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help me out, degenerate gamblers…ESPN ticker says THEosu is a six point favorite yet Texas has a 51% chance to win.
doesn’t make sense to me.If I had known then what I know now...
Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
VIC 07
EV LA1 08
Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
Columbus 10
EV LA 11
Vancouver 11
Missoula 12
Portland 13, Spokane 13
St. Paul 14, Denver 14Philly I & II, 16Denver 220 -
You serious @Wobbie?0
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markymark550 said:You serious @Wobbie?
ND is a 1.5 favorite but has a 59% win probability. Don’t make sense to me.
P.S. I know this whole win probability is junk science.If I had known then what I know now...
Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
VIC 07
EV LA1 08
Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
Columbus 10
EV LA 11
Vancouver 11
Missoula 12
Portland 13, Spokane 13
St. Paul 14, Denver 14Philly I & II, 16Denver 220 -
The win probability thing is based on FPI or whatever from regular season, doesn't take into account injuries and players not playing in bowl games for whatever reason.
If I recall the Syracuse/WSU game had the spread at SYR -17 (ended up at 18) and WSU a 51% FPI chance to win. Make sense out of that. The point spread is set by folks who know their shit, the win probability is set by nerds who do not.This weekend we rock Portland0 -
mrussel1 said:cutz said:mrussel1 said:From an economic perspective, the super conferences make perfect sense. Think about the tv deal the Big Ten struck now that they have the NY, DC and LA markets.
I definitely think the seedings will be tweaked. It wasn't just the byes that didn't make sense, but Oregon drawing OSU for their first game was bad setup too. Although the Rose Bowl loved it. I passionately think that if the NCAA is committed to rewarding teh conference championships (which they are), then you have to seed like the basketball tournament. Winning your conference gets you in, but then you seed based on perceived strength of the team.
But, what about Reseeding?
edit - what do you mean by seeding by SOS? Are you saying that if Georgia had a stronger SOS than Oregon, they would be seeded higher even if Oregon was 12-0 and UGA 10-2?0 -
Poncier said:The win probability thing is based on FPI or whatever from regular season, doesn't take into account injuries and players not playing in bowl games for whatever reason.
If I recall the Syracuse/WSU game had the spread at SYR -17 (ended up at 18) and WSU a 51% FPI chance to win. Make sense out of that. The point spread is set by folks who know their shit, the win probability is set by nerds who do not.
in other words, “win probability” is a total waste of time. I did realize that point spread is all about setting the sweet spot for taking the degenerate’s money, regardless of which side they’re on.If I had known then what I know now...
Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
VIC 07
EV LA1 08
Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
Columbus 10
EV LA 11
Vancouver 11
Missoula 12
Portland 13, Spokane 13
St. Paul 14, Denver 14Philly I & II, 16Denver 220 -
cutz said:mrussel1 said:cutz said:mrussel1 said:From an economic perspective, the super conferences make perfect sense. Think about the tv deal the Big Ten struck now that they have the NY, DC and LA markets.
I definitely think the seedings will be tweaked. It wasn't just the byes that didn't make sense, but Oregon drawing OSU for their first game was bad setup too. Although the Rose Bowl loved it. I passionately think that if the NCAA is committed to rewarding teh conference championships (which they are), then you have to seed like the basketball tournament. Winning your conference gets you in, but then you seed based on perceived strength of the team.
But, what about Reseeding?
edit - what do you mean by seeding by SOS? Are you saying that if Georgia had a stronger SOS than Oregon, they would be seeded higher even if Oregon was 12-0 and UGA 10-2?During the Indiana game, Kurt and Fowler were saying that SOS wasn’t used well enough in the initial selection, implying Alabama should have been in instead of Indiana. But then Bama yaks against a undermanned Michigan team, Tennessee gets smoked and Georgia looks lost. So while I’m with you in seeding, need to be careful on the selection. There is no evidence that the best “at-large” teams weren’t picked.0 -
Wobbie said:Poncier said:The win probability thing is based on FPI or whatever from regular season, doesn't take into account injuries and players not playing in bowl games for whatever reason.
