so what r the chances of gettn in the 1st 2 rows

lukin137

alright were are the mathmaticians........i need odds people......the closest i got was 6th row in 2000 at tweeter( those werent even from the ten club either) still tryn to figure that out.......actually 96 in maine was general admission and i was able to force my way up pretty close. that was sweet. k back to topic..... what r my chances 1 n a thousand.hope i get lucky

ECM

this might give everyone a general idea.... fun with math!!!!

MSG capacity - about 20,000 seats
10% fan club tickets (if that's what the 10C got) - about 2,000

2000 tickets = 1000 pairs

approx 42 seats in a row?

Odds of front row pair: 2.1%
Odds of second row pair: 2.1%

Then subtract out the rows 1 and 2 and 3rd to 8th row (these are based off of senority) = 336 seats

Remaining seats after 8 rows of distribution = 1664 seats = 832 pairs

Now:

Odds of 9th row pair: 2.5%
Odds of 10th row pair: 2.5%

So really if the 10% TM fan club rule applies, and you normally do not get better than row 10, you are looking at 9.2% chance of an upgrade....

Go to more shows and your odds will go up.....

lukin137

nice man thats what im talkin bout that was quick too......9.2 percent aint bad sounds like 1 n 11 or so i can deal w those odds.goin to 3 shows.. well thats if second mansfield goes off...thx brother im gettn pumped

Solat13

Evil Closet Monkey wrote:

Go to more shows and your odds will go up.....

Actually they won't. Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.

chromiam

Solat13 wrote:

Actually they won't. Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.

Ahhh that good ole Penn education comes in handy... even I know this

whistle

Evil Closet Monkey wrote:

this might give everyone a general idea.... fun with math!!!!

MSG capacity - about 20,000 seats
10% fan club tickets (if that's what the 10C got) - about 2,000

2000 tickets = 1000 pairs

approx 42 seats in a row?

Odds of front row pair: 2.1%
Odds of second row pair: 2.1%

Then subtract out the rows 1 and 2 and 3rd to 8th row (these are based off of senority) = 336 seats

Remaining seats after 8 rows of distribution = 1664 seats = 832 pairs

Now:

Odds of 9th row pair: 2.5%
Odds of 10th row pair: 2.5%

So really if the 10% TM fan club rule applies, and you normally do not get better than row 10, you are looking at 9.2% chance of an upgrade....

Go to more shows and your odds will go up.....

Kind of... thats a little misleading. Each concert is independent of each other so you'll always have 10% chance. Similar to roulette... the you spin the wheel more the more chances you'll have to hit your number but the odds of hitting that number will always be 1:38.
Unless of course 10C keeps track of the ppl who win the upgrades... then your chances will slightly get better each concert you attend.

whistle

Solat13 wrote:

Actually they won't. Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.

hahahah i took too long to write mine! hahah

you must gamble also

Solat13

whistle wrote:

hahahah i took too long to write mine! hahah

you must gamble also

Yep, I've been known to play some roulette in my day though I haven't since Vegas in 06.

lukin137

if you flip a quarter one time your odds on that particular flip is 50/50........is it safe to say if you flip the same quarter 3x.........u increase your chances that just one of those times will come in your favor.i think so.....or so i hope

patrickredeyes

I think it's great they switch it up like this. It's about time for some change, which is always good.

chromiam

lukin137 wrote:

if you flip a quarter one time your odds on that particular flip is 50/50........is it safe to say if you flip the same quarter 3x.........u increase your chances that just one of those times will come in your favor.i think so.....or so i hope

no matter how many times you flip the coin, the chances are 50/50 that a particular side will land face up.

ECM

Solat13 wrote:

Actually they won't. Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.

grr Joe.... you are going to make me look up that formula.... thanks

Solat13

Evil Closet Monkey wrote:

grr Joe.... you are going to make me look up that formula.... thanks

Like Mike said, sometimes that Penn education comes in handy.

Stephen Flow

now what would be interesting is if you already get pulled for 1st or 2nd row you get taken out of the lottery for the other shows your attending to give other people a shot at it.

whistle

Solat13 wrote:

Yep, I've been known to play some roulette in my day though I haven't since Vegas in 06.

