Are we headed for another crash in the stock market ?

245

Comments

  • jeffbr
    jeffbr Seattle Posts: 7,177
    mikepegg44 said:

    The short answer to this question is always yes. We are always headed towards another crash. they are inevitable as correction happens. Anyone telling you to prepare for a crash is like saying you should always carry an umbrella in the desert because eventually it will rain; the kicker is they probably sell umbrellas.

    Markets rise and fall, I mean shit, in the 1600's fucking tulip bulbs were one of the most valuable commodities in the world. The value increased to thousands of today's dollars for one bulb and then in the span of days the prices fell so hard for them people went bankrupt on the backs of TULIP BULBS.

    Our market will correct and hopefully it happens slowly over time in small increments so that it can rebound from those corrections before the next one comes. I doubt we will see the severity of the 2008 collapse for a while. If I were to guess the problem it will be the student loan bubble before anything else, but it is only a guess.

    I'll start first with my disclaimer that I think the original post is a BS marketing email to drum up business, targeting frightened investors. That being said...

    Hopefully it happens slowly, but we've seen crazy stuff the past couple of decades. And the student loan bubble will definitely be one cause. I also think real estate will correct in a couple of years. That market is crazy right now, at least around here, with buyers having to bid against each other above asking price, limited inventory, and rents skyrocketing. I also think we're in for another tech bubble burst soon. When Uber has a higher market cap than Delta Airlines and AirBnB has a higher market cap than Hilton International it is clear that we are back to over-inflated, irresponsible, speculative investing in tech stocks again. So we may see a slow correction if only one of these three areas corrects, but if they all decide to correct, or burst at the same time we may be in for a ride again. Tech bubble burst in 2000. Tech bubble burst in 2008. If the tech bubble bursts again in 2016 I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.

    I'm no analyst, and am not much of a prognosticator. I am just someone who was completely destroyed in 2008, lost everything due to the crash (equities, real estate, hell even my marriage), so am now pretty bearish on all of these markets. Just be careful out there - don't leverage yourself, don't overextend your obligations, don't trust in continued rapid growth and expect double digit rates of return to go on indefinitely. And don't fall for scams like in the OP.

    Or go ahead and party like it's 1999. I'll still volunteer to be a shoulder to cry on after the correction(s). Been there, done that.
    "I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
  • rr165892
    rr165892 Posts: 5,697
    edited July 2015
    Sorry to hear about that Jeff.I also got caught with my hand in cookie jar with a couple of investment properties.They are showing signs of life again which is good,but when it comes to the market I work a slow steady conservative approach.Hell,I had a BS annuity at the time of the crash that had a 3.50% return floor guaranteed.That sucker looked like a rock star compared to other accounts at that time.lol
    I'm keeping an eye on the rate increase this fall.Lets see how this effects the housing market,but maybe has a bit of a positive impact on other sectors like bonds.
  • jeffbr
    jeffbr Seattle Posts: 7,177
    Sounds like you're taking a smart approach. If I could do it all over again life would be different! lol. But I got caught up in the ride and was too leveraged to bail when things got bad, so had to watch everything get flushed. Those were crazy times, and I certainly learned some valuable life lessons. I think if you're cautious, know (and don't ignore) the risks, diversify, and invest for the long haul you should be fine. A conservative approach with modest expectations is the key, and it sounds like that's exactly what you're doing. Smart man!
    "I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
  • rr165892
    rr165892 Posts: 5,697
    edited July 2015
    Not sexy,just safe and steady.work up a plan,hedge against inflation with a modest return,hope for stable markets and the occasional nice pick.Im not into gambling,ya know?
    We have all learned costly lessons.how else do we know what not to do.
    Post edited by rr165892 on
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    No.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • DriftingByTheStorm
    DriftingByTheStorm Posts: 8,684
    edited August 2015
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBmWZXHZmb0
    If I was to smile and I held out my hand
    If I opened it now would you not understand?
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,760
    Sorry to hear about the hard fall, jeffbr. I hope things have turned around for you since then!

    So many people have been hurt by just trying to find a way to invest for their future, especially since pensions and retirement funds are not what they used to be. We invest rather conservatively and maybe that will hold us back a bit but I lost almost everything I had in the 90's (for different reason) so I take things cautiously 'cause I don't want to go there again. And I don't see retirement happening anytime soon. Actually I'll probably do what a friend said to me recently. She said, "I'll retire the day I take my last breath".
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • rr165892
    rr165892 Posts: 5,697
    What really is retirement in today's context?

