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Are Polls Accurate?

Strangest TribeStrangest Tribe Posts: 2,502
edited September 2008 in A Moving Train
Almost 20 years ago I worked for a market research company and we never considered our research reliable until we conducted several months of research which included rigorous polling.

I look at today's presidential polls and wonder how accurate can they actually be at all.

Most of the polls used by our news services are based on less than 3000 polled with a error of +/- 3-4%.

I laugh at these polls, because our surveys of less than 5000 were usually highly inaccurate and later found out to be off by as much as 10-15%.

Is deciding the color of soap different than choosing a president when it comes to research?

Should we trust polls or are they purposefully misrepresentive?
the Minions
Post edited by Unknown User on

Comments

  • darkcrowdarkcrow Posts: 1,102
    polls are only as reliable as their sample. the larger the people polled with the widest demographic will generally be better than a poll of 500 people from alaska ;)
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  • OutOfBreathOutOfBreath Posts: 1,804
    Coming from a man who works with statistics for a living: Dont trust media polls, or at least not media's interpretation of polls. Their understanding can often be quite appalling from a methodological angle. Some polls are better than others, but it depends very much on how they are made, how they decide who to ask, and how many they ask from where. As for margin of error, that must also be accounted for. Even if polls between MCCain and Obama shifts 5-6 percentage points either way, doesnt mean that a single person has changed his mind, as it is within the margin of error quite often. (usually around 5 percentage points, depending on number of alternatives and the magnitude of the numbers).

    Definitely never ever trust a poll on the net-papers where readers can reply as they read about it. They're not valid in any way conceivable.

    Peace
    Dan
    "YOU [humans] NEED TO BELIEVE IN THINGS THAT AREN'T TRUE. HOW ELSE CAN THEY BECOME?" - Death

    "Every judgment teeters on the brink of error. To claim absolute knowledge is to become monstrous. Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty." - Frank Herbert, Dune, 1965
  • digsterdigster Posts: 1,293
    Which of the big polls (Zogby, Gallup, etc) are considered the most reliable?
  • Strangest TribeStrangest Tribe Posts: 2,502
    digster wrote:
    Which of the big polls (Zogby, Gallup, etc) are considered the most reliable?

    Neither IMO. The last Zogby only polled around 1100 where Gallup is usually 2000-3000.

    Not near enough for an accurate measure.
    the Minions
  • 88keys88keys Posts: 151
    Both Gore and Kerry were ahead in all the poles in 2000 and 2004. We saw how accurate those polls turned out to be.
    Camden 8/28/1998; Jones Beach 8/24/2000; Camden 9/1/2000; Camden 9/2/2000; Albany 4/29/2003; New York 7/8/2003; Vancouver 9/2/2005; Atlantic City 10/1/2005; Albany 5/12/2006; E. Rutherford 6/1/2006; E. Rutherford 6/3/2006; New York 6/24/2008; New York 6/25/2008; New York 5/20/2010
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    the thing about these national polls ... we don't vote on a popular basis .... we use the electoral college ...

    they are just talking points for the media.
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • spnkrispnkri Posts: 137
    Aren't people usually contacted on their landline? Hardly anyone I know that's my age or younger has a landline.
  • slightofjeffslightofjeff Posts: 7,762
    jimed14 wrote:
    the thing about these national polls ... we don't vote on a popular basis .... we use the electoral college ...

    they are just talking points for the media.

    According to this map: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

    McCain/Palin need one more state to win the election. (Colorado, anyone?)

    Obviously, this is just one projection, based in part on several polls that are within the margin of error, and there is still a long way to go.

    But who would have thought McCain would still be even this close heading into the fall? Bush was still getting his ass kicked at this point in '04.
    everybody wants the most they can possibly get
    for the least they could possibly do
  • OutOfBreathOutOfBreath Posts: 1,804
    slightofjeff wrote:
    According to this map: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

    McCain/Palin need one more state to win the election. (Colorado, anyone?)

