This should be an interesting game. Purdy didn't play great yesterday, but he stayed efficient and didn't make any big mistakes. After watching Jimmy for the past few years in the playoffs, it was a welcome change for sure.
This should be an interesting game. Purdy didn't play great yesterday, but he stayed efficient and didn't make any big mistakes. After watching Jimmy for the past few years in the playoffs, it was a welcome change for sure.
He seems to put a couple balls up for grabs every game - the defense just needs to catch 'em.
Cowboys sissied out of coming to The Linc - a la the 1983 Celtics.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
This should be an interesting game. Purdy didn't play great yesterday, but he stayed efficient and didn't make any big mistakes. After watching Jimmy for the past few years in the playoffs, it was a welcome change for sure.
He seems to put a couple balls up for grabs every game - the defense just needs to catch 'em.
Cowboys sissied out of coming to The Linc - a la the 1983 Celtics.
Hopefully he can get a lock on that as he gets more experience, unlike Jimmy who has done it his entire career.
Wow depending on where you're looking Birds are 1.5/2 point faves. That's not great.
I would've guessed 3. Seeing -2.5 now.
I think we were 3 point dogs five years ago.
Yeah, I see it's moved, but still confusing to me that it's not -3. That's basically the default, anything less would tell me they're a dog on a neutral field. And if this was in SF that would mean it would be -3.5.
What I'm saying is they should totally be leaning into being the #1 seed dogs again.
I saw this mentioned on twitter and believe it to be true---that this playoff game is probably the least memorable of any Philadelphia playoff performance. Even less memorable than the post Iverson, Tony DiLeo coached purgatory Sixers teams that never had a chance.
Everything from the weird early midnight green jerseys, to Ty Detmer being the quarterback, to them playing in a monsoon, to the fact that literally nobody had any faith in that team whatsoever with them struggling in the 2nd half of the season---all of this adds up...to a big zero of a game.
Yeah absolutely no memory of this game. I do remember everyone thought Ty Detmer would be something for a hot minute. Amazing how the Andy/Donovan trajectory improved everything. This town had no idea what having a consistent, reliable, very good quarterback looked like before then. I also distinctly remember Detmer being interviewed one time and saying something along the lines of "we're ready to become a team that belongs with the elite" and I couldn't not laugh.
And the next season was the Bobby Hoying year. Hahaha.....for like a month people thought Ray Rhodes just stumbled upon the next Dan Marino or something.
Man I hated those new uniforms back then. Look at how weird that still shot of Detmer looks with the blue stripe on the sleeves. Glad they revamped them a few years later but I cannot wait until the kelly green comes back.
yeah i barely remember that one at all. Hopefully a different outcome this time. I can see us vs Cincy in the SB.
8/28/98- Camden, NJ
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PA
Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly. PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA
I remember watching that game but just being apathetic and knowing they were gonna lose. That was the team that beat Aikman and the Cowboys with the crazy last minute 100 yard pick-six, then promptly collapsed from 7-2. Then the 1997 team somehow couldn't win on the road the whole year and the whole thing fell apart in 1998 when Ricky Watters went to Seattle and had an instant revenge game in Week 1 (I think).
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
That's the thing - Detmer was talking "elite", all the while that was the glory days of the 9ers, Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, etc. We had no business even thinking we belonged with those teams lol - I'd argue it's also related to the Bobby Hoying stans. One being my fucking uncle. It was Very Delco to be a huge Bobby Hoying fan. I remember this one dude, a friend of my dad's, bought the fucking guy's jersey. Sad, sad times.
The Midnight Green has always been trash. The logo, font, all of it. Apparently the only reason they've kept it this long is because it was Lurie's ex-wife's one claim to fame to the team, she came up with it or something.
I was at the Bobby Hoying Game when they beat the Bengals like 44-42. I thought it was cool but I was oblivious that he was being instantly anointed the Franchise Savior. Is that also the year they got crushed by the 49ers on MNF and someone shot off a flair in the stands? And the Seamus McCaffrey stadium courtroom was in full usage. Good old days.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
I'd be willing to bet another reason the midnight green has lasted as long as it has is because the whole stadium is awash in that color. I'd assume if they go back to kelly full time, they'd want to change out all the seats and update the whole look. Maybe they'll kill a couple birds with one stone when they make their World Cup enhancements in a few years.
