** KAMALA HARRIS FOR PRESIDENT -PART DEUX **

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  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,458
    still gotta vote of course



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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,597
    mickeyrat said:
    still gotta vote of course



    Definitely trending the right way...
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  • curmudgeoness
    curmudgeoness Brigadoon, foodie capital Posts: 4,130
    I don’t like how the polls look. I don’t like how any of this feels. It feels too much like 2016: a campaign in disarray, polls showing the Dem candidate comfortably ahead. Look how that turned out.
    Harris should be up by ten points across the board after that debate. Nothing moves the needle at this point.
    Frankly I’d like coverage of polls to go away. Last night, buried in/by the Eric Adams story, was a poll showing T—-p up by ten points in AZ. I’m of the opinion that AZ is chock full of crazy, but wtf??
    All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and shortest means to accomplish it.
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,262
    The Juggler said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    The Juggler said:
    mrussel1 said:
    cincybearcat said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Tim Simmons said:
    Anyway. Solid economic policy speech yesterday. The tax credits will go a long way for families to say nothing of it being the only reasonable (and non weird) way to help promote the American birth rate. 
    It's funny, I was driving home from DC last night and flipped to CNN on XM because I had already ingested 3 hours of Grateful Dead shows, so I need some reality.  Anyways, the right wing person said something to the effect of, "You know there are details there, but not enough.  She isn't telling us how she is going to build a coalition to pass these proposals, so it's just empty rhetoric".  

    What a bunch of crap and goal post movement.  As if Donald Trump has explained the coalition to make tips non-taxable or "be the protector of women" or whatever BS comes to him in the middle of a speech.  She has plenty of specific for a candidate, as much or more as anyone has.  It's not like candidates routinely tick off the crossover votes they will get and how to overcome a filibuster.  
    They are 100% correct, but also 100% Hypocrites for sure.

    The media should be pushing these candidates far more on the "How".
    But you know that's not a practical expectation.  No one knows what any coalition will look like after these elections.  Who controls the senate?  Will it be subject to cloture, and therefore not filibuster?  Will it be a D or R speaker so will a bill even hit the floor?  These are not answerable questions and frankly I would not want the media to spend time in that red tape.  
    I think in a more utopian society, we would have the media asking more of the "how" will things get done questions though.

    But that would entail a dramatic change in how the media covers politics. Now it's all about the horse race and the specifics of polices and how they will be implemented is barely covered. 

    Can you imagine anyone in Trump's base giving a shit about how the no tax on tips thing or the cutting their insurance thing would have any shot of actually happening? These are the same people who thought Mexico was going to pay for a border wall simply because Trump told them so. 


    I’d argue it would require a dramatic shift in how most ‘Muricans consume information and what they want to hear and see. Policy discussions of the details put most people to sleep and they only have attention spans capable of 140 characters or less. The media gives us what we want and what most seem to want is Faux rage and sound bites. The majority of voters aren’t interested nor capable of understanding the wonk and what it takes to make it happen.
    Yeah, agreed. So essentially this will never happen. 
    Two examples I distinctly remember where I was mesmerized by the discussion of policy and such were Clinton on PBS giving his last press conference and he was asked a question about the war in Bosnia and he proceeded to give 10 minutes of background before he said, “now I’ll answer your question.” It was amazing. The second time was Darth Cheney one on one with Charlie Rose, where each VP had the opportunity. While I so totally and thoroughly disagreed with his policies, he was rational, calm, believable and spoke in such a way that rather than shout at him and the television, I listened, knowing full well what he was “for.” Civil, heard him out, still voted against him but I understood where he was coming from and his “vision.”

    Long gone days.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,262
    curmudgeoness said:
    I don’t like how the polls look. I don’t like how any of this feels. It feels too much like 2016: a campaign in disarray, polls showing the Dem candidate comfortably ahead. Look how that turned out.
    Harris should be up by ten points across the board after that debate. Nothing moves the needle at this point.
    Frankly I’d like coverage of polls to go away. Last night, buried in/by the Eric Adams story, was a poll showing T—-p up by ten points in AZ. I’m of the opinion that AZ is chock full of crazy, but wtf??
    Prepare yourself. It’s going to be ugly.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,367
    $100,000 for a watch!!! I blame Kamala Harris for this inflation.
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • josevolution
    josevolution Posts: 31,642
    teskeinc said:
    New Kamala Buzzwords

