Does Mitt Romney really have a shot at it ?

inlet13

he still stands wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

Does Romney have a shot? Absolutely. Anyone who says he doesn't is delusional.

In fact, state polls are saying Obama will lose:

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/gallup-state-numbers-predict-huge-obama-loss/352881

Personally, I think it's too early to know who will win. I'd bet against Obama, just because I think the economy will turn south this year. But, I think we'll be pretty sure by end of summer though. Because by end of summer, we'll have a good idea of where things will most likely be by November.

why do you think the economy will turn south this year? The trend is upward. What specific event will change the trend?

Well, most likely you wouldn't trust my own thoughts. But, I look at indicators like consumer confidence, and see warning signs. On top of that, my issue is really debt - here and abroad. I see the EU's economy diving this year, and we'll soon follow. We can't keep propping up the economy with props that are borrowed forever.

But, if you don't like my intuition, as I showed in another thread, the CBO came out this week and said they also expect unemployment to increase this year and next year, ending 2013 at around 9.3%. They expect GDP growth of 2% this year, which is terrible, and worse growth in 2013 - around 1%. That's the CBO's take, not mine.

Jason P

he still stands wrote:

why do you think the economy will turn south this year? The trend is upward. What specific event will change the trend?

The potential war in Iran (hopefully the US will not be involved) will send oil to $200 / barrel. That specific event will muck everything up.

inlet13

gimmesometruth27 wrote:

he still stands wrote:

why do you think the economy will turn south this year? The trend is upward. What specific event will change the trend?

pessimism......

or optimism depending on which way you look at it and who you want to win....

I don't want either of them (Romney or Obama) to win. You do, however. So, your post is ironic.

P.S. CBO is far from partisan, I would say. Since they agree with me.... Are they pessimistic? Or are they realists?

Monster Rain

That's a bit of a misrepresentation of his words, don't you think? The entire quote was, "I'm in this race because I care about Americans. I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I'll fix it. I'm not concerned about the very rich, they're doing just fine. I'm concerned about the very heart of the America, the 90 percent, 95 percent of Americans who right now are struggling."

Basically, what he was trying to say was that the middle class gets ignored while everyone else focuses on the very poor or very rich. The rich don't need help and the poor receive help--but if that system of helping the poor needs to be improved, he'll improve it. That's a far cry from saying he doesn't care about them.

he still stands wrote:

Monster Rain wrote:

Forgive my ignorance, but when did Romney say, "I don't care about poor people?"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/0 ... 46557.html

"Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney said on Wednesday that he's "not concerned about the very poor," citing the social safety net in place for that segment of the populace and adding that he's focused on the middle class..."

He has off shore bank accounts - although I don't have a problem with it, a lot of people do.
Obama will crush him in a debate, as he would with anyone. (that's not me supporting Obama)
The economy is turning around.
...I just don't see any way that Obama loses. Again, that's not an endorsement for the pitiful tyrant, just my perception of the public opinion.

he still stands

inlet13 wrote:

Well, most likely you wouldn't trust my own thoughts. But, I look at indicators like consumer confidence, and see warning signs. On top of that, my issue is really debt - here and abroad. I see the EU's economy diving this year, and we'll soon follow. We can't keep propping up the economy with props that are borrowed forever.

But, if you don't like my intuition, as I showed in another thread, the CBO came out this week and said they also expect unemployment to increase this year and next year, ending 2013 at around 9.3%. They expect GDP growth of 2% this year, which is terrible, and worse growth in 2013 - around 1%. That's the CBO's take, not mine.

interesting, because everything I've read predicts steady and modest growth in 2012 and 2013. "official" unemployment numbers will likely fall but only by a few tenths of a percent before the election. the housing market has hit bottom and is rebounding in most areas that aren't CA, AZ, FL and NV. Consumer spending is at an all time high, which is absurd to me but that's the case.

Certainly, the Europe debt crisis is something to consider. I don't think anyone can predict what's going to happen.

Iran isn't going to influence anything until 2013. Obama isn't stupid enough to fan those flames before the election, but after the election I'm sure we'll start launching bombs.

he still stands

Monster Rain wrote:

That's a bit of a misrepresentation of his words, don't you think? The entire quote was, "I'm in this race because I care about Americans. I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I'll fix it. I'm not concerned about the very rich, they're doing just fine. I'm concerned about the very heart of the America, the 90 percent, 95 percent of Americans who right now are struggling."

