The coronavirus

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  • SpunkieSpunkie Posts: 6,655
    edited February 2021
    Canada's monthly modelling update 



    And if we keep variants out...


    https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/epidemiological-economic-research-data/mathematical-modelling.html

    With variants, in BC the only way we can tighten up is close business and school... anyhow back to enjoying the brief lull between waves. Cheers.
    Post edited by Spunkie on
  • Well I survived  what I can only describe  as hell for 36 hours. I decided  to not take paracetamol so my body could fully mount an immune  response.  
    I have other issues so it was rough but I would still do same again . So many people suffering we must all do this together. 
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    this song is meant to be called i got shit,itshould be called i got shit tickets-hartford 06 -
  • Preliminary data suggest that one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech may provide as much protection as two. If this bears out it is a major leap forward, as it will allow us to vaccinate far more people more quickly. Perhaps we then come back later and give everyone a second dose.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-experts-studying-evidence-suggesting-one-dose-of-pfizers-covid/

    There is compelling evidence that a single dose of COVID-19 vaccines may provide almost as much protection as giving two doses, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer said Thursday.

    Dr. Howard Njoo said the advisory committee of federal and provincial public health officers is having an active discussion about whether Canada would be better served to delay the second doses of vaccines in a bid to give protection to more vulnerable people quicker.

    “These are what I would call early data in terms of a vaccine effectiveness or studies,” he said. “And the indications are that there’s a good level of protection after just one dose.”

    Canada intends to vaccinate three million people with two doses by the end of March.

    More than 990,000 Canadians have received at least one dose, and about one-third of those have also received their second doses.

    Quebec’s immunization committee went as far Thursday as to recommend nobody get a second dose until a first dose is injected into everyone in six high-risk groups, including people over 70, health-care workers, and people who live in long-term care homes and retirement residences.

    The committee reported that single doses have been 80 per cent effective at preventing COVID-19 so far among long-term care residents and health workers who were vaccinated.

    Questions about delaying the second doses arose almost as soon as vaccinations began in December, prompting a whirlwind of debate among scientists about the ethics of “going off label.”

    Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna’s vaccines – the two currently authorized in Canada – were tested by giving two doses, 21 days and 28 days apart respectively.

    But Dr. Danuta Skowronski, the epidemiology lead for influenza and emerging respiratory pathogens at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, said data show two weeks after one dose of either vaccine, the protection against COVID-19 was almost as good as what was found after two doses.

    Skowronski and Dr. Dr. Gaston De Serres from the Institut national de sante publique du Quebec made the case in a letter published in the New England Journal of Medicine this week.

    Moderna reported itself that two weeks after one dose, those who got the vaccine were 92 per cent less likely to develop COVID-19 symptoms.

    Pfizer and BioNTech, whose vaccine uses similar genetic technology to Moderna’s, said their vaccine was 52 per cent effective after one dose, but 94.5 per cent effective after two.

    Skowronski said Pfizer started measuring illness as soon as the injections were given, which she said is “unreasonable.”

    “It’s basic vaccinology that you don’t expect the vaccine to activate the immune system instantaneously,” she said, in an interview with The Canadian Press.

    Skowronski said if you wait two weeks to start counting infections, there were 92 per cent fewer infections of COVID-19 among those who got one dose of the vaccine, compared with those who got the placebo.

    At that level of protection, she said “we need to get a first dose into our priority populations, and the most vulnerable of those at greatest risk of severe outcomes and the precious resource of our front-line health-care workers.”

    She said the second dose should eventually be given but said there isn’t a maximum time she would put on how long to wait.

    Pfizer has issued caution about adjusting the dosing schedule but said the decision to do so rests with local authorities.

    “We at Pfizer believe that it is critical for health authorities to carry on surveillance on implemented alternative dosing schedules to ensure that vaccines provide the maximum possible protection,” the company’s statement reads.

    Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization said in January that the recommended schedule should be followed wherever possible but that delaying a second dose up to six weeks could be beneficial, particularly with a shortage of supplies and a fast-spreading virus.

    Skowronski said waiting six weeks instead of three or four for a second dose won’t do much.

    “That’s not maximizing coverage that we need to undertake with the scarcity of the vaccine that is available now.”

    Several provinces have been delaying the second doses a couple of weeks, particularly as deliveries of both Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine and Moderna’s slowed to a crawl in mid-January.

    Those delays appear to be over. Pfizer says it will ship nearly three million doses over the next six weeks, and Moderna promises to ship more than 1.4 million.

    With the two authorized vaccines, and the two-dose schedule followed, Canada expects to vaccinate 14.5 million people by the end of June and all Canadians who want to be immunized by the end of September.

    A new vaccination schedule issued Thursday shows if the other three vaccines currently being reviewed get approved by Health Canada, 24.5 million Canadians could be vaccinated before Canada Day.


    Great news. In UK we have done this  . Well streched out the doses and it covers double obviously  .  Game changer. Esspecaily in large populations
    brixton 93
    astoria 06
    albany 06
    hartford 06
    reading 06
    barcelona 06
    paris 06
    wembley 07
    dusseldorf 07
    nijmegen 07

    this song is meant to be called i got shit,itshould be called i got shit tickets-hartford 06 -
  • GlowGirl said:
    My parents just got their second shot today. Their health has been my main worry since this whole thing started. So, I am very relieved. I hope to be able to visit them in mid March for my mom’s birthday. It has been so long since I have seen them. 
    Great to hear that some of the worry can finally  abate
    brixton 93
    astoria 06
    albany 06
    hartford 06
    reading 06
    barcelona 06
    paris 06
    wembley 07
    dusseldorf 07
    nijmegen 07

    this song is meant to be called i got shit,itshould be called i got shit tickets-hartford 06 -
  • GlowGirlGlowGirl Posts: 10,884
    GlowGirl said:
    My parents just got their second shot today. Their health has been my main worry since this whole thing started. So, I am very relieved. I hope to be able to visit them in mid March for my mom’s birthday. It has been so long since I have seen them. 
    Great to hear that some of the worry can finally  abate
    Thanks. For you too. I am sorry you had such bad side effects but now you know your immune system can handle it. I hope you feel better with the second shot. 
  • oftenreadingoftenreading Posts: 12,845

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/health/covid-vaccine-single-dose.html?referringSource=articleShare

    Preliminary data suggests that people who have had covid-19 should still get vaccinated, but one dose may be enough. A single dose of vaccine seems to markedly increase the circulating antibodies in a way that may be more effective than the two doses in a person who has never had COVID. 
    my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
  • jpgoegeljpgoegel Posts: 412
    I spent the day helping people 75+ schedule their second appointment, after getting their first one in a super vaccine site that was just set up this week.   It was so nice to see so many people happy and what I presume was a large weight lifted off them. 
  • oftenreadingoftenreading Posts: 12,845
    jpgoegel said:
    I spent the day helping people 75+ schedule their second appointment, after getting their first one in a super vaccine site that was just set up this week.   It was so nice to see so many people happy and what I presume was a large weight lifted off them. 
    A very worthwhile thing to do. It sounds as if the vaccination scheduling process is a real bugbear in some states. 
    my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
  • oftenreadingoftenreading Posts: 12,845
    A study in Israel suggests that use of hypromellose (hydroxypropyl methylcellulose) in nasal spray form can significantly reduce the risk of contracting covid, as long as you use the spray as described, which I think is every five hours. It was studied in an ultra orthodox population who continued mass gatherings without masks, etc. 

