Ohana Festival Update

JH6056

beano.79 said:

Cases and deaths are the lowest they have been for 5 months here. I almost overdose on news about it 😂 and I have seen no talk of further lockdowns in London or elsewhere. Were still some long tough months away but it's all going in the right direction here. 

And infact I'm way off topic In a thread for Ohana fest so I'll leave it there 👍😂

Super happy to hear from another London dweller.  And you're not off-topic, this is about signs or likelihood that Ohana will happen as scheduled. Anything about festivals coming back online and timetables is relevant to any festival discussion.

I hope you're all right, hope this bodes very well for Ohana and others!

Luckytwn1

Well, the problem with Ohana is that again today Newsom left So Cal at the same restrictions. Still no movie theaters opening in Los Angeles, still no word on the Dodgers and Angels, still not a single fan has attended a sports event in CA since the pandemic began. 

The Biden news about enough vaccines by late May for all adults is great but as you can see from above, Newsom is going to move very very cautiously. So reading into things happening in the UK or even another state isn’t really going to work. 

JH6056

Luckytwn1 said:

Well, the problem with Ohana is that again today Newsom left So Cal at the same restrictions. Still no movie theaters opening in Los Angeles, still no word on the Dodgers and Angels, still not a single fan has attended a sports event in CA since the pandemic began. 

The Biden news about enough vaccines by late May for all adults is great but as you can see from above, Newsom is going to move very very cautiously. So reading into things happening in the UK or even another state isn’t really going to work. 

But by the same measure, if no one else anywhere else is even talking about getting festivals going again, wouldn't that bode even worse for California? Given the rollercoaster of breakouts and spikes that the biggest California cities have experienced, he's right to be careful and the more careful he is, the more hopeful I'd think it'll look for at least end of summer possibilities...   And for other festivals in other parts of the world that have had recent spikes to be announcing shows at least gives support to Newsom doing it when he thinks it's looking safe.

Does all of that seem true to you?

Luckytwn1

JH6056 said:

Luckytwn1 said:

Well, the problem with Ohana is that again today Newsom left So Cal at the same restrictions. Still no movie theaters opening in Los Angeles, still no word on the Dodgers and Angels, still not a single fan has attended a sports event in CA since the pandemic began. 

The Biden news about enough vaccines by late May for all adults is great but as you can see from above, Newsom is going to move very very cautiously. So reading into things happening in the UK or even another state isn’t really going to work. 

But by the same measure, if no one else anywhere else is even talking about getting festivals going again, wouldn't that bode even worse for California? Given the rollercoaster of breakouts and spikes that the biggest California cities have experienced, he's right to be careful and the more careful he is, the more hopeful I'd think it'll look for at least end of summer possibilities...   And for other festivals in other parts of the world that have had recent spikes to be announcing shows at least gives support to Newsom doing it when he thinks it's looking safe.

Does all of that seem true to you?

Nope. Many NFL cities hosted fans this year. If you used that as a guide, you would have expected CA to also have at least some fans in the stadiums. None were allowed. Ironically, the 49ers were forced to move to Arizona, they couldn’t play even without fans, at a time when Arizona’s numbers were much worse than here and Arizona was hosting fans at that time. So trying to draw conclusions from other jurisdictions isn’t going to work. While So Cal got really bad in December/January, for much of the year we were much better off per capita than many other locales. Those places had movie theaters open. Not a single patron has attended a movie in LA since last March.

We are at zero percent in terms of allowed crowds. Until we get info on when at least 50 percent will be admitted to say Dodger Stadium, I would not get too excited about Ohana. And again Dodger Stadium can adapt in days. Ohana they have a hard deadline when they will have to make a call on whether to proceed in 2021. We just don’t know what it is.

RatherStarved

They pulled the plug on Ohana 2020 in June, so we have a few months to see what happens.  If there are really enough vaccines for all Americans by the end of May then presumably by June there will be a decent indication of the impact of that.  I do agree that until something of a smaller scale occurs in the state it’s not just going to go from zero to Ohana.

JH6056

Ok, that all makes sense what you've both said (last 2 posts).

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan

RatherStarved said:

They pulled the plug on Ohana 2020 in June, so we have a few months to see what happens.  If there are really enough vaccines for all Americans by the end of May then presumably by June there will be a decent indication of the impact of that.  I do agree that until something of a smaller scale occurs in the state it’s not just going to go from zero to Ohana.

I still believe the issue at hand is the international travellers from Canada, Australia, uk, etc. 