The fact that the last 25 years have also been the most successful in franchise history (save for the late 40's of course!) factors into it as well...but it shouldn't. That's also probably the reason the Broncos have been stuck in their shitty uniforms since Elway retired too .
• It’s a measure of how good and evenly matched these teams are that a game between the No. 6 offense and No. 6 defense by DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) feels like the undercard. Brock Purdy has literally never lost an NFL game as a starting quarterback, and the San Francisco offense improved once he took over — it went from 0.21 expected points added (EPA) per drive in Weeks 1-12 to 0.43 since Week 13, including the playoffs. That 0.43 EPA per drive would have been good for No. 4 in the league over the course of the season.
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The anecdotal book on Purdy is that, like the Kyle Shanahan prototype, he gets rid of the ball quickly and mostly throws short and over the middle of the field. The numbers only sort of back that up. His average time to throw, per TruMedia, is 2.78 seconds, which would rank 25th of 34 qualifying quarterbacks. His average depth of target is 7.61 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, good for 20th.
He definitely throws over the middle of the field, though. According to TruMedia, 62 percent of Purdy’s passes this season, including the playoffs, have been between the numbers. The league average is 44.6 percent.
• Given that penchant, there figures to be a lot of stress placed on the middle of the Eagles’ defense. This note courtesy of The Athletic’s Aaron Reiss might surprise you: No defense in the league has allowed fewer yards after the catch per reception on in-breaking routes this season than Philadelphia (2.0). Jonathan Gannon’s unit has allowed in-breaking routes to turn into explosive gains (defined as 16 yards or more) just 13.5 percent of the time, the third-lowest rate in the league, and ranks 10th in defensive success rate on those plays. San Francisco, for the fifth year running, led the league in in-breaking routes.
• If one of the Eagles’ defensive superpowers — having Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the outside — is somewhat muted by that middle-of-the-field focus, we’ll see whether they get Avonte Maddox back from the toe injury that has kept him out since Week 16.
“We’re hopeful,” Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said of Maddox on Monday, “but he’s still got to get out there and run on the field and do drills, so it’s not something that we know quite yet because there’s some unknown of some of the football movements that he has to go out there and do. We’ll see.”
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If Maddox is unable to return, C.J. Gardner-Johnson will presumably remain in the slot when the Eagles have at least five defensive backs on the field, with Reed Blankenship filling in at safety. Blankenship has really impressed and has the physicality to match up with the Niners’ offense, but the lack of speed we saw on that one Christian Watson touchdown in Week 12 might cause some mid-week nightmares for Eagles fans with Deebo Samuel coming to town.
• The Eagles will encounter the endangered species of fullbacks this weekend. San Francisco lined up in 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end) 32.3 percent of the time this season, per TruMedia, the second-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense saw the third-fewest snaps of 21 personnel (but ranked eighth in defensive success rate when they did). It’s not quite the same thing, but the Eagles fared well in general against heavier packages. They finished second in the league in EPA per play and fifth in defensive success rate against 12 personnel.
• Christian McCaffrey as a receiver will be a problem to solve for Gannon this week. Over the course of the season, here’s how the Eagles’ passing defense ranked against different types of receivers, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA:
No. 1 WRs: No. 2
No. 2 WRs: No. 4
“Other”: No. 22
TE: No. 6
RB: No. 24
Eagles offense vs. 49ers defense
Tale of the tape
PHI O
SF D
DVOA
3rd
1st
EPA/play
4th (0.06)
1st (0.11)
Success%
3rd (45.3%)
4th (61.2%)
Pass DVOA
9th
5th
EPA/dropback
7th (0.08)
2nd (0.08)
Dropback success%
13th (46.1%)
6th (58.5%)
Run DVOA
1st
2nd
EPA/run
1st (0.10)
2nd (0.15)
Run success%
1st (48.9%)
2nd (64.7%)
• The main event. One of the league’s best offenses against the league’s best defense, with a titanic strength-on-strength matchup in the running game. It’s true the Niners’ defense has not really faced an offense with a running threat at quarterback like Jalen Hurts (they played Justin Fields in Week 1 in a pseudo-monsoon before the Bears’ offense changed its identity to embrace Fields’ running), but there aren’t many threats like Hurts to begin with.
