The coronavirus
Comments
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😂😂😂😂OnWis97 said:I can't imagine anyone taking a cruise any time in the near future...like before there's not only a vaccine but a significant amount of "normal" time has passed.I'll never take one (never really wanted to, anyway, but even if I did, there's no way I'd be doing it in 2020).
You don't use Facebook, do you?
Fat morons will line up in the thousands to pack those cruise ships, as long as they still have Mountain Dew at the buffet!Monkey Driven, Call this Living?0 -
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.oftenreading said:Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.0 -
Especially if the trough is open 24/7rgambs said:
😂😂😂😂OnWis97 said:I can't imagine anyone taking a cruise any time in the near future...like before there's not only a vaccine but a significant amount of "normal" time has passed.I'll never take one (never really wanted to, anyway, but even if I did, there's no way I'd be doing it in 2020).
You don't use Facebook, do you?
Fat morons will line up in the thousands to pack those cruise ships, as long as they still have Mountain Dew at the buffet!
Just pile it on my walmart xxxxl stretch pants can handle it0 -
German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than we thought
At UnHerd, we’ve spoken to experts at both ends of the range of estimates, from Neil Ferguson (who believes the IFR to be just under 1%, perhaps 0.8-0.9%) to Johan Giesecke who maintains that it is nearer 0.1%.This may sound like splitting hairs – they are both under one percent after all – but in reality the difference between these estimates changes everything. At the lower end, a much more laissez-faire policy becomes possible, and at 30,000 deaths it starts to look like the UK has already been through the worst of it; at the higher end, a policy of continued ultra-caution is necessary because a more relaxed approach could mean hundreds of thousands of additional deaths.That’s why the study conducted by Professor Hendrik Streeck of the University of Bonn is so significant: a fully representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.
https://youtu.be/vrL9QKGQrWk
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0 -
pjl44 said:
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.oftenreading said:Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.
I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.
Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/b-c-looking-for-sweet-spot-when-it-comes-to-opening-province-back-up-1.24129434
my small self... like a book amongst the many on a shelf0 -
Kudos to your officials for what I think is an extremely thoughtful and digestible response. This is exactly the sorta stuff I think leaders in the US have whiffed on. I'm firmly convinced that people here are starting to loosen up themselves because we're not being given an idea of what the path back looks like.oftenreading said:pjl44 said:
This is really interesting. I'd love to know what some of the drivers of contact are, in their definition. For example, if a city only eliminated large indoor gatherings of (say) 1,000 or more people, what % drop would that account for alone? I have theories about this and absolutely no data to back them up.oftenreading said:Today in BC the provincial Medical Health Officer and the Minister of Health presented some modelling they have been doing to help guide loosening up the restrictions. We have been fortunate to have been able to squash our curve, and cases have never overwhelmed the capacity of our health care system. The data suggests that, with current restrictions in place, people are experiencing about 30% of the contact with others that they were pre-covid. Modelling estimates that increasing contact to 40% of "normal" would not raise the rate of new infections any appreciable amount, raising it to 60% would likely lead to an increase in cases that is manageable within the healthcare system, and raising it to 80% would lead to a major spike in cases. In the words of our health minister, "we cannot throw open the doors, but we can begin to open the windows". We're now waiting to learn which windows exactly will open, and when. Details on Wednesday apparently.
I'm curious as well to see what doubling our "contacts" are, from 30% to 60%. Here's an excerpt from an article in our local paper today:New cases of COVID-19 since control measures were put in place in mid-March have seen a “dramatic and sustained” decrease, said Henry, citing data tracking COVID-19 in B.C. from Jan. 1 to April 29.
There were 19 new confirmed cases as of Sunday, for a total of 2,224 in B.C., said Henry.
That contrasts with dire scenarios envisioned in late March of thousands sick and hospitalized, based on experiences in northern Italy and Hubei, China. That modelling was abandoned midway through April, and current models are based on the province’s experience.
Measures imposed since mid-March have reduced British Columbians to about 30 per cent of their normal contacts, Henry said — including school closures, bans on gatherings of more than 50 people, closures of parks, restaurants and bars, bans on visiting seniors in care homes and patients in hospital, restrictions on non-essential travel by air and ferry and an increased number of people working from home.
New cases and hospitalizations would remain relatively low if “safe contacts” — as opposed to “unprotected contacts” — were increased to 40 per cent of normal numbers, Henry said, citing modelling data.
According to a graph presented by the provincial health officer, new cases would almost peter out by July.
Doubling current safe contacts to 60 per cent shows increased cases and hospitalizations, “but they would be manageable,” Henry said.
Increasing contacts to 80 per cent, however, would allow the virus to “increase exponentially,” she said. “We might be in a situation we have seen in other places around the world, where we have a rapidly increasing outbreak and a rapidly increasing number of people who need hospitalization.”