Luckytwn1

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

RatherStarved said:

They pulled the plug on Ohana 2020 in June, so we have a few months to see what happens.  If there are really enough vaccines for all Americans by the end of May then presumably by June there will be a decent indication of the impact of that.  I do agree that until something of a smaller scale occurs in the state it’s not just going to go from zero to Ohana.

I still believe the issue at hand is the international travellers from Canada, Australia, uk, etc. 

That is not the issue at all. How could that be the issue when Los Angeles is at zero percent capacity allowed?

PJNB

Luckytwn1 said:

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

RatherStarved said:

They pulled the plug on Ohana 2020 in June, so we have a few months to see what happens.  If there are really enough vaccines for all Americans by the end of May then presumably by June there will be a decent indication of the impact of that.  I do agree that until something of a smaller scale occurs in the state it’s not just going to go from zero to Ohana.

I still believe the issue at hand is the international travellers from Canada, Australia, uk, etc. 

That is not the issue at all. How could that be the issue when Los Angeles is at zero percent capacity allowed?

No one is talking about the rules today though. They are talking about the rules in late September where presumably all eligible Americans who want one will have had the vaccine for at least a month or two depending on roll out. People have to wear masks and socially distance now if they get vaccinated due to a number of reasons to keep protecting the population that has yet to have been given it. What will the restrictions be when that is no longer necessary? I am hoping all restrictions are lifted. 

whitepants

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

RatherStarved said:

They pulled the plug on Ohana 2020 in June, so we have a few months to see what happens.  If there are really enough vaccines for all Americans by the end of May then presumably by June there will be a decent indication of the impact of that.  I do agree that until something of a smaller scale occurs in the state it’s not just going to go from zero to Ohana.

I still believe the issue at hand is the international travellers from Canada, Australia, uk, etc. 

Those travelers will have to test negative of Covid to board the flight to arrive into the states. So if Ohana is a go, I think with it not being completely sold out, they might not sell any more tickets, and along with those who sought refunds, and with everyone hopefully being vaccinated by late June, Ohana could still happen, but with a smaller crowd.

Luckytwn1

whitepants said:

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

RatherStarved said:

They pulled the plug on Ohana 2020 in June, so we have a few months to see what happens.  If there are really enough vaccines for all Americans by the end of May then presumably by June there will be a decent indication of the impact of that.  I do agree that until something of a smaller scale occurs in the state it’s not just going to go from zero to Ohana.

I still believe the issue at hand is the international travellers from Canada, Australia, uk, etc. 

Those travelers will have to test negative of Covid to board the flight to arrive into the states. So if Ohana is a go, I think with it not being completely sold out, they might not sell any more tickets, and along with those who sought refunds, and with everyone hopefully being vaccinated by late June, Ohana could still happen, but with a smaller crowd.

Of course, the festival has already signed contracts and bands being paid full rates. So not so simple just to say the crowd will be smaller. The economics will likely not work in that scenario. Ohana is run by Ed so there may be more flexibility but in general, festivals are going to have issues if they can’t have full crowds and they’re on the hook for full rates for the performers. 

JOEJOEJOE

Luckytwn1 said:

whitepants said:

LeafsJaysCubsRaptorsFan said:

RatherStarved said:

They pulled the plug on Ohana 2020 in June, so we have a few months to see what happens.  If there are really enough vaccines for all Americans by the end of May then presumably by June there will be a decent indication of the impact of that.  I do agree that until something of a smaller scale occurs in the state it’s not just going to go from zero to Ohana.

I still believe the issue at hand is the international travellers from Canada, Australia, uk, etc. 

Those travelers will have to test negative of Covid to board the flight to arrive into the states. So if Ohana is a go, I think with it not being completely sold out, they might not sell any more tickets, and along with those who sought refunds, and with everyone hopefully being vaccinated by late June, Ohana could still happen, but with a smaller crowd.

Of course, the festival has already signed contracts and bands being paid full rates. So not so simple just to say the crowd will be smaller. The economics will likely not work in that scenario. Ohana is run by Ed so there may be more flexibility but in general, festivals are going to have issues if they can’t have full crowds and they’re on the hook for full rates for the performers. 

Often times, promoters get bands to lower their guarantees if tickets sales are much less than expected, etc..  Livenation is the promoter for Ohana, so perhaps they may ask the acts to take less so that the show may happen.

Luckytwn1

As someone who negotiates talent deals regularly, of course, anything can be renegotiated but guarantees are included in contracts for a reason.  

PJNB

2020 Fall tour was booked with the new spring dates mixed in. They are doing this for this fall as well I can guarantee with zero insider knowledge. Once that gets pushed they will move to winter/spring 2022 and if that gets pushed fall 2022. Thats how this will go until its safe to have shows. 

