***The Official Philadelphia Phillies 2013 Thread***

Cliffy6745

pjhawks said:

per the linked article below, the last two years phils are 77-63 in games Ryan Howard has started. which equates to 89 wins over a full season.

and 77-107 in games he has not started.

pretty interesting especially when considering he played those 2 years with a bad leg. wonder how the haters will spin those numbers . fact is even striking out a 3rd of his at bats this team wins when ryan is in the lineup.

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/countdown-clearwater-big-piece-ryan-howard

Yikes

.244/.307/.445 over that same timeframe. You're willing to bet that those numbers carry a team?

Wobbie

good to see the phillies thread getting cranked up again. you guys will be the last ones left here. )

Cliffy6745

So the news about Hamels comes out and 5 minutes later Burnett is signed. haha.

JK_Livin

Burnett is the hizzzouse!

The Juggler

JK_Livin said:

Burnett is the hizzzouse!

only a 1 year deal too. good stuff.......but now hamels has tendinitis....hahaha...fuck

JK_Livin

Moyer is around just in case!

pjhawks

Hamels with tendintis not a good way to start spring training.

The Fixer

Cliffy6745 said:

So the news about Hamels comes out and 5 minutes later Burnett is signed. haha.

Yeah, this is the type of half assed, reactionary move that epitomizes why amaro sucks at his job. If amaro thought burnett could help them he should have signed him two months ago. If hamels is injured long term then this is the equivalent of putting a band aid on skin cancer...and if he's not injured long term it doesn't matter because this lineup has sucked for 4 years now (you would think the GM would try to improve this aspect of his team).

The way they operate makes me shake my head. So frustrating...there is no discernible plan in place for the short or long term. The phillies have become the pre-Hinkie sixers, which is a shame

The Juggler

The Fixer said:

Cliffy6745 said:

So the news about Hamels comes out and 5 minutes later Burnett is signed. haha.

Yeah, this is the type of half assed, reactionary move that epitomizes why amaro sucks at his job. If amaro thought burnett could help them he should have signed him two months ago. If hamels is injured long term then this is the equivalent of putting a band aid on skin cancer...and if he's not injured long term it doesn't matter because this lineup has sucked for 4 years now (you would think the GM would try to improve this aspect of his team).

The way they operate makes me shake my head. So frustrating...there is no discernible plan in place for the short or long term. The phillies have become the pre-Hinkie sixers, which is a shame

well 2 months ago he was saying he would only sign with pittsburgh or retire. burnett hemming and hawing all winter means the phils actually got a good deal here.

looking at this objectively, i don't see how it doesn't make sense. if literally everything goes right (it wont, obviously-but that is how ruben has to operate), his presence in the rotation may make them a wildcard contender. if they are injured and out of it (most likely), they can flip him for a prospect or two come july. there's no real risk in this signing.

The Fixer

The Juggler said:

The Fixer said:

Cliffy6745 said:

So the news about Hamels comes out and 5 minutes later Burnett is signed. haha.

Yeah, this is the type of half assed, reactionary move that epitomizes why amaro sucks at his job. If amaro thought burnett could help them he should have signed him two months ago. If hamels is injured long term then this is the equivalent of putting a band aid on skin cancer...and if he's not injured long term it doesn't matter because this lineup has sucked for 4 years now (you would think the GM would try to improve this aspect of his team).

The way they operate makes me shake my head. So frustrating...there is no discernible plan in place for the short or long term. The phillies have become the pre-Hinkie sixers, which is a shame

well 2 months ago he was saying he would only sign with pittsburgh or retire. burnett hemming and hawing all winter means the phils actually got a good deal here.

looking at this objectively, i don't see how it doesn't make sense. if literally everything goes right (it wont, obviously-but that is how ruben has to operate), his presence in the rotation may make them a wildcard contender. if they are injured and out of it (most likely), they can flip him for a prospect or two come july. there's no real risk in this signing.

well, being that he lives in Maryland and has stated numerous times that he would only sign with a team close to home, I think it's pretty safe to assume there is a no trade clause (at least a limited NTC) included in his contract. I hope that's not the case, but Amaro typically gives them out like Halloween candy.

I guess we will see once the contract details become public. You continue to have more faith in the GM than I do

The Juggler

The Fixer said:

The Juggler said:

The Fixer said:

Cliffy6745 said:

So the news about Hamels comes out and 5 minutes later Burnett is signed. haha.

Yeah, this is the type of half assed, reactionary move that epitomizes why amaro sucks at his job. If amaro thought burnett could help them he should have signed him two months ago. If hamels is injured long term then this is the equivalent of putting a band aid on skin cancer...and if he's not injured long term it doesn't matter because this lineup has sucked for 4 years now (you would think the GM would try to improve this aspect of his team).