    Obviously, this is just one projection, based in part on several polls that are within the margin of error, and there is still a long way to go.

    But who would have thought McCain would still be even this close heading into the fall? Bush was still getting his ass kicked at this point in '04.
    That site is actually pretty decent. They use a lot of polls, which put together are far more accurate than any single poll.

    Remember though, as the link makes clear, the "toss-up states" are really that. So those can't be credited either for "certain". They also sum only the "certain" ones: Obama 217, McCain 174, Toss Ups 147. So Obama's really ahead, while McCain atm has many of the toss-ups slightly on his side. Whether they really are, are hard to tell. Seems like it's gonna be close again.

    Peace
    Dan
    "YOU [humans] NEED TO BELIEVE IN THINGS THAT AREN'T TRUE. HOW ELSE CAN THEY BECOME?" - Death

    "Every judgment teeters on the brink of error. To claim absolute knowledge is to become monstrous. Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty." - Frank Herbert, Dune, 1965
  • digsterdigster Posts: 1,293
    The problem with the polls this year is that there are two factors that are going to be vital which are practically impossible to measure at this point in time, one of which would help McCain and one of which would help Obama. The first is that you can't accurately measure how many people will not vote for Obama due to his race, because people are not going to admit to this in polls. It may be extremely small, or it could be larger than we all realize. The second is that these polls ask likely or registered voters, but in both cases they are working off of previously established models (like previous Presidential elections). Obama, as we all know, had a huge turnout of previously unregistered voters. We'll have to wait until election day to see if this is a large number, and if he has a large turnout of previously unregistered voters in the states that are going to make the difference. We also need to see if he'll bring out the youth vote. Point is, no one knows how high these numbers are, and none of the polls are asking this previously unregistered voters.

    I've looked at the map on and off for a few days, and the way I see it, as always it comes down to Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Obama needs to win two of these to be able to have a shot. If I was David Axelrod (which I'm certainly not), Obama should (hopefully) be able to pull Michigan and Penn, and Ohio will probably go to McCain. After that, his work wouldn't be done yet. He'd need to get NH (which is close and looks like it will be a factor in November) and then it looks like he could get Colorado and New Mexico. He's ahead in both those states, but they both went for Bush in 2004. So, if he can get New Hampshire, Colorado and NM in addition for 2 out of the 3 swing states I mentioned earlier, he's got it. There's alot of room for error there though.

    Or he could just win Florida and save us all the trouble.
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    well, part of the issue is solved.

    I'm pretty certain with the addition of Biden to the ticket, Pennsylvania will go to Obama. The feeling is that Biden secures south eastern Pennsylvania. Biden's been called "Pensylvania's 3rd senator" at times.

    I watched Chuck Todd on MSNBC tonight ... say what you want about their slant, when it comes to demographics, numbers, votes and electorals, Chuck Todd knows his shit.

    anyway ... he pretty much put up 4 states that as of now, are really the true, non-leaning, too close to call, toss up states that these guy are going to fight over ... Colorado, Wisconsin, Virginia and New Hampshire.

    Hoping Jim Webb can help Obama in Virginia ... he almost selected him as a VP ... Wisconsin was Obama leading but, McCain Palin just made a push up there and it's really even now.

    Anyway ... the electorals are a much better way to look at it. IMO
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    digster wrote:
    Or he could just win Florida and save us all the trouble.

    oh, and this .... why Hillary was dispatched to Florida with a quickness. :)
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
  • dunkmandunkman Posts: 19,646
    this thread would have been better if you'd used the poll function.
    oh scary... 40000 morbidly obese christians wearing fanny packs invading europe is probably the least scariest thing since I watched an edited version of The Care Bears movie in an extremely brightly lit cinema.
  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    jimed14 wrote:
    well, part of the issue is solved.

