so what r the chances of gettn in the 1st 2 rows

lukin137
lukin137 Posts: 19
edited April 2008 in The Porch
alright were are the mathmaticians........i need odds people......the closest i got was 6th row in 2000 at tweeter( those werent even from the ten club either) still tryn to figure that out.......actually 96 in maine was general admission and i was able to force my way up pretty close. that was sweet. k back to topic..... what r my chances 1 n a thousand.hope i get lucky
Post edited by Unknown User on
«134

Comments

  • ECM
    ECM Posts: 1,687
    this might give everyone a general idea.... fun with math!!!!

    MSG capacity - about 20,000 seats
    10% fan club tickets (if that's what the 10C got) - about 2,000

    2000 tickets = 1000 pairs

    approx 42 seats in a row?

    Odds of front row pair: 2.1%
    Odds of second row pair: 2.1%

    Then subtract out the rows 1 and 2 and 3rd to 8th row (these are based off of senority) = 336 seats

    Remaining seats after 8 rows of distribution = 1664 seats = 832 pairs

    Now:

    Odds of 9th row pair: 2.5%
    Odds of 10th row pair: 2.5%

    So really if the 10% TM fan club rule applies, and you normally do not get better than row 10, you are looking at 9.2% chance of an upgrade....

    Go to more shows and your odds will go up.....
    wishlistfoundation.org
  • lukin137
    lukin137 Posts: 19
    nice man thats what im talkin bout that was quick too......9.2 percent aint bad sounds like 1 n 11 or so i can deal w those odds.goin to 3 shows.. well thats if second mansfield goes off...thx brother im gettn pumped
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    Evil Closet Monkey wrote:

    Go to more shows and your odds will go up.....

    Actually they won't. ;) Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

    But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

    But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • chromiam
    chromiam Posts: 4,114
    Solat13 wrote:
    Actually they won't. ;) Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

    But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

    But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.

    Ahhh that good ole Penn education comes in handy... even I know this :D
    This is your notice that there is a problem with your signature. Please remove it.

    Admin

    Social awareness does not equal political activism!

    5/23/2011- An utter embarrassment... ticketing failures too many to list.
  • whistle
    whistle Posts: 268
    Evil Closet Monkey wrote:
    this might give everyone a general idea.... fun with math!!!!

    MSG capacity - about 20,000 seats
    10% fan club tickets (if that's what the 10C got) - about 2,000

    2000 tickets = 1000 pairs

    approx 42 seats in a row?

    Odds of front row pair: 2.1%
    Odds of second row pair: 2.1%

    Then subtract out the rows 1 and 2 and 3rd to 8th row (these are based off of senority) = 336 seats

    Remaining seats after 8 rows of distribution = 1664 seats = 832 pairs

    Now:

    Odds of 9th row pair: 2.5%
    Odds of 10th row pair: 2.5%

    So really if the 10% TM fan club rule applies, and you normally do not get better than row 10, you are looking at 9.2% chance of an upgrade....

    Go to more shows and your odds will go up.....

    Kind of... thats a little misleading. Each concert is independent of each other so you'll always have 10% chance. Similar to roulette... the you spin the wheel more the more chances you'll have to hit your number but the odds of hitting that number will always be 1:38.
    Unless of course 10C keeps track of the ppl who win the upgrades... then your chances will slightly get better each concert you attend.
    http://www.expressobeans.com/trader.php?id=whistle55&view=4

    08/22/98 - 06/29/03 - 09/28/04 - 10/02/04 - 09/11/05 - 09/12/05 - 09/13/05 - 09/19/05 - 05/09/06 - 05/10/06 - 05/16/06 - 05/19/06 <-- best bday present ever! - 12/02/06
  • whistle
    whistle Posts: 268
    Solat13 wrote:
    Actually they won't. ;) Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

    But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

    But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.

    hahahah i took too long to write mine! hahah

    you must gamble also ;)
    http://www.expressobeans.com/trader.php?id=whistle55&view=4

    08/22/98 - 06/29/03 - 09/28/04 - 10/02/04 - 09/11/05 - 09/12/05 - 09/13/05 - 09/19/05 - 05/09/06 - 05/10/06 - 05/16/06 - 05/19/06 <-- best bday present ever! - 12/02/06
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    whistle wrote:
    hahahah i took too long to write mine! hahah

    you must gamble also ;)

    Yep, I've been known to play some roulette in my day though I haven't since Vegas in 06. ;)
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • lukin137
    lukin137 Posts: 19
    if you flip a quarter one time your odds on that particular flip is 50/50........is it safe to say if you flip the same quarter 3x.........u increase your chances that just one of those times will come in your favor.i think so.....or so i hope
  • patrickredeyes
    patrickredeyes Posts: 8,834
    I think it's great they switch it up like this. It's about time for some change, which is always good. :)
  • chromiam
    chromiam Posts: 4,114
    lukin137 wrote:
    if you flip a quarter one time your odds on that particular flip is 50/50........is it safe to say if you flip the same quarter 3x.........u increase your chances that just one of those times will come in your favor.i think so.....or so i hope

    no matter how many times you flip the coin, the chances are 50/50 that a particular side will land face up.
    This is your notice that there is a problem with your signature. Please remove it.

