Did you vote, yet?

OnWis97

CM189191 said:

Minnesota 2018 voter turnout tops the nation

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/11/27/minnesota-2018-voter-turnout-tops-the-nation

You know the GOP looks at this and says "that's why we keep losing Minnesota; we gotta get that number down!"

CM189191

OnWis97 said:

CM189191 said:

Minnesota 2018 voter turnout tops the nation

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/11/27/minnesota-2018-voter-turnout-tops-the-nation

You know the GOP looks at this and says "that's why we keep losing Minnesota; we gotta get that number down!"

yup

Doug Wardlow once told a Republicans-only audience his goal in attaining that office:

"If we win the attorney general’s office, which I can do, we can change the political complexion of the state long-term because the attorney general should be going after election fraud. We should be looking into illegal voting. It should be working with county attorneys to prosecute illegal voting.”

http://citypages.com/news/this-is-what-theyre-afraid-of/501425431

Wardlow was the unsuccessful Republican candidate in the 2018 Minnesota Attorney General election

PJ_Soul

HughFreakingDillon said:

cincybearcat said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

cincybearcat said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Please pass the Kleenex.

Circle jerking again 

Dab your eyes.

You are a joke anymore 

this must have gotten lost in translation somewhere. 

Yeah, was that just a typo-type mistake, or another "could care less" or "on accident" debacle?

dignin

Evidence of fraud mounts in uncertified North Carolina race won by Republican

A narrow victory by Republican Mark Harris may be thrown out amid evidence of fraudulent absentee voting

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/30/evidence-of-fraud-mounts-in-uncertified-north-carolina-race-won-by-republican/

njnancy

PJ_Soul said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

cincybearcat said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

cincybearcat said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

Please pass the Kleenex.

Circle jerking again 

Dab your eyes.

You are a joke anymore 

this must have gotten lost in translation somewhere. 

Yeah, was that just a typo-type mistake, or another "could care less" or "on accident" debacle?

I have tried to figure out what the intent was but I've got nothing. 

njnancy

dignin said:

Evidence of fraud mounts in uncertified North Carolina race won by Republican

A narrow victory by Republican Mark Harris may be thrown out amid evidence of fraudulent absentee voting

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/30/evidence-of-fraud-mounts-in-uncertified-north-carolina-race-won-by-republican/

Good for North Carolina. Someone going after possible REAL voter fraud. 

my2hands

That's definitely some shady shit

The Juggler

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-republican-party-has-changed-dramatically-since-george-h-w-bush-ran-it/

CM189191

njnancy said:

dignin said:

Evidence of fraud mounts in uncertified North Carolina race won by Republican

A narrow victory by Republican Mark Harris may be thrown out amid evidence of fraudulent absentee voting

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/30/evidence-of-fraud-mounts-in-uncertified-north-carolina-race-won-by-republican/

Good for North Carolina. Someone going after possible REAL voter fraud. 

This is not voter fraud. It's election fraud. Much more serious. 

dignin

CM189191 said:

njnancy said:

dignin said:

Evidence of fraud mounts in uncertified North Carolina race won by Republican

A narrow victory by Republican Mark Harris may be thrown out amid evidence of fraudulent absentee voting

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/30/evidence-of-fraud-mounts-in-uncertified-north-carolina-race-won-by-republican/

Good for North Carolina. Someone going after possible REAL voter fraud. 

This is not voter fraud. It's election fraud. Much more serious. 

Yup. Not people, the republican party.

The Juggler

Suburban areas in swing states swung the election to him in '16:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-really-popular-in-rural-areas-other-places-not-so-much/

Trump Is Really Popular In Rural Areas. Other Places, Not So Much.

By Nathaniel Rakich and Dhrumil Mehta

Filed under Pollapalooza

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll(s) of the week

The 2018 midterm election confirmed America’s urban-rural divide; Democrats excelled in cities, Republicans dominated in the country and the suburbs were the tiebreaker that handed Democrats the House. Will the 2020 election play out the same way? This week, we got two polls of President Trump’s approval rating that suggest it might.

First, a Selzer & Co. (one of our favorite pollsters) national poll conducted Nov. 24-27 for Grinnell College found that Trump had a 43 percent approval rating and a 45 percent disapproval rating among all adults. However, his support isn’t distributed equally across different types of communities. He’s enormously popular among residents of rural areas, with a 61 percent approval rating and a 26 percent disapproval rating. In small towns, that breakdown is 44 percent approve vs. 42 percent disapprove. But in suburban areas, only 41 percent of residents approve of the job that Trump is doing as president, while 50 percent disapprove. Trump’s approval rating is lowest among urbanites — 31 percent approve of him while 59 percent disapprove.

We saw similar geographic trends in an Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll that was conducted from Nov. 26 to Dec. 2. Trump again got the highest marks from residents of rural areas — a 62 percent approval rating and a 35 percent disapproval rating. And yet again, his standing took a nosedive among suburbanites and urbanites. In suburban areas, Trump’s approval rating was 32 percent, and his disapproval rating was 60 percent. In urban areas, his approval rating was 27 percent, and his disapproval rating was 67 percent. (The IBD/TIPP poll didn’t include “small town” as an option for respondents.) Overall, Trump’s approval/disapproval spread was much lower in the IBD/TIPP poll (39 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove) than it was in the Selzer poll, which explains why the IBD/TIPP poll is worse for Trump in all three geographic categories as well.

