SURVEY MONKEY RESULTS - LEG 1
All,
Here are the survey results from Leg 1. 476 people responded to Leg 1 which is statistically significant, so these %'s should hold basically true. Couple of interesting points:
1. Brooklyn was popular (duh)
2. C'Ville was the least popular which also stands to reason. There is no major market in the area. DC is closer to Baltimore. This was great for those of us in Richmond, VA Beach etc.
3. Philly was far less chosen than expected. Perhaps because people were scared away from 4 show sellout in 09. It was 7 for me and I won reserved. Shocked.
4. 76% of us won our first selection. Not that bad...
Raw data including Leg 2 here: http://www.surveymonkey.com/sr.aspx?sm= ... JxzfvIM_3d
Sorry the images are hard to see, but 10C limits don't work great with excel. First graph shows % who won first choice, moving left to right. Second graph stacks choices 1-3 to get a look at where most requests were. In case you can't see it, the shows are in date order from left to right with GA first.
Here are the survey results from Leg 1. 476 people responded to Leg 1 which is statistically significant, so these %'s should hold basically true. Couple of interesting points:
1. Brooklyn was popular (duh)
2. C'Ville was the least popular which also stands to reason. There is no major market in the area. DC is closer to Baltimore. This was great for those of us in Richmond, VA Beach etc.
3. Philly was far less chosen than expected. Perhaps because people were scared away from 4 show sellout in 09. It was 7 for me and I won reserved. Shocked.
4. 76% of us won our first selection. Not that bad...
Raw data including Leg 2 here: http://www.surveymonkey.com/sr.aspx?sm= ... JxzfvIM_3d
Sorry the images are hard to see, but 10C limits don't work great with excel. First graph shows % who won first choice, moving left to right. Second graph stacks choices 1-3 to get a look at where most requests were. In case you can't see it, the shows are in date order from left to right with GA first.
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Great information! And really helps to explain what happened with Philly.
Still digesting your research.
*NYC 9/28/96 *NYC 9/29/96 *NJ 9/8/98 (front row "may i play drums with you")
*MSG 9/10/98 (backstage) *MSG 9/11/98 (backstage)
*Jones Beach 8/23/00 *Jones Beach 8/24/00 *Jones Beach 8/25/00
*Mansfield 8/29/00 *Mansfield 8/30/00 *Nassau 4/30/03 *Nissan VA 7/1/03
*Borgata 10/1/05 *Camden 5/27/06 *Camden 5/28/06 *DC 5/30/06
*VA Beach 6/17/08 *DC 6/22/08 *MSG 6/24/08 (backstage) *MSG 6/25/08
*EV DC 8/17/08 *EV Baltimore 6/15/09 *Philly 10/31/09
*Bristow VA 5/13/10 *MSG 5/20/10 *MSG 5/21/10
My guess is those are all Philly shows and people likely went something like:
1. Brooklyn 1 GA
2. Brooklyn 1 RES
3. Hartford GA
4. Hartford RES
5. PItt GA
6. Pitt RES
7. Buffalo GA
8. Buffalo RES
9 [Insert any Philly show]
FWIW Philly is the only show Ive seen people post they got with the 9th priority and Ive seen it a couple times.
Could be.. could also be the low overall demand for Philly (in a big arena) gave some people a chance. Only 3% had Philly 2 Reserve as their first choice.
Or, more likely, is that we only had 24 responses for #9, and 20% got that show. Could just be a data anomaly from the low sample rate at that particular segment.
Yes, I'm in Richmond. I was thrilled to see JPJ on the docket and I got GA. Also got #7 Philly and #10 CLT Reserve.
Once I post the Leg 2, I think there is one key lesson out of this...
