North American Tour Odds

P-Town-P-Jam-Fan

tempo_n_groove said:

pbultimate said:

I don’t see seat assignments happening this quickly. Get notice of won/lost this weekend. Seat specifics in 2 weeks. 

TM in NY has to give you hard tix so it should happen pretty quickly.

I don't think this is accurate.  NY needs to be transferable, but not hard tickets.  My guess is the tickets are still mobile entry, but transferable through the ticketmaster app.  Maybe they will provide for an option for hard tickets, but they're not required to provide hard tickets.

JAYHB

Anyone have any insite on my chances to get Reserved at a 99% show? Specifically Nashville? Totally new to this process and 

patkelly12

I don't see how there can be a Ten Club Ticket exchange. Once TM took over the concept of Ten Club tickets ceases to exist. Tickets when issued are the property of TM and would follow their exchange rules/policies. How would one discern you were exchanging a ticket to a TC member? The Exchange is just a fancy way to say refunds available, in my opinion. You give the ticket back to TM and they do with it what they will. And that's just for the non-transferable. MSG will be the Wild West.

BennyLaRue

JAYHB said:

Anyone have any insite on my chances to get Reserved at a 99% show? Specifically Nashville? Totally new to this process and 

Unless you screwed up somehow, you're pretty much guaranteed to have tickets. I mean, theoretically, it's possible that the odds worked out to be 98.6% and they rounded up, in which case we'll have ~7 disappointed people.

Lost_And_No_Guide

afgpj said:

dmbolp said:

For DMB seat assignments have come weeks later with TICKETSTODAY (more shows = more weeks later), so matches with the 1/27 seat assignment date.  I think this process is going to have other similarities to DMB's ticket process.

Was there GA for DMB?  If so, did the first email say what kind of ticket you got?

Yes, DMB has GA, and yes, the confirmation email tells you what level of ticket you were confirmed for.

afgpj

Lost_And_No_Guide said:

afgpj said:

dmbolp said:

For DMB seat assignments have come weeks later with TICKETSTODAY (more shows = more weeks later), so matches with the 1/27 seat assignment date.  I think this process is going to have other similarities to DMB's ticket process.

Was there GA for DMB?  If so, did the first email say what kind of ticket you got?

Yes, DMB has GA, and yes, the confirmation email tells you what level of ticket you were confirmed for.

Great. Thanks.

jdizzle8291

JAYHB said:

Anyone have any insite on my chances to get Reserved at a 99% show? Specifically Nashville? Totally new to this process and 

99% chance

ajflicker

Quebec confirms now coming out. So it begins.

Sprunkn7

My chances are 57%.  I have not had good luck in these lotteries I will tell ya and had not had any luck in Verified TM sales.  Hoping my tide has turned!

Lerxst1992

JW269453 said:

All these odds do is show me that there are not near as many paid members as people think. Since we were able to see how many tickets were held at each venue basic math can now be applied to find out roughly how many requests came in. Given the population in the northeast and only 2 shows you would think the odds would have been much worse for NY and Baltimore. Lets say they are holding 15k tickets for MSG (which is amazing), but if NY is at 57% odds that means roughly 26-27k ticket requests came in. Unless they have an odds system that is not factually based that is not that impressive given the insane population in that area and most members going for 2 tickets. I understand that putting in for only GA or only reserved skews the odds some, but not a crazy amount. What PJ did by securing more tickets was great because it gives members in those insane population density areas a much better shot and it doesn't matter where they play the public will grab up whats left in most cases. Win-win situation.

The MSG ticket allocation to the club is probably one third less. Shows “in the round” get just under 20k full house, and back stage and most side stage is not 10c.

also, there was a big reveal with seat locations on msg stub hub yesterday. The resale tickets are most likely Knick STH and other prime customers, and every stub hub seat I saw was row 15 and up.

this is great news for members here, but possibly about one third of each section is not 10c. Also consider, the higher rows have more seats than the lower rows.

Sue

P-Town-P-Jam-Fan said:

tempo_n_groove said:

pbultimate said:

I don’t see seat assignments happening this quickly. Get notice of won/lost this weekend. Seat specifics in 2 weeks. 

TM in NY has to give you hard tix so it should happen pretty quickly.

I don't think this is accurate.  NY needs to be transferable, but not hard tickets.  My guess is the tickets are still mobile entry, but transferable through the ticketmaster app.  Maybe they will provide for an option for hard tickets, but they're not required to provide hard tickets.

Correct. Most of the shows I’ve been to the past couple of years—including Tool in November—had mobile entry only. You can transfer to someone else, but within the Ticketmaster app. I had to make my brother sign up for a TM account so I could give him his tickets (he was seated in a far away section), they wouldn’t even transfer through Apple wallet. 

josevolution

Quebec people getting tickets with 3rd choice , I doubt anyone will get MSG with 3rd choice or Baltimore..

Zod

josevolution said:

Quebec people getting tickets with 3rd choice , I doubt anyone will get MSG with 3rd choice or Baltimore..

Theoretically any show that had best available at 99% odds the person would get tickets in any round.  First, last, or in the middle.  Only the shows with lower percentages would anyone miss out (unless they chose GA only).

gotthebottle

josevolution said:

Quebec people getting tickets with 3rd choice , I doubt anyone will get MSG with 3rd choice or Baltimore..

A few with their 4th choice...

Vedd Hedd

If someone put reserved only, as their 1st priority, and the odds are 99%, that would basically be an automatic, correct?

I saw it explained differently before. 

Like previous lotteries, they would just keep filling requests until they filled everything up, right?

PJNB

Vedd Hedd said:

If someone put reserved only, as their 1st priority, and the odds are 99%, that would basically be an automatic, correct?

I saw it explained differently before. 

Like previous lotteries, they would just keep filling requests until they filled everything up, right?

99% is the placeholder they have for all odds. The only time you will not get a ticket if the odds are 99% is if it is a true 99%. We only know that we are not guaranteed tickets when the needle moves to 98% and someone is going to be left out. 

Vedd Hedd

PJNB said:

Vedd Hedd said:

If someone put reserved only, as their 1st priority, and the odds are 99%, that would basically be an automatic, correct?

I saw it explained differently before. 

Like previous lotteries, they would just keep filling requests until they filled everything up, right?

99% is the placeholder they have for all odds. The only time you will not get a ticket if the odds are 99% is if it is a true 99%. We only know that we are not guaranteed tickets when the needle moves to 98% and someone is going to be left out. 

Right. I just mean....let's put it this way...


With 99%, we should not see many people shut out who had best available or reserved, correct?

D-Rod

Vedd Hedd said:

PJNB said:

Vedd Hedd said:

If someone put reserved only, as their 1st priority, and the odds are 99%, that would basically be an automatic, correct?

I saw it explained differently before. 

Like previous lotteries, they would just keep filling requests until they filled everything up, right?

99% is the placeholder they have for all odds. The only time you will not get a ticket if the odds are 99% is if it is a true 99%. We only know that we are not guaranteed tickets when the needle moves to 98% and someone is going to be left out. 

Right. I just mean....let's put it this way...


With 99%, we should not see many people shut out who had best available or reserved, correct?

Correct.  I would be shocked if that happened 

Vedd Hedd

D-Rod said:

Vedd Hedd said:

PJNB said:

Vedd Hedd said:

If someone put reserved only, as their 1st priority, and the odds are 99%, that would basically be an automatic, correct?

I saw it explained differently before. 

Like previous lotteries, they would just keep filling requests until they filled everything up, right?

99% is the placeholder they have for all odds. The only time you will not get a ticket if the odds are 99% is if it is a true 99%. We only know that we are not guaranteed tickets when the needle moves to 98% and someone is going to be left out. 

Right. I just mean....let's put it this way...


With 99%, we should not see many people shut out who had best available or reserved, correct?

Correct.  I would be shocked if that happened 

Ok cool, thats what i was thinking, but some posts had me questioning that. Thanks

P-Town-P-Jam-Fan

Lerxst1992 said:

The MSG ticket allocation to the club is probably one third less. Shows “in the round” get just under 20k full house, and back stage and most side stage is not 10c.

also, there was a big reveal with seat locations on msg stub hub yesterday. The resale tickets are most likely Knick STH and other prime customers, and every stub hub seat I saw was row 15 and up.

this is great news for members here, but possibly about one third of each section is not 10c. Also consider, the higher rows have more seats than the lower rows.

This is also probably the product of speculative ticket sales.  If you are going to spec tickets in say section 101, you;re most likely going to list a high row vs a low row.  Has a presale for Knicks season ticket holders already been offered?  I don't know the answer to that.