It should be at 99 (really 100) until the demand exceeds supply. Then you'll see a steady drop like you are seeing with Detroit.
For example, if there are 500 pairs for GA it will be at a 99% chance whether there are 5 entries or 499 entries since everyone will get a ticket. Once it eclipses that number, that's when you'll start to see a drop.
It should be at 99 (really 100) until the demand exceeds supply. Then you'll see a steady drop like you are seeing with Detroit.
For example, if there are 500 pairs for GA it will be at a 99% chance whether there are 5 entries or 499 entries since everyone will get a ticket. Once it eclipses that number, that's when you'll start to see a drop.
I'm assuming that they won't ever have it say 100% even if there are only a couple entries and it really is 100% just to cover themselves..
2003: 7/14 NJ ... 2006: 6/1 NJ, 6/3 NJ ... 2007: 8/5 IL ... 2008: 6/24 NY, 6/25 NY, 8/7 EV NJ ... 2009: 10/27 PA, 10/28 PA, 10/30 PA, 10/31 PA 2010: 5/20 NY, 5/21 NY ... 2011: 6/21 EV NY, 9/3 WI, 9/4 WI ... 2012: 9/2 PA, 9/22 GA ... 2013: 10/18 NY, 10/19 NY, 10/21 PA, 10/22 PA, 10/27 MD 2015: 9/23 NY, 9/26 NY ... 2016: 4/28 PA, 4/29 PA, 5/1 NY, 5/2 NY, 6/11 TN, 8/7 MA, 11/4 TOTD PA, 11/5 TOTD PA ... 2018: 8/10 WA ---- http://imgur.com/a/nk0s7
Don't know why people are surprised they're all at 99%. How many people do you really think are going to make their selection within a few hours of an announcement (and one that they might not even know about yet)? There's no rush.
Plus, there wouldn't be a huge amount of 10C members that live in many of these cities, nor would there be many locking in a travel plan right away. Detroit is the biggest city (?), and is closest to the NE population, obvious why that's the only one with any movement.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Reserved Seat chances stay at 99% for the whole time for some cities like Tulsa, Lincoln, St Paul.
I hope its right, and I doubt too many are jumping in this quickly, but I just can't see how Detroit is down to 48% for GA and everything else is still at 99%. I hope this is right though - the 48% this quickly is not good to see... going to be tough for some of these shows.
How can Detroit be right. 49% basically means twice as many people have requested Detroit GA than the number of GA available. That's gotta be 2000 or more? In 4 hours?
Makes perfect sense to me. Detroit is the show to be at - Canadians are all over it. It's the only show that has already exceeded demand for 10C GA tix, which was predictable, so it's the only one that has odds going down so far. People have to put more thought into the other shows, since they are less accessible for more people.
Post edited by PJ_Soul on
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
Makes perfect sense to me. Detroit is the show to be at - Canadians are all over it. It's the only show that has already exceeded demand for 10C GA tix, which was predictable, so it's the only one that has odds going down so far. People have to put more thought into the other shows, since they are less accessible for more people.
...or Detroit has a severe 10C scalping problem....
WI 6/27/98 WI 10/8/00 MO 10/11/00 IL 4/23/03 MN 6/26/06 MN 6/27/06 WI 6/30/06 IL 8/5/07 IL 8/21/08 (EV) IL 8/22/08 (EV) IL 8/23/09 IL 8/24/09 IN 5/7/10 IL 6/28/11 (EV) IL 6/29/11 (EV) WI 9/3/11 WI 9/4/11 IL 7/19/13 NE 10/09/14 IL 10/17/14 MN 10/19/14 FL 4/11/16 IL 8/20/16 IL 8/22/16 IL 08/18/18 IL 08/20/18 IT 07/05/2020AT 07/07/2020
Makes perfect sense to me. Detroit is the show to be at - Canadians are all over it. It's the only show that has already exceeded demand for 10C GA tix, which was predictable, so it's the only one that has odds going down so far. People have to put more thought into the other shows, since they are less accessible for more people.
...or Detroit has a severe 10C scalping problem....
Don't think so... Toronto is a huge market. Everyone there will be entering for Detroit.
With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
Question - If you put "reserved" for show #1 and "reserved" for show #2 will it give you the same odds for show #2 as if you would have put "reserved" and "GA" for show #1 and "reserved" for show "#2". In other words, does adding a second option for show #1 make show #2 your third choice or is it still considered your second choice since it is your second show selected?