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Hurts and the Eagles opened things up with their willingness to run despite his injured shoulder against the Giants in the divisional round, though the game was so lopsided they didn’t need to embrace it fully. That might change Sunday for a team that has prided itself in the past on running through the top run defenses in the league.
• One thing the Eagles did so well all season, and cranked up against the Giants, was play against personnel type. They spread things out to run and throw the ball out of heavy formations. Including the playoffs, the Eagles are averaging a league-best 0.17 EPA per rush out of 11 personnel while also averaging a league-best 0.42 EPA per dropback out of 12 personnel.
The Niners’ defense has been just as great against the run out of 11 personnel (0.18 defensive EPA per rush, No. 1 in the league) but does drop down to 15th in defensive EPA per dropback against 12 personnel.
• If there is a relative weakness in the Niners’ run defense, it might be short yardage. Per Reiss, San Francisco ranks 31st in third-and-short defense, allowing opponents to convert 69.6 percent of the time, including the playoffs. The Eagles rank No. 3 in third-and-short conversion rate (68.5 percent).
• One personnel tweak we saw from the Eagles in the divisional round was a little more Zach Pascal at the expense of Quez Watkins. That could make sense again in a game that figures to be physical, but there might also be an opportunity to pop Watkins for a big play down the field (like they did in the Week 2 matchup of the 2021 season when Watkins caught a 91-yard pass). According to Football Outsiders, San Francisco ranked 24th in DVOA against deep passes while, according to TruMedia, it ranked 26th in EPA per play and 23rd in defensive success rate against passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield.
• San Francisco’s defense versus different types of receivers, per Football Outsiders:
No. 1 WRs: No. 4
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No. 2 WRs: No. 18
“Other”: No. 30
TE: No. 13
RB: No. 1
• It just feels like this will be the game in which the Eagles need their organizational investment in having perhaps the league’s best tandem of wide receivers to pay off. Nothing is likely to come easy, so DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown will need to make important plays on contested catches. The two combined for just 83 yards receiving on nine catches against the Giants. Brown, who had just three receptions for 22 yards, was seen on the sideline upset about something and did not speak in the locker room after the game. Sirianni confirmed Monday it was in part because he wanted more touches.
“He’s always going to want the ball,” Sirianni said. “He’s a really good player. Not really anybody in the pass game really got a lot of targets or a lot of opportunities because we were running the ball so well. But that’s what you want from your receivers, to want to have the football. Part of the reason why receivers are good is because they want and crave the football. They want the ball to change the game. But make no mistake about it, he was thrilled that we won the football game. Always wants to be involved, obviously, in the plan. He blocked his butt off, and you could see how excited he was when he sprang that block for DeVonta’s touchdown.”
There’s a good chance Brown will get what he wants Sunday.
Waited in the ticket master queue for over an hour and all the tickets available are their resale market. My old seats are going for $1,000 a piece, which isn't bad compared to everything else. HAHA....no sir!
Waited in the ticket master queue for over an hour and all the tickets available are their resale market. My old seats are going for $1,000 a piece, which isn't bad compared to everything else. HAHA....no sir!
Haha, did the same "2000+ people ahead of you in the queue". Oh well, but, yeah, based on what Phils playoff tickets were going for I had a feeling how nuts this was going to get.
I'll probably take the kids down on Sunday for the walk (and the circus) tho.
Waited in the ticket master queue for over an hour and all the tickets available are their resale market. My old seats are going for $1,000 a piece, which isn't bad compared to everything else. HAHA....no sir!
Haha, did the same "2000+ people ahead of you in the queue". Oh well, but, yeah, based on what Phils playoff tickets were going for I had a feeling how nuts this was going to get.
I'll probably take the kids down on Sunday for the walk (and the circus) tho.
Haha - yeah the walk back up to 16th & Bigler or wherever on Saturday night was hilarious.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Waited in the ticket master queue for over an hour and all the tickets available are their resale market. My old seats are going for $1,000 a piece, which isn't bad compared to everything else. HAHA....no sir!