    I'm pretty certain with the addition of Biden to the ticket, Pennsylvania will go to Obama. The feeling is that Biden secures south eastern Pennsylvania. Biden's been called "Pensylvania's 3rd senator" at times.

    I watched Chuck Todd on MSNBC tonight ... say what you want about their slant, when it comes to demographics, numbers, votes and electorals, Chuck Todd knows his shit.

    I wouldn't put PA in the solid Obama camp. You have to remember that PA hated Bush and he only lost by 145,000 or so votes and that was due to the highest voter turnout in an election in Philadelphia history where Kerry beat Bush by 412,000 votes 81%-19%.

    I don't see Philadelphia getting near that turnout and as much as I hate to say it race will be a big factor in Philadelphia.

    This is from last week's Philly paper.

    Another element of both sides' strategic thinking is the Northeast's, (and the city's) history of racial identification in voting. In 2003, the 55th Ward voted for white Republican Sam Katz over Mayor John Street, who is black, by an almost 9-to-1 ratio.

    The Northeast also voted for white candidates Tom Knox and Bob Brady in the 2007 mayoral primary, though African-American candidates got a larger share of the Northeast's vote than in previous mayoral contests.

    Annette Blumenthal, 47, of Pennypack, said she would support McCain over Obama, in part because of race.

    "He's a smart guy, he's looks very educated, he has a beautiful wife," she said of Obama. "I just think the world's not ready for a black president."

    http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/27801049.html

    Then you have to factor the 1 million plus veterans in PA (over 400,000 of which served in Vietnam), the largest NRA membership in the country, the fact that it's the 2nd oldest state and the fact that it is 86% white.

    Plus you even have the Gov saying race will factor into the election:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/12/rendell-some-whites-won_n_86246.html

    Even with Biden, I would not put PA as safely Democratic in terms of electoral votes. There's a reason McCain has visited PA more than any other state so far. I really think the GOP thinks they will win the state when all is said and done.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • digsterdigster Posts: 1,293
    Solat13 wrote:

    Annette Blumenthal, 47, of Pennypack, said she would support McCain over Obama, in part because of race.

    "He's a smart guy, he's looks very educated, he has a beautiful wife," she said of Obama. "I just think the world's not ready for a black president."

    http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/27801049.html

    Then you have to factor the 1 million plus veterans in PA (over 400,000 of which served in Vietnam), the largest NRA membership in the country, the fact that it's the 2nd oldest state and the fact that it is 86% white.

    Plus you even have the Gov saying race will factor into the election:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/12/rendell-some-whites-won_n_86246.html

    See, I don't care about people voting against Obama cause of the policies, but it's people like Annette Blumenthal that make me want to bang my head against the wall. "The world's not ready for a black president." What the hell does that mean and who is she to decide that for the rest of the world? It's truly scary when I think that mindsets like that could be the determining factor of the next four years of our country's future.

    I'm curious, though, why you think there'd be lower turnout this time than in 2004. If anything, the keyword of Obama's strategy is going to be new voters. Lots of them. If he has as good a ground game in the general election as he had in the primary, it's all going to be about those new voters. I think that'd make Philly's number rise, not fall.

    However, I think Obama does need to win there. I have a feeling that Ohio, when it is all said and done, will not go his way, so to even have a chance he needs to pick up Michigan and Penn. I think Team Obama also has to decide how much of their resources to put into Florida. I don't think for the Democrats lately have been able to just go down to Florida once or twice and win it. If Obama wants to win there, he'd have to put significant time and resources, and I don't think he should start putting all his eggs in the Florida basket. We all know what happened with Rudy when he tried that.
  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    digster wrote:
    See, I don't care about people voting against Obama cause of the policies, but it's people like Annette Blumenthal that make me want to bang my head against the wall. "The world's not ready for a black president." What the hell does that mean and who is she to decide that for the rest of the world? It's truly scary when I think that mindsets like that could be the determining factor of the next four years of our country's future.