I was just in Vegas a month ago! What a wild place! Mostly played cards at Bellagio though... hit the town one night pretty hard though!

lukin137

Stephen Flow wrote:

now what would be interesting is if you already get pulled for 1st or 2nd row you get taken out of the lottery for the other shows your attending to give other people a shot at it.

ya they should definitely do that ........ne thin to increase my chances would be appreciated 10c

Great White North

Solat13 wrote:

Actually they won't. Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.

the odds may not change but the likelihood will.

ECM

chromiam wrote:

no matter how many times you flip the coin, the chances are 50/50 that a particular side will land face up.

OK, flip that coin ten times..... what are the odds of that landing on heads all 10 times? Pretty slim.... same applies to people going to multiple shows, but I know the odds are not 50/50.... 91/9, 95/5... whatever... similar concept

Again, there is a formula to calulate this... I have a feeling you won't let it go, so I'll look it up later.....

... and word "probability" should have been used over "odds"

chromiam

Evil Closet Monkey wrote:

OK, flip that coin ten times..... what are the odds of that landing on heads all 10 times? Pretty slim.... same applies to people going to multiple shows, but I know the odds are not 50/50.... 91/9, 95/5... whatever... similar concept

Again, there is a formula to calulate this... I have a feeling you won't let it go, so I'll look it up later.....

agreed but the more you flip the coin the more likely that it will land 50% of the time heads and 50% of the time tails. Each flip (show) is independent of each other and previous flips do not effect present and future flips.

lukin137

Evil Closet Monkey wrote:

OK, flip that coin ten times..... what are the odds of that landing on heads all 10 times? Pretty slim.... same applies to people going to multiple shows, but I know the odds are not 50/50.... 91/9, 95/5... whatever... similar concept

Again, there is a formula to calulate this... I have a feeling you won't let it go, so I'll look it up later.....

thats exactly what i was tryin to say but u said it much better.......each individual flip is always the same odds but do it enough and def sooner or later it will come in your favor

whistle

Evil Closet Monkey wrote:

OK, flip that coin ten times..... what are the odds of that landing on heads all 10 times? Pretty slim.... same applies to people going to multiple shows, but I know the odds are not 50/50.... 91/9, 95/5... whatever... similar concept

Again, there is a formula to calulate this... I have a feeling you won't let it go, so I'll look it up later.....

... and word "probability" should have been used over "odds"

Who would of thought the message board would turn into a statistics class! hahha

cbbjr

Solat13 wrote:

Actually they won't. Each show is an independent entity unto its own. Sort of how your odds of spinning one particular number on a roulette wheel are always the same.

But your odds do very slightly decrease and increase due to the number of seats allocated to each venue through presales.

But the idea that going to more shows increases your odds is not true.

But while the odds for each individual show don't change, other than the number of seats allocated to each venue as you mention, doesn't the probability that you will be selected at least once increase? Isn't the probability of two independent events calculated as P(a) + P(b)? So if there is on average, based on number of seats in a row and ticket pairs per venue, a 9% chance you are in the first two rows for any given show, if you go to three shows isn't the probability of sitting in the first two rows once .09+.09+.09 = 27%?

It has been many years since my last statistics class so I could be completely wrong, but I thought while the odds that you get in the first two rows for any given show are relatively constant, the odds that you do it once increases with the number of shows you attend.

Either way, this is the best thread I have read in a while.

nfanel

the odds increase.

example:
The probability of two mutually exclusive events (events where the outcome of the first does not affect the outcome of the second) occurring two times in a row is calculated by multiplying the probability of the first happening by the probability of the second. Take a coin toss for example. The probability of flipping a coin and getting heads once is 1/2. The probability of flipping a coin the second time and getting heads is also 1/2. Now the probability of getting heads twice in a row is 1/2 x 1/2 or 1/4. This statistical law can be used in the same way to calculate the probability or odds of flipping a coin multiple times.

Example
Q. What are the odds of flipping a coin multiple times and getting heads 5 times in a row?

