The Electoral thread

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  • slightofjeffslightofjeff Posts: 7,762
    jimed14 wrote:
    all the quinnipiac polls seem to be heavily in favor of Obama ... not sure I trust them so much ... they seem to be outliers.

    Those quin polls do seem awfully fishy ... however, there's no doubt McCain is getting his clock cleaned right now. even if those polls are wrong, they are wrong only in the margin.
    everybody wants the most they can possibly get
    for the least they could possibly do
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    New polls all show Obama leading in New Hampshire by quite a bit, enough to call it "lean Obama" now ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_mccain_vs_obama-195.html

    this means on the map with toss ups ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

    ... McCain has to win EVERY toss up state remaining ... or else, he loses (even if OBama only won Nevada, it would be a tie and Obama would win)

    McCain has also pulled out of Michigan ... he really could have helped himself if he could have won just one state that voted DEM in 2004, but it looks like he's going on the defense to only protect the remaining states that voted REP in 2004 (NC, VA, OH, NV, IN, MO) ... really hurts his options if you ask me ...

    McCain's only good news, Colorado tighted up a bit.
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • JSBEJSBE Posts: 1,078
    No Toss Ups: Obama 353, McCain 185

    wow. and yes, i realize that there are 32 days until the election.
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    JSBE wrote:
    No Toss Ups: Obama 353, McCain 185

    wow. and yes, i realize that there are 32 days until the election.

    no toss ups - Obama 364 - McCain - 174

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

    Missouri moves to Obama ...

    Other moves ... New Hampshire got away from McCain real quickly, it was close not long ago, but the last 4 polls out of NH have Obama up by double digits on average. And so much for Minnesota, last two polls have been Obama +14 and +18 ...

    No wonder the message out of the McCain camp has become a mudfest.
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • jimed14 wrote:
    no toss ups - Obama 364 - McCain - 174

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

    Missouri moves to Obama ...

    Other moves ... New Hampshire got away from McCain real quickly, it was close not long ago, but the last 4 polls out of NH have Obama up by double digits on average. And so much for Minnesota, last two polls have been Obama +14 and +18 ...

    No wonder the message out of the McCain camp has become a mudfest.

    If McCain is losing Missouri polls, then you know it's getting bad.

    If somehow it would end up like the "no toss up" map, maybe Palin can adjust her stump speech for 2012 to bash the Northeast elites, the Mid-West elites, the Atlantic Seaboard elites, the Southwest elites, the Northwest elites, and the West Coast Hollywood types.

    I can't see this mudfest working, they (McCain) needs some big game changer to pull this off.
    My whole life
    was like a picture
    of a sunny day
    “We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.”
    ― Abraham Lincoln
  • digsterdigster Posts: 1,293
    Hm. It's starting to look quite difficult for McCain. Using that realclear map with no toss-ups, I still think that Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are definite McCain wins. I know the polls say otherwise but judging from past elections, the electorate in those states, and the continuing concerns about Obama's experience, I think they will end up for McCain. However, if McCain has to work to defend those states that's less money and manpower they have to play offense. I think that's why they staged a pullout in Michigan; they don't have the money to play all the states the way Obama does.

    So let's say Obama loses NC, VA and FL. He's still 80 electoral points ahead of McCain, and almost forty ahead of that magic 270 number that ensures an electoral win. Now, with that map in mind, Obama is in a very good spot. He can afford to lose Ohio (which I think will happen). He can afford to also lose Missouri (which I also think will happen). Obama can also afford to lose two out of the three southwestern states (Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada) that he's ahead in right now. Even if you take away those flip-flopping states of FL, VA and NC Obama can still afford to lose one big state (whether Ohio or PA) and several small to mid-sized states and get a win. As the map including toss-up states stands now, McCain would have to win every single toss-up states as well as grab a small state or two that are leaning towards Obama.

    For Obama, the main thing for them is that they cannot lose Pennsylvania, or I should say that they cannot lose PA and Ohio. They can absorb losses in VA, NC, and Florida and still get there on smaller states, but they need one of those two states to stay in their corner. I think Joe Biden needs to park himself in those two states and make sure that at least one of them goes blue on Election day.

    As for McCain, they need to keep the states they have, but I think they also have to start hoping that the economy does not continue to be the main issue every day (and considering how this is going, I found it doubtful that voters will stop being concerned about it). The only way their character assassination crap will work is if the front page stops being about the economy every day.
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    Well, there's finally good news for McCain!

