#46 President Joe Biden

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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,313
    edited October 2023
    I think your declared major should play into the risk profile ;)
    Honestly that's not predictive of loan performance.  The single factor that is most predictive long term is graduation status.  It's intuitive.  People who graduate value the loan, have something to show and by and large are more gainfully employed.  Those who drop out have a high delinquency rate. 
    Post edited by mrussel1 on
  • cincybearcatcincybearcat Posts: 16,616
    mrussel1 said:
    Honestly that's not predictive of loan performance.  The single factor that is most predictive long term is graduation status.  It's intuitive.  People who graduate value the loan, have something to show and by and large are more gainfully employed.  Those who drop out have a high delinquency rate. 
    Graduating doesn't mean being able to pay off the loan. I bet they have all the data they need to apply the correct risk profile by major.  And if you have to provide your grades each semester...they could adjust as you go.  You could earn a lower rate as you show you will graduate.

    But my real response to your statement is...duh. :) no kidding 
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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,313
    Graduating doesn't mean being able to pay off the loan. I bet they have all the data they need to apply the correct risk profile by major.  And if you have to provide your grades each semester...they could adjust as you go.  You could earn a lower rate as you show you will graduate.

    But my real response to your statement is...duh. :) no kidding 
    I'm telling you this because I'm deeply familiar with bad rate modeling performance for student loans. Majors do not matter.  Trade school vs university does. Graduation status does.  But actual major has no material difference in delinquency or default.  It may be counterintuitive,  but I have 15+ years of data that we've analyzed. 

    This is non-subsidized.
  • cincybearcatcincybearcat Posts: 16,616
    mrussel1 said:
    I'm telling you this because I'm deeply familiar with bad rate modeling performance for student loans. Majors do not matter.  Trade school vs university does. Graduation status does.  But actual major has no material difference in delinquency or default.  It may be counterintuitive,  but I have 15+ years of data that we've analyzed. 

    This is non-subsidized.
    Any data on who pays it off? I bet you can’t know.

    I find that amazing. So someone with an art history major vs say engineering and there is no difference on ability to pay? It’s hard to believe.  Unless art history major is subsidized by parents 
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  • mace1229mace1229 Posts: 9,583
    edited October 2023
    first year of college for $300? 

    so you want people to waste time in a 2 or 4 year college for a degree they have no interest in, just so they can get a low paying job so eventually they can afford to go to university? and start a family at what, 45 years old? that means the system is broken. 
    Why is attending a 2 year school a waste of time?
    Go for 2 years, transfer to a 4 year. Transfer to say Clemson University and your degree is exactly the same as every other kid who went there for all 4 years. But you paid half price. That’s not a waste of time.
    Literally just getting all your GE classes out of the way will save you tons.
    Post edited by mace1229 on
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 42,426
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  • mace1229mace1229 Posts: 9,583
    mrussel1 said:
    What's a "unit"?


    A semester credit, or unit, same thing.
  • mace1229mace1229 Posts: 9,583
    edited October 2023
    mrussel1 said:
    I wish that were true.  My son's off campus bills are brutal.  Plus you have to take 12 month leases.
    The 12 month is the only catch. But even then, when I did it, you split a 2 bedroom apartment 4 ways, costs like $400 in rent. Most meals involve chicken and rice, Mac n cheese or cereal, Maybe not a huge saver, but seemed like it was cheaper. And you get an apartment, not a 10x10 room and a community shower.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,313
    Any data on who pays it off? I bet you can’t know.

    I find that amazing. So someone with an art history major vs say engineering and there is no difference on ability to pay? It’s hard to believe.  Unless art history major is subsidized by parents 
    As far as who is making the payments?  No, we dont' look at that.  It's irrelevant.  But if you really wanted to know, you could know.  Every check that is written, every ACH received is scanned and tracked for these companies.   

    A good chunk of private student loans have co-signers/guarantors.  That's also a predictor, but I left that part out because they are fundamentally part of the loan.  So yes, certainly the guarantor could be making payments on the art history account. 