RatherStarved

I am trying to be cautiously optimistic about outdoor shows this September, although Luckytwn1 has proven over time to be more a realist than a pessimist.  I really can’t see any way for there to be packed indoor shows this year.  That’s a whole other level.  As has been said by others, I’ll gladly be wrong and see everyone there.  If we get some combo of Ohana, SHN or stadium shows this year, and park everything else for next, I’ll be happier than a, well, you know.

Luckytwn1

PJNB said:

2020 Fall tour was booked with the new spring dates mixed in. They are doing this for this fall as well I can guarantee with zero insider knowledge. Once that gets pushed they will move to winter/spring 2022 and if that gets pushed fall 2022. Thats how this will go until its safe to have shows. 

There is no chance anyone is planning indoor shows for this year at the moment. That’s why you’re seeing all dates rescheduled for 2022. Like Clapton, who just canceled his arena tour and moved it to summer 2022. 

PJNB

Luckytwn1 said:

PJNB said:

2020 Fall tour was booked with the new spring dates mixed in. They are doing this for this fall as well I can guarantee with zero insider knowledge. Once that gets pushed they will move to winter/spring 2022 and if that gets pushed fall 2022. Thats how this will go until its safe to have shows. 

There is no chance anyone is planning indoor shows for this year at the moment. That’s why you’re seeing all dates rescheduled for 2022. Like Clapton, who just canceled his arena tour and moved it to summer 2022. 

We will never know unless someone that is privy to the info leaks it out but if I was a betting man last August when they knew fall 2020 was a no go they definitely put 2021 dates on the board in hope they could happen and they would be ready for it. I am not talking about ever announcing something I am talking about holding dates like they did for fall 2020. 

JOEJOEJOE

Luckytwn1 said:

As someone who negotiates talent deals regularly, of course, anything can be renegotiated but guarantees are included in contracts for a reason.  

I agree that guarantees are important, but in this extenuating circumstance, some bands may accept reductions.

Luckytwn1

PJNB said:

Luckytwn1 said:

PJNB said:

2020 Fall tour was booked with the new spring dates mixed in. They are doing this for this fall as well I can guarantee with zero insider knowledge. Once that gets pushed they will move to winter/spring 2022 and if that gets pushed fall 2022. Thats how this will go until its safe to have shows. 

There is no chance anyone is planning indoor shows for this year at the moment. That’s why you’re seeing all dates rescheduled for 2022. Like Clapton, who just canceled his arena tour and moved it to summer 2022. 

We will never know unless someone that is privy to the info leaks it out but if I was a betting man last August when they knew fall 2020 was a no go they definitely put 2021 dates on the board in hope they could happen and they would be ready for it. I am not talking about ever announcing something I am talking about holding dates like they did for fall 2020. 

Could people place holds just to have them in case of a miracle? Sure because a hold costs you nothing. But I’ve spoken to a lot of people in the music industry and I don’t know one that thinks there will be arena shows in 2021 with full capacity and that’s what would be required for Pearl Jam as they’ve already sold the full buildings. Complicating it further is that PJ is going to be be ultra-cautious as we saw when they were the first band to cancel last year. There is very little chance PJ is playing arena shows in 2021. That is reality. 

PJNB

Luckytwn1 said:

PJNB said:

Luckytwn1 said:

PJNB said:

2020 Fall tour was booked with the new spring dates mixed in. They are doing this for this fall as well I can guarantee with zero insider knowledge. Once that gets pushed they will move to winter/spring 2022 and if that gets pushed fall 2022. Thats how this will go until its safe to have shows. 

There is no chance anyone is planning indoor shows for this year at the moment. That’s why you’re seeing all dates rescheduled for 2022. Like Clapton, who just canceled his arena tour and moved it to summer 2022. 

We will never know unless someone that is privy to the info leaks it out but if I was a betting man last August when they knew fall 2020 was a no go they definitely put 2021 dates on the board in hope they could happen and they would be ready for it. I am not talking about ever announcing something I am talking about holding dates like they did for fall 2020. 

Could people place holds just to have them in case of a miracle? Sure because a hold costs you nothing. But I’ve spoken to a lot of people in the music industry and I don’t know one that thinks there will be arena shows in 2021 with full capacity and that’s what would be required for Pearl Jam as they’ve already sold the full buildings. Complicating it further is that PJ is going to be be ultra-cautious as we saw when they were the first band to cancel last year. There is very little chance PJ is playing arena shows in 2021. That is reality. 

I think we are on the same page here about no shows happening this year for PJ and all I am saying is behind the scenes they have holds.