If I recall the Syracuse/WSU game had the spread at SYR -17 (ended up at 18) and WSU a 51% FPI chance to win. Make sense out of that. The point spread is set by folks who know their shit, the win probability is set by nerds who do not.
in other words, “win probability” is a total waste of time. I did realize that point spread is all about setting the sweet spot for taking the degenerate’s money, regardless of which side they’re on.0 -
Bowl Mania is over.
we’re left with the overhyped CFP.
nice to see Liberty get smacked down today.If I had known then what I know now...
Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
VIC 07
EV LA1 08
Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
Columbus 10
EV LA 11
Vancouver 11
Missoula 12
Portland 13, Spokane 13
St. Paul 14, Denver 14Philly I & II, 16Denver 220 -
mrussel1 said:cutz said:mrussel1 said:cutz said:mrussel1 said:From an economic perspective, the super conferences make perfect sense. Think about the tv deal the Big Ten struck now that they have the NY, DC and LA markets.
I definitely think the seedings will be tweaked. It wasn't just the byes that didn't make sense, but Oregon drawing OSU for their first game was bad setup too. Although the Rose Bowl loved it. I passionately think that if the NCAA is committed to rewarding teh conference championships (which they are), then you have to seed like the basketball tournament. Winning your conference gets you in, but then you seed based on perceived strength of the team.
But, what about Reseeding?
edit - what do you mean by seeding by SOS? Are you saying that if Georgia had a stronger SOS than Oregon, they would be seeded higher even if Oregon was 12-0 and UGA 10-2?During the Indiana game, Kurt and Fowler were saying that SOS wasn’t used well enough in the initial selection, implying Alabama should have been in instead of Indiana. But then Bama yaks against a undermanned Michigan team, Tennessee gets smoked and Georgia looks lost. So while I’m with you in seeding, need to be careful on the selection. There is no evidence that the best “at-large” teams weren’t picked.
Strength of schedule should probably have a lot of weight when selecting the teams for the playoffs.0 -
Great FCS game last night. Osweiler was 100% right when he questioned MSU’s decision to go on 4th down, right before the half. Cost them the natty.If I had known then what I know now...
Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
VIC 07
EV LA1 08
Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
Columbus 10
EV LA 11
Vancouver 11
Missoula 12
Portland 13, Spokane 13
St. Paul 14, Denver 14Philly I & II, 16Denver 220 -
Wobbie said:Great FCS game last night. Osweiler was 100% right when he questioned MSU’s decision to go on 4th down, right before the half. Cost them the natty.0
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pearldavidson said:Wobbie said:Great FCS game last night. Osweiler was 100% right when he questioned MSU’s decision to go on 4th down, right before the half. Cost them the natty.
This weekend we rock Portland0 -
we’re back to it tonight.
never thought I’d say it, but Go Irish.If I had known then what I know now...
Vegas 93, Vegas 98, Vegas 00 (10 year show), Vegas 03, Vegas 06
VIC 07
EV LA1 08
Seattle1 09, Seattle2 09, Salt Lake 09, LA4 09
Columbus 10
EV LA 11
Vancouver 11
Missoula 12
Portland 13, Spokane 13
St. Paul 14, Denver 14Philly I & II, 16Denver 220 -
ND 26 PSU 20
tOSU 41 UT 23This weekend we rock Portland0 -
mrussel1 said:Poncier said:ND 26 PSU 20
tOSU 41 UT 23
penalties. each need to keep those in check for a better chance. real hard to win giving away yards like that.
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mickeyrat said:mrussel1 said:Poncier said:ND 26 PSU 20
tOSU 41 UT 23
penalties. each need to keep those in check for a better chance. real hard to win giving away yards like that.0 -
I think Penn State wins this tonight. Am I confident in that? Not exactly.0
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