The Electoral thread
jimed14
Posts: 9,488
Hoping to keep this thread about views on how the electoral count will break ...
No toss ups ... appears to be in Obama's favor ... but it's a razor thin lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
There are a lot of toss up states ...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
Saw the first poll yesterday with Obama having a LEAD in Florida ... seems like that would be a deal breaker, can't see McCain winning if he loses Florida (Obama is there again today, they are pushing that state hard).
If Obama gets all the Kerry states, tacks on Iowa and New Mexico (which are leaning heavy to Obama) ... he'd only need to scoop one more state ... Colorado anyone?
Long way to go ... but, might as well start discussing it ...
Anyone for a 269 - 269 tie, certainly a possibility ... where, I believe, there actually is an (extremely unlikely) chance for an Obama - Palin administration ... ha!
No toss ups ... appears to be in Obama's favor ... but it's a razor thin lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
There are a lot of toss up states ...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
Saw the first poll yesterday with Obama having a LEAD in Florida ... seems like that would be a deal breaker, can't see McCain winning if he loses Florida (Obama is there again today, they are pushing that state hard).
If Obama gets all the Kerry states, tacks on Iowa and New Mexico (which are leaning heavy to Obama) ... he'd only need to scoop one more state ... Colorado anyone?
Long way to go ... but, might as well start discussing it ...
Anyone for a 269 - 269 tie, certainly a possibility ... where, I believe, there actually is an (extremely unlikely) chance for an Obama - Palin administration ... ha!
"You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments
I've seen maps where you can click on states and it calculates the electoral votes for each candidate - anyone have a link for any of those? (edit: sorry I just saw that you can do that on the links above)
was like a picture
of a sunny day
“We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.”
― Abraham Lincoln
if you go to the second link I provided above ... click on a state, it will allow you to change who gets the state.
You can also start form scratch using "create your own map" ....
If Obama wins 2 of the 3 you mention, he'll win ... but, he could win with just Pennsylvania.
Obama needs to hold onto Pennsylvania and Michigan ... if he looses either of those, I think that spells doom for him.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
Yes, Obama has a couple of reasonable scenarios that could work... McCain's future for the most part depends on Florida, or he will have to pretty much run a sweep on the battleground states.
was like a picture
of a sunny day
“We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.”
― Abraham Lincoln
Right now, Obama is looking pretty good there.
If Obama were to steal Colorado (given that he's already got former Bush states New MExico and Iowa in the bag), it's going to leave McCain needing to steal one back.
I think Pennsylvania is in play, especially after Biden's "coal sucks" comment from the other day. (Of course, this implies someone in the media actually cares what Biden has to say).
There have been polls that show McCain within striking distance in Michigan, Minnesota and maybe Wisconsin ... which of course, would completely change the map were he to win even one of those ... but I couldn't really see it happening.
Also ... McCain appears to be holding on to a razor thin margin in Virginia as well. If he loses that state, he's pretty much fucked I think.
Bottom line, if the election were today, I think Obama would win, and probably by a fairly comfortable electoral margin.
As we've seen recently, however, this race really has a way of reversing course in a matter of weeks. So, I guess we all shall see ...
EDIT: This is a good idea for a thread. A lot of times, I prefer this kind of thread to a "my candidate rules, your candidate sucks" kind of thing.
for the least they could possibly do
I don't think this is neccesarily true. There are plenty of plausible scenarios in which Obama can win by just taking one of the three (Pennsylvania).
McCain, meanwhile, almost certainly will lose unless he takes at least two of three (most likely Ohio and Fla).
for the least they could possibly do
North Carolina? Bush won this state, twice, by 12 points.
I'd think McCain NEEDS the debates if hopes to change the momentum at all ...
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html#/president-nprOvM/
the ones I linked above, they show all the 2000 and 2004 (and prior) data ...
The think I like about the ones I linked, if you click on an individual state, you can drill down to the polls that have been taken for that state.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
sorry about that. i was just looking for some info and i stumbled upon the npr link.
double post.
like I said in the initial post, that would actually present a possibility of an Obama - Palin admisitration!
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
sure is
*bangs head on wall*
Missouri .... into toss up status ...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
Not a state Obama needs ... nor should spend too much time on.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
A sure sign of the apocalypse!
for the least they could possibly do
I don't really see anyway McCain loses Missouri ... but ... there's no question, on the whole, he's in real danger of falling out of contention in the overall race.
Honestly (and, sadly, IMO), I don't really see any way McCain wins this election.
That is, barring some major Obama-Biden goof that the press won't cover anyway
for the least they could possibly do
there are 38 days to the election .... that's, what? 1,000,000,000,000,000 media cycles?
there's plenty of time left for ANHYTHING to happen.
I'm a die hard Red Sox fan ... I don't believe anything is won or lost until the final out is recorded ... (which, includes lawsuits and other post Nov 4th fireworks)
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
I'm a Cubs fan ... which pretty much means McCain is screwed
for the least they could possibly do
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html
pushing Virginia in the the "no toss up" map to Obama ...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
Virginia would be a nice get for the Obamanauts.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
He's spent some time there recently ... looks like it's paying off.
Still some debates left, so much can happen in 30 days.
