Official 2024 Ticket Lottery Results Thread

CarryTheZero

Couldn’t make it anywhere except Philly. That one seems to be high demand, and so far did not get a pull for either show. Being from the southeast, couldn’t fly or take work time to the west coast. Europe is too expensive for me to fly (already have a school trip booked to Rome in December). 

🤞 for the South next year. And for luck in the lottery!

Goldy

If there is anything I take away from the lottery threads it is that many Pearl Jam fans have truly awful reading comprehension and like to complain about anything. 

Choska

 https://www.reddit.com/r/pearljam/s/EV0IAqxjcC

Sums it up. 

PJ and Dylan are my muse

NewfieintheUSA said:

PJNB said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

scurtis said:

My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.

It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many. 

100%. All or nothing. 

No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.

Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.

When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen. 

Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.

Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.

I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen. 

Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much. 

Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more. 

400/5000 

8% chance at getting GA for night 1. 

Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 = 

0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA. 

But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.

Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again. 

750/5000= 0.15 

So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds. 


I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for. 

Want to do the math on that?

Pretty fking low

Not insane at all.  Each drawing is independent.  It's about a 1/10 shot for each.  It can happen very easily.

darwinstheory

Goldy said:

If there is anything I take away from the lottery threads it is that many Pearl Jam fans have truly awful reading comprehension and like to complain about anything. 

This reads to me like a complaint.

Go Beavers

BF25394 said:

CurtisMartin said:

Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt.  Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing.  Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.

Statistics actually show the opposite: some people will get all of their requests and some will get none in a random distribution.

I rolled the dice six times and didn’t land a 12. These dice are rigged. 

NewfieintheUSA

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

PJNB said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

scurtis said:

My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.

It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many. 

100%. All or nothing. 

No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.

Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.

When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen. 

Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.

Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.

I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen. 

Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much. 

Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more. 

400/5000 

8% chance at getting GA for night 1. 

Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 = 

0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA. 

But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.

Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again. 

750/5000= 0.15 

So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds. 


I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for. 

Want to do the math on that?

Pretty fking low

Not insane at all.  Each drawing is independent.  It's about a 1/10 shot for each.  It can happen very easily.

GA for an individual show was 10% odds? You really think that high?

PJ and Dylan are my muse

RE4790 said:

CurtisMartin said:

Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt.  Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing.  Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show.  It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.

This!

Gibson

CM189191 said:

Gibson said:

I'm sorry for all the folks that didn't get their hometown requests fulfilled. Please kindly remember that an overwhelming number of Pearl Jam fans don't live in major cities, meaning they will never have the luxury of a hometown show. Thus, every show is going to have out of towners that deserve to be there as much as the locals.

83% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas

Does Pearl Jam play all of those urban areas?

DP13

Kwieneke said:

I know its not over but I still can't believe a 10c member could get snubbed from Wrigley

0-3, wrigley, wrigley, philly 2

BE257117

I went 1/3, missing on Vegas N2 and Wrigley N2 but landing Wrigley N1. Hoping that we see a few more confirmations today, otherwise I'll see you all on F2F!

SHZA

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

BF25394 said:

Vedder4Prez said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Vedder4Prez said:

NickTender said:

Vedd Hedd said:

Keep checking with your credit card companies to see if they declined the transactions.  Don't wait for Ticketmaster to tell you.  

10C was extremely helpful last tour, and they have been this tour too, trying to get tickets in the hands of people who lost out due to strange issues.  If you were drawn, but your Credit Card declined the transaction, you may not even know it.  If you find out that your card declined, contact 10C at tickets@tenclub.net and also TM at tenclubsupport@ticketmaster.com

This is what I am paranoid about, but I see no indications/alerts that a charge was denied. How does one know? 

I called Chase and asked if any charges were attempted that were denied. They said yes 2 at $380ish. I asked why I wasn't told. They said sorry not sure why you weren't told by Chase. 

Chase told you they weren't sure why they didn't tell you?

Nope.. They removed it and all good to go. Didn't help being a federal holiday I feel like. but I'm .1% who got screwed so oh well 

Had you given your bank a heads-up that there might be charges as the ticketing instructions suggested?

Dude the bank literally doesn't care. You can tell them, but they don't and can't do anything with that info 

I called my bank and gave them a heads-up. They noted it on my account, and then they did not blink at over $2,200 in charges on my card. This is from someone who rarely charges more than $500 in a month.

