It's A Convention Fight Now Obama

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  • MasterFramer
    MasterFramer Posts: 2,268
    Solat13 wrote:
    I agree Obama should keep his lead, but I think he doesn't do too well in PA. Rendell (Gov) and Nutter (Philly mayor) are big Clinton supporters. I think Hillary should take the state pretty comfortably.

    She has a 4 point lead with 7 weeks to go... the hillbillies up north are not going to be able to stop Obama like Ohio. She sure as hell has no chance of winning with any sort of majority that nets her significant delegates.
    10.31.93 / 10.1.94 / 6.24.95 / 11.4.95 / 10.19-20.96 / 7.16.98 / 7.21.98 / 10.31.00 /8.4.01 Nader Rally/ 10.21.01 / 12.8-9.02 / 6.01.03 / 9.1.05 / 7.15-16,18.06 / 7.20.06 / 7.22-23.06 / Lolla 07
  • Hollyweird
    Hollyweird Posts: 197
    MasterFramer wrote:
    The only way Florida and Michigan seat delegates is they re-vote... there is no way she wins states by 65%. Wake up dude... she is just going to bleed a slow slow death if she takes this past Penn.

    You may be right, but why should she quit when it's possible to win? Because it will be easier for Obama? Fuck that. The guy clearly needs some seasoning and frankly if he can't take this heat he will be toast against the Republicans. Let the dude earn it and stop whining. Either one of these two can beat McCain because he will be easy to paint as the heir to GW and no one wants that. He isnt' unbeatable by any strech. As far as Michigan and Florida I think the Clintons would be in err if they try to make Michigan count as it. But if they were all on the ballot in Florida I dont see that as unfair. Well see but your in denial if you think this may go on to the convention. And it's not bad for the party. The Republicans are arrogant. I think the country is rivited right now by these two people and regardless who wins, this country, through this party, has taken us to a new level of discourse and we can all win.
  • Hollyweird
    Hollyweird Posts: 197
    MasterFramer wrote:
    The only way Florida and Michigan seat delegates is they re-vote... there is no way she wins states by 65%. Wake up dude... she is just going to bleed a slow slow death if she takes this past Penn.

    You may be right, but why should she quit when it's possible to win? Because it will be easier for Obama? Fuck that. The guy clearly needs some seasoning and frankly if he can't take this heat he will be toast against the Republicans. Let the dude earn it and stop whining. Either one of these two can beat McCain because he will be easy to paint as the heir to GW and no one wants that. He isnt' unbeatable by any strech. As far as Michigan and Florida I think the Clintons would be in err if they try to make Michigan count as it. But if they were all on the ballot in Florida I dont see that as unfair. Well see but your in denial if you think this may go on to the convention. And it's not bad for the party. The Republicans are arrogant. I think the country is rivited right now by these two people and regardless who wins, this country, through this party, has taken us to a new level of discourse and we can all win.
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    MasterFramer wrote:
    She has a 4 point lead with 7 weeks to go... the hillbillies up north are not going to be able to stop Obama like Ohio. She sure as hell has no chance of winning with any sort of majority that nets her significant delegates.

    I agree her lead has shrunk, but during that time it was shrinking she lost like a dozen states in a row. I think she wins by 8-10 points or maybe more.

    Trust me I'm not a Hillary fan, but the odds are up against Obama in PA. The Western part of PA is a lot like Ohio and the Eastern part of the state is Rendell country. Plus the Northeastern part goes along with New York. I'm just not sure what part of the state he's going to win. If he's going to keep it close, he's going to need to get the endorsement of the mayor in Pittsburgh, because Philly's mayor is a close ally of Rendell and has been on the Hillary ticket the entire time.
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  • MasterFramer
    MasterFramer Posts: 2,268
    Solat13 wrote:
    I agree her lead has shrunk, but during that time it was shrinking she lost like a dozen states in a row. I think she wins by 8-10 points or maybe more.

    Trust me I'm not a Hillary fan, but the odds are up against Obama in PA. The Western part of PA is a lot like Ohio and the Eastern part of the state is Rendell country. Plus the Northeastern part goes along with New York. I'm just not sure what part of the state he's going to win. If he's going to keep it close, he's going to need to get the endorsement of the mayor in Pittsburgh, because Philly's mayor is a close ally of Rendell and has been on the Hillary ticket the entire time.