    Is it finally being selfish and indulging in ones personal adventures ? Exploring the things and places that hectic everyday life has had us put on the back burner?Or is it slowing down the pace until you die?
    I personally don't think I could ever stop doing.Some day in the not to distant future I would love to get out of the 50-60 hr a week grind and sell our business.
    Id love to then open a True Rock and Roll bar in my next chapter.My area really needs one.I want it to smell like the 70s.lol or I want to get a food truck and while wearing my flip flops,cargos and backward baseball cap cook up some killer street grub up by the beach.
    I just know I need to plan for my wife to live out her life comfortably after I pass,and she's so stubborn she will probably live to 105,so nothing is done anytime soon.
  • PJ_Soul
    PJ_Soul Vancouver, BC Posts: 50,887
    I would say that a stock market crash is ALWAYS inevitable eventually. The question is always when, not if, and how long will recovery take this time.
    With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
  • PJ_ROCKS
    PJ_ROCKS THE 406 Posts: 6,736
    Godfather

    are you watching what is going on this morning....

    1995 San Francisco
              San Jose

              San Diego 2 shows 

           
    2003 Missoula

    2005 Missoula

    2006 Denver 2 shows with Tom Petty 

             Gorge 2 shows

    2009 Utah

              LA1

              LA2

    2012 Missoula : Meet and Greet : "Instant Classic show"

    2013 Portland

             Spokane


    2018 Missoula



  • hedonist
    hedonist Posts: 24,524
    PJ_ROCKS said:

    Godfather

    are you watching what is going on this morning....

    And last Friday.

    My husband made a great buy on Disney this morning!
  • Godfather.
    Godfather. Posts: 12,504
    PJ_ROCKS said:

    Godfather

    are you watching what is going on this morning....

    no, what's up ?

    Godfather.

  • rr165892
    rr165892 Posts: 5,697
    Look at this as a time to buy some bargains.This correction is long overdue and was to be expected.
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,760
    This is why I'll work till I drop.
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • hedonist
    hedonist Posts: 24,524
    rr165892 said:

    Look at this as a time to buy some bargains.This correction is long overdue and was to be expected.

    Hell yeah!

    Also got in on Blizzard.
  • PJ_Soul
    PJ_Soul Vancouver, BC Posts: 50,887
    edited August 2015
    Godfather. said:

    PJ_ROCKS said:

    Godfather

    are you watching what is going on this morning....

    no, what's up ?

    Godfather.

    Chinese markets dropped 8.5% (Shanghai Stock Exchange I think?), and now a global domino effect is underway.
    With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
  • dankind
    dankind Posts: 20,841
    WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I SAW PEARL JAM
  • PJfanwillneverleave1
    PJfanwillneverleave1 Posts: 12,885
    Like always, greed has pushed us all to the brink and it is now time to pay the piper.
    I for one can't wait for dishonest and greedy people start to lose their livelihood.
    I really don't give two shits what happens to the stock market.
    Nor the housing market for that matter.
    I certainly don't live in a mansion but I don't live in a shoe shack either.
    The amount my place is now valued at causes me to honestly disagree as I would never pay the amount for my home that the experts say it is worth, it's not.
    I don't play the stock game but people deserve everything that comes their way as a result of playing.
  • hedonist
    hedonist Posts: 24,524
    Some don't "play" at it - for us, it's for both short- and long-term investing. While it is a gamble - fuck, what isn't these days? - it's not even close to a game here (hell, that's what online poker is for).

    As to home-worthiness, it's a moot point. We've got equity, afford the mortgage we signed up for, and not looking to sell.
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,760
    PJfanwillneverleave1 said:

    Like always, greed has pushed us all to the brink and it is now time to pay the piper.
    I for one can't wait for dishonest and greedy people start to lose their livelihood.
    I really don't give two shits what happens to the stock market.
    Nor the housing market for that matter.
    I certainly don't live in a mansion but I don't live in a shoe shack either.
    The amount my place is now valued at causes me to honestly disagree as I would never pay the amount for my home that the experts say it is worth, it's not.
    I don't play the stock game but people deserve everything that comes their way as a result of playing.

    hedonist said:

    Some don't "play" at it - for us, it's for both short- and long-term investing. While it is a gamble - fuck, what isn't these days? - it's not even close to a game here (hell, that's what online poker is for).

    As to home-worthiness, it's a moot point. We've got equity, afford the mortgage we signed up for, and not looking to sell.

    I believe the whole stock market thing is a rigged game. There is definitely a greed factor there, PJFan. But like you, Hedo, my wife dabbles in it and believes it will help us when we can no longer work. I stay out of it and figure as long as I can keep working I'm doing what I need to do.

    As far as housing, I've gone from being a renter to a home owner to a renter to living in my vehicle to renting to currently owning a home but the only home I ever truly owned was living in my vehicle. It was the most honest way to live (but definitely had its draw backs). Renting and mortgages are mostly about lining someone else pockets. Were I younger and healthier I'd try something movable like a teepee.

    Market corrections come and go and this one will probably do just that but I can't help but wonder if one of these days the gears will all just fly apart and I wonder what that will look like.

    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

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