I fully expect the Fox news lies and spin to go into full swing soon ... you can see how scared they are .... Hannity is in overdrive already ... and now they've launched a show hosted by Mike Huckabee? Yeah, that's "fair and balanced".
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
Obama wins Penn and Michigan while McCain gets Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia as well as Indiana and Missouri. McCain would still be down, and I think his best bet would either be New Mexico (where some polls have him closer than others) or New Hampshire. If he gets NM (or a state with 5 or more electoral votes) he wins by a hair. If he doesn't get one of those but does get NH (where Obama's only up by about 1 and a half points), he'd tie and I forget what happens then. I think if there's a battleground state it surprisingly could be New Hampshire.
However, if McCain can't hold North Carolina AND Virginia I don't see how this can happen for him. In fact, if he doesn't hold onto those I'd predict that Obama/Biden will break 300 electoral votes for the first time since Clinton's re-election in 96.
Still, this is all relatively meaningless...there are more unknown factors in this race than most in recent history. Will the young vote finally come out for the Democrat? How many of Obama's new voters from the primary process will come out on Election Day? How many people will not vote for Obama cause he's black? How many will? All of these things, and none of them are really easily measurable right now.
Oh man, I'm hoping and praying that if Obama wins, Hannity and Colmes have a new show the next night. I'm rarely vindictive, but it'd be nice to see that pompous asshole squirming in his seat for an hour.
agree with the fact we are still a LONG way away from the end ... I just have a feeling there's something one of those McCain supporting 527s has up it's sleeve ... remember the mysterious claim that someone had a tape of Michelle Obama using the term "whitey"? ... I'm not saying that's it ... I'm just saying, there are simply far too many days left, and it wouldn't take a ton to flip the scale and get momentum back to McCain.
I will say, I disagre about New Mexico ...
The great thing about this site I link, is that you can drill down into the states ... the last 3 or 4 polls have a healthy lead for Obama http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nm/new_mexico_mccain_vs_obama-448.html ... and Bill Richardson has good pull for Obama there, and I think is helping out a lot in getting the Latino vote for Obama ... (something I worried about as the Latino community *loves* the Clintons).
For McCain to win, I really think he needs to look at the Bush v Kerry map ... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=11 and assume Iowa and New Mexico are lost ... this means he cannot lose ANY of Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina or Virginia ... which, I don't think Obama has any sort of strangle hold on. With this, he'd need to either win Colorado and win ... or lose Colorado and win New Hampshire to tie.
I just don't see Michigan, Pennsylvania (Biden influence there), Minnesota or Wisconsin going McCain ...
In case fo a tie ... House votes for the President and the Senate votes for the VP ... meaning, Obama would be the President (enough of a majority there) and while most likely, the Senate would go Biden, there's a chance it could go 50 (50 dems) -50 (48 reps and 2 indys), and then, Chaney has the tie break vote, he could select Palin ... making it an Obama Palin administration ... VERY outside chance ... but, an interesting footnote.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
Yeah, I use realclearpolitics as well. I suppose it will probably come down to either Colorado or New Mexico then...I should've included them both. Obama has leads in both, but they are surrounded by red states and are at least near Arizona. I'd say if Obama's weak anywhere, it might be these states. You've made it clear that McCain cannot go for a tie, because it will mean an Obama presidency. He also has to hold Virginia and North Carolina. If he loses those two and even manages to pick up something as far out as Pennsylvania, McCain will still lose. That's how important those two states are.
Should McCain be able to hold onto Virginia and NC, it's still going to be difficult. Unlike two or three weeks ago, where it looked like Obama had to fight to even break even in the Electoral Count, it now looks, at least for the moment, like the numbers for McCain are just not there. Obviously, this can and probably will change. First thing McCain has to do right now is damage control and push some more money into VA and NC. He probably cannot win without both those states (that is to say, he would have to win a state as large as PA before McCain could afford to lose either VA or NC). And then gun for Colorado, or maybe even PA, for I believe McCain is closer in the polls in PA than Colorado. Still, if it stays like this McCain may have to count on people having second thoughts about Obama come election time.
In the no toss up map ... Ohio and Florida now move to Obama? (Meaning, a few of the last polls, while close, have actually favored Obama)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
again, it's closer than it looks (many states still under the margin of error) and there are 3 debates and underhanded tactics yet to be revealed, but ... could this thing turn into a landslide?
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
I don't know, it feels like the horror movie when you're walking down the hallway, and you're just waiting for the knife-wielding gaffe or 527 to jump out of the shadows.
Also, I'm hoping to do some PA volunteering/canvassing, although I live in NYC. Is anyone here working for Obama in PA, know someone I could get a hold of? PM me if you do, thanks. Hoping to find some contacts, although it's still iffy (having no money can quickly demolish volunteer plans).
you can go to Obama's website ... http://action.barackobama.com/page/s/newvolunteer
they have plans with getting the vote out in certian states ... I've been getting e-mails to volunteer in Nevada ... (California "Drive for Change") ... I assume they'd have a similar programs set up for Pennsylvania ...
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
was like a picture
of a sunny day
“We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.”
― Abraham Lincoln
all the quinnipiac polls seem to be heavily in favor of Obama ... not sure I trust them so much ... they seem to be outliers.
"I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez