so what r the chances of gettn in the 1st 2 rows

2

Comments

  • nfanelnfanel Posts: 2,558
    chromiam wrote:
    Even if you add, the probability decreases....


    nfanel- Yeah yeah Nova edumacation ;)
    Aments- I dropped out of Penn too :D
    and actually i dropped out of a statistics masters program.... so maybe i'm wrong. guess i should've stuck it out. :p this is starting to hurt my head, too. :D
  • nfanelnfanel Posts: 2,558
    You people are spending WAY too much time thinking about this. Don't get yourself so worked up thinking you might be in the first two rows, then be disappointed when you're not.

    It's all PJ, it's all good.

    Hope to see a lot of you at the Camden shows, especially my blood brother and sister

    you know who you are :D
    yes, we are. and i am done thinking for the day.
    i will see you there! :)
  • whistlewhistle Posts: 268
    I still think that no matter how many shows you go to your odds will stay the same. The probability of you getting the upgrade increases the more you go. But you need to take into account whether or not 10C keeps track of the 'winners' if they do not then in theory the same ppl could get the upgrade twice in a row. The chances of this are slim... (look at the coin flipping ex. above) but still possible.

    Im only going to 1 show this tour so i have a 10% chance, so the probability would not really matter. But for someone going to 10 shows they 'should' get it once, but since the events are independent only your probability increases
    http://www.expressobeans.com/trader.php?id=whistle55&view=4

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  • lukin137lukin137 Posts: 19
    well if it is truly a ten percent chance..for each show..(and that it is what i was trying to figure out in the first place) then like someone commented earlier..that is much better than my previous 0% so lets all hope 4 the best people..n i cant friggin wait to find out.i'll be like a kid on christmas mornin openin that envelope if i see the bran new bike ...... i wont be able to contain myself.......and if it is clothes..dissappointed.yes.but i'll realize soon that the clothes aint too bad either
  • ECMECM Posts: 1,687
    I give up..... you girls have fun with it
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  • whistlewhistle Posts: 268
    I give up..... you girls have fun with it

    hahah didnt you start all this mess??? :p
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  • cbbjrcbbjr Posts: 238
    chromiam wrote:
    Even if you add, the probability decreases....

    I wasn't a math major, but how do you figure? If there is a 9% chance and you add .9+.9+.9 it increases. If you go to three shows, the odds that you will be in the first two rows for any given show remain the same, the odds that you will be in the first two rows for one of the shows increase, and the odds that you will be in the first two rows for all shows decrease.
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  • ECMECM Posts: 1,687
    whistle wrote:
    hahah didnt you start all this mess??? :p

    I was kind of enough to make a guestimation for the guy who started the thread....

    I should have used the word "probability" over "odds"....
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  • nfanelnfanel Posts: 2,558
    lukin137 wrote:
    well if it is truly a ten percent chance..for each show..(and that it is what i was trying to figure out in the first place) then like someone commented earlier..that is much better than my previous 0% so lets all hope 4 the best people..n i cant friggin wait to find out.i'll be like a kid on christmas mornin openin that envelope if i see the bran new bike ...... i wont be able to contain myself.......and if it is clothes..dissappointed.yes.but i'll realize soon that the clothes aint too bad either
    lol. great analogy.
  • whistlewhistle Posts: 268

    I should have used the word "probability" over "odds"....

    Yeah i think that is what has ppl confused... Odds are constant, probability changes in the case...
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  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    lukin137 wrote:
    well if it is truly a ten percent chance..for each show..(and that it is what i was trying to figure out in the first place) then like someone commented earlier..that is much better than my previous 0% so lets all hope 4 the best people..n i cant friggin wait to find out.i'll be like a kid on christmas mornin openin that envelope if i see the bran new bike ...... i wont be able to contain myself.......and if it is clothes..dissappointed.yes.but i'll realize soon that the clothes aint too bad either

    Without knowing seating plans for venues, I would say there's a 9-10 percent chance at arena shows and a 6-8 percent chance at amphitheatres. Amphitheaters also have more season ticket holders than arenas and as I said before less seats in the first two rows. I think at least part of if not most of Row 2 in Mansfield is season ticket holders. So I'm not even sure how that will factor into the lottery.

    Check the seating map for premium seats to see what I mean for Mansfield:

    http://www.livenation.com/venue/getVenue/venueId/479
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • AmentsChickAmentsChick Posts: 6,969
    What I really want to know is...how many of you have pocket protectors?? Honestly.
    This is the greatest band in the world -- Ben Harper

  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    What I really want to know is...how many of you have pocket protectors?? Honestly.

    I think I've told you this several times before, but I'm a pretty dorky nerd and math fascinates me which is part of the reason I'm switching jobs in a few months.

    I still liked how I was co-captain of the football team in high school and captain of the mathletes at the same time. ;)
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • AmentsChickAmentsChick Posts: 6,969
    Solat13 wrote:
    I think I've told you this several times before, but I'm a pretty dorky nerd and math fascinates me which is part of the reason I'm switching jobs in a few months.

    I still liked how I was co-captain of the football team in high school and captain of the mathletes at the same time. ;)

    And quite humble as well. :rolleyes:
    This is the greatest band in the world -- Ben Harper

  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    And quite humble as well. :rolleyes:

    You should ask colorsblend about that when she gets back from her Australian odyssey ... lol.