That's only one data point. Means nothing. Most banks use a fraud algorithm that can't be manually bypassed 

Lerxst1992

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

RE4790 said:

CurtisMartin said:

Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt.  Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing.  Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show.  It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.

This!

No, not this. Read how odds work for winning multiple draws, such as picking six numbers in the lottery. It’s absolutely not one in fifty, if there are fifty numbers in the lottery. If picking six numbers in six random draws, we would all be millionaires.


 The chance of winning each draw is multiplied. If someone goes four for four in shows and each is ten percent, chances of winning all four is 10%*10%*10%*10%.
…


(The chance of winning can be demonstrated as follows: The first number drawn has a 1 in 49 chance of matching. When the draw comes to the second number, there are now only 48 balls left in the bag, because the balls are drawn without replacement. So there is now a 1 in 48 chance of predicting this number.

Thus for each of the 49 ways of choosing the first number there are 48 different ways of choosing the second. This means that the probability of correctly predicting 2 numbers drawn from 49 in the correct order is calculated as 1 in 49 × 48. )

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics

 

syzygy523

Choska said:

 https://www.reddit.com/r/pearljam/s/EV0IAqxjcC

Sums it up. 

Ok, this made me laugh.

I was thinking about this yesterday - if you do get drawn in the lottery, then no complaints. But if not, in 2024, you're basically paying $35/yr to be able to download a $10 bootleg

But hey - that's luck of the draw! Cross your fingers and hope for the best! It's what we all signed up for! We know this going in!!

PJ and Dylan are my muse

NewfieintheUSA said:

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

PJNB said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

BF25394 said:

tylermoore said:

scurtis said:

My bro in law and wives were trying to do Vegas but he got his email at like 10:30am this morning for both shows. I haven’t gotten a postive or a negative. But I’m not holding my breath.

It’s like they awarded to the individual, and whatever shows they selected, versus awarding for shows to many. 

100%. All or nothing. 

No, it's not. There are plenty of examples of people here who got some of the tickets they requested, but not all of them.

Some people got everything they requested. Some people got some of what they requested. Some people got none of what they requested. This is exactly what you would expect from a random drawing.

When there’s patterns it doesn’t seem like random. That’s all I’m saying. Too many people got both nights in a high demand city, while too many people got nothing. You have to admit that’s a fishy coincidence. Either way, you can’t argue this is a better system to get rid of the priority option. It allows for this to happen. 

Humans tend to see patterns even in randomness. I think you're glossing over all of the people who have posted in this thread who have said that they got some of what they requested, but not all of what they requested. There's no fishy coincidence. There is a random distribution of outcomes.

Whether this system is better or worse is a separate topic that I was not opining on. I suspect that each system has its pluses and minuses.

I dont care how many times you do the lotto no one should ever win GA for for both Philly's and both Fenways on one account. The odds are insane for that to happen. 

Lets say there are 400 winners for GA for Philly. 800 person pit. Sure there are singles out there but lets ignore that as it really does not change things too much. 

Lets actually say only 5000 people put in for Philly GA/Res combo. I bet there were more. 

400/5000 

8% chance at getting GA for night 1. 

Now the odds of hitting night 2 as well with those same above numbers. 0.08 x 0.08 = 

0.64% chance at hitting night 1 and night 2 GA. 

But wait there is more they also hit both Fenways. I think the Fenway pit is larger than Phillies but not sure by how much.

Lets say its 1500 so 750 wins since they are pairs. Lets keep 5000 as the total for how many people put in again. 

750/5000= 0.15 

So that gives us 0.08 x 0.08 x 0.15 x 0.15= 0.000144 or 0.0144% odds. 


I was just talking with a friend and guess how many GA they got on one account. 9 pair out of 11 shows they put in for. 

Want to do the math on that?

Pretty fking low

Not insane at all.  Each drawing is independent.  It's about a 1/10 shot for each.  It can happen very easily.

GA for an individual show was 10% odds? You really think that high?

Honestly, who knows.  But every drawing is independent.  No matter how many in the pool for each, the same person, conceivably, could get the GA "life preserver" EVERY SINGLE TIME.  Meanwhile the 12 show, any ticket person, could get missed EVERY SINGLE TIME.

