North American Tour Odds

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Comments

  • P-Town-P-Jam-Fan
    P-Town-P-Jam-Fan Posts: 930
    tempo_n_groove said:
    pbultimate said:
    I don’t see seat assignments happening this quickly. Get notice of won/lost this weekend. Seat specifics in 2 weeks. 
    TM in NY has to give you hard tix so it should happen pretty quickly.
    I don't think this is accurate.  NY needs to be transferable, but not hard tickets.  My guess is the tickets are still mobile entry, but transferable through the ticketmaster app.  Maybe they will provide for an option for hard tickets, but they're not required to provide hard tickets.
    Gorge
  • JAYHB
    JAYHB Posts: 77
    Anyone have any insite on my chances to get Reserved at a 99% show? Specifically Nashville? Totally new to this process and 
    2012: Music Midtown
    2016: Jacksonville
    2022: Nashville
    2025: Atlanta
  • patkelly12
    patkelly12 CT Posts: 361
    I don't see how there can be a Ten Club Ticket exchange. Once TM took over the concept of Ten Club tickets ceases to exist. Tickets when issued are the property of TM and would follow their exchange rules/policies. How would one discern you were exchanging a ticket to a TC member? The Exchange is just a fancy way to say refunds available, in my opinion. You give the ticket back to TM and they do with it what they will. And that's just for the non-transferable. MSG will be the Wild West.
  • BennyLaRue
    BennyLaRue Posts: 751
    JAYHB said:
    Anyone have any insite on my chances to get Reserved at a 99% show? Specifically Nashville? Totally new to this process and 
    Unless you screwed up somehow, you're pretty much guaranteed to have tickets. I mean, theoretically, it's possible that the odds worked out to be 98.6% and they rounded up, in which case we'll have ~7 disappointed people.
  • Lost_And_No_Guide
    Lost_And_No_Guide Posts: 105
    afgpj said:
    dmbolp said:
    For DMB seat assignments have come weeks later with TICKETSTODAY (more shows = more weeks later), so matches with the 1/27 seat assignment date.  I think this process is going to have other similarities to DMB's ticket process.
    Was there GA for DMB?  If so, did the first email say what kind of ticket you got?
    Yes, DMB has GA, and yes, the confirmation email tells you what level of ticket you were confirmed for.
  • afgpj
    afgpj Upstate NY Posts: 142
    Lost_And_No_Guide said:
    afgpj said:
    dmbolp said:
    For DMB seat assignments have come weeks later with TICKETSTODAY (more shows = more weeks later), so matches with the 1/27 seat assignment date.  I think this process is going to have other similarities to DMB's ticket process.
    Was there GA for DMB?  If so, did the first email say what kind of ticket you got?
    Yes, DMB has GA, and yes, the confirmation email tells you what level of ticket you were confirmed for.
    Great. Thanks.
  • jdizzle8291
    jdizzle8291 Erie, PA Posts: 456
    JAYHB said:
    Anyone have any insite on my chances to get Reserved at a 99% show? Specifically Nashville? Totally new to this process and 
    99% chance

    2016: Toronto I, Chicago I + II
    2018: Seattle I + II, Chicago I + II
    2020: Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec, Hamilton, Nashville, St. Louis, Krakow, Budapest, Zurich
  • ajflicker
    ajflicker Canada Posts: 166
    edited January 2020
    Quebec confirms now coming out. So it begins.
    Post edited by ajflicker on
  • Sprunkn7
    Sprunkn7 Posts: 5,286
    My chances are 57%.  I have not had good luck in these lotteries I will tell ya and had not had any luck in Verified TM sales.  Hoping my tide has turned!
    Thank you fellow 10 clubber for saving my ass....again!!!
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,554
    JW269453 said:
    All these odds do is show me that there are not near as many paid members as people think. Since we were able to see how many tickets were held at each venue basic math can now be applied to find out roughly how many requests came in. Given the population in the northeast and only 2 shows you would think the odds would have been much worse for NY and Baltimore. Lets say they are holding 15k tickets for MSG (which is amazing), but if NY is at 57% odds that means roughly 26-27k ticket requests came in. Unless they have an odds system that is not factually based that is not that impressive given the insane population in that area and most members going for 2 tickets. I understand that putting in for only GA or only reserved skews the odds some, but not a crazy amount. What PJ did by securing more tickets was great because it gives members in those insane population density areas a much better shot and it doesn't matter where they play the public will grab up whats left in most cases. Win-win situation.

    The MSG ticket allocation to the club is probably one third less. Shows “in the round” get just under 20k full house, and back stage and most side stage is not 10c.

    also, there was a big reveal with seat locations on msg stub hub yesterday. The resale tickets are most likely Knick STH and other prime customers, and every stub hub seat I saw was row 15 and up.