    I'm curious, though, why you think there'd be lower turnout this time than in 2004. If anything, the keyword of Obama's strategy is going to be new voters. Lots of them. If he has as good a ground game in the general election as he had in the primary, it's all going to be about those new voters. I think that'd make Philly's number rise, not fall.

    Well turnout was 67% in Philly in 2004 - an alltime record for Philly which is usally apathetic about national elections. It was around 54% in 2000 and usually in the low 50's the few before it. I think it will be somewhere in the middle around 60%. People had a real hatred of Bush in 2004. At least from what I see driving to work and going through Philly everyday there are a lot less Obama stickers and signs than there were Kerry stickers and signs but Obama will get out enough new voters to make turnout higher than normal.

    The reason I think that Obama won't get the numbers Kerry got and that people won't turn out as much is as much as people may disagree with McCain he is just not as hated as W and for the most part the whole message that McCain is another 4 years of Bush is not working well here.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • inmytreeinmytree Posts: 4,741
    here is a good site with lots of polling info...

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

    I have to add, I think polls are bullshit, for the most part. They are subjective and not very valid.
  • LikeAnOpeningBandForTheSunLikeAnOpeningBandForTheSun Posts: 6,097
    really the national polls dont matter, because Obama is ahead or tied in every swing state that matters.

    this election isnt as close as every one is saying. Obama is killing him right now.
  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    digster wrote:
    See, I don't care about people voting against Obama cause of the policies, but it's people like Annette Blumenthal that make me want to bang my head against the wall. "The world's not ready for a black president." What the hell does that mean and who is she to decide that for the rest of the world? It's truly scary when I think that mindsets like that could be the determining factor of the next four years of our country's future.

    I'm curious, though, why you think there'd be lower turnout this time than in 2004. If anything, the keyword of Obama's strategy is going to be new voters. Lots of them. If he has as good a ground game in the general election as he had in the primary, it's all going to be about those new voters. I think that'd make Philly's number rise, not fall.

    However, I think Obama does need to win there. I have a feeling that Ohio, when it is all said and done, will not go his way, so to even have a chance he needs to pick up Michigan and Penn. I think Team Obama also has to decide how much of their resources to put into Florida. I don't think for the Democrats lately have been able to just go down to Florida once or twice and win it. If Obama wants to win there, he'd have to put significant time and resources, and I don't think he should start putting all his eggs in the Florida basket. We all know what happened with Rudy when he tried that.

    http://www.philly.com/dailynews/local/27947004.html

    Apparently, Biden's latest stumping trip in Philly is not exceeding expectations.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • digsterdigster Posts: 1,293
    Solat13 wrote:
    http://www.philly.com/dailynews/local/27947004.html

    Apparently, Biden's latest stumping trip in Philly is not exceeding expectations.

    Judging by the reasoning people are giving there, it's through no fault of Biden.
  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    digster wrote:
    Judging by the reasoning people are giving there, it's through no fault of Biden.

    I'm not saying it is.

    I'm more pointing out there are a lot of backwards people in Philly and PA so I wouldn't trust any poll from that state right now.
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • digsterdigster Posts: 1,293
    Solat13 wrote:
    I'm not saying it is.

    I'm more pointing out there are a lot of backwards people in Philly and PA so I wouldn't trust any poll from that state right now.

    That could be what does this election in for Obama. I mean, how would you ever convince someone like that on the basis of issues? I know people like this; me and my girlfriend's mom have nearly come to blows, because she has decided for herself that Obama is a Muslim and no evidence or proof to the contrary will convince her otherwise.