    Admin

    Social awareness does not equal political activism!

    5/23/2011- An utter embarrassment... ticketing failures too many to list.
  • ECM
    ECM Posts: 1,687
    Solat13 wrote:
    Actually they won't. ;) Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

    But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

    But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.

    grr Joe.... you are going to make me look up that formula.... thanks ;)
    wishlistfoundation.org
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    Evil Closet Monkey wrote:
    grr Joe.... you are going to make me look up that formula.... thanks ;)

    Like Mike said, sometimes that Penn education comes in handy. ;)
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • Stephen Flow
    Stephen Flow Posts: 3,327
    now what would be interesting is if you already get pulled for 1st or 2nd row you get taken out of the lottery for the other shows your attending to give other people a shot at it.
  • whistle
    whistle Posts: 268
    Solat13 wrote:
    Yep, I've been known to play some roulette in my day though I haven't since Vegas in 06. ;)

    I was just in Vegas a month ago! What a wild place! Mostly played cards at Bellagio though... hit the town one night pretty hard though! :D
    http://www.expressobeans.com/trader.php?id=whistle55&view=4

    08/22/98 - 06/29/03 - 09/28/04 - 10/02/04 - 09/11/05 - 09/12/05 - 09/13/05 - 09/19/05 - 05/09/06 - 05/10/06 - 05/16/06 - 05/19/06 <-- best bday present ever! - 12/02/06
  • lukin137
    lukin137 Posts: 19
    Stephen Flow wrote:
    now what would be interesting is if you already get pulled for 1st or 2nd row you get taken out of the lottery for the other shows your attending to give other people a shot at it.
    ya they should definitely do that ........ne thin to increase my chances would be appreciated 10c
  • Great White North
    Great White North Posts: 253
    Solat13 wrote:
    Actually they won't. ;) Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

    But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

    But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.

    the odds may not change but the likelihood will.
  • ECM
    ECM Posts: 1,687
    chromiam wrote:
    no matter how many times you flip the coin, the chances are 50/50 that a particular side will land face up.

    OK, flip that coin ten times..... what are the odds of that landing on heads all 10 times? Pretty slim.... same applies to people going to multiple shows, but I know the odds are not 50/50.... 91/9, 95/5... whatever... similar concept

    Again, there is a formula to calulate this... I have a feeling you won't let it go, so I'll look it up later.....

    ... and word "probability" should have been used over "odds"
    wishlistfoundation.org
  • chromiam
    chromiam Posts: 4,114
    Evil Closet Monkey wrote:
    OK, flip that coin ten times..... what are the odds of that landing on heads all 10 times? Pretty slim.... same applies to people going to multiple shows, but I know the odds are not 50/50.... 91/9, 95/5... whatever... similar concept

    Again, there is a formula to calulate this... I have a feeling you won't let it go, so I'll look it up later.....

    agreed but the more you flip the coin the more likely that it will land 50% of the time heads and 50% of the time tails. Each flip (show) is independent of each other and previous flips do not effect present and future flips.
    This is your notice that there is a problem with your signature. Please remove it.

    Admin

    Social awareness does not equal political activism!

    5/23/2011- An utter embarrassment... ticketing failures too many to list.
  • lukin137
    lukin137 Posts: 19
    Evil Closet Monkey wrote:
    OK, flip that coin ten times..... what are the odds of that landing on heads all 10 times? Pretty slim.... same applies to people going to multiple shows, but I know the odds are not 50/50.... 91/9, 95/5... whatever... similar concept

    Again, there is a formula to calulate this... I have a feeling you won't let it go, so I'll look it up later.....
    thats exactly what i was tryin to say but u said it much better.......each individual flip is always the same odds but do it enough and def sooner or later it will come in your favor
  • whistle
    whistle Posts: 268
    Evil Closet Monkey wrote:
    OK, flip that coin ten times..... what are the odds of that landing on heads all 10 times? Pretty slim.... same applies to people going to multiple shows, but I know the odds are not 50/50.... 91/9, 95/5... whatever... similar concept

    Again, there is a formula to calulate this... I have a feeling you won't let it go, so I'll look it up later.....

    ... and word "probability" should have been used over "odds"

    Who would of thought the message board would turn into a statistics class! hahha
    http://www.expressobeans.com/trader.php?id=whistle55&view=4

    08/22/98 - 06/29/03 - 09/28/04 - 10/02/04 - 09/11/05 - 09/12/05 - 09/13/05 - 09/19/05 - 05/09/06 - 05/10/06 - 05/16/06 - 05/19/06 <-- best bday present ever! - 12/02/06

Categories