    It’s a semi-synthetic cellulose powder that forms a gel like layer in the nose to block the ability of the viral particles to enter the cells. 



    my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
  • 23scidoo23scidoo Posts: 19,233

    Athens 2006. Dusseldorf 2007. Berlin 2009. Venice 2010. Amsterdam 1 2012. Amsterdam 1+2 2014. Buenos Aires 2015.
    Prague Krakow Berlin 2018. Berlin 2022
    EV, Taormina 1+2 2017.

    I wish i was the souvenir you kept your house key on..
  • 23scidoo23scidoo Posts: 19,233
    Athens 2006. Dusseldorf 2007. Berlin 2009. Venice 2010. Amsterdam 1 2012. Amsterdam 1+2 2014. Buenos Aires 2015.
    Prague Krakow Berlin 2018. Berlin 2022
    EV, Taormina 1+2 2017.

    I wish i was the souvenir you kept your house key on..
  • I understand why the considerable decline in cases is not being reported. But at some point it’s going to be hard to argue how much closer we are to herd immunity than anyone in the government or media wants to tell us. It’s such a delicate balance, tell people things improving and they will behave in a way to make things worse. But if the numbers continue to trend down as most experts predict this is going to be a fascinating summer. I’ve predicted civil unrest on a mass scale and still stand by this. Strict public health measures and a healthy functioning economy will never align themselves. Interesting article below...

    06/22/95, 11/04/95, 11/15/97, 07/16/98, 10/30/99, 10/30/00, 10/31/00, 10/20/01, 10/21/01, 12/08/02, 06/01/03, 06/06/03, 10/25/03, 10/26/03, 09/28/04, 03/18/05, 09/01/05, 07/15/06, 07/16/06, 07/18/06, 07/22/06, 07/23/06, 10/21/06, 10/22/06, 08/28/09, 09/21/09, 09/22/09, 05/20/10, 05/21/10, 10/24/10, 11/26/13, 12/06/13, 06/28/14, 10/26/14, 07/10/18, 08/10/18, 10/02/21, 
  • PJNBPJNB Posts: 13,434
    edited February 2021
    I understand why the considerable decline in cases is not being reported. But at some point it’s going to be hard to argue how much closer we are to herd immunity than anyone in the government or media wants to tell us. It’s such a delicate balance, tell people things improving and they will behave in a way to make things worse. But if the numbers continue to trend down as most experts predict this is going to be a fascinating summer. I’ve predicted civil unrest on a mass scale and still stand by this. Strict public health measures and a healthy functioning economy will never align themselves. Interesting article below...

    All this talk about masking up and distancing until the end of the year is really not going to fly well if this date is true. The goal posts constantly moving on what herd immunity is and what is needed to ease restrictions is getting to be ridiculous imo. We were always told that we are doing this to protect the old and vulnerable, to keep the healthcare system from collapsing due to so many hospitalizations from the virus. Now it is all about cases and whether they are sick or not does not matter which is wrong imo. Also I get we need to be aware of the variants as they come along but the news cycle of doom and gloom every time one pops up with no solid info behind the variant is tiring and dangerous. 

    This last paragraph says it all. There is a fine line that needs to be walked here but it needs to be done and just keeping everything shut down is not the way to do it. 


    Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.



    Post edited by PJNB on
  • PJNBPJNB Posts: 13,434

    Look at these number comparisons for NJ. Those death rate drop offs are amazing to see.  

    Jan 5
    NJ Daily Numbers:

    +5400 new PCR cases (499636 total)
    +138 deaths (17361 total)

    Rate of transmission is 0.94
    3702 people in hospitals
    679 in ICU
    481 on ventilators

    Feb 21
    NJ Daily Numbers:

    +1814 new PCR cases (682746 total)
    +25 deaths (20569 total)

    Total vaccinations 1605744
    Rate of transmission is 0.8
    2065 people in hospitals
    434 in ICU
    288 on ventilators
  • PJNB said:
    I understand why the considerable decline in cases is not being reported. But at some point it’s going to be hard to argue how much closer we are to herd immunity than anyone in the government or media wants to tell us. It’s such a delicate balance, tell people things improving and they will behave in a way to make things worse. But if the numbers continue to trend down as most experts predict this is going to be a fascinating summer. I’ve predicted civil unrest on a mass scale and still stand by this. Strict public health measures and a healthy functioning economy will never align themselves. Interesting article below...