Haha, did the same "2000+ people ahead of you in the queue". Oh well, but, yeah, based on what Phils playoff tickets were going for I had a feeling how nuts this was going to get.
I'll probably take the kids down on Sunday for the walk (and the circus) tho.
Haha - yeah the walk back up to 16th & Bigler or wherever on Saturday night was hilarious.
"One note on the Eagles’ run defense: Things changed significantly after the team signed Linval Joseph in the aftermath of its loss to Washington in Week 10 when Jordan Davis was on injured reserve. The Eagles’ splits from Weeks 1-10 and since Week 11, including the playoffs, are stark. Before Joseph, they had a defensive success rate of 54.8 percent on runs and a defensive EPA (expected points added) per rush of -0.07. Over the course of a full season, that would be good for 32nd in the league and 31st, respectively. Post-Joseph, they have a defensive success rate of 65.4 percent against runs and a defensive EPA per rush of 0.13. Those would be good for second and third in the league, respectively, over the course of a full season. I think Jonathan Gannon will be more concerned with surrendering explosive plays against play-action over the middle of the field than Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell running on them all afternoon."
Do the Eagles re-sign Linval? Seems like there's a stark contrast once they realized they needed help in this role, and how much he's contributed (and how quickly he's done so).
I remember after Jordan Davis got hurt it seemed like the run D got really bad (they're still talking about the Commies' MNF game plan as a way to beat the Eagles - everyone else has tried that and it didn't work) and the Joseph & Suh signings were out of absolute necessity. Seems like having Joseph back would be good but hopefully not impact Davis' development.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
I remember after Jordan Davis got hurt it seemed like the run D got really bad (they're still talking about the Commies' MNF game plan as a way to beat the Eagles - everyone else has tried that and it didn't work) and the Joseph & Suh signings were out of absolute necessity. Seems like having Joseph back would be good but hopefully not impact Davis' development.
I don't think Cox is back next year, or at the very least not back at his current salary. That's how I can see Linval coming back.
I remember after Jordan Davis got hurt it seemed like the run D got really bad (they're still talking about the Commies' MNF game plan as a way to beat the Eagles - everyone else has tried that and it didn't work) and the Joseph & Suh signings were out of absolute necessity. Seems like having Joseph back would be good but hopefully not impact Davis' development.
I don't think Cox is back next year, or at the very least not back at his current salary. That's how I can see Linval coming back.
Oh yeah, that computes. He will probably go to Dallas.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
This really is the only publication I have no qualms paying a sub for, great article. Hot take - Berman's going to be the new Didinger when he's 60 years old.
Also makes me think - anybody on this team now that are/could be HOFers? And I think it's crazy to think but there's possibly three of them currently on this team: Kelce, Lane, Cox (and JP to join them; BG goes ring of honor but not HOF). I think this is true especially if they win this whole thing in 3 weeks.
Kelce, Lane & Fletch are Hall of Famers, already Super Bowl Champs, and will have their numbers retired and this team might run out of numbers.
Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; WF Center 10/21/13; WF Center 10/22/13; Baltimore 10/27/13; WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Comments
I think we were 3 point dogs five years ago.
Cowboys sissied out of coming to The Linc - a la the 1983 Celtics.
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
What I'm saying is they should totally be leaning into being the #1 seed dogs again.
Everything from the weird early midnight green jerseys, to Ty Detmer being the quarterback, to them playing in a monsoon, to the fact that literally nobody had any faith in that team whatsoever with them struggling in the 2nd half of the season---all of this adds up...to a big zero of a game.
Man I hated those new uniforms back then. Look at how weird that still shot of Detmer looks with the blue stripe on the sleeves. Glad they revamped them a few years later but I cannot wait until the kelly green comes back.
10/31/09- Philly
5/21/10- NYC
9/2/12- Philly, PA
7/19/13- Wrigley
10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
10/21/13- Philly, PA
10/22/13- Philly, PA
10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
4/28/16- Philly, PA
4/29/16- Philly, PA
5/1/16- NYC
5/2/16- NYC
9/2/18- Boston, MA
9/4/18- Boston, MA
9/14/22- Camden, NJ
9/7/24- Philly, PA
9/9/24- Philly, PA
Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
The Midnight Green has always been trash. The logo, font, all of it. Apparently the only reason they've kept it this long is because it was Lurie's ex-wife's one claim to fame to the team, she came up with it or something.