Here are the results of the polls side by side:

Trump is more popular in rural areas

Presidential net approval rating among adults by density type

CATEGORY	SELZER POLL	IBD/TIPP POLL
Urban	-28	-40
Suburban	-9	-28
Small town*	+2	—
Rural	+35	+27
Overall	-2	-16

* The Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll did not include a breakdown for “small town.”

SOURCES: SELZER & CO., GRINNELL COLLEGE, INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY

 

This is perhaps stating the obvious, but Trump would do well to approve his standing among suburban and urban voters before 2020. Less than 20 percent of the U.S. population lives in rural areas. Granted, not all rural voters will cast their ballot for the president, nor will all urban and suburban voters back whoever is the Democratic nominee. But elections are winner-take-all contests waged within discrete geographic areas — states or districts. According to the Congressional Density Index from CityLab, a news website covering urban issues, just 70 congressional districts are “pure rural,” and an additional 114 are a “rural-suburban mix.” CityLab is still in the process of making similar assessments for states, but David Montgomery, a journalist for CityLab, told FiveThirtyEight that 11 states could be classified as mostly rural, while an additional 17 could be classified as a mix of rural areas and suburbs. The former are worth a combined 53 electoral votes, while the latter are worth a combined 138; 270 are needed to win a presidential election.

None of this means that Trump lacks a path to electoral victory. It’s still early in the 2020 campaign; approval ratings may change, and a person’s feelings about the president aren’t the only determinant of his or her vote. But those numbers aren’t great for Republicans even if institutions like the Electoral College give disproportionate influence to rural areas. Without urban and suburban areas, they’ll find it difficult to cobble together a sustainable majority.

Halifax2TheMax

The Juggler said:

Suburban areas in swing states swung the election to him in '16:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-really-popular-in-rural-areas-other-places-not-so-much/

Trump Is Really Popular In Rural Areas. Other Places, Not So Much.

By Nathaniel Rakich and Dhrumil Mehta

Filed under Pollapalooza

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll(s) of the week

The 2018 midterm election confirmed America’s urban-rural divide; Democrats excelled in cities, Republicans dominated in the country and the suburbs were the tiebreaker that handed Democrats the House. Will the 2020 election play out the same way? This week, we got two polls of President Trump’s approval rating that suggest it might.

First, a Selzer & Co. (one of our favorite pollsters) national poll conducted Nov. 24-27 for Grinnell College found that Trump had a 43 percent approval rating and a 45 percent disapproval rating among all adults. However, his support isn’t distributed equally across different types of communities. He’s enormously popular among residents of rural areas, with a 61 percent approval rating and a 26 percent disapproval rating. In small towns, that breakdown is 44 percent approve vs. 42 percent disapprove. But in suburban areas, only 41 percent of residents approve of the job that Trump is doing as president, while 50 percent disapprove. Trump’s approval rating is lowest among urbanites — 31 percent approve of him while 59 percent disapprove.

We saw similar geographic trends in an Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll that was conducted from Nov. 26 to Dec. 2. Trump again got the highest marks from residents of rural areas — a 62 percent approval rating and a 35 percent disapproval rating. And yet again, his standing took a nosedive among suburbanites and urbanites. In suburban areas, Trump’s approval rating was 32 percent, and his disapproval rating was 60 percent. In urban areas, his approval rating was 27 percent, and his disapproval rating was 67 percent. (The IBD/TIPP poll didn’t include “small town” as an option for respondents.) Overall, Trump’s approval/disapproval spread was much lower in the IBD/TIPP poll (39 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove) than it was in the Selzer poll, which explains why the IBD/TIPP poll is worse for Trump in all three geographic categories as well.

Here are the results of the polls side by side:

Trump is more popular in rural areas

Presidential net approval rating among adults by density type

CATEGORY	SELZER POLL	IBD/TIPP POLL
Urban	-28	-40
Suburban	-9	-28
Small town*	+2	—
Rural	+35	+27
Overall	-2	-16

* The Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll did not include a breakdown for “small town.”

SOURCES: SELZER & CO., GRINNELL COLLEGE, INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY

 

This is perhaps stating the obvious, but Trump would do well to approve his standing among suburban and urban voters before 2020. Less than 20 percent of the U.S. population lives in rural areas. Granted, not all rural voters will cast their ballot for the president, nor will all urban and suburban voters back whoever is the Democratic nominee. But elections are winner-take-all contests waged within discrete geographic areas — states or districts. According to the Congressional Density Index from CityLab, a news website covering urban issues, just 70 congressional districts are “pure rural,” and an additional 114 are a “rural-suburban mix.” CityLab is still in the process of making similar assessments for states, but David Montgomery, a journalist for CityLab, told FiveThirtyEight that 11 states could be classified as mostly rural, while an additional 17 could be classified as a mix of rural areas and suburbs. The former are worth a combined 53 electoral votes, while the latter are worth a combined 138; 270 are needed to win a presidential election.