    All this talk about masking up and distancing until the end of the year is really not going to fly well if this date is true. The goal posts constantly moving on what herd immunity is and what is needed to ease restrictions is getting to be ridiculous imo. We were always told that we are doing this to protect the old and vulnerable, to keep the healthcare system from collapsing due to so many hospitalizations from the virus. Now it is all about cases and whether they are sick or not does not matter which is wrong imo. Also I get we need to be aware of the variants as they come along but the news cycle of doom and gloom every time one pops up with no solid info behind the variant is tiring and dangerous. 

    This last paragraph says it all. There is a fine line that needs to be walked here but it needs to be done and just keeping everything shut down is not the way to do it. 


    Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.



    Exactly, we are now a year in, have multiple vaccines that are virtually 100% effective at preventing serious illness, even from the variants. Yet as you say the goal posts move almost daily. Fauci recently said a family fully vaccinated family should be fine to interact normally (hug without masks) but yet as a society we are stuck in this disfigured state for another 18 months? It’s going to fascinating to see where we are once the vaccine is available to everyone and hospital numbers are a fraction of where they are now. A point I believe we reach in late summer. I see things getting ugly even before that point if restrictions are not loosened, kids in school, etc. But only if the data proves it is safe to begin a true recovery. Problem being the data is coming from a hundred different places at this point. Even scientists are becoming fractured into different camps, just look at the debate on holding back the 2nd vaccine dose. I feel stupid even debating this right now because I don’t believe we are as close as April. But I do believe there is a serious reckoning coming at some point this year.
    06/22/95, 11/04/95, 11/15/97, 07/16/98, 10/30/99, 10/30/00, 10/31/00, 10/20/01, 10/21/01, 12/08/02, 06/01/03, 06/06/03, 10/25/03, 10/26/03, 09/28/04, 03/18/05, 09/01/05, 07/15/06, 07/16/06, 07/18/06, 07/22/06, 07/23/06, 10/21/06, 10/22/06, 08/28/09, 09/21/09, 09/22/09, 05/20/10, 05/21/10, 10/24/10, 11/26/13, 12/06/13, 06/28/14, 10/26/14, 07/10/18, 08/10/18, 10/02/21, 
  • hedonisthedonist Posts: 24,524
    23scidoo said:

    How can that be?
  • oftenreadingoftenreading Posts: 12,845
    23scidoo said:


    What is being implied by this expiry date, as far as you know?

    I have read that the Greek officials have said they are being "very conservative" in estimating the length of immunity provided by vaccines when issuing these "certificates". Based on what you've posted, "conservative" seems to be months.
    my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
  • had a virtual info night for my grade niner's grade 10 registration and planning. it was revealed they are currently planning on the 2021/2022 school year to be half days like it is now. 

    fuck me. 
    new album "Cigarettes" out Spring 2025!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • 23scidoo23scidoo Posts: 19,233
    hedonist said:
    23scidoo said:

    How can that be?
    23scidoo said:


    What is being implied by this expiry date, as far as you know?

    I have read that the Greek officials have said they are being "very conservative" in estimating the length of immunity provided by vaccines when issuing these "certificates". Based on what you've posted, "conservative" seems to be months.
    I just hope it's not true..
    Athens 2006. Dusseldorf 2007. Berlin 2009. Venice 2010. Amsterdam 1 2012. Amsterdam 1+2 2014. Buenos Aires 2015.
    Prague Krakow Berlin 2018. Berlin 2022
    EV, Taormina 1+2 2017.