2014 Cincy, Detroit, Moline, & Milwaukee
2015 Central Park
2016 Lexington, Ottawa, Toronto 1 & 2, Boston 1 & 2, Chicago 1 & 2
2017 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony
2018 Seattle 1 & 2, Missoula, Chicago 1
Now I understand how I got my 1st choice (Bklyn 1 GA) - it was because everyone went for the saturday show! WOOHOO me! I'm hoping this means it'll be easier to get tickets for the Sat show through TM
I think the 9th choice = philly win theory makes a lot of sense. Both philly shows are on weeknights, and not a lot of us can take off Mondays and Tuesdays. At least in my experience it's easier to get off Fridays from work than Mondays.
I have to admit, 76% win for 1st choice isn't that bad at all. I'd be curious to see what the stats are for people who lost their 1st choice but won their 2nd.
Thanks again for doing this!
LIVEFOOTSTEPS.ORG/USER/?USR=435
Never mind - saw it! thanks very much for your effort. My husband and I are also stat geeks, so we really appreciate the numbers. Only wish more people had participated in Leg2.
Have a great trip at/to the shows
Something is either wrong with the lottery system or your data if people choosing GA for Brooklyn 2 as their 2nd choice got tickets because I lost it as my first choice and was locked out of all other picks.
That's right. I think much of the backlash has been coming from certain shows: NYC, Dallas, OKC and Seattle. Those appear to have been heavy volume. Those that went 'All or None' on one of these shows were most likely to be disappointed.
Did you win ANY Brooklyn ticket - Brooklyn 1 GA or Reserved?
...are those who've helped us.
Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
No my picks were as follows since I am flying up from Orlando and would prefer to attend 10/19 (which i will now through ticketmaster) but would also like the best possible spot so would "settle" for friday. Sucks to lose all picks. I don't understand how it is possible for anyone who got GA for Brooklyn 2 if it was not their 1st priority pick based on the 10c lottery rules.
Brooklyn 2 GA
Brooklyn 1 GA
Brooklyn 2 Res
Brooklyn 1 Res
The data isn't actually saying that. I didn't crosstab specific requests vs. wins. I am only showing where the volume of requests for choice 1-3 exist, and where people won choice 1-10. Those data elements aren't correlating. Hope I'm being clear.
I feel like I have as good a handle on how the lottery worked as anyone, but I can't explain that either. If Brooklyn GA 2 was your first priority and you didn't get it when others who had it has second priority did, it doesn't make sense.
Maybe they're lying or mistaken. Have you double-checked that it was your first priority?
...are those who've helped us.
Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
I put in for 4 shows, I lost out on Seattle as my #1 and #2 choice and got my # 4, #5, and #8 picks <
though I think those shows were not as in demand, I don't recall people complaining they didn't get tickets to those shows, so maybe 10c has leftovers?
So I have bad luck? (I didn't participate in the survey as it got buried among all the bitchy threads)
- Christopher McCandless
Got it. So maybe nobody got Brooklyn 2 GA with a second choice?
...are those who've helped us.
Right 'round the corner could be bigger than ourselves.
That is what I think it is saying. People had it listed as their #2 pick, but it is not saying they actually won it with the #2 pick, or lower for that matter.
I am thinking the data entry is messed up and that i just lost out due to high demand and bad luck of the draw. The data is misleading since it shows red, green and blue (choices 1, 2 and 3) in the graph for GA in Brooklyn when I have to believe these tickets went to 1st priority picks only.
let me correct that.. my interpretation of the graph was wrong. i see now it is just showing popular picks not winning picks.
I think that what is more than statistically significant is that 76% of the people who responded to the poll won their first choice - not 76% of all who entered. The data is interesting, but it's only a sample, and any conclusions drawn from it should include that caveat.
"76% of those that responded to the poll won their first choice? More than statistically significant."
Your argument is that the sample is inherently biased therefore not an accurate representation of the population that entered the lottery. I think that may be true but I don't know. IF it's not biased, then this sample size is more than enough to achieve a 95/5/5 objective. Once you are over 383, you are there. Now if you want to splice and evaluate each show, then I agree, it's not there.