    You have to understand that in order to analyze it properly, you have to have a statistically significant number of borrowers into these different majors for a particular vintage.  So you don't have that for a number of majors that have few people.  It's easy to compare engineers to nurses to business majors.  It's a little more difficult to throw in music theory and such.  But when you do what I do, I can't just assume certain outcomes without supporting data.  
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,313
    mace1229 said:
    The 12 month is the only catch. But even then, when I did it, you split a 2 bedroom apartment 4 ways, costs like $400 in rent. Most meals involve chicken and rice, Mac n cheese or cereal, Maybe not a huge saver, but seemed like it was cheaper. And you get an apartment, not a 10x10 room and a community shower.
    Most student housing at large universities is different now.  You have your own lease that you sign.  It comes with everything but electricity but the bill is split automatically by the leasing company.  It's definitely more expensive than the old days, but I like not having to sign a lease for everyone.  In case you are wondering, my son lives in a 5 bedroom and it's $800 per month.  It is not cheap.  They could have gone cheaper, but all of his friends suck (so does he) and they got a nice place.  
  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,825
    mrussel1 said:
    Most student housing at large universities is different now.  You have your own lease that you sign.  It comes with everything but electricity but the bill is split automatically by the leasing company.  It's definitely more expensive than the old days, but I like not having to sign a lease for everyone.  In case you are wondering, my son lives in a 5 bedroom and it's $800 per month.  It is not cheap.  They could have gone cheaper, but all of his friends suck (so does he) and they got a nice place.  

    Sorry to butt in but I'm just curious- is that $800 per person or $800 for the whole place?  One incredibly inexpensive, the other seems rather high if $800 x 5.
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  • cincybearcatcincybearcat Posts: 16,616
    mrussel1 said:
    As far as who is making the payments?  No, we dont' look at that.  It's irrelevant.  But if you really wanted to know, you could know.  Every check that is written, every ACH received is scanned and tracked for these companies.   

    A good chunk of private student loans have co-signers/guarantors.  That's also a predictor, but I left that part out because they are fundamentally part of the loan.  So yes, certainly the guarantor could be making payments on the art history account. 

    You have to understand that in order to analyze it properly, you have to have a statistically significant number of borrowers into these different majors for a particular vintage.  So you don't have that for a number of majors that have few people.  It's easy to compare engineers to nurses to business majors.  It's a little more difficult to throw in music theory and such.  But when you do what I do, I can't just assume certain outcomes without supporting data.  
    Yup. Makes sense.
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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,313
    edited October 2023
    brianlux said:

    Sorry to butt in but I'm just curious- is that $800 per person or $800 for the whole place?  One incredibly inexpensive, the other seems rather high if $800 x 5.
    Per person.  And yes,  it's incredibly expensive but less than what I paid for my oldest daughter for her apartment at William and Mary..  But that's why God created 529s.
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 38,345
    mace1229 said:
    Why is attending a 2 year school a waste of time?
    Go for 2 years, transfer to a 4 year. Transfer to say Clemson University and your degree is exactly the same as every other kid who went there for all 4 years. But you paid half price. That’s not a waste of time.
    Literally just getting all your GE classes out of the way will save you tons.
    I thought you were saying go to a community college for something unrelated to your chosen career. 
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  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 42,426
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  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,825
    mrussel1 said:
    Per person.  And yes,  it's incredibly expensive but less than what I paid for my oldest daughter for her apartment at William and Mary..  But that's why God created 529s.

    Wow!  And I thought prices were high where I live. 
    It's tough as hell on kids today.  In my college years, people like myself and some of my friends could take classes, work at minimum wage jobs, afford tickets to venues like Fillmore West and Winterland, and live in a decent place in San Francisco.  I really feel for these kids.
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  • mace1229mace1229 Posts: 9,583
    mrussel1 said:
    All true,  but still not part of the Biden program.  I would likely argue that the rates,  by and large,  are not predatory.  Particularity the ones from Discover,  SoFi, Citi, etc. Since they are not subsidized,, they have to match the risk profile.  And they are not a public service,  they are for profit.  So they should be several points higher than subsidized. 
    I would be for lower rates for federal student loans. We don't need to make money off it. I'm for helping people do better.
    I guess a better way to say I'm against the forgiveness is mostly 2 reasons. There's no such thing as free money. It's not like China is paying it off for us. If that were the case, I'd be happy for everyone who got it. There's no such thing as free money, just taking it from someone else.