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
I'd be willing to bet another reason the midnight green has lasted as long as it has is because the whole stadium is awash in that color. I'd assume if they go back to kelly full time, they'd want to change out all the seats and update the whole look. Maybe they'll kill a couple birds with one stone when they make their World Cup enhancements in a few years.
The fact that the last 25 years have also been the most successful in franchise history (save for the late 40's of course!) factors into it as well...but it shouldn't. That's also probably the reason the Broncos have been stuck in their shitty uniforms since Elway retired too .
https://theathletic.com/4119045/2023/01/24/eagles-49ers-nfc-championship-game/
Early look at Eagles-49ers NFC Championship: Where does each team have an advantage?
26
Some scattered thoughts on the NFC Championship Game as the long wait for Sunday at 3 p.m. ET continues.
49ers offense vs. Eagles defense
• It’s a measure of how good and evenly matched these teams are that a game between the No. 6 offense and No. 6 defense by DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) feels like the undercard. Brock Purdy has literally never lost an NFL game as a starting quarterback, and the San Francisco offense improved once he took over — it went from 0.21 expected points added (EPA) per drive in Weeks 1-12 to 0.43 since Week 13, including the playoffs. That 0.43 EPA per drive would have been good for No. 4 in the league over the course of the season.
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The anecdotal book on Purdy is that, like the Kyle Shanahan prototype, he gets rid of the ball quickly and mostly throws short and over the middle of the field. The numbers only sort of back that up. His average time to throw, per TruMedia, is 2.78 seconds, which would rank 25th of 34 qualifying quarterbacks. His average depth of target is 7.61 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, good for 20th.
He definitely throws over the middle of the field, though. According to TruMedia, 62 percent of Purdy’s passes this season, including the playoffs, have been between the numbers. The league average is 44.6 percent.
• Given that penchant, there figures to be a lot of stress placed on the middle of the Eagles’ defense. This note courtesy of The Athletic’s Aaron Reiss might surprise you: No defense in the league has allowed fewer yards after the catch per reception on in-breaking routes this season than Philadelphia (2.0). Jonathan Gannon’s unit has allowed in-breaking routes to turn into explosive gains (defined as 16 yards or more) just 13.5 percent of the time, the third-lowest rate in the league, and ranks 10th in defensive success rate on those plays. San Francisco, for the fifth year running, led the league in in-breaking routes.
GO DEEPER
NFC and AFC Championship Games: What to know about 49ers-Eagles, Bengals-Chiefs
• If one of the Eagles’ defensive superpowers — having Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the outside — is somewhat muted by that middle-of-the-field focus, we’ll see whether they get Avonte Maddox back from the toe injury that has kept him out since Week 16.
“We’re hopeful,” Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said of Maddox on Monday, “but he’s still got to get out there and run on the field and do drills, so it’s not something that we know quite yet because there’s some unknown of some of the football movements that he has to go out there and do. We’ll see.”
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If Maddox is unable to return, C.J. Gardner-Johnson will presumably remain in the slot when the Eagles have at least five defensive backs on the field, with Reed Blankenship filling in at safety. Blankenship has really impressed and has the physicality to match up with the Niners’ offense, but the lack of speed we saw on that one Christian Watson touchdown in Week 12 might cause some mid-week nightmares for Eagles fans with Deebo Samuel coming to town.
• The Eagles will encounter the endangered species of fullbacks this weekend. San Francisco lined up in 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end) 32.3 percent of the time this season, per TruMedia, the second-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense saw the third-fewest snaps of 21 personnel (but ranked eighth in defensive success rate when they did). It’s not quite the same thing, but the Eagles fared well in general against heavier packages. They finished second in the league in EPA per play and fifth in defensive success rate against 12 personnel.