    I wish i was the souvenir you kept your house key on..
  • PoncierPoncier Posts: 16,890
    had a virtual info night for my grade niner's grade 10 registration and planning. it was revealed they are currently planning on the 2021/2022 school year to be half days like it is now. 

    fuck me. 
    That seems crazy given that by September pretty much everyone who wants to should be vaccinated.
    This weekend we rock Portland
  • Poncier said:
    had a virtual info night for my grade niner's grade 10 registration and planning. it was revealed they are currently planning on the 2021/2022 school year to be half days like it is now. 

    fuck me. 
    That seems crazy given that by September pretty much everyone who wants to should be vaccinated.
    not in manitoba. 
    new album "Cigarettes" out Spring 2025!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • PJNBPJNB Posts: 13,434
    edited February 2021
    Poncier said:
    had a virtual info night for my grade niner's grade 10 registration and planning. it was revealed they are currently planning on the 2021/2022 school year to be half days like it is now. 

    fuck me. 
    That seems crazy given that by September pretty much everyone who wants to should be vaccinated.
    not in manitoba. 
    I still think we will be on for that timeline. I do not think we will meet the whole population of Canada but that will not matter since 40% plus will not get vaccinated this year due to age or being anti vaxxers 
    Post edited by PJNB on
  • Meltdown99Meltdown99 Posts: 10,739
    Things will not return to normal in a Canada until we have herd immunity, sometime in 23/24...
    Give Peas A Chance…
  • PJNBPJNB Posts: 13,434
    edited February 2021
    Things will not return to normal in a Canada until we have herd immunity, sometime in 23/24...
    Whats with all of the doomsposting from you? It gets tiring reading this shit everyday. 
  • Meltdown99Meltdown99 Posts: 10,739
    PJNB said:
    Things will not return to normal in a Canada until we have herd immunity, sometime in 23/24...
    Whats with all of the doomsposting from you? It gets tiring reading this shit everyday. 
    Then don’t read my post.  Pretty simple.  It’s not my problem you don’t get sarcasm...

    but yes your racist PM has totally screwed up the vaccine acquisition...as far as I’m concerned Canadians dying from this viruse is on the federal government shoulders to point....

    you are free to move on or use the ignore feature....

    at least some of us know that Trudeau is the most incompetent PM EVER....and it’s not even close....
    Give Peas A Chance…
  • PJNBPJNB Posts: 13,434
    edited February 2021
    PJNB said:
    Things will not return to normal in a Canada until we have herd immunity, sometime in 23/24...
    Whats with all of the doomsposting from you? It gets tiring reading this shit everyday. 
    Then don’t read my post.  Pretty simple.  It’s not my problem you don’t get sarcasm...

    but yes your racist PM has totally screwed up the vaccine acquisition...as far as I’m concerned Canadians dying from this viruse is on the federal government shoulders to point....

    you are free to move on or use the ignore feature....

    at least some of us know that Trudeau is the most incompetent PM EVER....and it’s not even close....
    Oh sarcasm gotcha. What does your doomposting have to do with Trudeau though? 
  • Meltdown99Meltdown99 Posts: 10,739
    PJNB said:
    PJNB said:
    Things will not return to normal in a Canada until we have herd immunity, sometime in 23/24...
    Whats with all of the doomsposting from you? It gets tiring reading this shit everyday. 
    Then don’t read my post.  Pretty simple.  It’s not my problem you don’t get sarcasm...

    but yes your racist PM has totally screwed up the vaccine acquisition...as far as I’m concerned Canadians dying from this viruse is on the federal government shoulders to point....

    you are free to move on or use the ignore feature....

    at least some of us know that Trudeau is the most incompetent PM EVER....and it’s not even close....
    Oh sarcasm gotcha. What does your doomposting have to do with Trudeau though? 
    Did you even read?  He wanted to be the one acquiring the vaccines...and the dummy jumped in bed with China and screwed us on vaccine. Trudeau is in love with China.  Why.  His love with China is now costing Canadians their lives...talk about an out of touch loser he is...has Canadians ever given this clown the idea that we want to be friends with China...NO we have not....China is a stain on the world and he got in bed with the CCP....ands it’s costing people their health and lives....


