Nate Silver 538

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states. 

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism. 

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does.  Lerx has it right.  I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA.  The demos are changing.  

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states. 

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism. 

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does.  Lerx has it right.  I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA.  The demos are changing.  

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years?  There won't be "blue" by then.

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states. 

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism. 

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does.  Lerx has it right.  I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA.  The demos are changing.  

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

OnWis97 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states. 

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism. 

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does.  Lerx has it right.  I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA.  The demos are changing.  

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years?  There won't be "blue" by then.

Is this schtick for for you? Are you this nervous/negative in real life? lol Sorry I just can't tell if you are serious or not...

I believe this with all my heart. I have read some on authoritarian states and that's the way we're going. You don't need a majority to want it.  You don't need the supporters of the despot to believe it's what they want. Bit by bit it happens and the people are dragged every step of the way. 

That all said, I do vent here sometimes because I know how it would impact people in my real life if I constantly acted like this.  So I do some "anonymous" venting, if you will.  But do I believe one-party authoritarianism is on the table? Absolutely.

OnWis97 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states. 

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism. 

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does.  Lerx has it right.  I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA.  The demos are changing.  

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years?  There won't be "blue" by then.

Is this schtick for for you? Are you this nervous/negative in real life? lol Sorry I just can't tell if you are serious or not...

I believe this with all my heart. I have read some on authoritarian states and that's the way we're going. You don't need a majority to want it.  You don't need the supporters of the despot to believe it's what they want. Bit by bit it happens and the people are dragged every step of the way. 

That all said, I do vent here sometimes because I know how it would impact people in my real life if I constantly acted like this.  So I do some "anonymous" venting, if you will.  But do I believe one-party authoritarianism is on the table? Absolutely.

OnWis97 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

OnWis97 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states. 

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism. 

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does.  Lerx has it right.  I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA.  The demos are changing.  

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years?  There won't be "blue" by then.

Is this schtick for for you? Are you this nervous/negative in real life? lol Sorry I just can't tell if you are serious or not...

I believe this with all my heart. I have read some on authoritarian states and that's the way we're going. You don't need a majority to want it.  You don't need the supporters of the despot to believe it's what they want. Bit by bit it happens and the people are dragged every step of the way. 

That all said, I do vent here sometimes because I know how it would impact people in my real life if I constantly acted like this.  So I do some "anonymous" venting, if you will.  But do I believe one-party authoritarianism is on the table? Absolutely.

even if trump somehow wins, many of his supporters in the senate are in serious trouble in this election, far more republicans than democrats are in danger. that should tell you something. 

It tells me that the majority of American citizens are not on the Trump Train. They don't need a majority...

Also, with all the shenanigans (or, as we're calling it on other threads, "fuckery") going on, it's not just the president but some of the Senate seats that can change. Shock-Jock jackass Jason Lewis may benefit from the fuckery in Minnesota, for example.

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states. 

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism. 

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does.  Lerx has it right.  I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA.  The demos are changing.  

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

The last senate election was a glimpse of the future.  The sun belt in general is changing.

Absolutely, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just like 50/50 on it right now. Maybe 60/40 at best.

60/40 feels right, if it's even possible to put a % on how people vote.  But agreed. 

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states. 

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism. 

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does.  Lerx has it right.  I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA.  The demos are changing.  

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

The last senate election was a glimpse of the future.  The sun belt in general is changing.

Absolutely, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just like 50/50 on it right now. Maybe 60/40 at best.

60/40 feels right, if it's even possible to put a % on how people vote.  But agreed. 

Its not just AZ. How about TX? If my maths are correct, the state population went up 1.2 million since Clinton lost to trump, and all of that growth is in the 4 metro areas that are now solid blue (Hou, Dal, Aus, SA) and Ft Worth was 50/50 in the midterms.

Not only has the population gone up, but Hillary , a loser, outperformed Obama on a % basis in these locations. TX seems to be only a matter of time, and more of an eventuality than AZ. Hopefully this is the year. But AZ could be sooner ( but eventually more competitive, as TX could be a serious lean D state down the road if these cities continue to grow and become diverse).

It just seems like TX will go blue....I just can't imagine that tRump's turnout will be higher than 2016 and we know Biden's turnout will beat Clinton's.

MayDay10 said:

The 'problem' is the older population is dying, and the fundamentalist churchgoing population is decreasing.  Republicans have had a major need to rethink their message and platform.  I felt like the Romney election loss solidified the need and we may see a revision of the Republicans to join modern times.  They need younger voters.  Listen to conservative talk radio or watch foxnews.  So many commercials are geared toward old, gullible, and paranoid people.  THE DOLLAR IS CRASHING.  ILL TELL YOU HOW TO BUY GOLD.  PAY FOR MY BOOK IN 4 INSTALLMENTS OF $35 AND ILL TELL YOU HOW.

So instead of changing their message that the majority of the country rejects, they just triple down on their worst impulses and get in bed with Donald Trump.  They are almost incapable of winning a national election anymore in any conventional manner.  So instead of growing their base, they just made the diminishing base more angry.  They have used the flag as a shield, but pretend they honor it.  Same with Veterans.  Its a disgrace.

I guess their only hope is to basically fix the rules for voting, to make sure less people can vote.  Erode the separation of powers (they have absolutely packed the Federal Courts with political operatives who are completely unqualified).  We are at a huge crossroads here.  More importantly, a Biden administration would need to get cracking on Election Security, Campaign reform, Voter security, etc...