North American Tour Odds

Lerxst1992

ecdanc said:

front spacer said:

JP218404 said:

josevolution said:

So NY & Baltimore get the most request! What is it about the northeast that people clamor for so much ..

NYC, Boston and Philly. Major markets for the band in the early days and continues to be so demand way higher. 

Dense population, easy mass transit, lack of shows this tour....

The population is quite dense.

I certainly am

Lerxst1992

tdawe said:

Hey, for comparison purposes does anyone remember the odds for TotD at MSG in 2016?

I remember sitting at work a few hours before that show saying wtf is wrong with you Stub hub for lower side stage around $150. Get off your a$$ and go now. Glad I did. 6 mos later

clpdot133

Any reason to be concerned if I haven't seen the $1 charge on my CC yet? I did receive the email confirming my request for tickets.

front spacer

bbiggs said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

ecdanc said:

bbiggs said:

front spacer said:

cincybearcat said:

Sarava said:

cincybearcat said:

djbrothers said:

Well, the window has closed. I just took a look at the Pre-sale Timeline page on 10C and it looks like all Canadian dates should  be drawn today. Herrrrre we go!

For anybody questioning my sanity, I always wake up this early - not just to check in on all-things PJ.

Did you happen to see the final odds? Not available on the page anymore 

Dimi posted these on facebook:

Toronto: 32/99
Ottawa: 56/99
Quebec City: 795/99
Hamilton: 40/99
Baltimore: 14/65
NYC: 9/57
Nashville: 21/99
St Louis: 22/99
OKC: 63/99
Denver: 21/99
Glendale: 36/99
San Diego: 34/99
LA: 28/99; 26/99
Oak: 30/99; 37/99

Thank you for this. Appreciate it.

So ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC are locks to get seats if you wanted them with ANY priority designation....

At 20% or so, I wonder if GA tickets will be had with a person's 2nd choice?

It’s doubtful that many, if any, will get GA with their second choice assuming 20% odds. 

If people here are right about how the odds were calculated, then 20% represents the odds for ALL people who included this show (regardless of where they rank it). That means someone who ranked it second has, at WORST, a 20% chance and likely (almost certainly) higher. How much higher is impossible to say. 

Not really, it really depends how many put it as choice 1. If there is enough demand at choice 1 for all the GA tickets, choice 2 people have a 0% chance at GA

Exactly. Hence my initial post. There could be some, but it’s unlikely that GA gets won with second picks. 

We shall certainly see by this weekend, but I've seen where people have put Best Available for three, four, even five shows....

For example St. Louis Best Available at someone's 4th pick and Denver Best Available at someone's 5th pick affects the OVERALL GA %'s.  We have no real way of knowing how many were available and how many requests came in and in what order. 

I also think there will be lots of people that will get GA with their BA selection when they really would have just preferred to get good seats, and maybe this will make more than normal amounts of GA tickets available on this fan-to-fan exchange that is coming.  This may be something else to constantly check and watch for updated tickets being offered by members.....F5 F5 F5 F5

Lerxst1992

front spacer said:

gotthebottle said:

front spacer said:

cincybearcat said:

Sarava said:

cincybearcat said:

djbrothers said:

Well, the window has closed. I just took a look at the Pre-sale Timeline page on 10C and it looks like all Canadian dates should  be drawn today. Herrrrre we go!

For anybody questioning my sanity, I always wake up this early - not just to check in on all-things PJ.

Did you happen to see the final odds? Not available on the page anymore 

Dimi posted these on facebook:

Toronto: 32/99
Ottawa: 56/99
Quebec City: 795/99
Hamilton: 40/99
Baltimore: 14/65
NYC: 9/57
Nashville: 21/99
St Louis: 22/99
OKC: 63/99
Denver: 21/99
Glendale: 36/99
San Diego: 34/99
LA: 28/99; 26/99
Oak: 30/99; 37/99

Thank you for this. Appreciate it.

So ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC are locks to get seats if you wanted them with ANY priority designation....

At 20% or so, I wonder if GA tickets will be had with a person's 2nd choice?

I would never say its a "lock".....

99% for ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC = reserved tickets if you requested them.....no denials.

If Baltimore total odds are 65% any guesses what the first pick odds are for best available?

1ThoughtKnown

ecdanc said:

front spacer said:

JP218404 said:

josevolution said:

So NY & Baltimore get the most request! What is it about the northeast that people clamor for so much ..

NYC, Boston and Philly. Major markets for the band in the early days and continues to be so demand way higher. 

Dense population, easy mass transit, lack of shows this tour....

The population is quite dense.