None of this means that Trump lacks a path to electoral victory. It’s still early in the 2020 campaign; approval ratings may change, and a person’s feelings about the president aren’t the only determinant of his or her vote. But those numbers aren’t great for Republicans even if institutions like the Electoral College give disproportionate influence to rural areas. Without urban and suburban areas, they’ll find it difficult to cobble together a sustainable majority.

Untenable.

The Juggler

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-republicans-given-up-on-winning-black-voters/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Have Republicans Given Up On Winning Black Voters?

josevolution

The Juggler said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-republicans-given-up-on-winning-black-voters/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Have Republicans Given Up On Winning Black Voters?

They should they’ve never ever offered anything that would help blacks & minority’s do yeah add the Hispanic voters too ! 

The Juggler

^
Long term prospects for a party that is primarily focused on winning votes from uneducated white males is not the best. They will rue the day Trump descended from those escalators. No long term vision in the republican party. Only caring about short term gains.

Bentleyspop

The Juggler said:

^
Long term prospects for a party that is primarily focused on winning votes from uneducated white males is not the best. They will rue the day Trump descended from those escalators. No long term vision in the republican party. Only caring about short term gains.

Unfortunately it's not just short term gains.
During Barack Obama's presidency the Republicans refused to fill empty judicial positions. 
The current government has been quietly loading the federal bench with hundreds of conservative judges. 
These judges will be in place for decades. 

The Juggler

Bentleyspop said:

The Juggler said:

^
Long term prospects for a party that is primarily focused on winning votes from uneducated white males is not the best. They will rue the day Trump descended from those escalators. No long term vision in the republican party. Only caring about short term gains.

Unfortunately it's not just short term gains.
During Barack Obama's presidency the Republicans refused to cut to fill empty judicial positions. 
The current government has been quietly loading the federal bench with hundreds of conservative judges. 
These judges will be in place for decades. 

Yeah, that's true.

The Juggler

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/11/politics/the-foundation-of-trumps-coalition-is-cracking/index.html

The Juggler

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americas-electoral-map-is-changing/

The Juggler

Fits in with previous discussions here:
 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-shutdown-is-hurting-trumps-approval-rating-but-will-it-hurt-him-in-2020/

The shutdown has prompted Trump to double down on his all-base, all-the-time strategy

But if Trump wants to get re-elected, his biggest problem isn’t what Republicans think about him; it’s what the rest of the country does.

The lesson of the midterms, in my view, was fairly clear: Trump’s base isn’t enough. The 2018 midterms weren’t unique in the scale of Republican losses: losing 40 or 41 House seats is bad, but the president’s party usually does poorly at the midterms. Rather, it’s that these losses came on exceptionally high turnout of about 119 million voters, which is considerably closer to 2016’s presidential year turnout (139 million) than to the previous midterm in 2014 (83 million). Republicans did turn out in huge numbers for the midterms, but the Democratic base — which is larger than the Republican one — turned out also, and independent voters strongly backed Democratic candidates for the House.

Plenty of presidents, including Obama, Clinton and Reagan, recovered from poor midterms to get re-elected. But those presidents typically sought to pivot or “triangulate” toward the center; we don’t know if the political rebound occurs if the pivot doesn’t. Instead, Trump has moved in the opposite direction. Despite some initial attempts at reaching out to the center, such as in passing a criminal justice bill in December and issuing trial balloons about an infrastructure package, Trump’s strategy of shutting down the government to insist on a border wall was aimed at placating his critics on the right, such as Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter, and members of the House Freedom Caucus.

Maybe Trump took some of the wrong lessons from 2016. Trump may mythologize 2016 as an election in which he was brought into the White House on the strength of his base, but that isn’t necessarily why he won. And even if it was, trying to duplicate the strategy might not work again:

• Trump probably won’t face off against an opponent as unpopular as Hillary Clinton, by some measures the most unpopular candidate in general election history except for Trump himself.
• He won’t necessarily be the preferred candidate for voters who are on the fence between Trump and his opponent. (In 2016, voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump went for Trump by 17 points.)
• If he’s pursuing policies such as shutting down the government to demand a border wall, swing voters may no longer see Trump as a moderate, as (somewhat contrary to the conventional wisdom) they did in 2016.
• Trump might or might not benefit from the same Electoral College advantage that he had in 2016.
• And he probably won’t have an FBI investigation against his opponentreopened 10 days before the election.

Given that, perhaps 2018 is a better model for 2020 than 2016. In the midterms, voting closely tracked Trump’s approval ratings, and he paid the price for his unpopularity. According to the exit poll, midterm voters disapproved of Trump’s performance by a net of 9 percentage points. Not coincidentally, Republicans also lost the popular vote for the House by 9 percentage points.

There’s plenty of time for Trump’s numbers to improve, but for now, they’re getting worse. So while the shutdown’s consequences may not last into 2020, it has been another step in the wrong direction at a moment when presidents have usually pivoted to the center.