    And second, there needs to be an obligation to minimize the cost by the consumer. I've already talked about some. How many kids don't even consider a cheaper school and transferring? Most don't even consider that option. College has become known as a 2 year party and then get serious for the last 2. Kids go off to college, party for 2 years and "find themselves" and are already 40k in debt before they even get serious about school. And it's not uncommon to misuse student loans. I mean, many of them just put money into the account of an 18 year old. Many schools already subsidize tuition based on income. We need to change the culture about how we look at school.
    As a teacher I was instructed to not encourage or talk about community school to students. The reason was because the school wanted a higher 4-year university acceptance and attendance rate to publish. Schools will usually post how many of their students got accepted to and attended a 4 year school, if kids are going off to a 2 year school to get their GE credits out of the way first, the school can't brag on them. It made me mad.
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,565
    edited October 2023
    Were the same people complaining about this complaining about "free money" when Trump got his $2 trillion dollar tax cut for the rich through a few years ago?

    Remember how that was going to pay for itself and jolt the economy and gdp was going to rise and rise? 

    Didn't happen. It was completely worthless and, of course, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more costly than this student loan thing. 
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  • Merkin BallerMerkin Baller Posts: 12,036
    Were the same people complaining about this complaining about "free money" when Trump got his $2 trillion dollar tax cut for the rich through a few years ago?

    Remember how that was going to pay for itself and jolt the economy and gdp was going to rise and rise? 

    Didn't happen. It was completely worthless and, of course, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more costly than this student loan thing. 

  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,313
    mace1229 said:
    I would be for lower rates for federal student loans. We don't need to make money off it. I'm for helping people do better.
    I guess a better way to say I'm against the forgiveness is mostly 2 reasons. There's no such thing as free money. It's not like China is paying it off for us. If that were the case, I'd be happy for everyone who got it. There's no such thing as free money, just taking it from someone else.

    And second, there needs to be an obligation to minimize the cost by the consumer. I've already talked about some. How many kids don't even consider a cheaper school and transferring? Most don't even consider that option. College has become known as a 2 year party and then get serious for the last 2. Kids go off to college, party for 2 years and "find themselves" and are already 40k in debt before they even get serious about school. And it's not uncommon to misuse student loans. I mean, many of them just put money into the account of an 18 year old. Many schools already subsidize tuition based on income. We need to change the culture about how we look at school.
    As a teacher I was instructed to not encourage or talk about community school to students. The reason was because the school wanted a higher 4-year university acceptance and attendance rate to publish. Schools will usually post how many of their students got accepted to and attended a 4 year school, if kids are going off to a 2 year school to get their GE credits out of the way first, the school can't brag on them. It made me mad.
    Kids aren't the problem,  it's parents.  I didn't expect my child to understand everything you put forth.  That was my job.  And I told my kids "no private or out of state public unless you're on scholarship".  That was the college rule.  But I know plenty of parents who have let their kids choose private schools that I know they can't afford. People who know better 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,313
    brianlux said:

    Wow!  And I thought prices were high where I live. 
    It's tough as hell on kids today.  In my college years, people like myself and some of my friends could take classes, work at minimum wage jobs, afford tickets to venues like Fillmore West and Winterland, and live in a decent place in San Francisco.  I really feel for these kids.
    That's how I did college.  I was a restaurant manager,  worked 40-50 per week and then took 3-4 classes all year.  Never lived on campus.  It was hard though and I didn't really want my kids to do that too. 

    BTW, I think you're the lucky one.  I was in Dana Point this past weekend and told my wife that if I could go back to any part of American history,  it would be California,  late 60s. I would have loved to have been in the Canyon or up by you during that time.  Just something about the California scene ..
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 38,345
    mrussel1 said:
    That's how I did college.  I was a restaurant manager,  worked 40-50 per week and then took 3-4 classes all year.  Never lived on campus.  It was hard though and I didn't really want my kids to do that too. 

    BTW, I think you're the lucky one.  I was in Dana Point this past weekend and told my wife that if I could go back to any part of American history,  it would be California,  late 60s. I would have loved to have been in the Canyon or up by you during that time.  Just something about the California scene ..
    i said the exact same thing to my wife last week when she was watching Daisy and The Six. 
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  • mace1229mace1229 Posts: 9,583
    edited October 2023
    mrussel1 said:
    Kids aren't the problem,  it's parents.  I didn't expect my child to understand everything you put forth.  That was my job.  And I told my kids "no private or out of state public unless you're on scholarship".  That was the college rule.  But I know plenty of parents who have let their kids choose private schools that I know they can't afford. People who know better 
    You're right, especially about private/out of state vs public. USC is something like 60k for tuition, while UCLA in-state is like 15k. It's crazy what the difference is. That's what I meant about taking som obligation on reducing your own costs, if you can't afford it, don't go to USC. I can't really feel bad for those who picked a school that costs 80k a year. And parents should be playing a big role in that decision to help their kids too.
  • Were the same people complaining about this complaining about "free money" when Trump got his $2 trillion dollar tax cut for the rich through a few years ago?

    Remember how that was going to pay for itself and jolt the economy and gdp was going to rise and rise? 

    Didn't happen. It was completely worthless and, of course, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more costly than this student loan thing. 
    6% GDP growth rate, quarter over quarter, for ten fucking years, and it would pay for itself. And where is Steve Munchkin today? Or Betsy DeVoid. Good lord. But let’s go Brandon, right?
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  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 21,409
    mace1229 said:
    You're right, especially about private/out of state vs public. USC is something like 60k for tuition, while UCLA in-state is like 15k. It's crazy what the difference is. That's what I meant about taking som obligation on reducing your own costs, if you can't afford it, don't go to USC. I can't really feel bad for those who picked a school that costs 80k a year. And parents should be playing a big role in that decision to help their kids too.
    As our kids got older and started thinking about college I could not fucking believe the people that took their kids out of state.

    For some reason U of Alabama is really popular for central IN kids. Why in the name of god would you pay out of state tuition? I know that some kids likely got some scholarship but there is no way that they paid less to AL than they would to IU, Purdue, Ball State, IN State, etc.

    And the families that I remember were not wealthy at all. Upper middle class maybe. Just the thought of driving my kid to a school 10 hours away would drive me insane.
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  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,565
    edited October 2023

    Two TRILLION dollars vs 127 billion dollars. Is it just the money that's the issue here? lol
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  • Two TRILLION dollars vs 127 billion dollars. Is it just the money that's the issue here? lol
    It’s about “the other” getting something they didn’t get and deserved more because they’re the “real” ‘Muricans. In a nut shell.
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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,313
    As our kids got older and started thinking about college I could not fucking believe the people that took their kids out of state.

    For some reason U of Alabama is really popular for central IN kids. Why in the name of god would you pay out of state tuition? I know that some kids likely got some scholarship but there is no way that they paid less to AL than they would to IU, Purdue, Ball State, IN State, etc.

    And the families that I remember were not wealthy at all. Upper middle class maybe. Just the thought of driving my kid to a school 10 hours away would drive me insane.
    Here it's NC State.  I'm not sure why but a lot of kids go there.  It's stupid.  We have UVA, William and Mary,  James Madison,  V Tech, and more excellent public universities.  

    The family across the street is single income,  4 kids.  Three in college at the same time.  Oldest went to UVA (great call). Second started at UGA for no apparent reason,  but transferred in state wisely.  The third is my son's age.  He went Richmond which is private and 60k per year.  His parents both went there.  But 60k per year and he's going to be a teacher.  God bless him for being a teacher,  that's awesome.  But he didn't need to go to UR for that.  
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,565
    It’s about “the other” getting something they didn’t get and deserved more because they’re the “real” ‘Muricans. In a nut shell.
    I know. My post was meant to be rhetorical. 
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  • I know. My post was meant to be rhetorical. 
    It needs to be pointed out or stated. While we’re at it, why should I work and pay into social security so some high school dropout bum who never earned above minimum wage can collect social security and Medicare?
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