Nate Silver 538

OnWis97 · October 2020

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years? There won't be "blue" by then.

HughFreakingDillon · October 2020

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years? There won't be "blue" by then.

LMAO. your posts get all the more ridiculous every day.

The Juggler · October 2020

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years? There won't be "blue" by then.

Is this schtick for for you? Are you this nervous/negative in real life? lol Sorry I just can't tell if you are serious or not...

MayDay10 · October 2020

The 'problem' is the older population is dying, and the fundamentalist churchgoing population is decreasing. Republicans have had a major need to rethink their message and platform. I felt like the Romney election loss solidified the need and we may see a revision of the Republicans to join modern times. They need younger voters. Listen to conservative talk radio or watch foxnews. So many commercials are geared toward old, gullible, and paranoid people. THE DOLLAR IS CRASHING. ILL TELL YOU HOW TO BUY GOLD. PAY FOR MY BOOK IN 4 INSTALLMENTS OF $35 AND ILL TELL YOU HOW.

So instead of changing their message that the majority of the country rejects, they just triple down on their worst impulses and get in bed with Donald Trump. They are almost incapable of winning a national election anymore in any conventional manner. So instead of growing their base, they just made the diminishing base more angry. They have used the flag as a shield, but pretend they honor it. Same with Veterans. Its a disgrace.

I guess their only hope is to basically fix the rules for voting, to make sure less people can vote. Erode the separation of powers (they have absolutely packed the Federal Courts with political operatives who are completely unqualified). We are at a huge crossroads here. More importantly, a Biden administration would need to get cracking on Election Security, Campaign reform, Voter security, etc...

mrussel1 · October 2020

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

The last senate election was a glimpse of the future. The sun belt in general is changing.

OnWis97 · October 2020

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years? There won't be "blue" by then.

Is this schtick for for you? Are you this nervous/negative in real life? lol Sorry I just can't tell if you are serious or not...

I believe this with all my heart. I have read some on authoritarian states and that's the way we're going. You don't need a majority to want it. You don't need the supporters of the despot to believe it's what they want. Bit by bit it happens and the people are dragged every step of the way.

That all said, I do vent here sometimes because I know how it would impact people in my real life if I constantly acted like this. So I do some "anonymous" venting, if you will. But do I believe one-party authoritarianism is on the table? Absolutely.

HughFreakingDillon · October 2020

OnWis97 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years? There won't be "blue" by then.

Is this schtick for for you? Are you this nervous/negative in real life? lol Sorry I just can't tell if you are serious or not...

I believe this with all my heart. I have read some on authoritarian states and that's the way we're going. You don't need a majority to want it. You don't need the supporters of the despot to believe it's what they want. Bit by bit it happens and the people are dragged every step of the way.

That all said, I do vent here sometimes because I know how it would impact people in my real life if I constantly acted like this. So I do some "anonymous" venting, if you will. But do I believe one-party authoritarianism is on the table? Absolutely.

even if trump somehow wins, many of his supporters in the senate are in serious trouble in this election, far more republicans than democrats are in danger. that should tell you something.

Jearlpam0925 · October 2020

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

The last senate election was a glimpse of the future. The sun belt in general is changing.

Absolutely, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just like 50/50 on it right now. Maybe 60/40 at best.

The Juggler · October 2020

OnWis97 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years? There won't be "blue" by then.

Is this schtick for for you? Are you this nervous/negative in real life? lol Sorry I just can't tell if you are serious or not...

I believe this with all my heart. I have read some on authoritarian states and that's the way we're going. You don't need a majority to want it. You don't need the supporters of the despot to believe it's what they want. Bit by bit it happens and the people are dragged every step of the way.

That all said, I do vent here sometimes because I know how it would impact people in my real life if I constantly acted like this. So I do some "anonymous" venting, if you will. But do I believe one-party authoritarianism is on the table? Absolutely.

Yeah, I don't man. Biden's up at least 8% nationally...if that holds, he'll win the popular vote by about 12 million + people. That's not just a majority, that's a really really large majority. I think you tend to be swayed a lot by the really vocal minority.

I understand the concern, believe me, but this country is better than that. You'll see next week. Have faith.

OnWis97 · October 2020

HughFreakingDillon said:

OnWis97 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years? There won't be "blue" by then.

Is this schtick for for you? Are you this nervous/negative in real life? lol Sorry I just can't tell if you are serious or not...

I believe this with all my heart. I have read some on authoritarian states and that's the way we're going. You don't need a majority to want it. You don't need the supporters of the despot to believe it's what they want. Bit by bit it happens and the people are dragged every step of the way.

That all said, I do vent here sometimes because I know how it would impact people in my real life if I constantly acted like this. So I do some "anonymous" venting, if you will. But do I believe one-party authoritarianism is on the table? Absolutely.

even if trump somehow wins, many of his supporters in the senate are in serious trouble in this election, far more republicans than democrats are in danger. that should tell you something.

It tells me that the majority of American citizens are not on the Trump Train. They don't need a majority...

