Official 2024 Ticket Lottery Results Thread

Lerxst1992 said:

know1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

SHZA said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

RE4790 said:

CurtisMartin said:

Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt.  Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing.  Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show.  It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.

This!

Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.

People are getting confused with lottery odds. If I have a ten percent chance to win a high demand show and win, I still have a ten percent chance of winning the next show.

but to win both, my odds are 1% (10%*10%)

We are seeing fans go four for four (ny and Balt one chance each, Philly two chances)

the odds of hitting all four assuming 10% odds are 10%*10%*10%*10% or 0.01%.

to see that happen multiple times is astounding. It’s possible but very very strange.

How do we know the chance was 10% at each show?

It’s a guess, 10% for simplicity. In the past when they released odds, NY was around five percent and the other NE cities around 20%.

Let’s say the odds were 20% for all NE shows except Boston. Sounds much better to win all four, right?

not really. Better, but still 

20%*20%*20%*20% = 0.2%

jimjam1982 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

SHZA said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

RE4790 said:

CurtisMartin said:

Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt.  Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing.  Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show.  It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.

This!

Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.

People are getting confused with lottery odds. If I have a ten percent chance to win a high demand show and win, I still have a ten percent chance of winning the next show.

but to win both, my odds are 1% (10%*10%)

We are seeing fans go four for four (ny and Balt one chance each, Philly two chances)

the odds of hitting all four assuming 10% odds are 10%*10%*10%*10% or 0.01%.

to see that happen multiple times is astounding. It’s possible but very very strange.

So many variables unaccounted for...you can't speculate math without knowing the numbers.

We don't know how many seats at each venue are available.
We don't know how many people requested for each show.
We don't know the breakdown on 1 seat request VS 2 seat request
We don't know who checked what boxes in seat selection.

If 10c felt like sharing some of this - I bet people would not have to wonder why they lost.

Vancouver for example, maybe it didn't even use all of the 10c tickets. So effectively if less seats are requested then seats available your odds are 100% not 10%.

Moving to Philly, check all possible seats my odds of winning the Philly show are the same as everyone else who checked all possible boxes AND also had a single request. However, my odds are higher then the guy who only checked GA/P1 and needs 2 seats because I am open to other seats and only need 1...Rows at stadiums tend to be odd numbers so there always end up a significant number of single seats available.
To evaluate properly the people losing regularly need to identify the boxes they checked, how many seats requested, and what shows.

I lost Philly N1 - I only selected GA/P1 for a Single seat - Not mad about losing, I expected to.

ComeToTX said:

At least people aren't bitching about ticket prices anymore!

NewfieintheUSA said:

jimjam1982 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

Each GA drawing is independent.  You have the same odds, as anyone else that put in a request, for each show's GA lottery.  The amount of tickets may be different, but you have the same odds to get selected for one/two as anyone else that requested.  Do we need to get the source code of the program and find out if there is not a random generation?  Do we believe that somehow a computer picked the same person's random selection confirmation number purposefully over and over for GA each show?  Come on folks.

If 4 independent events each have a 10% probability, the likelihood of all 4 events happening is 0.1^4. 

This is hypothetical.  All odds are not the same for every show.  So using this as a barometer for why someone didn't win is just going to make people upset.

If we don't know the exact odds we should just ignore the results and assume everything was kosher?

wnh1977 said:

Me:

• 5/18 Vegas (1 ticket Reserved P1) - YES
• 8/29 Chicago (2 tickets Reserved P1) - YES
• 8/31 Chicago (put in for GA/Reserved P1 & P1) - NO
• 9/7 Philly (1 ticket put in for GA/Reserved P1 & P1) - NO
• 9/9 Philly (1 ticket (put in for GA/Reserved P1 & P1) - NO

Wife:

• 8/29 Chicago (2 tickets Reserved P1) - YES
• 8/31 Chicago (put in for GA/Reserved P1 & P1) - NO

I thought Wrigley was going to be a "for sure".  What's capacity for a show there?  40,000?  We've been to every Wrigley show, so I guess I was just overconfident.  Bummer we both got Thursday and both missed Saturday.  Guess we'll each be snagging a friend to go with.

Not surprised that I missed out on Philly, but I thought only requesting 1 ticket would give me decent odds. 

Black73 said:

JosephK said:

Has anyone HERE gotten a confirmation today? Vs the friend of a friend who heard from someone else on Facebook? 

Yes, I got Chicago night 1 notification today

BloodMeridian80 said:

BF25394 said:

stones said:

LukinTimer said:

Okay, so quick question.... this applies only to cities with two shows in the US... is there anyone who put in for both nights, but only got GA for one night? 

Just curious. 

Yes, for Seattle.  GA night 1, P1 night 2.

Just pointing out, for the people who are convinced that everyone either got GA both nights or shut out both nights for cities with multiple shows, that here's a person who had divergent results for each night.

Did someone get a GA for a N2 show that didn't get GA for an N1 show? Have we seen an example of that?

BF25394 said:

steven87 said:

Finally getting around to posting my results:

Vancouver N1 and N2- P1 reserved
MSG N1- nothing
MSG N2- P2 reserved
Philly N1- P1 reserved
Philly N2- GA
Baltimore- P1 reserved

Feel very fortunate to have scored my first GA ever in a 10c lottery (in about 50 attempts). Now on to F2F to try to upgrade the rest!

Here's another person who had a split GA/P1 result in a city.