Are Polls Accurate?

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Comments

  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    digster wrote:
    Judging by the reasoning people are giving there, it's through no fault of Biden.

    I'm not saying it is.

    I'm more pointing out there are a lot of backwards people in Philly and PA so I wouldn't trust any poll from that state right now.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • digster
    digster Posts: 1,293
    Solat13 wrote:
    I'm not saying it is.

    I'm more pointing out there are a lot of backwards people in Philly and PA so I wouldn't trust any poll from that state right now.

    That could be what does this election in for Obama. I mean, how would you ever convince someone like that on the basis of issues? I know people like this; me and my girlfriend's mom have nearly come to blows, because she has decided for herself that Obama is a Muslim and no evidence or proof to the contrary will convince her otherwise.

    And honestly, I now believe it's the reason Obama's going to lose the election.
  • nfanel
    nfanel Posts: 2,558
    Solat13 wrote:
    "He's a smart guy, he's looks very educated, he has a beautiful wife," she said of Obama. "I just think the world's not ready for a black president."

    http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/27801049.html

    Plus you even have the Gov saying race will factor into the election:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/12/rendell-some-whites-won_n_86246.html
    your quotes make me embarrassed to live in pa. :)

    northeastern pennsylvania makes up a big part of the gun-toting pennsylvanians and biden is going to be a huge draw there.
  • Solat13
    Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    nfanel wrote:
    your quotes make me embarrassed to live in pa. :)

    northeastern pennsylvania makes up a big part of the gun-toting pennsylvanians and biden is going to be a huge draw there.

    I live here too - how do you think I feel ... lol ;)

    I think Biden definitely helps in NE PA. I'm just not sure how much he helps in the area between Philly and Pittsburgh known as "Pennsyltucky."
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • jimed14
    jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    Solat13 wrote:
    I wouldn't put PA in the solid Obama camp. You have to remember that PA hated Bush and he only lost by 145,000 or so votes and that was due to the highest voter turnout in an election in Philadelphia history where Kerry beat Bush by 412,000 votes 81%-19%.

    I don't see Philadelphia getting near that turnout and as much as I hate to say it race will be a big factor in Philadelphia.

    This is from last week's Philly paper.

    Another element of both sides' strategic thinking is the Northeast's, (and the city's) history of racial identification in voting. In 2003, the 55th Ward voted for white Republican Sam Katz over Mayor John Street, who is black, by an almost 9-to-1 ratio.

    The Northeast also voted for white candidates Tom Knox and Bob Brady in the 2007 mayoral primary, though African-American candidates got a larger share of the Northeast's vote than in previous mayoral contests.

    Annette Blumenthal, 47, of Pennypack, said she would support McCain over Obama, in part because of race.

    "He's a smart guy, he's looks very educated, he has a beautiful wife," she said of Obama. "I just think the world's not ready for a black president."

    http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/27801049.html

    Then you have to factor the 1 million plus veterans in PA (over 400,000 of which served in Vietnam), the largest NRA membership in the country, the fact that it's the 2nd oldest state and the fact that it is 86% white.

    Plus you even have the Gov saying race will factor into the election:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/12/rendell-some-whites-won_n_86246.html

    Even with Biden, I would not put PA as safely Democratic in terms of electoral votes. There's a reason McCain has visited PA more than any other state so far. I really think the GOP thinks they will win the state when all is said and done.


    it's 2 months out .. so, anything can happen ... but, not one poll has had McCain within 5 points of Obama in Pennsylvania ...

    again, a lot can happen ... it'll be a race for sure!
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez

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