    And honestly, I now believe it's the reason Obama's going to lose the election.
  • nfanelnfanel Posts: 2,558
    Solat13 wrote:
    "He's a smart guy, he's looks very educated, he has a beautiful wife," she said of Obama. "I just think the world's not ready for a black president."

    http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/27801049.html

    Plus you even have the Gov saying race will factor into the election:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/12/rendell-some-whites-won_n_86246.html
    your quotes make me embarrassed to live in pa. :)

    northeastern pennsylvania makes up a big part of the gun-toting pennsylvanians and biden is going to be a huge draw there.
  • Solat13Solat13 Posts: 6,996
    nfanel wrote:
    your quotes make me embarrassed to live in pa. :)

    northeastern pennsylvania makes up a big part of the gun-toting pennsylvanians and biden is going to be a huge draw there.

    I live here too - how do you think I feel ... lol ;)

    I think Biden definitely helps in NE PA. I'm just not sure how much he helps in the area between Philly and Pittsburgh known as "Pennsyltucky."
    - Busted down the pretext
    - 8/28/98
    - 9/2/00
    - 4/28/03, 5/3/03, 7/3/03, 7/5/03, 7/6/03, 7/9/03, 7/11/03, 7/12/03, 7/14/03
    - 9/28/04, 9/29/04, 10/1/04, 10/2/04
    - 9/11/05, 9/12/05, 9/13/05, 9/30/05, 10/1/05, 10/3/05
    - 5/12/06, 5/13/06, 5/27/06, 5/28/06, 5/30/06, 6/1/06, 6/3/06, 6/23/06, 7/22/06, 7/23/06, 12/2/06, 12/9/06
    - 8/2/07, 8/5/07
    - 6/19/08, 6/20/08, 6/22/08, 6/24/08, 6/25/08, 6/27/08, 6/28/08, 6/30/08, 7/1/08
    - 8/23/09, 8/24/09, 9/21/09, 9/22/09, 10/27/09, 10/28/09, 10/30/09, 10/31/09
    - 5/15/10, 5/17/10, 5/18/10, 5/20/10, 5/21/10, 10/23/10, 10/24/10
    - 9/11/11, 9/12/11
    - 10/18/13, 10/21/13, 10/22/13, 11/30/13, 12/4/13
  • jimed14jimed14 Posts: 9,488
    Solat13 wrote:
    I wouldn't put PA in the solid Obama camp. You have to remember that PA hated Bush and he only lost by 145,000 or so votes and that was due to the highest voter turnout in an election in Philadelphia history where Kerry beat Bush by 412,000 votes 81%-19%.

    I don't see Philadelphia getting near that turnout and as much as I hate to say it race will be a big factor in Philadelphia.

    This is from last week's Philly paper.

    Another element of both sides' strategic thinking is the Northeast's, (and the city's) history of racial identification in voting. In 2003, the 55th Ward voted for white Republican Sam Katz over Mayor John Street, who is black, by an almost 9-to-1 ratio.

    The Northeast also voted for white candidates Tom Knox and Bob Brady in the 2007 mayoral primary, though African-American candidates got a larger share of the Northeast's vote than in previous mayoral contests.

    Annette Blumenthal, 47, of Pennypack, said she would support McCain over Obama, in part because of race.

    "He's a smart guy, he's looks very educated, he has a beautiful wife," she said of Obama. "I just think the world's not ready for a black president."

    http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/27801049.html

    Then you have to factor the 1 million plus veterans in PA (over 400,000 of which served in Vietnam), the largest NRA membership in the country, the fact that it's the 2nd oldest state and the fact that it is 86% white.

    Plus you even have the Gov saying race will factor into the election:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/12/rendell-some-whites-won_n_86246.html

    Even with Biden, I would not put PA as safely Democratic in terms of electoral votes. There's a reason McCain has visited PA more than any other state so far. I really think the GOP thinks they will win the state when all is said and done.


    it's 2 months out .. so, anything can happen ... but, not one poll has had McCain within 5 points of Obama in Pennsylvania ...

    again, a lot can happen ... it'll be a race for sure!
    "You're one of the few Red Sox fans I don't mind." - Newch91

    "I don't believe in damn curses. Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass." --- Pedro Martinez
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