Was the Lebanese War Worth It?
zcyrus
Posts: 22
Now that there is a cease fire in Lebanon, I think we should all look back at the results of the latest round of violence for both Israel and the world.
1. Hezbollah a group that had support of about one third of the people in Lebanon now has support of an overwhelming majority – about 80 – 90 %
2. About half of Hezbollah’s rockets were destroyed, still leaving them with roughly 600 – 800 rockets and still has the ability to get more.
3. Arab support for Hezbollah is at an all time high. People in Baghdad are hanging flags on their homes and joining in the streets in support.
4. Hezbollah is claiming victory allowing it to rally even more support.
5. Israel now is forced to negotiate with Hezbollah over an exchange of prisoners that were captured during the last few weeks of fighting.
6. Destabilized a pro-western government, forcing the Lebanese government to state that it respected Hezbullah.
7. The UN passes a resolution that by all accounts that I’ve seen will result in very little in the overall situation.
8. Hundreds of Israeli and Lebanese civilians dead.
It should be noted that the violence was in response to a two Israeli soldiers being kidnapped for no reason. However, I think if Israel had to do it all over again, seeing the results as shown above, they may have chosen a different path.
1. Hezbollah a group that had support of about one third of the people in Lebanon now has support of an overwhelming majority – about 80 – 90 %
2. About half of Hezbollah’s rockets were destroyed, still leaving them with roughly 600 – 800 rockets and still has the ability to get more.
3. Arab support for Hezbollah is at an all time high. People in Baghdad are hanging flags on their homes and joining in the streets in support.
4. Hezbollah is claiming victory allowing it to rally even more support.
5. Israel now is forced to negotiate with Hezbollah over an exchange of prisoners that were captured during the last few weeks of fighting.
6. Destabilized a pro-western government, forcing the Lebanese government to state that it respected Hezbullah.
7. The UN passes a resolution that by all accounts that I’ve seen will result in very little in the overall situation.
8. Hundreds of Israeli and Lebanese civilians dead.
It should be noted that the violence was in response to a two Israeli soldiers being kidnapped for no reason. However, I think if Israel had to do it all over again, seeing the results as shown above, they may have chosen a different path.
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Typo Man: "Thanks kidz, but remembir, stay in skool!"
Funny how many times in the last month I said that the Israeli offensive would be counter-productive on every level...comparable to the job the USA is doing in Iraq....both failures...should add-in the loss of support from the majority of western countries for Israel...not for the right of defending itself but being dis-proportionate in their attack....
i would have released the thousand of lebanese prisoners being held secretly without trial and begun negotiations with syria and lebanon about the withdrawal from the shebaa farms ...
Mine would not have involved wide spread bombing for one thing....but whatever works for some does not always work for another.....
I guess they were victorious in terms of garnering more support in the rest of the Middle East. Of course, it can be argued they had most of that support before the current war even started.
Well, no.
Point being that they gathered even more support...right these does make it an Israel loss but not militarily but poltically....Israel created more nuts simple as that....anyway he should not be spouting this crap off....he's just being as bad as he is portrayed...rallying the troops is not the best of ways...maybe he should approve the ceasefire for what it is and talk about how himself and Israel can build a path to peace...which to me makes more sense than claiming victory...trust me I believe Israel was overboard...but if they really wanted to they could have blown Lebanon back to the stone age....Nasrallah should know that better than anyone....
I don't know how big Lebanon is, but when you go from 30 - 80% in support, you have many more people to become potential terrorist than when you started, no matter how many terrorist Israel killed.
I would have had targeted attacks only on the main ammunition sites, one to two days of bombing (this would have resulted in deteriorated support for Hezbullah), rather than the overwhelming response by Israeli that had the reverse effect. Then negotiate a prisoner exchange. When it happens again do the same thing and slowly deteriorate the popular support for Hezbullah in Lebanon.
Yeah, I agree. Israel's decision to bomb as extensively as it did was the biggest mistake made.
The following is a piece from Thomas Friedman, a writer for the New York Times Op-Ed section.
The Morning After the Morning After
by Thomas L. Friedman
With every war there are two days to keep in mind when the guns fall silent: the morning after, and the morning after the morning after. America, Israel and all those who want to see Lebanon’s democracy revived need to keep their eyes focused on the morning after the morning after.
Here’s why.
The only way that the fighting in south Lebanon will be brought to a close is if all the parties accept a cease-fire and the imposition of a robust international peacekeeping force, led by France, along the Israel-Lebanon border — supplanting Hezbollah.
The morning after that cease-fire goes into effect, everyone knows what will happen: Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah — no matter how battered his forces and how much damage his reckless war has visited on Lebanon — will crawl out of his bunker and declare a “great victory.” Hezbollah, he will say, fought the Israeli Army to a standstill inside Lebanon and rained rockets on northern Israel. Meanwhile, military analysts everywhere will write that Israel has “lost its deterrence” vis-à-vis Arab forces, and blah, blah, blah.
Sorry, been there, heard that, and I don’t buy it. What matters in war, alas, is the balance of destruction on the ground and the political weight it exerts over time.
On the morning after the morning after, Lebanese war refugees, who had real jobs and homes, will start streaming back by the hundreds of thousands, many of them Shiites. Tragically, they will find their homes or businesses badly damaged or obliterated. Yes, they will curse Israel. But they and other Arabs will also start asking Nasrallah publicly what many are already asking privately:
“What was this war all about? What did we get from this and at what price? Israel has some roofs to repair and some dead to bury. But its economy and state are fully intact, and it will recover quickly. We Lebanese have been set back by a decade. Our economy and our democracy lie in ruins, like our homes. For what? For a one-week boost in ‘Arab honor?’ So that Iran could distract the world’s attention from its nuclear program? You did all this to us for another country?”