Also, with all the shenanigans (or, as we're calling it on other threads, "fuckery") going on, it's not just the president but some of the Senate seats that can change. Shock-Jock jackass Jason Lewis may benefit from the fuckery in Minnesota, for example.

The Juggler · October 2020

OnWis97 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

OnWis97 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years? There won't be "blue" by then.

Is this schtick for for you? Are you this nervous/negative in real life? lol Sorry I just can't tell if you are serious or not...

I believe this with all my heart. I have read some on authoritarian states and that's the way we're going. You don't need a majority to want it. You don't need the supporters of the despot to believe it's what they want. Bit by bit it happens and the people are dragged every step of the way.

That all said, I do vent here sometimes because I know how it would impact people in my real life if I constantly acted like this. So I do some "anonymous" venting, if you will. But do I believe one-party authoritarianism is on the table? Absolutely.

even if trump somehow wins, many of his supporters in the senate are in serious trouble in this election, far more republicans than democrats are in danger. that should tell you something.

It tells me that the majority of American citizens are not on the Trump Train. They don't need a majority...

Also, with all the shenanigans (or, as we're calling it on other threads, "fuckery") going on, it's not just the president but some of the Senate seats that can change. Shock-Jock jackass Jason Lewis may benefit from the fuckery in Minnesota, for example.

My point is I think the election might not be as close as people think next week. The shenanigans people are concerned about that can swing the election to Trump can only happen if the margins are razor thin like last time. I don't think that will be the case.

mrussel1 · October 2020

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

The last senate election was a glimpse of the future. The sun belt in general is changing.

Absolutely, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just like 50/50 on it right now. Maybe 60/40 at best.

60/40 feels right, if it's even possible to put a % on how people vote. But agreed.

Lerxst1992 · October 2020

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

The last senate election was a glimpse of the future. The sun belt in general is changing.

Absolutely, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just like 50/50 on it right now. Maybe 60/40 at best.

60/40 feels right, if it's even possible to put a % on how people vote. But agreed.

Its not just AZ. How about TX? If my maths are correct, the state population went up 1.2 million since Clinton lost to trump, and all of that growth is in the 4 metro areas that are now solid blue (Hou, Dal, Aus, SA) and Ft Worth was 50/50 in the midterms.

Not only has the population gone up, but Hillary , a loser, outperformed Obama on a % basis in these locations. TX seems to be only a matter of time, and more of an eventuality than AZ. Hopefully this is the year. But AZ could be sooner ( but eventually more competitive, as TX could be a serious lean D state down the road if these cities continue to grow and become diverse).

Gern Blansten · October 2020

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

The last senate election was a glimpse of the future. The sun belt in general is changing.

Absolutely, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just like 50/50 on it right now. Maybe 60/40 at best.

60/40 feels right, if it's even possible to put a % on how people vote. But agreed.

Its not just AZ. How about TX? If my maths are correct, the state population went up 1.2 million since Clinton lost to trump, and all of that growth is in the 4 metro areas that are now solid blue (Hou, Dal, Aus, SA) and Ft Worth was 50/50 in the midterms.

Not only has the population gone up, but Hillary , a loser, outperformed Obama on a % basis in these locations. TX seems to be only a matter of time, and more of an eventuality than AZ. Hopefully this is the year. But AZ could be sooner ( but eventually more competitive, as TX could be a serious lean D state down the road if these cities continue to grow and become diverse).

It just seems like TX will go blue....I just can't imagine that tRump's turnout will be higher than 2016 and we know Biden's turnout will beat Clinton's.

The Juggler · October 2020

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

The last senate election was a glimpse of the future. The sun belt in general is changing.

Absolutely, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just like 50/50 on it right now. Maybe 60/40 at best.

60/40 feels right, if it's even possible to put a % on how people vote. But agreed.

Its not just AZ. How about TX? If my maths are correct, the state population went up 1.2 million since Clinton lost to trump, and all of that growth is in the 4 metro areas that are now solid blue (Hou, Dal, Aus, SA) and Ft Worth was 50/50 in the midterms.

Not only has the population gone up, but Hillary , a loser, outperformed Obama on a % basis in these locations. TX seems to be only a matter of time, and more of an eventuality than AZ. Hopefully this is the year. But AZ could be sooner ( but eventually more competitive, as TX could be a serious lean D state down the road if these cities continue to grow and become diverse).

It just seems like TX will go blue....I just can't imagine that tRump's turnout will be higher than 2016 and we know Biden's turnout will beat Clinton's.

Blue tsunami....set to wash over this entire country. Hang on Steve, we're coming in for a landing...

Jearlpam0925 · October 2020

A few things re: PA below:

This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

Then this, fucking boooo:

https://twitter.com/JMelwert/status/1322196179237720064?s=20

And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:

https://twitter.com/sczajic/status/1322172074841022464?s=20

brianlux · October 2020

MayDay10 said:

The 'problem' is the older population is dying, and the fundamentalist churchgoing population is decreasing. Republicans have had a major need to rethink their message and platform. I felt like the Romney election loss solidified the need and we may see a revision of the Republicans to join modern times. They need younger voters. Listen to conservative talk radio or watch foxnews. So many commercials are geared toward old, gullible, and paranoid people. THE DOLLAR IS CRASHING. ILL TELL YOU HOW TO BUY GOLD. PAY FOR MY BOOK IN 4 INSTALLMENTS OF $35 AND ILL TELL YOU HOW.