There will be plenty of opportunities to get, a ticket, to a show.  Maybe not MSG, Philly, Chi or LV, but if you really want to go, you will find a ticket to a venue and go.  Hell, I have turned down shows because of where they are playing, the shows are getting shorter and the prices higher.  There will not be a perfect system, but with TM waiting rooms, bots, scalpers, etc.; this is a pretty good system.  The only thing that maybe could be done to better it is an address radius gets some sort of priority for that show (50 miles of Fenway) for example.  The priority system was trash to me, others think differently.

Best of luck to all that want to go somewhere and get in the building.

Kwieneke

SHZA said:

BF25394 said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

BF25394 said:

Vedder4Prez said:

NewfieintheUSA said:

Vedder4Prez said:

NickTender said:

Vedd Hedd said:

Keep checking with your credit card companies to see if they declined the transactions.  Don't wait for Ticketmaster to tell you.  

10C was extremely helpful last tour, and they have been this tour too, trying to get tickets in the hands of people who lost out due to strange issues.  If you were drawn, but your Credit Card declined the transaction, you may not even know it.  If you find out that your card declined, contact 10C at tickets@tenclub.net and also TM at tenclubsupport@ticketmaster.com

This is what I am paranoid about, but I see no indications/alerts that a charge was denied. How does one know? 

I called Chase and asked if any charges were attempted that were denied. They said yes 2 at $380ish. I asked why I wasn't told. They said sorry not sure why you weren't told by Chase. 

Chase told you they weren't sure why they didn't tell you?

Nope.. They removed it and all good to go. Didn't help being a federal holiday I feel like. but I'm .1% who got screwed so oh well 

Had you given your bank a heads-up that there might be charges as the ticketing instructions suggested?

Dude the bank literally doesn't care. You can tell them, but they don't and can't do anything with that info 

I called my bank and gave them a heads-up. They noted it on my account, and then they did not blink at over $2,200 in charges on my card. This is from someone who rarely charges more than $500 in a month.

That's only one data point. Means nothing. Most banks use a fraud algorithm that can't be manually bypassed 

no matter how many times i told my bank to let me buy Indy tickets last year, it got blocked literally every time 

jwhjr17

RE4790 said:

CurtisMartin said:

Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt.  Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing.  Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show.  It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.

Sums it up nicely I'd say to all of the naysayers

steven87

BF25394 said:

steven87 said:

Finally getting around to posting my results:

Vancouver N1 and N2- P1 reserved
MSG N1- nothing
MSG N2- P2 reserved
Philly N1- P1 reserved
Philly N2- GA
Baltimore- P1 reserved

Feel very fortunate to have scored my first GA ever in a 10c lottery (in about 50 attempts). Now on to F2F to try to upgrade the rest!

Here's another person who had a split GA/P1 result in a city.

Sorry I should’ve been more specific here and inadvertently created some confusion by combining the results from mine and my wife’s accounts. 

My account:
Vancouver N1 and N2- P1 reserved
MSG N1- nothing
MSG N2- P2 reserved
Philly N1 and N2- P1 reserved
Baltimore- P1 reserved

Wife’s account
MSG N1- nothing
MSG N2- nothing
Philly N2- GA

My wife only put in for Philly N2, not N1. I guess in retrospect she should’ve also put in for N1 cause it sounds like she probably would’ve won GA for that as well. Based on what I’ve seen on here and FB, it seems like a lot of people got the same result for both nights of a two-night stand- i.e., P1 or GA. If I had to venture a guess, it sounds like what may have happened here is that the lottery may have been run for each city, as opposed to each individual show. But ultimately who knows. 

SHZA

PJ and Dylan are my muse said:

RE4790 said:

CurtisMartin said:

Correct, the system is very flawed or corrupt.  Simple statistics show multiple people shouldn't be winning 8 shows and others getting nothing.  Time to stop wasting money on the ten club if this is how things are being handled.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamblersfallacy.asp

If every requester has exactly the same chance as every other requester at every show requested this absolutely could happen as winning a show has zero effect on winning any other show.  It's even possible the same 10 clubber could have been drawn as the first for every single show.

This!

Everyone knows it's possible. But if the odds of it happening are 1 in 10 million, yet the actual results are 1 in 100, something is wrong.

SHZA

mpedone said:

Any low-numbered members who really believe that higher numbers are secretly given preference are free to cancel your memberships and sign up for new ones with much higher numbers and test your hypothesis.

Or keep your account and have a "friend" enter on a new one