As Michael Young, opinion editor of The Beirut Daily Star, put it an article in Slate: “Hezbollah’s ... test will be to rapidly alleviate the suffering in its own community and, therefore, avoid losing its base. The party still has substantial backing among its coreligionists, and it is not about to see this disappear. But soon the fate of the hundreds of thousands of Shiites now living in schools, tent cities, and even public parks will be an overriding concern for Nasrallah. Many have fled areas partly or wholly destroyed, to which they might not return for months or years. ... Hezbollah will have to provide funding for reconstruction and rehabilitation that is likely to run into the billions of dollars. ... The party will have a monumental task to revive not only Shiite morale but confidence that Hezbollah can take care of its own. ... Even the party’s most optimistic interpretation of the current war — that it is a heroic achievement — will not spare it having to tiptoe very carefully through Shiite trauma.”
Moreover, if and when a French-led international force is placed along the Israel-Lebanon border, it will be a big loss for Hezbollah. The Shiite militia will no longer be able to directly touch Israel and start a war for Iran or Syria whenever it chooses. And, if Hezbollah tried to lob missiles over the peacekeeping zone, or penetrate it, it would clash with forces from France, Italy and Turkey, the likely peacekeepers. That means Hezbollah, Iran and Syria would not be able to hurt Israel without also hurting their own relations with the European Union.
Israel needs to keep its eyes on the prize. It’s already inflicted enormous damage on Hezbollah and its community, but Nasrallah will only have to pay the full price for inviting all that destruction once the guns fall silent on the morning after the morning after. So let’s get there as soon as possible. That will deter him. What would deter him even more, though, would be if the U.N. would go ahead and impose sanctions on Iran for its illicit nuclear bomb program. After all, it was Iran, Nasrallah’s master, that ordered up this war to distract the U.N. from doing just that. It would be nice to say to Iran: You ravaged Hezbollah for nothing.
Beyond those two limited objectives, there’s no storybook ending for Israel in Lebanon, and it shouldn’t throw more good lives after some elusive knockout blow. It’s just not that kind of neighborhood. As they say in the movies, “Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.”
I think that's incorrect. Not even the U.S. government would react that way to Americans being kidnapped...in fact they haven't, not even with Iran back in the late 70's. The soldiers being kidnapped wasn't the motive for the invasion. That incident is like Israel's 9/11...they use that incident as a justification for invasion. But the true motive is different. The motive is to expand their lands, just like it always has been.
Except that if this were true, Israel would not have signed onto the UN resolution for a ceasefire and instead would have continued its attempt to seize more land.
Interesting... will you retract those words when Israel completley withdraws from Lebanon?
Funny how you say this when they already withdrew from Lebaonon once, as well as Gaza.
yeah ... i don't think this is a land grab ... i think its more related to a) war profiteering and b) developing the case to invade iran ...
I think a lot of the Israeli reaction has to do with internal politics within Israel. A new president that does not want to look weak, especially with the right wing in Israel seeming to be getting stronger. Also, I think Israeli intelligence failed them. Like the '82 invasion in Lebanon, Israel probably thought they could run through Lebanon in about a week. After 4 weeks, I think they realized that to do it, they would be there for 20 years.
i don't see how any of the consequences were not foreseen ... we talked about this on day one ... no way people over there did not foresee this problem ...
Running through wasn't the problem, I don't think. Mopping up captured areas was the problem. Israel deliberately took its time moving into Lebanon, choosing to eliminate the enemy in specific areas rather tham simply holding territory. Something that proved hard to do, of course. One day you see a Lebanese villager plowing his field, the next day the same guy is shooting at you from a bunker.
polaris- care to elaborate on how israel's response to the hezbollah attack was "war profiteering"? all i see is $2 billion in damages and an economic recession.
Most antizionists are antisemites
war profiteering is about the arms trade ... its about selling guns and weapons and having the conditions set to enhance those sales ... an instable middle east and threats of terror are the foundation for profits ... a world in peace makes for poor gun sales ... and these people have a lot of influence in this world ...
all those munitions, missles and damages will have to be replaced and guess who is gonna replace them ...
Iran?
well ... i'm sure hezbollah is looking out for a warehouse or end of decade sale in iran soon enuf ...
but israel or should i say americans will be paying full price for their new stuff - gonna make those guys real happy ...
And the US for the other side. But no big deal, Israel is paying us with our foreign aid money.
Most antizionists are antisemites
Well UN resolutions are how you gain lands....that's how Israel got land in the first place. You attack, cease fire, have a negotiation, and the victor usually sees some sort of spoils.
But I'll re-phrase. Israel's motive is to reshape the Middle East so they have more control over it. Even if the motive doesn't have to do with lands in this case, it certainly isn't driven by 2 hostages. So it's incorrect to say that.
I sincerely hope you read post #11. Nobody wanted this war, especially Israel and their new leader. This was never about arms sales. If you want to talk about money and influence, read what Warren Buffet just did in Israel -that is real adult money...
I just don't get your line of thinking. If anybody in the Middle East is trying to manuver for power and influence, it is Iran. Any analyst, columnsit, politician, academic... pretty much across the entire political spectrum will tell you that.
This was a proxy war fought on behalf of Iran through Hezbollah. Israel just wants to be left alone, so they can grow and prosper like they have always done.... read post #11.
War is for kids and stupids...
-Jean-Jacques Rousseau