    You obviously know more about the location :). But I thought I heard of a Clinton supporter leaning towards Obama? What is the population whites vs black in the state?
    10.31.93 / 10.1.94 / 6.24.95 / 11.4.95 / 10.19-20.96 / 7.16.98 / 7.21.98 / 10.31.00 /8.4.01 Nader Rally/ 10.21.01 / 12.8-9.02 / 6.01.03 / 9.1.05 / 7.15-16,18.06 / 7.20.06 / 7.22-23.06 / Lolla 07
  • g under p
    g under p Surfing The far side of THE Sombrero Galaxy Posts: 18,237
    MasterFramer wrote:
    You obviously know more about the location :). But I thought I heard of a Clinton supporter leaning towards Obama? What is the population whites vs black in the state?

    What exactly does this have to do with who votes for Obama? I thought he could pull in votes from all races since it appears it's all in your opinion.

    Peace
    *We CAN bomb the World to pieces, but we CAN'T bomb it into PEACE*...Michael Franti

    *MUSIC IS the expression of EMOTION.....and that POLITICS IS merely the DECOY of PERCEPTION*
    .....song_Music & Politics....Michael Franti

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  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    MasterFramer wrote:
    You obviously know more about the location :). But I thought I heard of a Clinton supporter leaning towards Obama? What is the population whites vs black in the state?

    The total population is a little over 12 million and its about 80% White, 11% Black, and 4% Hispanic.

    About a half million of the African American population lives in Philly. But the African American mayor is a big Clinton supporter and a close ally with Rendell.

    Residents call the region between Philly and Pittsburgh - Pennsyltucky as its pretty red neck out there.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
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    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • MasterFramer
    MasterFramer Posts: 2,268
    g under p wrote:
    What exactly does this have to do with who votes for Obama? I thought he could pull in votes from all races since it appears it's all in your opinion.

    Peace

    You are missing the point of my question.
    10.31.93 / 10.1.94 / 6.24.95 / 11.4.95 / 10.19-20.96 / 7.16.98 / 7.21.98 / 10.31.00 /8.4.01 Nader Rally/ 10.21.01 / 12.8-9.02 / 6.01.03 / 9.1.05 / 7.15-16,18.06 / 7.20.06 / 7.22-23.06 / Lolla 07
  • MasterFramer
    MasterFramer Posts: 2,268
    Solat13 wrote:
    The total population is a little over 12 million and its about 80% White, 11% Black, and 4% Hispanic.

    About a half million of the African American population lives in Philly. But the African American mayor is a big Clinton supporter and a close ally with Rendell.

    Residents call the region between Philly and Pittsburgh - Pennsyltucky as its pretty red neck out there.

    Interesting stuff. So it's hers to loose then. Why is she only 4 up will all those positives? Obama will now go negative. Her negatives far outweigh his.
    10.31.93 / 10.1.94 / 6.24.95 / 11.4.95 / 10.19-20.96 / 7.16.98 / 7.21.98 / 10.31.00 /8.4.01 Nader Rally/ 10.21.01 / 12.8-9.02 / 6.01.03 / 9.1.05 / 7.15-16,18.06 / 7.20.06 / 7.22-23.06 / Lolla 07
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    MasterFramer wrote:
    Interesting stuff. So it's hers to loose then. Why is she only 4 up will all those positives? Obama will now go negative. Her negatives far outweigh his.

    Yeah, I expect to see nothing but campaign commercials for both sides for the next 7 weeks. And I agree her negatives far outweigh his. But I can definitely see Hillary going all out to try and get a big win. The state is definitely hers to lose. It's probably her last chance at a big victory (in terms of numbers in a meaningful state) before the convention.

    The poll from the end of last week was only a 4% margin, But the polls from right after Super Tuesday were 12-16%. Like I said before I think the gap closed because of his winning streak and Obama had been getting a lot of positive press in Philly. I have a feeling that will change in the coming weeks.

