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  • vaggar99vaggar99 San Diego USA Posts: 3,427
    mrussel1 said:
    vaggar99 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    vaggar99 said:
    Unemployment is already higher than it ever was during the Great Recession. It's only going to get worse.  Lots of high paying jobs are being lost.  

    You can't tell me that a $1200 check and some bullshit (and it is bullshit) loan program will fix this.
    Sorry, it's not bullshit.  There are 55 companies that work for my company that are going through the approval process.  My wife is a CPA and is helping small businesses apply as well.  The terms are very favorable.

    Plus, you are forgetting about the extra $600 per week in unemployment insurance through the end of July.  The gov't has done more to surround this problem than at any other time in our history, including the depression.  
    We've applied for 3 of them.  The terms seem favorable on the surface.   But I can tell you, they are not really.  If you want to discuss further, I've already started a thread on this.  
    I agree the devil is in the details, but the question is whether it's to your advantage to take the loans or not?  For the vast majority, the answer is probably yes.  For my company, the answer is no for a variety of reasons.  We also won't take the tax credits.  

    Where is the thread?  I didn't see it.
    I just posted there.
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    The stock market being at 23k is still amazing to me.  How the bottom hasn't fell out yet is truly mindblowing.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    The stock market being at 23k is still amazing to me.  How the bottom hasn't fell out yet is truly mindblowing.
    Government propping up the economy.  Treasury and the Fed rolled out a new program that focuses on mid size businesses,  to keep them afloat.  I think the max amount is a 25 million loan,  paid over 4 years, one year deferred P&I, interest rate at the overnight discount.  And banks only have to hold 5% of the note.  This is outside of CARES act and is a no brainer to take the money.
  • vaggar99vaggar99 San Diego USA Posts: 3,427
    mrussel1 said:
    The stock market being at 23k is still amazing to me.  How the bottom hasn't fell out yet is truly mindblowing.
    Government propping up the economy.  Treasury and the Fed rolled out a new program that focuses on mid size businesses,  to keep them afloat.  I think the max amount is a 25 million loan,  paid over 4 years, one year deferred P&I, interest rate at the overnight discount.  And banks only have to hold 5% of the note.  This is outside of CARES act and is a no brainer to take the money.
    The market is not accounting for all the jobs that are being and going to be lost that are not coming back anytime soon.  Tourism, food service, conventions, concerts, sporting events, retail.  
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    vaggar99 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    The stock market being at 23k is still amazing to me.  How the bottom hasn't fell out yet is truly mindblowing.
    Government propping up the economy.  Treasury and the Fed rolled out a new program that focuses on mid size businesses,  to keep them afloat.  I think the max amount is a 25 million loan,  paid over 4 years, one year deferred P&I, interest rate at the overnight discount.  And banks only have to hold 5% of the note.  This is outside of CARES act and is a no brainer to take the money.
    The market is not accounting for all the jobs that are being and going to be lost that are not coming back anytime soon.  Tourism, food service, conventions, concerts, sporting events, retail.  
    So you're saying the market is over valued.  I don't necessarily disagree,  but 18 was too low.  I think it will meander for at least two months. I do think there are good values out there though. 
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,952
    Housing forecasts look pretty bleak.  Not a precise indicator of what the market will do, but in some ways the economy goes as housing goes. 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    mrussel1 said:
    vaggar99 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    The stock market being at 23k is still amazing to me.  How the bottom hasn't fell out yet is truly mindblowing.
    Government propping up the economy.  Treasury and the Fed rolled out a new program that focuses on mid size businesses,  to keep them afloat.  I think the max amount is a 25 million loan,  paid over 4 years, one year deferred P&I, interest rate at the overnight discount.  And banks only have to hold 5% of the note.  This is outside of CARES act and is a no brainer to take the money.
    The market is not accounting for all the jobs that are being and going to be lost that are not coming back anytime soon.  Tourism, food service, conventions, concerts, sporting events, retail.  
    So you're saying the market is over valued.  I don't necessarily disagree,  but 18 was too low.  I think it will meander for at least two months. I do think there are good values out there though. 
    If it goes down to 16k I wouldn't be surprised.
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    bbiggs said:
    I do know that banks are not quick to lend out right now and banks do not want to foreclose your home and have a house on their books.

    Can you cut and paste the article please?
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    Stock market falling now is a crystal ball in to the future...

    I need to secure some assets...
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    bbiggs said:
    I do know that banks are not quick to lend out right now and banks do not want to foreclose your home and have a house on their books.