A. We use the probability of getting heads once which is 1/2 and multiply it 5 times to get the solution.

1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/32 or 3.125%


so the odds of not ever getting first or second row actually goes down with each show you add since you're multiplying by the odds. in this case you're looking for the odds of not getting first or second row at multiple shows.

looks like that villanova education actually came in handier.

pjsteelerfan

Even still, I will take my 10% now chance over my old 0% chance any day.

cbbjr

nfanel wrote:

the odds increase.

example:
The probability of two mutually exclusive events (events where the outcome of the first does not affect the outcome of the second) occurring two times in a row is calculated by multiplying the probability of the first happening by the probability of the second. Take a coin toss for example. The probability of flipping a coin and getting heads once is 1/2. The probability of flipping a coin the second time and getting heads is also 1/2. Now the probability of getting heads twice in a row is 1/2 x 1/2 or 1/4. This statistical law can be used in the same way to calculate the probability or odds of flipping a coin multiple times.

Example
Q. What are the odds of flipping a coin multiple times and getting heads 5 times in a row?

A. We use the probability of getting heads once which is 1/2 and multiply it 5 times to get the solution.

1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/32 or 3.125%


so the odds of not ever getting first or second row actually goes down with each show you add since you're multiplying by the odds. in this case you're looking for the odds of not getting first or second row at multiple shows.

looks like that villanova education actually came in handier.

When calculating independent probability, don't you add, not multiply? Don't blame me if I am wrong, I am a product of public schools.

nfanel

cbbjr wrote:

When calculating independent probability, don't you add, not multiply? Don't blame me if I am wrong, I am a product of public schools.

nope, you multiply:
To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities. This multiplication rule is defined symbolically below. Note that multiplication is represented by AND.

Multiplication Rule 1: When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of both occurring is:
P(A and = P(A) · P(B)

Experiment 1: A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks of each of the following colors: blue, brown, red, white and black. Each pair is folded together in matching pairs. You reach into the sock drawer and choose a pair of socks without looking. The first pair you pull out is red -the wrong color. You replace this pair and choose another pair. What is the probability that you will choose the red pair of socks twice?
Probabilities: P(red) = 1/5
P(red and red) = P(red) · P(red) = 1/5 · 1/5 = 1/25

AmentsChick

This thread gives me a migraine. What do you expect, though, I'm an SDSU dropout. :(

chromiam

cbbjr wrote:

When calculating independent probability, don't you add, not multiply? Don't blame me if I am wrong, I am a product of public schools.

Even if you add, the probability decreases....


nfanel- Yeah yeah Nova edumacation
Aments- I dropped out of Penn too

cbbjr

nfanel wrote:

nope, you multiply:
To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities. This multiplication rule is defined symbolically below. Note that multiplication is represented by AND.

Multiplication Rule 1: When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of both occurring is:
P(A and = P(A) · P(B)

Experiment 1: A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks of each of the following colors: blue, brown, red, white and black. Each pair is folded together in matching pairs. You reach into the sock drawer and choose a pair of socks without looking. The first pair you pull out is red -the wrong color. You replace this pair and choose another pair. What is the probability that you will choose the red pair of socks twice?
Probabilities: P(red) = 1/5
P(red and red) = P(red) · P(red) = 1/5 · 1/5 = 1/25

But isn't the question what is the probability that you will get in the first two rows ONCE? Your formula works for getting in the first two rows each time.

Solat13

Here's the thing. The odds will actually be greater for MSG and any other arena shows than they will be for Camden and Mansfield and other amphitheatre.

The rows in arenas for the most part are the same length as any other row. The rows in amphitheaters start with the smallest rows (Rows 1 and 2) and get wider and wider.

Unless you know the actual number of seats in each row like we do in MSG, this question is just impossible to answer. In Camden Row 1 is like half the size of Row 3. I sat in Row 2 in Camden for night one of 2006 on Mike's side and there was nothing but stage in front of me. (About 5-10 feet to my right were the three guys who Ed brought on stage that night that were released by the Innocence Project .)

PureandEasy

You people are spending WAY too much time thinking about this. Don't get yourself so worked up thinking you might be in the first two rows, then be disappointed when you're not.

It's all PJ, it's all good.

Hope to see a lot of you at the Camden shows, especially my blood brother and sister

you know who you are