    You also have to factor in the Republican Primary is meaningless so the Rush disciples who have their own local right wing shows are already trying to get Republicans to switch registrations and become Democrats before the March 24th deadline to vote for Hillary. I heard one of them openly discussing it on my ride home from work today.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • cubbieblue82
    cubbieblue82 Posts: 292
    If Obama wins the most delegates, and the superdelegates choose to override democracy and pick Hillary, then I will strongly consider voting for McCain. Same can be said if Florida and Michigan are suddenly counted(Obama wasn't even on the ballot in MI).

    I am definitely a liberal minded person, and I actually don't mind Hillary too much, but if the Dem party goes against the populace then they will need to be taught a lesson.

    McCain would be light years better than Bush anyway, but then again who wouldn't?
    Obama/Biden '08!!!
  • Hollyweird
    Hollyweird Posts: 197
    First, the guy has tons of negatives. But the press and the Clintons are forced to play with kid gloves with the guy. I mean look what his campaign did with a comment about LBJ? They went all racial on us. That shit wont play in the general election. If you think the Clintons are negative that aint nothing compared to the GOP. Everyone knows the Clintons dirty laundry. Its old news. Every negative we hear on Obama will be fresh fodor.
  • cubbieblue82
    cubbieblue82 Posts: 292
    Hollyweird wrote:
    First, the guy has tons of negatives. But the press and the Clintons are forced to play with kid gloves with the guy. I mean look what his campaign did with a comment about LBJ? They went all racial on us. That shit wont play in the general election. If you think the Clintons are negative that aint nothing compared to the GOP. Everyone knows the Clintons dirty laundry. Its old news. Every negative we hear on Obama will be fresh fodor.

    And you don't think the repubs will bring the negatives against her? She is one of the most polarizing political figures of our time. Old news or not, most people have forgotten about things like Whitewater. Sure, the democratic base loves her, but this election is about independents and moderates. I guarantee you that those people will flock to McCain over Hillary.

    On the other hand, Obama is a huge draw for independents and even some moderates, meaning he can compete with McCain for the swing voters.
    Obama/Biden '08!!!
  • Pacomc79
    Pacomc79 Posts: 9,404
    Hollyweird wrote:
    First, the guy has tons of negatives. But the press and the Clintons are forced to play with kid gloves with the guy. I mean look what his campaign did with a comment about LBJ? They went all racial on us. That shit wont play in the general election. If you think the Clintons are negative that aint nothing compared to the GOP. Everyone knows the Clintons dirty laundry. Its old news. Every negative we hear on Obama will be fresh fodor.

    And that makes it better to elect Hillary Clinton how? She's got decades of lying cheating and stealing to grab power? Nice Experience.
    My Girlfriend said to me..."How many guitars do you need?" and I replied...."How many pairs of shoes do you need?" She got really quiet.
  • blackredyellow
    blackredyellow Posts: 5,889
    Solat13 wrote:
    The total population is a little over 12 million and its about 80% White, 11% Black, and 4% Hispanic.

    About a half million of the African American population lives in Philly. But the African American mayor is a big Clinton supporter and a close ally with Rendell.

    Residents call the region between Philly and Pittsburgh - Pennsyltucky as its pretty red neck out there.

    Yeah, I'm originally from Pittsburgh, and I can't see Obama winning in PA. He will do well in Philly and Pittsburgh I think, but Allegheny county (around Pittsburgh) is (at least was a few years ago) the second oldest county in the country. And like you said, central PA might as well be Alabama.

    Hollyweird wrote:
    First, the guy has tons of negatives. But the press and the Clintons are forced to play with kid gloves with the guy. I mean look what his campaign did with a comment about LBJ? They went all racial on us. That shit wont play in the general election. If you think the Clintons are negative that aint nothing compared to the GOP. Everyone knows the Clintons dirty laundry. Its old news. Every negative we hear on Obama will be fresh fodor.

    How the hell are they forced to play with kid gloves? He's campaign goes ballistic and fights back with everything.... that's what campaigns do. Just ask John Kerry, you think that he wouldn't have fought back harder if could have done it again?

    "They went all racial on us"????? are you kidding me?