😂😂😂

dunewall

clpdot133 said:

Any reason to be concerned if I haven't seen the $1 charge on my CC yet? I did receive the email confirming my request for tickets.

Not all CC's will put a hold for $1

djbrothers

clpdot133 said:

Any reason to be concerned if I haven't seen the $1 charge on my CC yet? I did receive the email confirming my request for tickets.

clpdot133 said:

Any reason to be concerned if I haven't seen the $1 charge on my CC yet? I did receive the email confirming my request for tickets.

I would say probably not. I had $0 charges on my credit card, but they disappeared within a day. It's just a means for Ticketstoday to verify that it's a valid card. Unless you check your statement within an hour or two of the charge, then there's a strong possibility you won't see it.

PJNB

Lerxst1992 said:

front spacer said:

gotthebottle said:

front spacer said:

cincybearcat said:

Sarava said:

cincybearcat said:

djbrothers said:

Well, the window has closed. I just took a look at the Pre-sale Timeline page on 10C and it looks like all Canadian dates should  be drawn today. Herrrrre we go!

For anybody questioning my sanity, I always wake up this early - not just to check in on all-things PJ.

Did you happen to see the final odds? Not available on the page anymore 

Dimi posted these on facebook:

Toronto: 32/99
Ottawa: 56/99
Quebec City: 795/99
Hamilton: 40/99
Baltimore: 14/65
NYC: 9/57
Nashville: 21/99
St Louis: 22/99
OKC: 63/99
Denver: 21/99
Glendale: 36/99
San Diego: 34/99
LA: 28/99; 26/99
Oak: 30/99; 37/99

Thank you for this. Appreciate it.

So ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC are locks to get seats if you wanted them with ANY priority designation....

At 20% or so, I wonder if GA tickets will be had with a person's 2nd choice?

I would never say its a "lock".....

99% for ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC = reserved tickets if you requested them.....no denials.

If Baltimore total odds are 65% any guesses what the first pick odds are for best available?

With NY in the mix and a lot of people putting that as their first I would say true odds have to be above 80% for BAL as a first selection. Just a guess of course but I bet most people get BAL as first.

IgotshitID

clpdot133 said:

Any reason to be concerned if I haven't seen the $1 charge on my CC yet? I did receive the email confirming my request for tickets.

Same thing happened too me 

front spacer

Lerxst1992 said:

front spacer said:

gotthebottle said:

front spacer said:

cincybearcat said:

Sarava said:

cincybearcat said:

djbrothers said:

Well, the window has closed. I just took a look at the Pre-sale Timeline page on 10C and it looks like all Canadian dates should  be drawn today. Herrrrre we go!

For anybody questioning my sanity, I always wake up this early - not just to check in on all-things PJ.

Did you happen to see the final odds? Not available on the page anymore 

Dimi posted these on facebook:

Toronto: 32/99
Ottawa: 56/99
Quebec City: 795/99
Hamilton: 40/99
Baltimore: 14/65
NYC: 9/57
Nashville: 21/99
St Louis: 22/99
OKC: 63/99
Denver: 21/99
Glendale: 36/99
San Diego: 34/99
LA: 28/99; 26/99
Oak: 30/99; 37/99

Thank you for this. Appreciate it.

So ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC are locks to get seats if you wanted them with ANY priority designation....

At 20% or so, I wonder if GA tickets will be had with a person's 2nd choice?

I would never say its a "lock".....

99% for ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC = reserved tickets if you requested them.....no denials.

If Baltimore total odds are 65% any guesses what the first pick odds are for best available?

With 1st priority.....pretty decent.

jimjam1982

For any of the people concerned about the lack of a $1 auth... I have worked in financial crimes for a long time and merchants can run these checks to make sure the card is open active and not compromised. The auth will give them a response and let them know your card is good and it never shows up on your end. Ticketmaster is probably synced up to this way of testing cards compared to true $1 holds that go on your account. I don't think you have anything to worry about.

NewfieintheUSA

Lerxst1992 said:

front spacer said:

gotthebottle said:

front spacer said:

cincybearcat said:

Sarava said:

cincybearcat said:

djbrothers said:

Well, the window has closed. I just took a look at the Pre-sale Timeline page on 10C and it looks like all Canadian dates should  be drawn today. Herrrrre we go!

For anybody questioning my sanity, I always wake up this early - not just to check in on all-things PJ.

Did you happen to see the final odds? Not available on the page anymore 

Dimi posted these on facebook:

Toronto: 32/99
Ottawa: 56/99
Quebec City: 795/99
Hamilton: 40/99
Baltimore: 14/65
NYC: 9/57
Nashville: 21/99
St Louis: 22/99
OKC: 63/99
Denver: 21/99
Glendale: 36/99
San Diego: 34/99
LA: 28/99; 26/99
Oak: 30/99; 37/99

Thank you for this. Appreciate it.

So ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC are locks to get seats if you wanted them with ANY priority designation....

At 20% or so, I wonder if GA tickets will be had with a person's 2nd choice?

I would never say its a "lock".....

99% for ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC = reserved tickets if you requested them.....no denials.

If Baltimore total odds are 65% any guesses what the first pick odds are for best available?

My guess is alot of people are doing MSG and Baltimore, and majority put MSG first. I would assume about 60-70% of people put Baltimore first choice. Assuming 70% first choice, the odds would be around 92% for first choice people

dunewall

IgotshitID said:

clpdot133 said:

Any reason to be concerned if I haven't seen the $1 charge on my CC yet? I did receive the email confirming my request for tickets.

Same thing happened too me 

As long as you received the email...you're good.  I have alway's used American Express and they never show a $1 hold

clpdot133

jimjam1982 said:

For any of the people concerned about the lack of a $1 auth... I have worked in financial crimes for a long time and merchants can run these checks to make sure the card is open active and not compromised. The auth will give them a response and let them know your card is good and it never shows up on your end. Ticketmaster is probably synced up to this way of testing cards compared to true $1 holds that go on your account. I don't think you have anything to worry about.

Thanks. It made me so paranoid that I even went back in and submitted my request again last night to ensure that I had the numbers entered correctly ha.

Lerxst1992

Question for the veterans of 10c:

Doesnt having a separate draw for each show significantly complicate the process and have a 
 multiple amount of more draws:

[Number of shows x number of rounds]

Whereas if they did one draw for everyone's first pick they would need only one draw per round for all shows?  Isnt that much simpler?

ajflicker

clpdot133 said:

Any reason to be concerned if I haven't seen the $1 charge on my CC yet? I did receive the email confirming my request for tickets.

I didn't get it either. No worry

mcgruff10

Lerxst1992 said:

Question for the veterans of 10c:

Doesnt having a separate draw for each show significantly complicate the process and have a 
 multiple amount of more draws:

[Number of shows x number of rounds]

Whereas if they did one draw for everyone's first pick they would need only one draw per round for all shows?  Isnt that much simpler?

no mr. red hook.  

Lerxst1992

NewfieintheUSA said:

Lerxst1992 said:

front spacer said:

gotthebottle said:

front spacer said:

cincybearcat said:

Sarava said:

cincybearcat said:

djbrothers said:

Well, the window has closed. I just took a look at the Pre-sale Timeline page on 10C and it looks like all Canadian dates should  be drawn today. Herrrrre we go!

For anybody questioning my sanity, I always wake up this early - not just to check in on all-things PJ.

Did you happen to see the final odds? Not available on the page anymore 

Dimi posted these on facebook:

Toronto: 32/99
Ottawa: 56/99
Quebec City: 795/99
Hamilton: 40/99
Baltimore: 14/65
NYC: 9/57
Nashville: 21/99
St Louis: 22/99
OKC: 63/99
Denver: 21/99
Glendale: 36/99
San Diego: 34/99
LA: 28/99; 26/99
Oak: 30/99; 37/99

Thank you for this. Appreciate it.

So ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC are locks to get seats if you wanted them with ANY priority designation....

At 20% or so, I wonder if GA tickets will be had with a person's 2nd choice?

I would never say its a "lock".....

99% for ALL shows except Baltimore and NYC = reserved tickets if you requested them.....no denials.

If Baltimore total odds are 65% any guesses what the first pick odds are for best available?

My guess is alot of people are doing MSG and Baltimore, and majority put MSG first. I would assume about 60-70% of people put Baltimore first choice. Assuming 70% first choice, the odds would be around 92% for first choice people

Thanks. My guess is very similar. I estimated a 30% better chance for having Baltimore as  first pick so about 85%. Not too bad considering very few Atlantic shows.



Have to give a ton of credit to the club. I did alot of whining about obstructed Fenway seats with no warning. This time they showed us the club sections per arena in advance and allowed us to pick best available.

Even with a higher # I have a chance to get a fairly decent seat in a smallish venue. Thanks 10c!

gotthebottle

Lerxst1992 said:

Question for the veterans of 10c:

Doesnt having a separate draw for each show significantly complicate the process and have a 
 multiple amount of more draws:

[Number of shows x number of rounds]

Whereas if they did one draw for everyone's first pick they would need only one draw per round for all shows?  Isnt that much simpler?

they've done this lottery draw before and it works, that's why they aren't changing it up...just sit back and relax, nothing you can do now...