Nick Cave has just cancelled his run of shows in Europe next year which was to run until end of June, basically saying it's unpredictable, here is your money back, let's do this when the end of this health crisis is more certain.
Spring shows are screwed for sure, and as he had so many shows scheduled for April, he didnt have much choice. There will be a huge wave of cancellations in the coming weeks for shows scheduled for the first half of the year. PJ's tour is really right on the cusp of being even theoretically viable IMO. But they're gonna have to open up music venues, theatres, sports stadiums sooner rather than later or the arts and sports sectors will be decimated. There will be a lot of pressure to open up these sectors by the summer, particularly if the vulnerable have already been vaccinated by then.
Indeed.
But I think opening up the sector to millionaire touring acts is not what is going to keep the sector alive. It's going to be getting the clubs and theatres running and booked again. Acts of PJ's stature should be able to survive this - it's the small/middle acts that we need to be concerned about.
Totally agree. The worry is that the smaller venues will be the ones to shut down permanently as a result of all this, depriving grass roots acts of a place to perform.
I think that getting the vulnerable vaccinated will be key.
If this is done, I would see the currently totally wrong comparisons to the flu come a little more valid. Those who are in danger become safe and those who are at low risk can decide if they want to get the additional security of a vaccine. The situation in the hospitals relaxes.
This situation combined with the pressure of a multi million dollar (music) industry and the possibilty to have test on entry as some kind of backup solution makes me feel slightly optimistic for summer here in Europe.
Major problem might be - as already mentioned on the thread - that not all european governments come to the same conclusions / regulations / get the vulnerable vaccinated fast enough... but if those are in the minority one or two cancelled shows might save the rest of the tour.
There will be pressure from a lot of businesses. Not just music acts. People love their sports everywhere. Restaurants want full capacity. Planes will be full with travelers. Museums want to open.
If the most at-risk are vaccinated, then let’s re-open.
Ok but realistically I don’t see Amsterdam on 6/16-6/17 happening. Maybe Berlin since it’s outside on 6/23. Maybe they push those 3 dates to the end after Prague
2003: Uniondale, MSG x2 | 2004: Reading | 2005: Gorge, Vancouver, Philly | 2006: East Rutherford x2, Gorge x2, Camden 1, Hartford | 2008: MSG x2, VA Beach | 2009: Philly x3 | 2010: MSG x2, Bristow | 2011: Alpine Valley x2 | 2012: MIA Philly | 2013: Wrigley, Charlottesville, Brooklyn 2 | 2014: Milan, Amsterdam 1 | 2016: MSG x2, Fenway x2, Wrigley 2 | 2018: Rome, Krakow, Berlin, Wrigley 2 | 2021: Sea Hear Now | 2022: San Diego, LA x2, MSG, Camden, Nashville, St. Louis, Denver | 2023: St. Paul 1, Chicago x2, Fort Worth x2, Austin 2 | 2024: Las Vegas 1, Seattle x2, Indy, MSG x2, Philly x2, Baltimore, Ohana 2
Ok but realistically I don’t see Amsterdam on 6/16-6/17 happening. Maybe Berlin since it’s outside on 6/23. Maybe they push those 3 dates to the end after Prague
I don't see any of it happening. Gonna be another year imo. Maybe small dates somewhere under special circumstances, but the band hasn't seemed that interested in that kind of thing much lately
Just cant see the Euro tour happening. Might be 7 months away but the logistics of it all seem too much. Interesting that here in Scotland after the initial lockdown, Covid 19 was close to being eliminated and substantially surpressed but then travel in the Summer introduced whole new strains resulting in the start of the 2nd wave. I think even with vaccinations there is going to be travel restrictions that make these events very difficult.
Just cant see the Euro tour happening. Might be 7 months away but the logistics of it all seem too much. Interesting that here in Scotland after the initial lockdown, Covid 19 was close to being eliminated and substantially surpressed but then travel in the Summer introduced whole new strains resulting in the start of the 2nd wave. I think even with vaccinations there is going to be travel restrictions that make these events very difficult.
10C forum - the forum of pessimists....
There’s a chance they will go ahead given the vaccine roll out. I also don’t think the entertainment industry can take another summer of shut down.