    The Clintons have more dirty laundry than Obama, McCain and probably half of the senate combined. It will be much easier and more effective for the GOP to go negative on her... They are chomping at the bit to go after the Clintons again.
    My whole life
    was like a picture
    of a sunny day
    “We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.”
    ― Abraham Lincoln
  • ledvedderman
    ledvedderman Posts: 7,762
    Hollyweird wrote:
    First, the guy has tons of negatives. But the press and the Clintons are forced to play with kid gloves with the guy. I mean look what his campaign did with a comment about LBJ? They went all racial on us. That shit wont play in the general election. If you think the Clintons are negative that aint nothing compared to the GOP. Everyone knows the Clintons dirty laundry. Its old news. Every negative we hear on Obama will be fresh fodor.

    They "went all racial" on you, or your candidate made a bonehead statement and pissed off the Democratic base. I never knew that throwing stories out about a candidates past drug use, saying that even the Republican candidate is more qualified to be President, floating pictures of Obama in a African robe, downplaying his victory in South Carolina because, "Jesse Jackson won here in '88", trying to add more to a relationship with Tony Rezko that was never there, and "change you can Xerox", was playing with the gloves on.

    If Hillary Clinton wants to talk about shady people that a candidate has in their background or land deals, I'd love to see that conversation happen. I think it will be her biggest regret.
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  • Pacomc79
    Pacomc79 Posts: 9,404
    blackredyellow wrote:
    Yeah, I'm originally from Pittsburgh, and I can't see Obama winning in PA. He will do well in Philly and Pittsburgh I think, but Allegheny county (around Pittsburgh) is (at least was a few years ago) the second oldest county in the country. And like you said, central PA might as well be Alabama.




    How the hell are they forced to play with kid gloves? He's campaign goes ballistic and fights back with everything.... that's what campaigns do. Just ask John Kerry, you think that he wouldn't have fought back harder if could have done it again?

    "They went all racial on us"????? are you kidding me?

    The Clintons have more dirty laundry than Obama, McCain and probably half of the senate combined. It will be much easier and more effective for the GOP to go negative on her... They are chomping at the bit to go after the Clintons again.


    why do you say might as well be Alabama? Did not Alabama and Georgia both vote for Obama?

    Inbred german farmers and maybe one token countywide black person is pretty far from the fairly diverse southland. Just bustin your chops... All these southern stereotypes are a little dated... Rural pennsylvania is in a class by itself. Beautiful... but not diverse. I couldn't tell you how they would vote at all.
    My Girlfriend said to me..."How many guitars do you need?" and I replied...."How many pairs of shoes do you need?" She got really quiet.
  • blackredyellow
    blackredyellow Posts: 5,889
    Pacomc79 wrote:
    why do you say might as well be Alabama? Did not Alabama and Georgia both vote for Obama?

    Inbred german farmers and maybe one token countywide black person is pretty far from the fairly diverse southland. Just bustin your chops... All these southern stereotypes are a little dated... Rural pennsylvania is in a class by itself. Beautiful... but not diverse. I couldn't tell you how they would vote at all.


    Yeah, but the main difference in the racial breakdown.

    I live in upstate NY now, so I drive through central PA a lot going home to the Pittsburgh area... it's like the land that time forgot out there lol. I don't know how WV is polling for Obama, but I would say central PA will follow suit with that.
    My whole life
    was like a picture
    of a sunny day
    “We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses.”
    ― Abraham Lincoln
  • Pacomc79
    Pacomc79 Posts: 9,404
    blackredyellow wrote:
    Yeah, but the main difference in the racial breakdown.

    I live in upstate NY now, so I drive through central PA a lot going home to the Pittsburgh area... it's like the land that time forgot out there lol. I don't know how WV is polling for Obama, but I would say central PA will follow suit with that.


    no worries, I was just kidding really.
    My Girlfriend said to me..."How many guitars do you need?" and I replied...."How many pairs of shoes do you need?" She got really quiet.
  • inmytree
    inmytree Posts: 4,741
    Hollyweird wrote:
    First, the guy has tons of negatives. But the press and the Clintons are forced to play with kid gloves with the guy. I mean look what his campaign did with a comment about LBJ? They went all racial on us. That shit wont play in the general election. If you think the Clintons are negative that aint nothing compared to the GOP. Everyone knows the Clintons dirty laundry. Its old news. Every negative we hear on Obama will be fresh fodor.

    help me out...can you list some of Billary's positives...


    'cause I just don't see any...

    convince me, please...

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