Basically, what he was trying to say was that the middle class gets ignored while everyone else focuses on the very poor or very rich. The rich don't need help and the poor receive help--but if that system of helping the poor needs to be improved, he'll improve it. That's a far cry from saying he doesn't care about them.

fair enough. I was just going by what the news ticker reads. and it reads "Romney says he doesn't care about the very poor."

gimmesometruth27

you are absolutely right i would favor obama to win over romney.

my post is not ironic. people who want obama out are optimistic it will fail. and to me their outlook for the economy is pessimistic. it depends exactly on how you look at it.

like other posters i see job report numbers going up the last several months. i saw that people spent record amounts of money in december, numbers not seen in a decade.

so now the cbo has credibility? i remember when the cbo was crunching the numbers on the obama insurance reform law and people all over this board said it was not credible because they did not like the outcome of what the cbo said. the cbo estimates get politicized all the time...all i know is we will see what we will see. and for people to hope the bottom falls out is the same as wanting your country to fail.

inlet13 wrote:

I don't want either of them (Romney or Obama) to win. You do, however. So, your post is ironic.

P.S. CBO is far from partisan, I would say. Since they agree with me.... Are they pessimistic? Or are they realists?

polaris_x

inlet13 wrote:

Personally, I think it's too early to know who will win. I'd bet against Obama, just because I think the economy will turn south this year. But, I think we'll be pretty sure by end of summer though. Because by end of summer, we'll have a good idea of where things will most likely be by November.

what happened to <paraphrasing> "obama has no shot at re-election and anyone who thinks so is a fool"? ...

inlet13

he still stands wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

Well, most likely you wouldn't trust my own thoughts. But, I look at indicators like consumer confidence, and see warning signs. On top of that, my issue is really debt - here and abroad. I see the EU's economy diving this year, and we'll soon follow. We can't keep propping up the economy with props that are borrowed forever.

But, if you don't like my intuition, as I showed in another thread, the CBO came out this week and said they also expect unemployment to increase this year and next year, ending 2013 at around 9.3%. They expect GDP growth of 2% this year, which is terrible, and worse growth in 2013 - around 1%. That's the CBO's take, not mine.

interesting, because everything I've read predicts steady and modest growth in 2012 and 2013. "official" unemployment numbers will likely fall but only by a few tenths of a percent before the election. the housing market has hit bottom and is rebounding in most areas that aren't CA, AZ, FL and NV. Consumer spending is at an all time high, which is absurd to me but that's the case.

Certainly, the Europe debt crisis is something to consider. I don't think anyone can predict what's going to happen.

Iran isn't going to influence anything until 2013. Obama isn't stupid enough to fan those flames before the election, but after the election I'm sure we'll start launching bombs.

Well, I think we can say this: consumer spending was flat (or fell very slightly) in December. People expected a big month, they didn't get it. Housing may be at it's bottom, but it's not growing. Consumer confidence plummeted recently. Unemployment is projected to worsen. Then there's the issues abroad and issues with our own debt. One sign I don't get is the stock market is moving up, despite some bad econ news. Why? I'm clueless. Personally, I think the jobs numbers will be interesting on Friday because the birth/death model will be factored in (I think).

I really, really want the economy to improve and want the market to jump up, I just honestly don't see the picture as rosey as you do. That's all. I see it as a scary picture. In fact, to me it's so scary, I'm reluctant to sell my house (we're outgrowing) and move into a bigger one right now. Seriously. I am worried that I'd be tying my hands financially.

whygohome

A year from today it will be President Romney.

1. People hate Obama.
2. The economy isn't recovering quickly enough from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depressions. This can be attributed to many, many factors, but in the end Obama is president. The idiocy of the instant gratification generation/culture is clear as day.
3. The propaganda campaign that has been waged since the fall of 2008.
"This is the Obama Recession"--Rush Limbaugh.
Add tot hat: socialist, Marxist, radical Kenyan muslim, birther bull shit--WOULD there be a birther issue if Obama was white? (or more accurately, 100% white?), and son on, and so on.

inlet13

polaris_x wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

Personally, I think it's too early to know who will win. I'd bet against Obama, just because I think the economy will turn south this year. But, I think we'll be pretty sure by end of summer though. Because by end of summer, we'll have a good idea of where things will most likely be by November.

what happened to <paraphrasing> "obama has no shot at re-election and anyone who thinks so is a fool"? ...