    Holistically 
    Aspirations
    Ambitions


    In every speech now

    😂😂 like the orange idiot that you will vote for doesn’t use the same crap he sold you in 16 & 20! 
    We have a healthcare plan that we’re looking at very strongly, the nation will collapse if a democrat is elected, we will fall into a depression we will be in inflation on & on & on oh and the immigrants are poisoning this country! Anything else you need to add please do so ah I forgot this doozy “ I will protect women better than anyone else” his best yet 
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • Tim Simmons
    Tim Simmons Posts: 9,611
    huh

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/harris-would-not-enact-price-controls/
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,597
    Johnny Abruzzo said:
    $100,000 for a watch!!! I blame Kamala Harris for this inflation.
    I'm gonna not buy bacon for a million years to save up for this dumb watch
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  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,367
    The Juggler said:
    Johnny Abruzzo said:
    $100,000 for a watch!!! I blame Kamala Harris for this inflation.
    I'm gonna not buy bacon for a million years to save up for this dumb watch
    I love how these Dave McCormick commercials everyone's talking about how high the gas prices are, and you can plainly see they are the lowest since everyone was stuck in their houses.
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,597
    edited September 2024
    Kamala visiting the border....Mitch McConnell telling folks, again today, that trump killed the border bill. Lovely timing. 
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  • curmudgeoness
    curmudgeoness Brigadoon, foodie capital Posts: 4,130
    edited September 2024
    Johnny Abruzzo said:
    The Juggler said:
    Johnny Abruzzo said:
    $100,000 for a watch!!! I blame Kamala Harris for this inflation.
    I'm gonna not buy bacon for a million years to save up for this dumb watch
    I love how these Dave McCormick commercials everyone's talking about how high the gas prices are, and you can plainly see they are the lowest since everyone was stuck in their houses.

    T---p was out there the other day saying he's going to cut the cost of oil in half -- never mind that oil is something like $65/barrel and $32/barrel oil would be a sign of bad news in the same way that $1.25/gal gas was in April 2020.

    ETA: When we moved two years ago, gas in our new neighborhood was $4.20/gal. It's now $3.80/gal and has been well under $4 for the last year, at least.
    Post edited by curmudgeoness on
    All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and shortest means to accomplish it.
  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,367
    The Juggler said:
    Kamala visiting the border....Mitch McConnell telling folks, again today, that trump killed the border bill. Lovely timing. 
    Mitchy telling us that eliminating the filibuster would destroy our democracy!!! The guy who packed the Supreme Court. No, I'm not making nice with that fucker.
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,597
    Along with the Nebraska news and poll showing Kamala up big in that district --heck of a week



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  • JesseMcK
    JesseMcK Maine Posts: 67
    edited September 2024
    So do twitter people no longer think Nate Silver is the devil?

    I also get the feels of 2016 in this election, but sort of in reverse. I know this is highly dependent on where you live, but the amount of visible Trump support in my state has PLUMMETED. The yard signs, bumper stickers, flags etc., just aren't there like they were in 2016 and 2020, whereas the Kamala yard signs are out in a way I've never seen for a D. That was the vibe of 2016, the data said Clinton, but the vibes and enthusiasm were all Trump. Of course, this means nothing, just a feeling.

    There is still a really good chance that despite their best efforts, pollsters still haven't figured out how to get the Trump electorate. They did better in 2022, but he wasn't on the ballot. If you're inclined to believe the polls this time:

    In 2020 Trump got 46.8 nationally - 538 had him at 43.4 and RCP at 44.
    In 2016 Trump got 46.09 nationally - 538 had him at 41.1 and RCP had him at 43.6

    The guy is going to get to 46 - 47%, which is pretty much where the 2024 polling averages have him pegged.

    The question is can KH get up to 50%+ to overcome the disadvantage in the EC, which is more of a turnout question, I think, making the vibes relevant.
    Post edited by JesseMcK on
    https://www.jessemckinnell.com/
  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,367
    edited September 2024
    La Signora thinks there are fewer Trump signs around here (bluish purple Phila suburb) than 2020. I'm not sure - think there are about the same. Lots of Harris signs though! The local Dems can't keep them in stock.
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • Tim Simmons
    Tim Simmons Posts: 9,611
    I agree, the vibes have been different than the previous 2 presidential elections. It does feel closer to 16. Also anecdotally, I’ve noted way less Trump signage/flag age and those that did go big previous have massively downgraded. 

    People are tired and I think even among his supporters, the vibe isn’t as good as it used to be. We are approaching 10 years of him being a political quantity and in the news. Mentally, the public shifts after that long. People may choose new which feeds the vibe. 
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,597
    JesseMcK said:
    So do twitter people no longer think Nate Silver is the devil?