    She'll get a kick out of that question. ;)
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • AmentsChickAmentsChick Posts: 6,969
    Solat13 wrote:
    You should ask colorsblend about that when she gets back from her Australian odyssey ... lol.

    She'll get a kick out of that question. ;)

    Why? Would she agree?
    This is the greatest band in the world -- Ben Harper

  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    Why? Would she agree?

    She most certainly would lol. I kind of come off that way over the internet unintentionally, but in person I'm very self deprecating. I just get very excited telling stories online and trying to be right, but in person I'm pretty shy.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
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    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • nfanelnfanel Posts: 2,558
    What I really want to know is...how many of you have pocket protectors?? Honestly.
    is that not cool or something?? :confused:
  • AmentsChickAmentsChick Posts: 6,969
    Solat13 wrote:
    She most certainly would lol. I kind of come off that way over the internet unintentionally, but in person I'm very self deprecating. I just get very excited telling stories online and trying to be right.

    I noticed. I'm not a fan of arrogance.
    This is the greatest band in the world -- Ben Harper

  • AmentsChickAmentsChick Posts: 6,969
    nfanel wrote:
    is that not cool or something?? :confused:

    On you, I'm sure they would be adorable...on anyone else...not cool at all. :cool:
    This is the greatest band in the world -- Ben Harper

  • JammerJammer Posts: 85
    You people are spending WAY too much time thinking about this. Don't get yourself so worked up thinking you might be in the first two rows, then be disappointed when you're not.

    It's all PJ, it's all good.

    Hope to see a lot of you at the Camden shows, especially my blood brother and sister

    you know who you are :D

    Not to burst anyone's bubble.The flip side of a getting better seats is getting pushed back; Someone with a higher number gets a front seat, and the person that would normally be there bumps eveyone else back. I agree with you. We are there and it's Pearl Jam. We will all find out when we get there. I do however appreciate the time "Evil Closet Monkey" took to figure this out!!
  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    OK, flip that coin ten times..... what are the odds of that landing on heads all 10 times? Pretty slim.... same applies to people going to multiple shows, but I know the odds are not 50/50.... 91/9, 95/5... whatever... similar concept

    Again, there is a formula to calulate this... I have a feeling you won't let it go, so I'll look it up later.....

    ... and word "probability" should have been used over "odds"

    Here's the thing, the odds only change because of the amount of rewards (pairs in rows 1,2, 9 and 10) and number of entries into the lottery (total pairs sold.)

    The fact that you enter into a lottery more often does not change your odds.

    If I play my lucky number 013 everyday for a year. My odds of winning are still 1/1000 every single day and they do not increase because of frequency of entry.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
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    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
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    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • PatrickBatemanPatrickBateman Posts: 2,243
    lukin137 wrote:
    alright were are the mathmaticians........i need odds people......the closest i got was 6th row in 2000 at tweeter( those werent even from the ten club either) still tryn to figure that out.......actually 96 in maine was general admission and i was able to force my way up pretty close. that was sweet. k back to topic..... what r my chances 1 n a thousand.hope i get lucky

    Guess what number between 1 and 1,000 that I am thinking of..........
    If a man speaks in a forest and there is no woman around to hear him, is he still wrong?
  • lukin137lukin137 Posts: 19
    Guess what number between 1 and 1,000 that I am thinking of..........
    that is too friggin funny.....how many guesses do i get
  • PureandEasyPureandEasy Posts: 5,800
    What I really want to know is...how many of you have pocket protectors?? Honestly.


    hahaha, that is TRULY one of the funniest things I have ever read on any PJ board EVER. Awesome :):)

    I know Solat personally and he's a very cool dude. And my blood brother :)

    but CRACK ME UP :)
  • chromiamchromiam Posts: 4,114
    I don't own a pocket protector... :)

    but I do get to work with chemicals :D
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  • PatrickBatemanPatrickBateman Posts: 2,243
    lukin137 wrote:
    that is too friggin funny.....how many guesses do i get
    2....but i can't tell you if you are correct until june 27th
    If a man speaks in a forest and there is no woman around to hear him, is he still wrong?
  • AmentsChickAmentsChick Posts: 6,969
    hahaha, that is TRULY one of the funniest things I have ever read on any PJ board EVER. Awesome :):)

    I know Solat personally and he's a very cool dude. And my blood brother :)

    but CRACK ME UP :)

    Why thank you. I crack myself up sometimes, too.
    This is the greatest band in the world -- Ben Harper

  • AmentsChickAmentsChick Posts: 6,969
    chromiam wrote:
    I don't own a pocket protector... :)

    but I do get to work with chemicals :D

    LOL! Beakers are SUCH a turn-on. LOL :p
    This is the greatest band in the world -- Ben Harper

  • mookieblalockmookieblalock Posts: 3,283
    cbbjr wrote:
    I wasn't a math major, but how do you figure? If there is a 9% chance and you add .9+.9+.9 it increases. If you go to three shows, the odds that you will be in the first two rows for any given show remain the same, the odds that you will be in the first two rows for one of the shows increase, and the odds that you will be in the first two rows for all shows decrease.


    By your logic, if you go to 11 shows you have a 100% chance of sitting in rows 1-2, 9-10...
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