• Christian McCaffrey as a receiver will be a problem to solve for Gannon this week. Over the course of the season, here’s how the Eagles’ passing defense ranked against different types of receivers, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA:
No. 1 WRs: No. 2
No. 2 WRs: No. 4
“Other”: No. 22
TE: No. 6
RB: No. 24
Eagles offense vs. 49ers defense
• The main event. One of the league’s best offenses against the league’s best defense, with a titanic strength-on-strength matchup in the running game. It’s true the Niners’ defense has not really faced an offense with a running threat at quarterback like Jalen Hurts (they played Justin Fields in Week 1 in a pseudo-monsoon before the Bears’ offense changed its identity to embrace Fields’ running), but there aren’t many threats like Hurts to begin with.
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Hurts and the Eagles opened things up with their willingness to run despite his injured shoulder against the Giants in the divisional round, though the game was so lopsided they didn’t need to embrace it fully. That might change Sunday for a team that has prided itself in the past on running through the top run defenses in the league.
• One thing the Eagles did so well all season, and cranked up against the Giants, was play against personnel type. They spread things out to run and throw the ball out of heavy formations. Including the playoffs, the Eagles are averaging a league-best 0.17 EPA per rush out of 11 personnel while also averaging a league-best 0.42 EPA per dropback out of 12 personnel.
The Niners’ defense has been just as great against the run out of 11 personnel (0.18 defensive EPA per rush, No. 1 in the league) but does drop down to 15th in defensive EPA per dropback against 12 personnel.
• If there is a relative weakness in the Niners’ run defense, it might be short yardage. Per Reiss, San Francisco ranks 31st in third-and-short defense, allowing opponents to convert 69.6 percent of the time, including the playoffs. The Eagles rank No. 3 in third-and-short conversion rate (68.5 percent).
GO DEEPER
The Day After: Eagles one win away from shot at Philadelphia immortality
• One personnel tweak we saw from the Eagles in the divisional round was a little more Zach Pascal at the expense of Quez Watkins. That could make sense again in a game that figures to be physical, but there might also be an opportunity to pop Watkins for a big play down the field (like they did in the Week 2 matchup of the 2021 season when Watkins caught a 91-yard pass). According to Football Outsiders, San Francisco ranked 24th in DVOA against deep passes while, according to TruMedia, it ranked 26th in EPA per play and 23rd in defensive success rate against passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield.
• San Francisco’s defense versus different types of receivers, per Football Outsiders:
No. 1 WRs: No. 4
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No. 2 WRs: No. 18
“Other”: No. 30
TE: No. 13
RB: No. 1
• It just feels like this will be the game in which the Eagles need their organizational investment in having perhaps the league’s best tandem of wide receivers to pay off. Nothing is likely to come easy, so DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown will need to make important plays on contested catches. The two combined for just 83 yards receiving on nine catches against the Giants. Brown, who had just three receptions for 22 yards, was seen on the sideline upset about something and did not speak in the locker room after the game. Sirianni confirmed Monday it was in part because he wanted more touches.
“He’s always going to want the ball,” Sirianni said. “He’s a really good player. Not really anybody in the pass game really got a lot of targets or a lot of opportunities because we were running the ball so well. But that’s what you want from your receivers, to want to have the football. Part of the reason why receivers are good is because they want and crave the football. They want the ball to change the game. But make no mistake about it, he was thrilled that we won the football game. Always wants to be involved, obviously, in the plan. He blocked his butt off, and you could see how excited he was when he sprang that block for DeVonta’s touchdown.”
There’s a good chance Brown will get what he wants Sunday.
(Photo: Bill Streicher / USA
I'll probably take the kids down on Sunday for the walk (and the circus) tho.
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
Do the Eagles re-sign Linval? Seems like there's a stark contrast once they realized they needed help in this role, and how much he's contributed (and how quickly he's done so).
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35526673/eagles-lane-johnson-mental-health-football-journey
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
https://theathletic.com/4127716/2023/01/26/eagles-fletcher-cox-nfl-playoffs/
Also makes me think - anybody on this team now that are/could be HOFers? And I think it's crazy to think but there's possibly three of them currently on this team: Kelce, Lane, Cox (and JP to join them; BG goes ring of honor but not HOF). I think this is true especially if they win this whole thing in 3 weeks.
WF Center 4/28/16; WF Center 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22;
Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; WF Center 9/7/24; WF Center 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24
Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
🐔 🥚
Jk.
The Athletic is legitimately the only sports resource I read every day. It is amazing.