rate, with various estimates suggesting that excess savings accrued during the pandemic could be exhausted in the first half of next year."
Excess savings are mostly concentrated among high-income households, according to economists, with low-income households believed to have long depleted their stash. Most people are turning on debt to fund purchases. Some of these people likely have student loans on which they resumed repayment this month, which could out them in a precarious financial position.
But not every economist sees rising credit card balances as a threat, arguing that consumers are still able to meet their debt obligations, thanks to a strong labor market. Wages increased 0.4% after advancing 0.5% in the prior month.
"U.S. households are healthy financially relative to past cycles," said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York. "Debt levels are low, savings are still pretty high and income is solid. There is nothing compelling in the data suggesting a spending slowdown is inevitable."
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mixed.
WARMER MONTHLY INFLATION
Monthly inflation remained warm in September. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gained 0.4% after increasing by the same margin in August. Food prices climbed
0.3% and energy prices increased 1.7%.
In the 12 months through September, the PCE price index advanced 3.4%, matching August's rise.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.3%, after edging up 0.1% in August. The cost of housing services increased 0.5%.
Monthly inflation readings of 0.2% on a sustainable basis are needed to bring inflation back to the U.S. central bank's 2% target, according to economists. The so-called core PCE price index rose 3.7% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest gain since May 2021, after increasing 3.8% in August.
Stripping out housing, the core PCE price index rose by a mild 0.2%. The so-called super core, which is PCE services excluding energy and housing was stronger, increasing 0.4% after nudging up 0.1% in August. The super core PCE price index advanced 4.3% year-on-year in September.
The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for monetary policy. Policymakers are watching the super core PCE price index to try and gauge their progress in combating inflation. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged next Wednesday as a recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields and stock market sell-off have tightened financial conditions.
Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
"There is more work to be done to sustainably lower inflation towards the 2% target," said Pooja Sriram, an economist at Barclays in New York.
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
October 27, 2023
An article this morning jumped out at me. Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post noted that the U.S. economy “looks remarkably good.” A recent stunning jobs report, showing that the economy continues to add jobs at record rates—more than 13.9 million since President Joe Biden took office—along with yesterday’s stunning report that U.S. economic growth grew at an annual pace of 4.9% in the third quarter of this year, puts the U.S. economy at the forefront of most of the world. And inflation is back in the range that the Federal Reserve prefers—it’s at 2.4%, close to the Fed’s target of 2%.
The U.S. is outperforming forecasts made even before the pandemic began for where the economy would be now, even as other countries are worse off.
And yet, Rampell notes, Americans are about as negative about the economy today as they were during the Great Recession after 2008, when mortgage foreclosures were forcing people out of their homes and unemployment rested at about 9%, more than twice what it is today. In contrast, consumers give high marks to the Trump years, when average growth before the pandemic was 2.5% and the U.S. added only about 6.4 million jobs.
There is a crucial divorce here between image and reality. Americans think our economy, currently the strongest in the world, is in poor shape. They mistakenly believe it was better under Trump.
That profound and measurable disjunction ought to make us sit up and take notice, especially as the Biden administration continues to try to make the economy responsive to ordinary Americans and the country continues to pay little attention. Today, for example, the White House announced an effort to turn the dual problems of empty office buildings and a shortage of affordable housing into a win-win. It announced a series of actions to convert vacant commercial properties to residential buildings. Their efforts are designed to create affordable, energy-efficient housing near public transportation and jobs.
(See Mickey's Heather post for the rest of the letter.)
For sure.
High interest rates and rising costs don't help people have confidence no matter what economists and wall street say.
I dontbattribute any success or failure either way to Trump or Biden when it comes to the economy. The real economy is more than a bunch of numbers and who won the quartenary presidential elections.
There are no kings inside the gates of eden
There are no kings inside the gates of eden
I'm absolutely blown away by the cost of housing nowadays. My wife and I (DINKs) spent $240,000 on ours and we just would not entertain $300,000. Meanwhile people making our money with kids are probably living in houses they payed $400,000 for and have two car payments. I don't know that I could endure the stress of that.
Like you said in a post above, I also don't want my value to go down but this all is a huge problem and I (admittedly in an extremely privaledged position) would make that sacrifice if housing was much more affordable. I honestly don't know how some people even live indoors anymore.
Morally speaking (i.e., with no thoughts on the market), a decent home should be very low six-figures. Given how much money people are making, that would serve us very well. Mansions that the common person cannot afford would still exist. Not everyone would have the perfect home, but they'd be able to get what they need without living check-to-check from age 25 to age 60.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
www.headstonesband.com
I agree and empathize with the plight of younger adults struggle to find affordable housing, and I agree with most everything you said. What I don't understand is the "boomers" bashing. What kind of shitty peers of mine are you hanging with?