'95 - San Diego
'98 - Phoenix, San Diego, Las Vegas, Inglewood 1-2
'00 - San Bernardino
'03 - Denver, Council Bluffs
'06 - Denver 1-2, Los Angeles 1-2
'09 - Universal City, San Diego
'11 - PJ20
Correct me if I'm wrong, but by the end of the lottery if all of the shows are below 99%, nobody will get a 2nd choice pick, right? If a show drops below 99 that means that there are more first choice entries than available seats. The FAQ says the following:
'For each show we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain the system we'll randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority, and so on until every ticket for a given show has been sold. Please keep in mind that not everyone can have their #1 priority.'
If all the fan club tickets are gone after the first choice drawing there won't be a second, right?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but by the end of the lottery if all of the shows are below 99%, nobody will get a 2nd choice pick, right? If a show drops below 99 that means that there are more first choice entries than available seats. The FAQ says the following:
'For each show we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain the system we'll randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority, and so on until every ticket for a given show has been sold. Please keep in mind that not everyone can have their #1 priority.'
If all the fan club tickets are gone after the first choice drawing there won't be a second, right?
If all tickets are gone after the first choice then no there won't be a second. However, nowhere does it say that the odds are for getting it as a 1st choice. Only that it's number of entrants versus number of tickets.
I believe if you put GA as your first choice and Reserved as your second.. if you don't get GA then everyone else who put reserved as their first choice will get it before you.
'95 - San Diego
'98 - Phoenix, San Diego, Las Vegas, Inglewood 1-2
'00 - San Bernardino
'03 - Denver, Council Bluffs
'06 - Denver 1-2, Los Angeles 1-2
'09 - Universal City, San Diego
'11 - PJ20
I believe if you put GA as your first choice and Reserved as your second.. if you don't get GA then everyone else who put reserved as their first choice will get it before you.
Correct.
.
3/22/94 Cleveland, OH
9/21/96 Toronto, ON
8/26/98 Cleveland, OH
5/09/10 Cleveland, OH
9/03/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
9/04/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
7/19/13 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
10/11/13 Pittsburgh, PA
10/12/13 Buffalo, NY
12/06/13 Seattle, WA
10/16/14 Detroit, MI
10/17/14 Moline, IL
8/20/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
8/22/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
See how much easier (& better IMO) it would be if there was only 1 choice per city with a box to check if you were interested in GA.
Then, they could draw all of the winners for a city and then select x amount of those people to fill the GA.
A lot less confusing & less stressful. Of course, some people can & will get multiple show. However, it is very easy for a lot of people who select any GA to get absolutely nothing by the time they go down the choices.
Just a thought.
3/22/94 Cleveland, OH
9/21/96 Toronto, ON
8/26/98 Cleveland, OH
5/09/10 Cleveland, OH
9/03/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
9/04/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
7/19/13 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
10/11/13 Pittsburgh, PA
10/12/13 Buffalo, NY
12/06/13 Seattle, WA
10/16/14 Detroit, MI
10/17/14 Moline, IL
8/20/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
8/22/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
See how much easier (& better IMO) it would be if there was only 1 choice per city with a box to check if you were interested in GA.
Then, they could draw all of the winners for a city and then select x amount of those people to fill the GA.
A lot less confusing & less stressful. Of course, some people can & will get multiple show. However, it is very easy for a lot of people who select any GA to get absolutely nothing by the time they go down the choices.
Good luck to everyone's dogs and cats who have accounts!
Wouldn't the dog or cat need a photo ID and credit card to pick up the tickets?
I know some husbands & wives & even kids have memberships. All of which I think is ok, IMO.
3/22/94 Cleveland, OH
9/21/96 Toronto, ON
8/26/98 Cleveland, OH
5/09/10 Cleveland, OH
9/03/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
9/04/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
7/19/13 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
10/11/13 Pittsburgh, PA
10/12/13 Buffalo, NY
12/06/13 Seattle, WA
10/16/14 Detroit, MI
10/17/14 Moline, IL
8/20/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
8/22/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
Good luck to everyone's dogs and cats who have accounts!
Wouldn't the dog or cat need a photo ID and credit card to pick up the tickets?
I know some husbands & wives & even kids have memberships. All of which I think is ok, IMO.
so if someone's 8 month old wins the lottery for a show, does that mean they have to attend the show? I mean, the person whose name is drawn has to be the one picking up tickets...
The joy of life comes from our encounters with new experiences, and hence there is no greater joy than to have an endlessly changing horizon, for each day to have a new and different sun.
so if someone's 8 month old wins the lottery for a show, does that mean they have to attend the show? I mean, the person whose name is drawn has to be the one picking up tickets...
Are you even allowed to enter a PJ show WITHOUT a kid these days?
Comments
For example, if there are 500 pairs for GA it will be at a 99% chance whether there are 5 entries or 499 entries since everyone will get a ticket. Once it eclipses that number, that's when you'll start to see a drop.
2010: 5/20 NY, 5/21 NY ... 2011: 6/21 EV NY, 9/3 WI, 9/4 WI ... 2012: 9/2 PA, 9/22 GA ... 2013: 10/18 NY, 10/19 NY, 10/21 PA, 10/22 PA, 10/27 MD
2015: 9/23 NY, 9/26 NY ... 2016: 4/28 PA, 4/29 PA, 5/1 NY, 5/2 NY, 6/11 TN, 8/7 MA, 11/4 TOTD PA, 11/5 TOTD PA ... 2018: 8/10 WA ---- http://imgur.com/a/nk0s7
Plus, there wouldn't be a huge amount of 10C members that live in many of these cities, nor would there be many locking in a travel plan right away. Detroit is the biggest city (?), and is closest to the NE population, obvious why that's the only one with any movement.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Reserved Seat chances stay at 99% for the whole time for some cities like Tulsa, Lincoln, St Paul.
If there's only 10 tix available but only 3 apply. Bingo.
But if 10,000 available and 20,000 apply you've 50% chance.
I love numbers/odds. This system I'd hate as I wouldn't stop looking at the odds. Waiting on the lottery is bad enough.
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Columbus-2003
Cincinnati-2006
Columbus-2010
Wrigley-2013
Cincinnati-2014
Lexington-2016
Wrigley 1 & 2-2018
'For each show we will randomly draw members who have made that show their #1 priority. If any tickets remain the system we'll randomly draw names of members who have chosen that show as their #2 priority, and so on until every ticket for a given show has been sold. Please keep in mind that not everyone can have their #1 priority.'
If all the fan club tickets are gone after the first choice drawing there won't be a second, right?
Those that can be trusted can change their mind.
Those that can be trusted can change their mind.
Correct.
.
9/21/96 Toronto, ON
8/26/98 Cleveland, OH
5/09/10 Cleveland, OH
9/03/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
9/04/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
7/19/13 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
10/11/13 Pittsburgh, PA
10/12/13 Buffalo, NY
12/06/13 Seattle, WA
10/16/14 Detroit, MI
10/17/14 Moline, IL
8/20/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
8/22/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
Then, they could draw all of the winners for a city and then select x amount of those people to fill the GA.
A lot less confusing & less stressful. Of course, some people can & will get multiple show. However, it is very easy for a lot of people who select any GA to get absolutely nothing by the time they go down the choices.
Just a thought.
9/21/96 Toronto, ON
8/26/98 Cleveland, OH
5/09/10 Cleveland, OH
9/03/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
9/04/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
7/19/13 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
10/11/13 Pittsburgh, PA
10/12/13 Buffalo, NY
12/06/13 Seattle, WA
10/16/14 Detroit, MI
10/17/14 Moline, IL
8/20/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
8/22/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
There needs to be a limit on how many you can win that would make it easier to get a show or two.
2000: Pitt
2003: Pitt, State College, Columbus,DC, Hershey
2004: Reading, Toledo, DC
2005: Pitt
2006: Cleve, Camden 1+2, DC, Pitt, Cinci
2008: Camden 1+2, DC
2009: Philly 3
2010: Columbus
2012: Philly
2013: Pitt, NYC 1+2
I know some husbands & wives & even kids have memberships. All of which I think is ok, IMO.
9/21/96 Toronto, ON
8/26/98 Cleveland, OH
5/09/10 Cleveland, OH
9/03/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
9/04/11 East Troy, WI PJ20
7/19/13 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
10/11/13 Pittsburgh, PA
10/12/13 Buffalo, NY
12/06/13 Seattle, WA
10/16/14 Detroit, MI
10/17/14 Moline, IL
8/20/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
8/22/16 Chicago, IL Wrigley Field
- Christopher McCandless
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