That is paraphrasing ha ha...

But, yes, I still don't think Obama will win. That said, I do think his chances are a bit better than they were 3-6 months ago. Why? Mainly the economy. Is the economy "really" better? No. Maybe in the short run it seems it is, but it's not. In fact, it's probably going to be really, really bad soon, just as I expected.

But, take unemployment for example. The average American only knows the number, they don't dig into the specifics of why it dropped, and that it most likely will eventually increase again soon. But, could it hold out in the 8.3% to 8.7% range until the election? Yes... it's increasingly possible. I mean, ask yourself this question real quick: why did the unemployment rate rise to roughly 10%, to fall back to about 8.5% (in 2012 - election year), only to go ahead and rise to above 9% (CBO prediction for 2013). Just think about it. So, with these scenarios playing out the potential that the economy could be propped up until the election a bit better than it was last year? Yes. That's why I've ever-so-slightly changed my tune. Yet, I still think he won't win and would bet against him.

But, I'll give Obama and his Keynesian cronies their due, they know marketing and are good with timing of their stimulus to benefit their political/economic agenda. Nevertheless, this short term micro management may be good for election purposes, and may even seem good economically, but when it turns down again and the hangover returns, people won't be happy..

mysticweed

Romney: 'I'm not concerned about the very poor'

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20 ... -very-poor

In an interview this morning, CNN's Soledad O'Brien asked Romney about perceptions that he doesn't understand the needs of average Americans. In response, Romney said:
This is a time people are worried. They're frightened. They want someone who they have confidence in. And I believe I will be able to instill that confidence in the American people. And, by the way, I'm in this race because I care about Americans. I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I'll fix it.
I'm not concerned about the very rich, they're doing just fine. I'm concerned about the very heart of the America, the 90, 95 percent of Americans who right now are struggling and I'll continue to take that message across the nation.
When O'Brien followed on Romney's I'm-not-concerned-about-the-very-poor comment, the presidential candidate responded:
The challenge right now – we will hear from the Democrat Party the plight of the poor, and – and there’s no question, it's not good being poor and we have a safety net to help those that are very poor.
But my campaign is focused on middle income Americans. My campaign – you can choose where to focus. You can focus on the rich. That's not my focus. You can focus on the very poor. That's not my focus.
(In fact, according to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, the largest benefits of Romney's tax plan go to the wealthy, not the middle class.)
Romney's comment about not being concerned about the poor is his latest statement that his rivals -- either Democratic or Republican -- could use to portray Romney as being out of touch with average Americans. Other examples:
-- his $10,000 bet with Rick Perry (at December GOP debate)
-- "I like being able to fire people," even though he was referring to insurers (at speech in New Hampshire)
-- "There were a couple of times I wondered if I was going to get a pink slip" (during remarks in New Hampshire)
-- saying that questions about economic inequality are "about envy" (on "TODAY" back in January)
-- and the ultimate release of his 2010 tax returns, which showed him paying an effective tax rate of less than 15%.

cincybearcat

he still stands wrote:

cincybearcat wrote:

he still stands wrote:

no, no one has a shot not named Obama. The GOP candidates (other than Ron Paul, who doesn't have a chance) are all crazy. It's like they were part of "The Hills Have Eyes" and wandered off the set.

Romney says he doesn't care about poor people and is a Mormon, so right there you lose the election. And Romney 100% will be the GOP candidate. I will bet anyone $10,000 that is the case.

Four more years of Obama.

How much are you willing to be that Obama will beat Romney?

$1,000.

That is some decent confidence.

Johnny Abruzzo

Romney clearly has a very good shot at it. He is a perfect traditional Repub candidate, and Repubs seem to win the majority of these things. He's loaded, extremely well funded, and has the unlimited super-PAC's going for him. Also, a lot of people don't like Obama for whatever reason (you know, he's (half) black).