    I also get the feels of 2016 in this election, but sort of in reverse. I know this is highly dependent on where you live, but the amount of visible Trump support in my state has PLUMMETED. The yard signs, bumper stickers, flags etc., just aren't there like they were in 2016 and 2020, whereas the Kamala yard signs are out in a way I've never seen for a D. That was the vibe of 2016, the data said Clinton, but the vibes and enthusiasm were all Trump. Of course, this means nothing, just a feeling.

    There is still a really good chance that despite their best efforts, pollsters still haven't figured out how to get the Trump electorate. They did better in 2022, but he wasn't on the ballot. If you're inclined to believe the polls this time:

    In 2020 Trump got 46.8 nationally - 538 had him at 43.4 and RCP at 44.
    In 2016 Trump got 46.09 nationally - 538 had him at 41.1 and RCP had him at 43.6

    The guy is going to get to 46 - 47%, which is pretty much where the 2024 polling averages have him pegged.

    The question is can KH get up to 50%+ to overcome the disadvantage in the EC, which is more of a turnout question, I think, making the vibes relevant.
    I am noticing more Trump signs than Kamala in my area. Signs are just anecdotal though.

    Somuch has happened over the last few years, I don't know how much '16 and even '20 matter as much as people keep bringing them up.

    Dobbs is such an enormous factor. Also, Trump regularly underperformed during the primaries. 
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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,882
    JesseMcK said:
    So do twitter people no longer think Nate Silver is the devil?

    I also get the feels of 2016 in this election, but sort of in reverse. I know this is highly dependent on where you live, but the amount of visible Trump support in my state has PLUMMETED. The yard signs, bumper stickers, flags etc., just aren't there like they were in 2016 and 2020, whereas the Kamala yard signs are out in a way I've never seen for a D. That was the vibe of 2016, the data said Clinton, but the vibes and enthusiasm were all Trump. Of course, this means nothing, just a feeling.

    There is still a really good chance that despite their best efforts, pollsters still haven't figured out how to get the Trump electorate. They did better in 2022, but he wasn't on the ballot. If you're inclined to believe the polls this time:

    In 2020 Trump got 46.8 nationally - 538 had him at 43.4 and RCP at 44.
    In 2016 Trump got 46.09 nationally - 538 had him at 41.1 and RCP had him at 43.6

    The guy is going to get to 46 - 47%, which is pretty much where the 2024 polling averages have him pegged.

    The question is can KH get up to 50%+ to overcome the disadvantage in the EC, which is more of a turnout question, I think, making the vibes relevant.
    Yeah but what's going on with the boats and golf carts?  That's my very scientific method.  I also talk to a handful of people who I agree with all of the time, just to be sure.  And I don't know anyone voting for Kamala.  If Trump doesn't win 80% of the vote, it's rigged.  
  • curmudgeoness
    curmudgeoness Brigadoon, foodie capital Posts: 4,130
    JesseMcK said:
    So do twitter people no longer think Nate Silver is the devil?

    I also get the feels of 2016 in this election, but sort of in reverse. I know this is highly dependent on where you live, but the amount of visible Trump support in my state has PLUMMETED. The yard signs, bumper stickers, flags etc., just aren't there like they were in 2016 and 2020, whereas the Kamala yard signs are out in a way I've never seen for a D. That was the vibe of 2016, the data said Clinton, but the vibes and enthusiasm were all Trump. Of course, this means nothing, just a feeling.

    There is still a really good chance that despite their best efforts, pollsters still haven't figured out how to get the Trump electorate. They did better in 2022, but he wasn't on the ballot. If you're inclined to believe the polls this time:

    In 2020 Trump got 46.8 nationally - 538 had him at 43.4 and RCP at 44.
    In 2016 Trump got 46.09 nationally - 538 had him at 41.1 and RCP had him at 43.6

    The guy is going to get to 46 - 47%, which is pretty much where the 2024 polling averages have him pegged.

    The question is can KH get up to 50%+ to overcome the disadvantage in the EC, which is more of a turnout question, I think, making the vibes relevant.

    Yes, I agree with those who say that he has a hard floor and a hard ceiling. And I agree with you that Harris needs to get over the 50% mark.
    Dobbs is important; on the other hand, there already was a significant gender gap in 2016/2020 voting. My understanding is that that gap has widened as more white women have abandoned T---p. I hope it will be enough.
    All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and shortest means to accomplish it.
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