Henry, who called the current situation the “end of our beginning of this pandemic,” said there is room to increase social connections, “to increase our work, to increase our school and day care and child care.”
B.C. Premier John Horgan is expected to speak this week about easing of restrictions, which he has said will be a “slow, methodical phased-in approach.”
For this summer, that may mean allowing team sports under restrictions, for instance, said Henry. The order capping all gatherings to 50 people and recommendations to keep a physical distance of two metres from anyone outside safe contacts would remain in place. “Smaller is better; outside is safer than inside,” said Henry.
Henry has said officials will not open some sectors until they are sure there are workable plans for protection. She pointed to a graph from Johns Hopkins Education and Research Center for Occupational Health and Safety showing the most effective controls are physical-distancing, followed by engineered controls such as barriers at cashier counters in stores, and administrative controls including one-way store aisle markers. The least-effective controls are personal protective equipment, including masks.
Full article here, with more outcome data on the cases we've seen in BC and additional planning:
https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/b-c-looking-for-sweet-spot-when-it-comes-to-opening-province-back-up-1.241294340 -
@Brianlux Do you have an online store website or do you use Amazon? I figured it would not be “marketing” if inquiring minds asked for a link herebrianlux said:Meltdown99 said:California will be allowing some business’s to re-open Friday.Gov. Newsom did mention that today but he said these will be retail businesses open for curbside pickup only. In other words, not open- open. We'll see what happens Friday- things do change a bit from day to day and week to week, but so far it's just for curbside pickup.We have one guy at the bookstore who might work the store some days. The rest of us are over 65 and staying home for now. Personally, I'm staying home until this thing is over or until hell freezes over, which ever comes first. I re-opened my on line book sales though, so I have a few bucks trickling in.
Post edited by PJPOWER on0 -
Woah! There's Mountain Dew at the fancy Buffet?!? Count me in!!rgambs said:
😂😂😂😂OnWis97 said:I can't imagine anyone taking a cruise any time in the near future...like before there's not only a vaccine but a significant amount of "normal" time has passed.I'll never take one (never really wanted to, anyway, but even if I did, there's no way I'd be doing it in 2020).
You don't use Facebook, do you?
Fat morons will line up in the thousands to pack those cruise ships, as long as they still have Mountain Dew at the buffet!0 -
^ The cute guy that invited me to the Wheelhouse had a lime in his beverage, too!
Not sure about Dr. Pepper, though!
Watching flics in the hot tub and visiting Fjord-type locals, my Pipsqueak learned Horse on the b-ball court, and the pool is empty when in Port, which is a new Co-Vid consideration,..
My next cruise will have a younger demographic with less risk and fear!
I was swimming in the Great Barrier Reef
Animals were hiding behind the Coral
Except for little Turtle
I could swear he's trying to talk to me
Gurgle Gurgle0 -
Recently leaked documents appear to show the Trump admin has a model that expects 200,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths per day by June 1, and that this model has frequently underestimated the number of cases and deaths to date (This despite pundits' howling that "models" have been exaggerated).The admin might also be relying on a model that claims, fantastically, that this all goes away ten days from now.
2008 Tampa - 2013 Buffalo - 2016 Tampa - 2016 Fenway II
Audioslave 2005 MSG0 -
Dr. Anders Tegnell - Sweden’s Decision Not to Impose Quarantine | The Daily Social Distancing Show
https://youtu.be/ypwoyVl5Dxk"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0 -
PJPOWER said:
@Brianlux Do you have an online store website or do you use Amazon? I figured it would not be “marketing” if inquiring minds asked for a link herebrianlux said:Meltdown99 said:California will be allowing some business’s to re-open Friday.Gov. Newsom did mention that today but he said these will be retail businesses open for curbside pickup only. In other words, not open- open. We'll see what happens Friday- things do change a bit from day to day and week to week, but so far it's just for curbside pickup.We have one guy at the bookstore who might work the store some days. The rest of us are over 65 and staying home for now. Personally, I'm staying home until this thing is over or until hell freezes over, which ever comes first. I re-opened my on line book sales though, so I have a few bucks trickling in.Thanks for asking, PJPOWER. I'm not a big Amazon fan- mainly because in the past Jeff Bezos has been aggressive about wanting to take over the used book market to the point of creating a market where other on-line book sales sites as well as brick and mortar bookstores and other businesses struggle greatly to stay afloat. But on the other hand, during this pandemic, Amazon has literally been a lifesaver by making it possible for people like my sister to get food and goods with out having to risk going out to the store. For that, I am grateful.At the risk of engagingly in shameless self-promotion, my books are on biblio.com and are listed under A Quiet Corner For Books.