    In the no toss up map. Missouri is back in McCain's column ... (still no poll has either up by more than 3)

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10


    The bad news ... in the toss up map,

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

    Virginia has moved into lean Obama (6 of the last 7 polls have Obama up, several by double digits)

    West Vrginia moved to toss up (I'll beleive that when I see it though)

    Still 25 days left, ANYTHING can happen, but seeing all that blue on the map has to make Acustic Guy cry like a little baby.
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • JSBEJSBE Posts: 1,078
    the fact that ohio, florida, nevada, north carolina, colorado and virginia are all states that bush won in 2000 and 2004 are currently leaning obama...well, that's not good right now for mccain/palin (obviously).

    but as stated, there are 25 days left and anything could happen.
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    JSBE wrote:
    the fact that ohio, florida, nevada, north carolina, colorado and virginia are all states that bush won in 2000 and 2004 are currently leaning obama...well, that's not good right now for mccain/palin (obviously).

    but as stated, there are 25 days left and anything could happen.

    a lot of them are really close though ... I still wonder if there is going to be a slander bomb dropped at some point ... I think if the McCain campaign had their "October surprise", they would have released it by now ... but, this hate speech is just making me a little uncertain of the strong lead.
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • I'm not comfortable in any polling numbers at this point.

    Between cell phone only/call screening people who don't get polled, the undependable youth vote and the whole race issue, I really have no faith in these polls other than to watch trends.
    My whole life
    was like a picture
    of a sunny day
    “We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.”
    ― Abraham Lincoln
  • JSBEJSBE Posts: 1,078
    jimed14 wrote:
    a lot of them are really close though ... I still wonder if there is going to be a slander bomb dropped at some point ... I think if the McCain campaign had their "October surprise", they would have released it by now ... but, this hate speech is just making me a little uncertain of the strong lead.

    i think that the picture will get a little clearer after next wednesday night, esp if mccain decides to just go all the way into the mud and bring up ayers, et al during the debate. i just think (or at least i hope) that people are more concerned about the issues than what mccain/palin is throwing out there (which is everything but the kitchen sink).

    then again, obama will have his 30 minutes of primetime less than a week before the elections.
  • great thread. It's amazing how much talk there is about popular vote polling when it means so little. Obama's up 2, them McCains up 4, then Obama's up 6. The state by state, electoral pollling is where it's at. What did Gore win the popular vote by, 3 million? lotta good that did him

    not sure if this was linked to yet....a baseball stat geek took his baseball knowledge and applied it to the election:

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    So, one of the sites the republican supporters always cite is this NewsMax site ...

    I see that republican jagoff Dick Morris has an electoral map on there, look how lopsided he's got this thing for Obama!

    http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?s=al&promo_code=6AB2-1

    I think he's sand bagging ... no way it's THIS lopsided right now.
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • KannKann Posts: 1,146
    anyone ever heard of this : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect? I saw an interview of a statistician on tv here saying that chances are the polls are pretty much inaccurate because of this effect and that making projections is almost impossible in this case.
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    Kann wrote:
    anyone ever heard of this : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect? I saw an interview of a statistician on tv here saying that chances are the polls are pretty much inaccurate because of this effect and that making projections is almost impossible in this case.

    the only thing about this is, Obama, for the most part (NH not included), didn't see this effect in the primaries ... but, indeed, it can't be ignored.

    I don't think anoyne in the Obama camp doens't know about this ... as I heard Michelle Obama state, they are going to "run through the tape" ...
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    The map that includes toss ups just moved a few states OUT of toss up ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

    Colorado and Florida - now "lean Obama" ... still, many states have such razor thin margins, this is far from over.

    (North Dakota from Solid McCain to lean McCain ... same with Georgia ... WTF is that about?)
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • JSBEJSBE Posts: 1,078
    jimed14 wrote:
    The map that includes toss ups just moved a few states OUT of toss up ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

    Colorado and Florida - now "lean Obama" ... still, many states have such razor thin margins, this is far from over.

    (North Dakota from Solid McCain to lean McCain ... same with Georgia ... WTF is that about?)

    again, all the states that bush won in 2004 and 2000 and obama is currently leading the in the polls. that and the fact that mccain/palin are stumping in states that haven't voted democrat in decades...it is just amazing.
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    Found this site tonight, very intersting ...

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/

    the cool part is the "This day in 2004" link on the righ hand side ...

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct15.html

    People were talking about Kerry being up late in '04 ... assume they ment on the national polls ..... But, on the electoral map at this time in 2004, Kerry was getting beat up by Bush at this time in 2004 ... I found that pretty intersting.


    edit ... damn ... by Oct 19 ... Kerry was winning ..

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct19.html

    then a week later, Bush had his lead back ...

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct26.html

    Nov 1, Kerry back on top ...

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html

    man, crazy!!
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    Only movements in the toss up map ...

    North Dakota moves to toss up ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

    One thing Obama needs to remember, he needs to concentrate on 270+ ... not 370+ ... (although 370+ would do a lot to calm the anti Obama folks, I think)

    Obama could screw himself is he tries to win all these states like North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri ... and come up short while he really could get Florida and end it there.