Just cant see the Euro tour happening. Might be 7 months away but the logistics of it all seem too much. Interesting that here in Scotland after the initial lockdown, Covid 19 was close to being eliminated and substantially surpressed but then travel in the Summer introduced whole new strains resulting in the start of the 2nd wave. I think even with vaccinations there is going to be travel restrictions that make these events very difficult.
10C forum - the forum of pessimists....
There’s a chance they will go ahead given the vaccine roll out. I also don’t think the entertainment industry can take another summer of shut down.
You are right, theres a chance but I would say its a very slim chance. So many unknowns and its just going to take time and it will be a gradual move to full arenas. 7 months just doesnt seem a long time and thats the realistic point of view.
Just cant see the Euro tour happening. Might be 7 months away but the logistics of it all seem too much. Interesting that here in Scotland after the initial lockdown, Covid 19 was close to being eliminated and substantially surpressed but then travel in the Summer introduced whole new strains resulting in the start of the 2nd wave. I think even with vaccinations there is going to be travel restrictions that make these events very difficult.
10C forum - the forum of pessimists....
There’s a chance they will go ahead given the vaccine roll out. I also don’t think the entertainment industry can take another summer of shut down.
He is just realistic. The entertainment industry is financially supported by states in Europe, they can deal with another summer of shut out it it’s necessary
Just cant see the Euro tour happening. Might be 7 months away but the logistics of it all seem too much. Interesting that here in Scotland after the initial lockdown, Covid 19 was close to being eliminated and substantially surpressed but then travel in the Summer introduced whole new strains resulting in the start of the 2nd wave. I think even with vaccinations there is going to be travel restrictions that make these events very difficult.
10C forum - the forum of pessimists....
There’s a chance they will go ahead given the vaccine roll out. I also don’t think the entertainment industry can take another summer of shut down.
You are right, theres a chance but I would say its a very slim chance. So many unknowns and its just going to take time and it will be a gradual move to full arenas. 7 months just doesnt seem a long time and thats the realistic point of view.
I think it will be postponed. It’s only just over 6 months until Amsterdam I. With the Pfizer vaccine I believe you need two doses several weeks apart and then it takes a couple weeks after the second dose before you’re really protected. Given that initial quantities in Q1 will be nowhere near sufficient for the population it just seems like it will take longer than until June to really have this under control. By September, maybe the numbers would work out better - they’ve done Europe in September before, although they are booked at two festivals in the US in Sept. as of now.
PJ: 2013: London (ON); Buffalo; 2014: Cincinnati; 2016: Sunrise, Miami, Toronto 1-2, Wrigley 2; 2018: London (UK) 1, Milan, Padova, Sea 2, Wrigley 1-2, Fenway 1-2; 2021: SHN, Ohana, Ohana Encore 1-2; 2022: LA 1-2, Phx, Oak 1-2, Fresno, Copenhagen, Hyde Park 1-2; Quebec, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto; MSG, Camden, Nashville, Louisville, St. Louis, OKC; 2023: St. Paul 1-2, Chicago 1-2; Fort Worth 2; Austin 1-2; 2024: Vancouver 1-2, LV 1-2, LA 1-2, Napa, Barcelona 1-2
EV Solo: 2017 Louisville and Franklin, 2018 Ohana, 2019 Innings Fest, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Dublin and Ohana; 2021 Ohana Friday (from beach) and Saturday; 2022 Earthlings Newark; 2023 Innings Fest and Benoraya 1-2.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
I think it all depends om how effective the vaccine is...it's probably very hard to predict at this point. Fingers crossed though...I'll be the first in line to take it...sick of beeing without live music.
Im going to keep my glass half full (even if me gut instinct tells me otherwise), I cannot wait to see these guys again, next summer would be the perfect lift. There is no harm in being hopeful,but I agree it is looking a touch unlikely.
Boris said yesterday that the UK has vaccinated 100,000 people already, and thats impressive given the short period of time its been out. However the stumbing block to that momentum appears to be the ability to get more shots into the country
Im going to keep my glass half full (even if me gut instinct tells me otherwise), I cannot wait to see these guys again, next summer would be the perfect lift. There is no harm in being hopeful,but I agree it is looking a touch unlikely.
Boris said yesterday that the UK has vaccinated 100,000 people already, and thats impressive given the short period of time its been out. However the stumbing block to that momentum appears to be the ability to get more shots into the country
Im crossing everything.
My understanding is the UK is heavily relying on the Oxford vaccine for the more massive rollout. First things first, that vaccine has to get approved. Hopefully the accidental wrong dose arm of the trial (which may end up inadvertently being the right dose, which would be incredible) will not delay that process.
PJ: 2013: London (ON); Buffalo; 2014: Cincinnati; 2016: Sunrise, Miami, Toronto 1-2, Wrigley 2; 2018: London (UK) 1, Milan, Padova, Sea 2, Wrigley 1-2, Fenway 1-2; 2021: SHN, Ohana, Ohana Encore 1-2; 2022: LA 1-2, Phx, Oak 1-2, Fresno, Copenhagen, Hyde Park 1-2; Quebec, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto; MSG, Camden, Nashville, Louisville, St. Louis, OKC; 2023: St. Paul 1-2, Chicago 1-2; Fort Worth 2; Austin 1-2; 2024: Vancouver 1-2, LV 1-2, LA 1-2, Napa, Barcelona 1-2
EV Solo: 2017 Louisville and Franklin, 2018 Ohana, 2019 Innings Fest, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Dublin and Ohana; 2021 Ohana Friday (from beach) and Saturday; 2022 Earthlings Newark; 2023 Innings Fest and Benoraya 1-2.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
Im going to keep my glass half full (even if me gut instinct tells me otherwise), I cannot wait to see these guys again, next summer would be the perfect lift. There is no harm in being hopeful,but I agree it is looking a touch unlikely.
Boris said yesterday that the UK has vaccinated 100,000 people already, and thats impressive given the short period of time its been out. However the stumbing block to that momentum appears to be the ability to get more shots into the country
Im crossing everything.
My understanding is the UK is heavily relying on the Oxford vaccine for the more massive rollout. First things first, that vaccine has to get approved. Hopefully the accidental wrong dose arm of the trial (which may end up inadvertently being the right dose, which would be incredible) will not delay that process.
We can but hope, the worry with that one is the success rate being sharply down on the 'difficult to store' version.......
... and if the powers that be hadn't dismissed the russian sputnik V vaccine as being useless, even though it has been peer reviewed TWICE in the lancet while the 'merkin and uk's have not, the vaccine could have been rolled out weeks ago. these are the same politicians that care so much for the people. ooo russia is so crap and theyre the enemy so we cant go to them to save u.s. and british lives.
... and if the powers that be hadn't dismissed the russian sputnik V vaccine as being useless, even though it has been peer reviewed TWICE in the lancet while the 'merkin and uk's have not, the vaccine could have been rolled out weeks ago. these are the same politicians that care so much for the people. ooo russia is so crap and theyre the enemy so we cant go to them to save u.s. and british lives.
59% of Russians are unwilling to take this vaccine according to a poll, and there are Russian media reports of empty vaccination clinics despite the jab being free. If the Russians are not confident in it, I’m not sure we should be.
Leeds, UK has plans to vaccinate everyone by May, still hopeful that the London shows will happen, stay positive
Neil Young & Pearl Jam Dublin 1995, Leeds Festival 2006, Manchester 2009, Manchester 2012, Leeds 2014, Amsterdam 2018, London 1 2022, London 2 2022 Manchester 2024
... and if the powers that be hadn't dismissed the russian sputnik V vaccine as being useless, even though it has been peer reviewed TWICE in the lancet while the 'merkin and uk's have not, the vaccine could have been rolled out weeks ago. these are the same politicians that care so much for the people. ooo russia is so crap and theyre the enemy so we cant go to them to save u.s. and british lives.
59% of Russians are unwilling to take this vaccine according to a poll, and there are Russian media reports of empty vaccination clinics despite the jab being free. If the Russians are not confident in it, I’m not sure we should be.
Really? You don't see why Russians would be more skeptical of what their government would inject in them? They're literally led by a murderous tyrant.
This show, another show, a show here and a show there.
Science and logistics suggests that concerts next summer will be risky indoors or outdoors.
Risky to who exactly if the vulnerable and old are vaccinated? This is a serious question and I am not trying to be smart with my response. I just don't get it if everyone that can get sick severely has been vaccinated already.
Science and logistics suggests that concerts next summer will be risky indoors or outdoors.
Risky to who exactly if the vulnerable and old are vaccinated? This is a serious question and I am not trying to be smart with my response. I just don't get it if everyone that can get sick severely has been vaccinated already.
I think the issue is they won't have been, vaccination plans are already slipping in the UK dates look like being months after initial plans
Science and logistics suggests that concerts next summer will be risky indoors or outdoors.
Risky to who exactly if the vulnerable and old are vaccinated? This is a serious question and I am not trying to be smart with my response. I just don't get it if everyone that can get sick severely has been vaccinated already.
I think the issue is they won't have been, vaccination plans are already slipping in the UK dates look like being months after initial plans
I tried that online calculator today and got a timescale for my category of Sept 21 based on my position in the queue.
That is based on a presumption of administering 1,000,000 a week and 70.6% uptake.
What wasnt clear was what effect there is on other vaccines being approved, presumably this would shorten massively?
Science and logistics suggests that concerts next summer will be risky indoors or outdoors.
Risky to who exactly if the vulnerable and old are vaccinated? This is a serious question and I am not trying to be smart with my response. I just don't get it if everyone that can get sick severely has been vaccinated already.
I think the issue is they won't have been, vaccination plans are already slipping in the UK dates look like being months after initial plans
I tried that online calculator today and got a timescale for my category of Sept 21 based on my position in the queue.
That is based on a presumption of administering 1,000,000 a week and 70.6% uptake.
What wasnt clear was what effect there is on other vaccines being approved, presumably this would shorten massively?
Not sure it would there is still the logistics of actually administering it second half of the year to have everyone done seems about right but let's hope its quicker, though im pretty sure whitty or someone said 1 million per week when the vaccine was announced
7 months is a long time from now. The pandemic is really only 10 months old from a response standpoint. Vaccinations are underway. My gut tells me it will take every bit of those 7 months to get this situation under control. I don't feel like PJ will be able to manage that kind of timeline. Seems like the vaccinations would have to be dropping the numbers significantly by April to have any chance of a summer tour. Is that possible? I have no idea. A more likely scenario is they postpone to fall 2021. I hope i'm wrong. I guess we have till April for refunds.
Oxford vaccine expected to get approval in the UK on the 28th or 29th of this month with mass roll out from beginning of January. IF that happens successfully maybe there is a chance fot the shows to go ahead
Comments
I think that getting the vulnerable vaccinated will be key.
If this is done, I would see the currently totally wrong comparisons to the flu come a little more valid. Those who are in danger become safe and those who are at low risk can decide if they want to get the additional security of a vaccine. The situation in the hospitals relaxes.
This situation combined with the pressure of a multi million dollar (music) industry and the possibilty to have test on entry as some kind of backup solution makes me feel slightly optimistic for summer here in Europe.
Major problem might be - as already mentioned on the thread - that not all european governments come to the same conclusions / regulations / get the vulnerable vaccinated fast enough... but if those are in the minority one or two cancelled shows might save the rest of the tour.
There’s a chance they will go ahead given the vaccine roll out. I also don’t think the entertainment industry can take another summer of shut down.
2014 : Amsterdam 1&2, Milan, Berlin, Werchter
2018 : Amsterdam 1&2, Pinkpop, London 1, Berlin, Werchter, London 2
2020 : ?
2021 - Asbury, Ohana 1
2022 - SD, LA1, LA2, Zurich, MSG, NJ, TN, KY, STL
2023 - SP1,SP2,CHI1,CH2,FTW1,FTW2,AUS1,AUS2
2024 - VAN1
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
anyway, dont see Sweden getting their shit together by Summer...
Boris said yesterday that the UK has vaccinated 100,000 people already, and thats impressive given the short period of time its been out. However the stumbing block to that momentum appears to be the ability to get more shots into the country
Im crossing everything.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
That is based on a presumption of administering 1,000,000 a week and 70.6% uptake.
What wasnt clear was what effect there is on other vaccines being approved, presumably this would shorten massively?