    Can you cut and paste the article please?
    Correct.  The banks are willing to do modifications and forbearance.  They learned in 08 that sitting on the assets wasn't better.  
  • pjhawkspjhawks Posts: 12,566
    just got my quarterly report on my 401k.  lost 17% of value this quarter. actually thought it might be higher. only 2nd time i can ever remember losing more than a few points in one quarter. only other time was after 9/11.  luckily i am not close to retirement so not really too concerned about it but kind of wild to see such a large negative number.
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,952
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
  • static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
    So can someone explain why you don’t just stop production until the current supply needs to be replenished with demand.  I still can’t understand why the entire economy hasn’t been put on a hard pause of some sort.
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
    So can someone explain why you don’t just stop production until the current supply needs to be replenished with demand.  I still can’t understand why the entire economy hasn’t been put on a hard pause of some sort.
    My assumption is most of US production is on hold right now.  Remember we have a lower grade crude (fracked) and that has a shut down price of $30 some dollars a barrel.  So below that number, they lose money by producing a barrel.  The problem is OPEC.  Remember the price drop started in March because some nations wanted to stop producing to keep the price per barrel sustainable, but Russia refused, left OPEC and started pumping away.  That meant that everyone else had to do the same.  Now there's a huge supply and no one wants it.  
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,952
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
    Last I saw it was down to negative $11 a barrel.  My understanding is that these prices are tied to oil demand in May.  We can essentially expect zero demand in May, plus there is an over-supply.  We know oil demand is coming back though.  It's when, not if.  That particular ETF is trading at an all-time low since inception in 2006.  Based on that information, it seems like a relatively safe investment as of today. Do you agree or is there something I'm missing?

  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    bbiggs said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
    Last I saw it was down to negative $11 a barrel.  My understanding is that these prices are tied to oil demand in May.  We can essentially expect zero demand in May, plus there is an over-supply.  We know oil demand is coming back though.  It's when, not if.  That particular ETF is trading at an all-time low since inception in 2006.  Based on that information, it seems like a relatively safe investment as of today. Do you agree or is there something I'm missing?

    I've never traded commodities, so I can't say for sure.  But if you're planning on the long game, it seems like it would be an easy decision.  I am going to do some research myself.  
    Interestingly, my Amazon has been acting as a market hedge.  Every time the market goes down, Amazon flies up.  And then it loses, generally, on good days.  Amazon is the new bond market I guess. 
  • bbiggsbbiggs Posts: 6,952
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bbiggs said:
    Oil is at $.10 a barrel.  Incredible.  Seems like $USO would be a good opportunity.
    I saw that.  It means no one has anywhere to store the excess. 
    Last I saw it was down to negative $11 a barrel.  My understanding is that these prices are tied to oil demand in May.  We can essentially expect zero demand in May, plus there is an over-supply.  We know oil demand is coming back though.  It's when, not if.  That particular ETF is trading at an all-time low since inception in 2006.  Based on that information, it seems like a relatively safe investment as of today. Do you agree or is there something I'm missing?

    I've never traded commodities, so I can't say for sure.  But if you're planning on the long game, it seems like it would be an easy decision.  I am going to do some research myself.  
    Interestingly, my Amazon has been acting as a market hedge.  Every time the market goes down, Amazon flies up.  And then it loses, generally, on good days.  Amazon is the new bond market I guess. 
    Thanks for the feedback and I agree.  It would definitely be a long term play.  I haven't followed Amazon closely of late, but that's an interesting observation.  Even at today's prices, it seems like the sky is the limit for that company. 

  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    CM189191 said:
    Funny, but not fair.  The government shouldn't be looking for stock deals.  
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    My Amazon hedge fell apart today. 
  • dignindignin Posts: 9,337
    mrussel1 said:
    My Amazon hedge fell apart today. 
    Feels like there is no rhyme or reason in today's stock market. Which is unsurprising given the circumstances.

    I was considering selling my rental property to buy in but I'm going to hold off. I still have no idea how this will all play out 
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    I definitely will be investing in oil as soon as my tax refund arrives!
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,749
    mrussel1 said:
    My Amazon hedge fell apart today. 

    Welcome to tomorrow.
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    Look into XLE and tell me what you think.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,814
    Look into XLE and tell me what you think.
    Hard to say.  I like SPDR funds in general.  I have money in their fund that tracks the banks.  Is this all non-renewable sources like coal, oil, shale?  Or does it have sustainable sources?  If Biden wins, I wouldn't want to be in that kind of fund long term (dirty energy), but as a short term during the recession, it could be a good buy.
  • tempo_n_groovetempo_n_groove Posts: 40,491
    mrussel1 said:
    Look into XLE and tell me what you think.
    Hard to say.  I like SPDR funds in general.  I have money in their fund that tracks the banks.  Is this all non-renewable sources like coal, oil, shale?  Or does it have sustainable sources?  If Biden wins, I wouldn't want to be in that kind of fund long term (dirty energy), but as a short term during the recession, it could be a good buy.
    I'm looking at it for short term.  It was at $60 before the oil war.

    The stock has witholdings with ten oil producers.

    I'm thinking about purchasing 100 shares if it goes to $25 again and holding.  Once things start to open up the demand for oil will go up again.
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