My gut says that Obama pulls it out. Because people REALLY don't like Romney. (with good reason ) He has proven to be a better candidate, campaigner and debater than Romney as well. And Romney seems like a constant gaffe machine (even worse than Biden ), since as somebody who has been rich from birth he can't even come close to relating to real people. Obama's gaffes are more amusing than anything (Special Olympics, spilt milk, etc.)

cincybearcat

American airlines to cut almost 15% of their workforce.

Good economic news?


http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/01/news/co ... ?hpt=hp_t1

Johnny Abruzzo

cincybearcat wrote:

American airlines to cut almost 15% of their workforce.

Good economic news?


http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/01/news/co ... ?hpt=hp_t1

Maybe Southwest will hire them...

josevolution

Anything is possible in this country , i'm thinking Obama will win another term ..

Do people really think that Obama should of fixed the mess that was left from 8yrs of Republican policy in just one term i don't think this mess could be fixed in 16yrs of any administration ...

Go Beavers

inlet13 wrote:

Does Romney have a shot? Absolutely. Anyone who says he doesn't is delusional.

In fact, state polls are saying Obama will lose:

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/gallup-state-numbers-predict-huge-obama-loss/352881

Personally, I think it's too early to know who will win. I'd bet against Obama, just because I think the economy will turn south this year. But, I think we'll be pretty sure by end of summer though. Because by end of summer, we'll have a good idea of where things will most likely be by November.

Seriously, anyone who says Romney doesn't have a shot is delusional, and then you post that link. The article is a conservative doing his best to cling to the hope that everyone thinks Obama is so bad that they won't vote for him. He's referencing approval ratings state-by-state and then trying to conclude that will directly translate to how people vote. It doesn't play out that way, and I know you've seen these numbers:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Romney loses votes the more people learn about what a Mormon for President might look like. If he's the nominee, there will also be lower turn-out for conservative Christians, most of whom think Mormonism is a cult. Conservative Christians voted 2 to 1 for Newt in South Carolina. A few may swing to vote for Obama, because even though he a crazy member of the UCC church that's on all their liberal church lists, it's still a church.

To add to that, Romney's charisma is like an out of touch robots.

mikepegg44

Go Beavers wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

Does Romney have a shot? Absolutely. Anyone who says he doesn't is delusional.

In fact, state polls are saying Obama will lose:

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/gallup-state-numbers-predict-huge-obama-loss/352881

Personally, I think it's too early to know who will win. I'd bet against Obama, just because I think the economy will turn south this year. But, I think we'll be pretty sure by end of summer though. Because by end of summer, we'll have a good idea of where things will most likely be by November.

Seriously, anyone who says Romney doesn't have a shot is delusional, and then you post that link. The article is a conservative doing his best to cling to the hope that everyone thinks Obama is so bad that they won't vote for him. He's referencing approval ratings state-by-state and then trying to conclude that will directly translate to how people vote. It doesn't play out that way, and I know you've seen these numbers:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Romney loses votes the more people learn about what a Mormon for President might look like. If he's the nominee, there will also be lower turn-out for conservative Christians, most of whom think Mormonism is a cult. Conservative Christians voted 2 to 1 for Newt in South Carolina. A few may swing to vote for Obama, because even though he a crazy member of the UCC church that's on all their liberal church lists, it's still a church.

To add to that, Romney's charisma is like an out of touch robots.

got a 2nd term. Do you really want to tell me he has no chance?

Neo-cons will come out in droves to vote against Obama. That is the 2 party play book...vote against the other guy

Godfather.

josevolution wrote:

Anything is possible in this country , i'm thinking Obama will win another term ..

Do people really think that Obama should of fixed the mess that was left from 8yrs of Republican policy in just one term i don't think this mess could be fixed in 16yrs of any administration ...

I'm not too sure how all that works but I wonder why couldn't it be fixed in one term ? I'm not looking for an answer on the train I'm just curious why not ? what is that stops any president from changing thing's to improve our country,I know it's a little complicated I'm sure and I know he is fighting the Repubs on these changes but crap if it were changed in Bush's terms (good or bad) why can't Obama change it back ?...what the heck is going on in the friggin White House ?????
it may sound like a childish question but really why not ? isn't that why everybody voted for him.."change you can believe in" what the heck happened ????


Godfather.