The way they operate makes me shake my head. So frustrating...there is no discernible plan in place for the short or long term. The phillies have become the pre-Hinkie sixers, which is a shame

well 2 months ago he was saying he would only sign with pittsburgh or retire. burnett hemming and hawing all winter means the phils actually got a good deal here.

looking at this objectively, i don't see how it doesn't make sense. if literally everything goes right (it wont, obviously-but that is how ruben has to operate), his presence in the rotation may make them a wildcard contender. if they are injured and out of it (most likely), they can flip him for a prospect or two come july. there's no real risk in this signing.

well, being that he lives in Maryland and has stated numerous times that he would only sign with a team close to home, I think it's pretty safe to assume there is a no trade clause (at least a limited NTC) included in his contract. I hope that's not the case, but Amaro typically gives them out like Halloween candy.

I guess we will see once the contract details become public. You continue to have more faith in the GM than I do

hey i think he should go at this point too. but i don't see how anyone can rationally be upset over this signing. just this morning david murphy was musing about how he could demand a 2 year deal. that would have been terrible. one year for this guy at market price, i have no problem with it. prob will have a limited no trade though, you're right about that.

jamminpearls

Like Jeags said I like it because if all goes right we could have 3 solid starters. I don't expect it to go well though, but for 1yr why not. Either we play well and everyone's happy or we suck and Ruben gets fired. Which would also make everyone happy. The other pitchers on the market will cost yrs,money and a draft pick. So wtf why not at this point.

eeriepadave

Yeah signing Burnett couldn't hurt especially w/ Hamels hurt.

The Fixer

I think it's a subconscious reaction of mine to immediately hate anything amaro does. exactly like how I reach for the remote as soon as I hear the sportscenter music (I can't watch espn unless there's a game or college football gameday on -- one that doesn't include doris burke or beth mowins).

Keith Law agrees with me...love the comment about the $125 million waste of space

Without context, the signing of A.J. Burnett looks like a coup for the Phillies. They signed one of the top dozen starters in the National League from 2013 to a one-year deal that, at $16 million, doesn't overpay based on his recent standard of production. Burnett is 37 years old and has had injury problems earlier in his career as well as a reputation for an unwillingness to play through pain or discomfort that he has disproved in the past few seasons. He was worth 4 Wins Above Replacement in 2013 (using Fangraphs' version, which normalizes BABIP), 3 the year before, and even at that level would represent good value at $16 million.

Context is everything, of course, and the Phillies aren't the right team to hand a 37-year-old pitcher a one-year deal unless it is with the idea of flipping him for long-term assets at some point during the season. The Phillies aren't contenders as constructed; even before Cole Hamels revealed his shoulder bothered him this offseason and he won't be ready for Opening Day, they looked like a sub-.500 team. Adding Burnett might have pushed them to 81 wins but not more. Now he looks more like Hamels' replacement for at least part of the season, and if Hamels' injury is serious and not just temporary soreness, the Phillies would be more likely to end up around 75 wins even with Burnett taking the ball 33 times.

Burnett is also an exceptionally poor fit for the Phillies' roster. Since arriving in Pittsburgh and working with Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, Burnett has become a ground ball machine (remarkably without losing his ability to miss bats) and relied on the Pirates' ability to position defenders well to get more outs. The Phillies have a poor defensive left side of their infield -- Jimmy Rollins has declined to below average, and Cody Asche hasn't shown anything to make me think he'll be an average defender this year -- and they don't use the kind of analytics that Pittsburgh used to become one of the majors' most efficient defenses last year. A healthy Chase Utley is an asset with the glove, but Ryan Howard is a huge liability at first. Burnett is going to find the ground balls he generates have better vision than they did in 2013.

If the Phillies signed Burnett to make 20 starts and then become trade bait in July, that's a much better plan, as they could use another high-level prospect or two to bridge the gap until the wave of teenage prospects in their system gets another two years closer to the majors. Burnett, however, was willing to sign with only a limited number of teams this winter -- Pittsburgh, Philly and Baltimore among them -- and I expect we'll hear the Phillies had to give Burnett at least limited no-trade protection to get him to sign a one-year deal. The more restrictive the no-trade clause, the worse it is for the Phillies.

The Juggler

yeah but to be fair, i believe law was the only one i saw yesterday who didn't agree with the signing. even the law loving dudes at crashburn liked it.

thought this was a good analysis from tgp:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/2/13/5407622/a-j-burnett-signing-a-boon-to-phillies-bullpen


A.J. Burnett Signing A Boon To Phillies Bullpen

By John Stolnis @FelskeFiles on Feb 13 2014, 11:01a 24
Doug Pensinger

The reported signing of A.J. Burnett to a contract not only helps the starting rotation. It also helps the bullpen get deeper and stronger.
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With reports that the Phillies have signed free agent starter A.J. Burnett to either a one-year, $16 million deal, or a deal that includes a second year option of some kind, the Phils have apparently filled a massive hole in their starting rotation.

I guess I'm going to have to forgive him for Game 2 of the 2009 World Series now, aren't I?