    No Toss up map is still Obama 364 - McCain 174

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

    People still need to vote ... these polls are based on so many young voters and new registrants ... so, again, Obama should only feel good when Nov 5th comes around. this is far form over.

    That said, McCain's winning options are dwindling fast though ... how can he win? He's playing so much defense in the Bush red states.
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • digsterdigster Posts: 1,293
    From my view, I'm not sure if Obama necessarily expects to win those states. He's probably committing time and resources there precisely so McCain is unable to concentrate on offense. And McCain simply put cannot win this race without a significant offensive push. From how I see it, McCain needs to sweep North Carolina, Virginia and Florida. He cannot and will not win without those two. He needs to win Ohio. He needs to stop the bleeding in Indiana. And that's not even getting him very close.

    And here's where it gets extremely tricky. He had some leads in Missouri, which he needs to regain. That will leave three Southwestern states; Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada. If he wins FL, VA, NC, IN, MO and can then win Colorado, he barely wins the election. If he wins the first five states and can win Nevada and New Mexico, he wins. So I think if he's going to play defense, it should be in Nevada, New Mexico, along with Ohio and Pennsylvania. Other than defending typically red states, I think that's where he needs to be. I don't see how he gets to 270; there are too many solidly blue states with double-digit leads. Barring race being an even more bigger factor than everyone thought, or buyer's remorse or something, what else can McCain do?

    Or as I've said before, if McCain can pull a rabbit out of a hat and can win something like Pennsylvania, it becomes far easier for him. But I doubt it.
  • JSBEJSBE Posts: 1,078
    http://www.economist.com/Vote2008/

    i thought this was interesting, if not a little predictable, although i didn't think the vote would be THAT tilted in obama's favor.
  • JSBEJSBE Posts: 1,078
    and i saw a map last night where mccain could win florida, ohio, pennsylvania, indiana and i believe missouri and still lose, although it would be by like 2 electoral votes. obviously it was contingent on obama winning certain states too. i think it was on countdown.
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    been a while since I updated this ... seeing as we had the other electoral thread .... so ... here's the dope ...

    One NBC poll shows Obama only up 4 in Pennsylvania ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html

    two others that came out today show Obama up 11 and 12 ... but, perhaps, just perhaps, McCain is making up ground in the keystone state?

    fivethirtyeight.com still has it at 98% Obama will win Pennsylvania, will be intersting to see if that changes tonight when they take these polls into consideration ... http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


    On the flipside ... looking at the toss up map ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

    places like North Dakota, Montana (where Ron Paul is on the ballot and stealing votes from McCain), and even GEORGIA are now toss ups ... Georgia, only low single digits for McCain ... really?

    I don't expect Obama to carry any of these states mentioned below, but, intersting to see them get so close.

    Still ... not a done deal.
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • JSBEJSBE Posts: 1,078
    i don't mean to keep beating a dead horse, but i just can't believe how many states that were won by bush in 2000 and 2004 by decent to large margins are now so close that they are toss-ups: north carolina, indiana, montana, georgia, virginia, colorado...

    and arizon is "leaning" mccain. how can that not be solid mccain? then again gore did lose his home state.

    and i agree jimed, not a done deal by any means.
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    Could this be the tightening everyone keeps talking about?

    First poll in a LONG time that has McCain UP in Ohio

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

    moves Ohio back to toss up ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5


    The folks over at fivethirtyeight.com still have this as a blow out with Obama averaging 344 electoral votes in their model ...

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

    They also hae a quick note about the Mason Dixon polls natural tendency to be 2-3 points higher for McCain than any other poll ... that's the one that shows McCain up 2 in Ohio.

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/house-effects-in-action.html


    I put this in a different thread, still my guess for Tuesday ...


    jimed14 wrote:
    Intersting that so many have Obama well over 300 in the electoral count.

    I've been watching this since mid September ... thread comments here ...

    http://forums.pearljam.com/showthread.php?t=304182

    I still think it's going to be a lot closer ... I'll go with

    Obama 291
    McCain 247

    In the end, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina all go back to McCain ... No matter how many polls I see out of Ohio, I won't ever believe it'll vote for Obama it until I see it ... Florida is more likely to vote for Obama in my opinion

    I feel it's going to be the Kerry 2004 map ...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=11

    with Obama adding New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia.

    Still, 7 days left, lots can happen ... Obama is betting heavily on the youth vote ... and they have come up short many times before, and there are still many undecideds, which, I bet, vote McCain.
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • g under pg under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,209
    I've got OBAMA 341...McCAIN 163 and I'm going to be exactly right. :)

    Peace
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    .....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

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