So instead of changing their message that the majority of the country rejects, they just triple down on their worst impulses and get in bed with Donald Trump. They are almost incapable of winning a national election anymore in any conventional manner. So instead of growing their base, they just made the diminishing base more angry. They have used the flag as a shield, but pretend they honor it. Same with Veterans. Its a disgrace.

I guess their only hope is to basically fix the rules for voting, to make sure less people can vote. Erode the separation of powers (they have absolutely packed the Federal Courts with political operatives who are completely unqualified). We are at a huge crossroads here. More importantly, a Biden administration would need to get cracking on Election Security, Campaign reform, Voter security, etc...

I think that all the Republican party needs to do to remain strong is to appeal to stupidity. Why? Because well educated people are and have been reproducing in lower numbers. This all started with the boomer generation, the "upwardly mobile" "dinks" (dual income/ no kids) were either aware that the human population was getting to large, or they just wanted more time for leisure, or more time to amass larger and larger sums of money through working longer hours. America is getting more and more stupid and Republicans knows it and appeal to that group of people. I honestly don't see how that is going to turn around. If I wrong about all this, please someone prove it to me!

The Juggler · October 2020

Jearlpam0925 said:

A few things re: PA below:

This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

Then this, fucking boooo:

https://twitter.com/JMelwert/status/1322196179237720064?s=20

And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:

https://twitter.com/sczajic/status/1322172074841022464?s=20

The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result.

gimmesometruth27 · October 2020

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

A few things re: PA below:

This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:

https://jtannen.github.io/election_hub_test.html

Then this, fucking boooo:

https://twitter.com/JMelwert/status/1322196179237720064?s=20

And this regarding more fuckery and the narrative:

https://twitter.com/sczajic/status/1322172074841022464?s=20

The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result.

i will bet you fox and oann will call it early for trump. just like fox called florida way too early for bush in 2000. they need to do this to sow doubt in the election and the results.

they can always come out later and do a mea culpa if biden ends up winning. look what fox is doing now with the hunter biden "documents".

pjhawks · October 2020

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

OnWis97 said:

The Juggler said:

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Assuming all states vote the same as 2016, but Biden wins WI and MI, as 538 puts both about 95% Biden-

If that’s true, looking at swing states, Trump must SWEEP the following states that show either Biden ahead or very close-
PA NC FL GA AZ TX IA OH. Trump must go 8 for 8 in these states.

Now if these were real odds like betting football it would be close to impossible. But elections are more like high or low tide, they tend to move together. Which is why I was skeptical of putting “odds” on an election, but this comment is here to portray optimism.

All comes down to PA then and the fuckery. To me I view none of those in the Dems' favor, other than PA and maybe AZ & NC. Otherwise, the rest just make me feel good that turnout is high - I just don't know if it's enough in those historically Red states.

I don't think it does. Lerx has it right. I would give AZ as good of a chance for Biden as PA. The demos are changing.

I was talking to two friends in Scottsdale, I really want to believe, I really do. I think it's a consistent Blue state in another 10 years, but I just won't believe it until I see it.

In ten years? There won't be "blue" by then.

Is this schtick for for you? Are you this nervous/negative in real life? lol Sorry I just can't tell if you are serious or not...

I believe this with all my heart. I have read some on authoritarian states and that's the way we're going. You don't need a majority to want it. You don't need the supporters of the despot to believe it's what they want. Bit by bit it happens and the people are dragged every step of the way.

That all said, I do vent here sometimes because I know how it would impact people in my real life if I constantly acted like this. So I do some "anonymous" venting, if you will. But do I believe one-party authoritarianism is on the table? Absolutely.

even if trump somehow wins, many of his supporters in the senate are in serious trouble in this election, far more republicans than democrats are in danger. that should tell you something.

It tells me that the majority of American citizens are not on the Trump Train. They don't need a majority...

Also, with all the shenanigans (or, as we're calling it on other threads, "fuckery") going on, it's not just the president but some of the Senate seats that can change. Shock-Jock jackass Jason Lewis may benefit from the fuckery in Minnesota, for example.

My point is I think the election might not be as close as people think next week. The shenanigans people are concerned about that can swing the election to Trump can only happen if the margins are razor thin like last time. I don't think that will be the case.

I agree. If it hadn't happened like it did in 2016 I think most people would be saying this is going to be a thrashing. I try to think of it logically. Trump has gained no supporters since 2016 and the non-Trump side has gained millions of people to their side. The turnout from the non-Trump side is already showing that it will be massive. Logically Biden wins big.

Now if I'm wrong I may jump off the Ben Franklin bridge (not really) but think if you put away the 2016 bias, the logic dictates Biden big.

Nate Silver 538

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