Even with a limited or full no-trade clause (which was always going to be a part of this deal, given how much of Burnett's decision was based on location to his current home in Maryland), the Phillies did well to sign a true #3 starter to slot in behind Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and allows the Phils to slide Kyle Kendrick to the #4 spot in the rotation, with Roberto Hernandez, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez and Jonathan Pettibone battling it out for the fifth spot.

This is all good news. The new Phillies rotation is among the strongest in the National League, and rivals the Washington Nationals' rotation for best in the NL East. But the A.J. signing does more than just give the Phils a stronger rotation.

The Phillies also upgraded their bullpen in the deal as well.

No, they didn't sign a reliever. Instead, two of the three starters that will lose out on a job in the rotation can now be moved to the bullpen to compete with the stable of young arms already there, or be sent to AAA for more consistent innings in Lehigh Valley's rotation.

The man with the inside track for the #5 spot is likely Hernandez, whom the Phils signed to a one-year, $4.5 million deal. His salary and experience makes him the most likely candidate to land the job, provided he doesn't implode in spring training.

That means the Phillies can now move Gonzalez to the 'pen, taking some of the pressure off the young Cuban mystery man and allowing him to get acclimated to big league hitters in a less pressurized environment. No one knows what MAG is going to give the Phils this year, and allowing him to ease into his new role in the Majors is likely the best option for everybody.

The Burnett signing also means the end of the Ethan Martin-as-starter experiment. Martin has terrific stuff but, as he has shown throughout his minor league career and his brief 40-inning cup of coffee with the team last year, his effectiveness and control wanes as the game goes on.

Split IP ERA PA SO/BB OPS
1st inning 7.2 4.70 38 3.00 .762
2nd inning 7.0 5.14 26 10.00 .564
3rd inning 7.0 5.14 32 3.50 .838
4th inning 6.0 4.50 31 .570 .961
5th inning 4.0 15.75 24 .330 1.333
6th inning 4.0 4.50 16 6.00 .717
Innings 1-3 21.2 4.98 96 4.14 .733
Innings 4-6 14 7.71 71 0.86 1.022

As you can see, in the early innings of Martin's starts last year (granted, in a small sample size), his SO/BB ratio was higher and his OPS allowed was lower than in the later innings. Martin's stuff and stamina simply don't translate into him being an effective starter. But he could be a dynamite reliever, and some believe he is the team's potential closer of the future.

His addition to the bullpen could be a huge difference maker for the team this year.

So the Phillies now have an abundance of bullpen arms that could miss a ton of bats in Martin, Gonzalez, Antonio Bastardo, Jake Diekman, Brad Lincoln, Jeremy Horst, Justin De Fratus, B.J. Rosenberg, as well as veteran (that's code for "old," by the way) relievers Mike Adams, and Jonathan Papelbon.

There's a lot of uncertainty in that group, but also a mountain of potential.

Now of course, with Cole Hamels' surprise announcement Wednesday that he is battling shoulder tendinitis and will not be ready for Opening Day, injuries to the rotation could change everything. But given a healthy rotation of Lee-Hamels-Burnett-Kendrick-Hernandez, the Phillies not only helped their rotation with the Burnett signing.

They've also given their bullpen even more of a chance to be dominant in 2014.

The Fixer

To me it really all comes down to whether or not he got a ntc. Knowing what we know about amaro, I'm sure he gave him one. Which means they just flushed another $16 mill down the shitter.

Also, I will take Law over any other analyst in the industry. Dude is right a whole hell of a lot more than he is wrong. He's the best out there.

I really don't even care any more. I want this team to go down in flames so amaro gets canned. That's the only way they are becoming relevant again. Amaro = Doug Collins/Larry Brown, only worse...which I didn't think was possible

The Fixer

Also, I think their bullpen will be improved but it's virtually impossible to have a dominant bullpen when the closer sucks

jamminpearls

The Fixer said:

To me it really all comes down to whether or not he got a ntc. Knowing what we know about amaro, I'm sure he gave him one. Which means they just flushed another $16 mill down the shitter.

Also, I will take Law over any other analyst in the industry. Dude is right a whole hell of a lot more than he is wrong. He's the best out there.

I really don't even care any more. I want this team to go down in flames so amaro gets canned. That's the only way they are becoming relevant again. Amaro = Doug Collins/Larry Brown, only worse...which I didn't think was possible

Would you rather a title this yr or suck so Amaro gets fired?

The Fixer

jamminpearls said:

The Fixer said:

To me it really all comes down to whether or not he got a ntc. Knowing what we know about amaro, I'm sure he gave him one. Which means they just flushed another $16 mill down the shitter.

Also, I will take Law over any other analyst in the industry. Dude is right a whole hell of a lot more than he is wrong. He's the best out there.

I really don't even care any more. I want this team to go down in flames so amaro gets canned. That's the only way they are becoming relevant again. Amaro = Doug Collins/Larry Brown, only worse...which I didn't think was possible

Would you rather a title this yr or suck so Amaro gets fired?

Dude, this team has zero chance of winning a title. They will be lucky to finish .500

The Fixer

Phillies over/under for wins is 78. World Series here we come!!