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
Cool, I’ll check er’ outbrianlux said:PJPOWER said:
@Brianlux Do you have an online store website or do you use Amazon? I figured it would not be “marketing” if inquiring minds asked for a link herebrianlux said:Meltdown99 said:California will be allowing some business’s to re-open Friday.Gov. Newsom did mention that today but he said these will be retail businesses open for curbside pickup only. In other words, not open- open. We'll see what happens Friday- things do change a bit from day to day and week to week, but so far it's just for curbside pickup.We have one guy at the bookstore who might work the store some days. The rest of us are over 65 and staying home for now. Personally, I'm staying home until this thing is over or until hell freezes over, which ever comes first. I re-opened my on line book sales though, so I have a few bucks trickling in.Thanks for asking, PJPOWER. I'm not a big Amazon fan- mainly because in the past Jeff Bezos has been aggressive about wanting to take over the used book market to the point of creating a market where other on-line book sales sites as well as brick and mortar bookstores and other businesses struggle greatly to stay afloat. But on the other hand, during this pandemic, Amazon has literally been a lifesaver by making it possible for people like my sister to get food and goods with out having to risk going out to the store. For that, I am grateful.At the risk of engagingly in shameless self-promotion, my books are on biblio.com and are listed under A Quiet Corner For Books.! 0 -
Watching Gov Cuomo's update today on youtube. This guy has my respect. He calls it like he sees it. Incredible talk about the value of a human life. Opening vs stay at home. Starts at .45 secs. Watch if you have time.
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PJPOWER said:
Cool, I’ll check er’ outbrianlux said:PJPOWER said:
@Brianlux Do you have an online store website or do you use Amazon? I figured it would not be “marketing” if inquiring minds asked for a link herebrianlux said:Meltdown99 said:California will be allowing some business’s to re-open Friday.Gov. Newsom did mention that today but he said these will be retail businesses open for curbside pickup only. In other words, not open- open. We'll see what happens Friday- things do change a bit from day to day and week to week, but so far it's just for curbside pickup.We have one guy at the bookstore who might work the store some days. The rest of us are over 65 and staying home for now. Personally, I'm staying home until this thing is over or until hell freezes over, which ever comes first. I re-opened my on line book sales though, so I have a few bucks trickling in.Thanks for asking, PJPOWER. I'm not a big Amazon fan- mainly because in the past Jeff Bezos has been aggressive about wanting to take over the used book market to the point of creating a market where other on-line book sales sites as well as brick and mortar bookstores and other businesses struggle greatly to stay afloat. But on the other hand, during this pandemic, Amazon has literally been a lifesaver by making it possible for people like my sister to get food and goods with out having to risk going out to the store. For that, I am grateful.At the risk of engagingly in shameless self-promotion, my books are on biblio.com and are listed under A Quiet Corner For Books.!
Thanks!
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
Spiritual_Chaos said:
German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than we thought
At UnHerd, we’ve spoken to experts at both ends of the range of estimates, from Neil Ferguson (who believes the IFR to be just under 1%, perhaps 0.8-0.9%) to Johan Giesecke who maintains that it is nearer 0.1%.This may sound like splitting hairs – they are both under one percent after all – but in reality the difference between these estimates changes everything. At the lower end, a much more laissez-faire policy becomes possible, and at 30,000 deaths it starts to look like the UK has already been through the worst of it; at the higher end, a policy of continued ultra-caution is necessary because a more relaxed approach could mean hundreds of thousands of additional deaths.That’s why the study conducted by Professor Hendrik Streeck of the University of Bonn is so significant: a fully representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.The Streeck study? You’re kidding, right? He’s the dude who claims based on antibody testing in one small German town the CFR is almost as low as the flu at 0.37%?You know there are significant problems with the antibody tests and none have been properly vetted? You know if you account for population difference Sweden would have about 90,000 fatalities when comparing to USA?0 -
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Deep state whiner.mrussel1 said:0 -
“It appears the plan is, shamefully, to have no plan. Americans will suffer. We must replace this administration in November.”-Hillary Clinton.You got that right Hillary!
Trump poised to wind down Covid-19 taskforce as US death toll tops 70,000
"It's a sad and beautiful world"-Roberto Benigni0 -
Johan Giesecke has an article this morning in THE LANCET
The invisible pandemic
Many countries (and members of their press media) have marvelled at Sweden's relaxed strategy in the face of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: schools and most workplaces have remained open, and police officers were not checking one's errands in the street. Severe critics have described it as Sweden sacrificing its (elderly) citizens to quickly reach herd immunity.1 The death toll has surpassed our three closest neighbours, Denmark, Norway, and Finland, but the mortality remains lower than in the UK, Spain, and Belgium.2It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect.3 Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK's experience with that of other European countries./.../These facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.
More at the link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext
"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JS-5ZC5Ur0k&t=1204s
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