    this is great news for members here, but possibly about one third of each section is not 10c. Also consider, the higher rows have more seats than the lower rows.
  • Sue
    Sue Posts: 36
    P-Town-P-Jam-Fan said:
    tempo_n_groove said:
    pbultimate said:
    I don’t see seat assignments happening this quickly. Get notice of won/lost this weekend. Seat specifics in 2 weeks. 
    TM in NY has to give you hard tix so it should happen pretty quickly.
    I don't think this is accurate.  NY needs to be transferable, but not hard tickets.  My guess is the tickets are still mobile entry, but transferable through the ticketmaster app.  Maybe they will provide for an option for hard tickets, but they're not required to provide hard tickets.
    Correct. Most of the shows I’ve been to the past couple of years—including Tool in November—had mobile entry only. You can transfer to someone else, but within the Ticketmaster app. I had to make my brother sign up for a TM account so I could give him his tickets (he was seated in a far away section), they wouldn’t even transfer through Apple wallet. 
  • josevolution
    josevolution Posts: 32,222
    Quebec people getting tickets with 3rd choice , I doubt anyone will get MSG with 3rd choice or Baltimore..
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • Zod
    Zod Posts: 10,971
    josevolution said:
    Quebec people getting tickets with 3rd choice , I doubt anyone will get MSG with 3rd choice or Baltimore..
    Theoretically any show that had best available at 99% odds the person would get tickets in any round.  First, last, or in the middle.  Only the shows with lower percentages would anyone miss out (unless they chose GA only).
  • gotthebottle
    gotthebottle San Diego Posts: 3,884
    josevolution said:
    Quebec people getting tickets with 3rd choice , I doubt anyone will get MSG with 3rd choice or Baltimore..
    A few with their 4th choice...
  • Vedd Hedd
    Vedd Hedd Posts: 4,633
    If someone put reserved only, as their 1st priority, and the odds are 99%, that would basically be an automatic, correct?

    I saw it explained differently before. 

    Like previous lotteries, they would just keep filling requests until they filled everything up, right?


    Turn this anger into
    Nuclear fission
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    Vedd Hedd said:
    If someone put reserved only, as their 1st priority, and the odds are 99%, that would basically be an automatic, correct?

    I saw it explained differently before. 

    Like previous lotteries, they would just keep filling requests until they filled everything up, right?


    99% is the placeholder they have for all odds. The only time you will not get a ticket if the odds are 99% is if it is a true 99%. We only know that we are not guaranteed tickets when the needle moves to 98% and someone is going to be left out. 
  • Vedd Hedd
    Vedd Hedd Posts: 4,633
    PJNB said:
    Vedd Hedd said:
    If someone put reserved only, as their 1st priority, and the odds are 99%, that would basically be an automatic, correct?

    I saw it explained differently before. 

    Like previous lotteries, they would just keep filling requests until they filled everything up, right?


    99% is the placeholder they have for all odds. The only time you will not get a ticket if the odds are 99% is if it is a true 99%. We only know that we are not guaranteed tickets when the needle moves to 98% and someone is going to be left out. 
    Right. I just mean....let's put it this way...


    With 99%, we should not see many people shut out who had best available or reserved, correct?


    Turn this anger into
    Nuclear fission
  • D-Rod
    D-Rod Hamilton, Ontario Posts: 1,995
    Vedd Hedd said:
    PJNB said:
    Vedd Hedd said:
    If someone put reserved only, as their 1st priority, and the odds are 99%, that would basically be an automatic, correct?

    I saw it explained differently before. 

    Like previous lotteries, they would just keep filling requests until they filled everything up, right?


    99% is the placeholder they have for all odds. The only time you will not get a ticket if the odds are 99% is if it is a true 99%. We only know that we are not guaranteed tickets when the needle moves to 98% and someone is going to be left out. 
    Right. I just mean....let's put it this way...


    With 99%, we should not see many people shut out who had best available or reserved, correct?


    Correct.  I would be shocked if that happened 
    1996.....Toronto
    2005.....Hamilton
    2011.....Toronto N1, Toronto N2, Hamilton
    2013.....London, Buffalo
    2014.....Detroit
    2016.....Toronto N1 Toronto N2, Boston  N1, Boston N2, Chicago N1
    2018.....Seattle N1, Seattle N2
    2022.....San Diego, Los Angeles N1, Los Angeles N2, Phoenix, Oakland N1, Oakland N2, Quebec City, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto  
    2023.....Fort Worth N1, Fort Worth N2, Austin N1, Austin N2
    2024.....Las Vegas N1, Las Vegas N2, Los Angeles N1, Los Angeles N2, Boston N1, Boston N2
    2025.....Raleigh N1, Raleigh N2, Pittsburgh N1, Pittsburgh N2
    2026.....????????????????????????????????????????? 
  • Vedd Hedd
    Vedd Hedd Posts: 4,633
    D-Rod said:
    Vedd Hedd said:
    PJNB said:
    Vedd Hedd said:
    If someone put reserved only, as their 1st priority, and the odds are 99%, that would basically be an automatic, correct?

    I saw it explained differently before. 

    Like previous lotteries, they would just keep filling requests until they filled everything up, right?


    99% is the placeholder they have for all odds. The only time you will not get a ticket if the odds are 99% is if it is a true 99%. We only know that we are not guaranteed tickets when the needle moves to 98% and someone is going to be left out. 
    Right. I just mean....let's put it this way...


    With 99%, we should not see many people shut out who had best available or reserved, correct?


    Correct.  I would be shocked if that happened 
    Ok cool, thats what i was thinking, but some posts had me questioning that. Thanks
    Turn this anger into
    Nuclear fission
  • P-Town-P-Jam-Fan
    P-Town-P-Jam-Fan Posts: 930
    Lerxst1992 said:


    The MSG ticket allocation to the club is probably one third less. Shows “in the round” get just under 20k full house, and back stage and most side stage is not 10c.

    also, there was a big reveal with seat locations on msg stub hub yesterday. The resale tickets are most likely Knick STH and other prime customers, and every stub hub seat I saw was row 15 and up.

    this is great news for members here, but possibly about one third of each section is not 10c. Also consider, the higher rows have more seats than the lower rows.
    This is also probably the product of speculative ticket sales.  If you are going to spec tickets in say section 101, you;re most likely going to list a high row vs a low row.  Has a presale for Knicks season ticket holders already been offered?  I don't know the answer to that.
    Gorge

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