    Give Peas A Chance…
  • oftenreadingoftenreading Posts: 12,845
    PJNB said:
    PJNB said:
    Things will not return to normal in a Canada until we have herd immunity, sometime in 23/24...
    Whats with all of the doomsposting from you? It gets tiring reading this shit everyday. 
    Then don’t read my post.  Pretty simple.  It’s not my problem you don’t get sarcasm...

    but yes your racist PM has totally screwed up the vaccine acquisition...as far as I’m concerned Canadians dying from this viruse is on the federal government shoulders to point....

    you are free to move on or use the ignore feature....

    at least some of us know that Trudeau is the most incompetent PM EVER....and it’s not even close....
    Oh sarcasm gotcha. What does your doomposting have to do with Trudeau though? 
    Did you even read?  He wanted to be the one acquiring the vaccines...and the dummy jumped in bed with China and screwed us on vaccine. Trudeau is in love with China.  Why.  His love with China is now costing Canadians their lives...talk about an out of touch loser he is...has Canadians ever given this clown the idea that we want to be friends with China...NO we have not....China is a stain on the world and he got in bed with the CCP....ands it’s costing people their health and lives....


    Huh.

    Well, that has pretty much zero to do with the status of of vaccines in Canada. 


    my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf
  • the people blaming trudeau for lack of vaccine manufacturing here are the same people that would have called him an idiot if he had brought it back 5 years ago. 
    new album "Cigarettes" out Spring 2025!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • PJNBPJNB Posts: 13,434
    Back on some positive news. UK just had a major announcement and I hope NA follows suit with a similar positive announcement. This is how you roll out how to reopen. Not the trickles of negative news we have been getting the last couple of months even with vaccines rolling out and numbers dropping off. 

    May be an image of text that says COVID-1 RESPONSE SPRING The Roadmap steps Step 1 Figure 9 Step 1 STEP 1 8 March Schools and colleges are open students Practical Higher Education Courses Recreation or exercise outdoors household other person No household mixing indoors  Wraparound childcare Stay at home Funerals 30 wakes and weddings 6 29 March  Rule of6 two households outdoors household mixing indoors Outdoor sport leisure facilities Organised outdoor sport allowed children and adults Minimise travel No holidays   Outdoor parent child groups up 5 parents

    May be an image of text that says Step 2 Figure 10 Step 2 STEP 2 At least five weeks after Step no earlier than April Indoor leisure including open individually within household groups  Rule of6 or two households outdoors No household mixing indoors Outdoor attractions such theme parks and drive-in cinemas Libraries and community centres FEES Personal care premises All retail Outdoor hospitality All childrens activities indoor parent child groups up 15 parents Domestic overnight stays household only Self-contained accommodation household only Funerals 30 wakes weddings receptions 15 TICKET Minimise travel international holidays Event pilots begin

    May be an image of text that says Step 3 Figure 11 Step 3 STEP 3 At least five weeks after Step earlier than 17 May Indoor entertainment and attractions  30 person limit outdoors Rule of6 two households indoors subjecto review Domestic overnight stays Organised indoor adult sport Most significant life events 30 Remaining outdoor entertainment including performances Remaining accommodation Some large events except pilots capacity limits apply Indoor events 1000 50 Outdoor other events 4000 50 Outdoor seated events 10000 25 International travel subject review

    May be an image of text that says Step 4 Figure 12 Step STEP At least five weeks after Step 3 no earlier than 21 June By Step 4 the Government hopes to be able to introduce the following subject to review  No limits Nolegamt on social contact Nightclubs TICKET Larger events Noll all legal limit on life events 
This discussion has been closed.