4% isn’t a number a winning campaign can be built upon? Learn some history, young padawan. Some pretty damn RECENT history.
Who were the most significant players in the last open primary we had in this country, Democrats in 2004?
John Kerry and John Edwards, by a lot.
Know what they were polling in mid-September 2003?
Try this. ABC poll on September 13th, 2003.
Lieberman 21
Dean 15
Kerry 14
Gephardt 14
Clark 6
Sharpton 5
Carol Mosley-Brown 4
Edwards 3
Gallup poll, same time
Lieberman 18
Gephardt 15
Dean 15
Kerry 12
Bob Graham 5
Edwards 5
CBS/NYT, a little later, Sept 28th:
Clark 14
Dean 9
Gephardt 5
Lieberman 5
Kerry 4
Edwards 1
By November, Kerry was polling at about 7, Edwards at about 3.
Edwards never got above single digits until the day of Iowa voting.
-source
WHO WAS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE IN 2004 !?!?!
There's a big difference between September 2003 and December of 2007. My point has been all along that it's too late. Go back a couple of posts and you'll see where I point out the "35 days before an election". Let's not forget that the primaries have been moved up, so September 2003 would be more like August of 2007.
The thing that got Kerry those bumps were the debates. There weren't a million debates in 03 like there have been this year, so he could use those to his advantage. At this point of the game Paul is still trailing by a significant number, with only a couple of debates to go before the Iowa caucus.
One thing that will help Paul is when he announces his fund raising, he'll get a slight bump, but it will be no where near enough.
You mean,
other than the bit where he outright blamed the American public for forcing the troops out of Vietnam
and then went on later to
ambush Ron Paul and accuse him of isolationism while blaming America for Hitler?
UH.
misguided to say the least.
Besides,
his droopy cheeks really bother me.
[not to mention looking right at the camera and saying he doesn't support something like a fair tax or outright irs elimination and no tax, clearly implying that he is a big government clone that wants to keep big tax up your ass and in your wallet\purse for ever]
[and i think Mitt is the GOPs fallback in case Giuliani comes off to severe. Romney would be their "peoples" candidate. It wont work]
did you see the end of the debate on the keeping them honest portion? the only thing they found "wrong" with what paul said, was that he said he had 5K supporters, it was more like 2K (i think). They didn't have a problem (at least with honesty) with what he said re: the issues and his statements.
make sure the fortune that you seek...is the fortune that you need
There's a big difference between September 2003 and December of 2007. My point has been all along that it's too late. Go back a couple of posts and you'll see where I point out the "35 days before an election". Let's not forget that the primaries have been moved up, so September 2003 would be more like August of 2007.
Yeah there is a big difference, the GOP have NO CLUE how many Ron Paul supporters are out there. In past races the base of the party went out to vote and the number of people voting was predictable.
Yeah there is a big difference, the GOP have NO CLUE how many Ron Paul supporters are out there. In past races the base of the party went out to vote and the number of people voting was predictable.
You're right, I'm sure the GOP has no clue about Ron Paul's supporters. Are you serious? He's on their radar believe me. He's huge in college towns and has raised a shit load of money. They're paying close attention to him and his supporters. To think that this is some shift in culture for the Republican side of things and that Paul is going to rise from nowhere like a phoenix is frankly naive.
You're right, I'm sure the GOP has no clue about Ron Paul's supporters. Are you serious? He's on their radar believe me. He's huge in college towns and has raised a shit load of money. They're paying close attention to him and his supporters. To think that this is some shift in culture for the Republican side of things and that Paul is going to rise from nowhere like a phoenix is frankly naive.
Of course he's on the radar, but they are unable to poll his supporters like they are able to poll the old guard.
Of course he's on the radar, but they are unable to poll his supporters like they are able to poll the old guard.
We will know who is naive in a few months.
Of course they know how many supporters he has. GOP strategists have been doing this for over a year. They know what's going on.
I'm not being naive, I'm being a realist. I eat, sleep, and breathe political campaigns. You think the major parties are clueless as to what is going on, but they know very well. If Ron Paul finishes in the top three (not just in one primary) of the overall Republican primary season I will be amazed beyond a reasonable doubt. I'd be happy because it shows hope in a failed political system, but the realistic side is that he, like Biden, Kucinich, Tancredo, Dodd, and Gravel have no shot at winning.
Of course they know how many supporters he has. GOP strategists have been doing this for over a year. They know what's going on.
I'm not being naive, I'm being a realist. I eat, sleep, and breathe political campaigns. You think the major parties are clueless as to what is going on, but they know very well. If Ron Paul finishes in the top three (not just in one primary) of the overall Republican primary season I will be amazed beyond a reasonable doubt. I'd be happy because it shows hope in a failed political system, but the realistic side is that he, like Biden, Kucinich, Tancredo, Dodd, and Gravel have no shot at winning.
Sorry.
The GOP will do everything in their power to keep Ron Paul from capturing the nomination.
"Worse than traitors in arms are the men who pretend loyalty to the flag, feast and fatten on the misfortunes of the nation while patriotic blood is crimsoning the plains." -- Abraham Lincoln
Of course they know how many supporters he has. GOP strategists have been doing this for over a year. They know what's going on.
A majority of Ron Paul's support is not even a year old. There is no pattern to it other than a steep incline and to be able to gauge this incline would be impossible because it is unique and is not being steered by conventional campaign tools(ie the media).
Imagine all the newly registered Republicans demanding their party follow the principles of conservatism. The party is being taken over.
"While we won't know the final answer until January, what we do know is that there is very little relationship between what people who answer their phones tell the pollsters, and the activity of people who vote on and rate videos on YouTube," said Katie Delahaye Paine, CEO and head of the research project.
Goodbye polls and MSM guiding the voting hand in America. And good riddance.
"CNN is not reaching out to online communities by holding YouTube debates. CNN is undermining them and trying to co-opt them into their mainstream media narrative. They set a trap, bait it with national exposure, and then subtly tear down the very people they claim to respect. By moderating heavily, by not allowing users to vote on videos in any meaningful way, and by choosing style over substance, CNN is insulting the American people, not only those online who put their time into making serious questions for the candidates but those who watched thinking they were being treated to a real discussion on policy, politics, and values."
A cultural movement like one that would be needed to get a candidate like Ron Paul a party nomination from the Republican party would take YEARS to happen. You're talking a few short months/weeks. Could this be the start of something good? Yes, and I hope it is, BUT it's virtually impossible to happen.
I think you've got me in your head as someone who can't stand Ron Paul. I like the guy and I really hope he does well. However, from the political and realistic side of my brain I can say with 99.99999999999% certainty (because nothing is IMPOSSIBLE in politics) that Dr. Paul will not win the Republican nomination.
IF he finishes in the top three, you could see a move for Republicans to get back to their roots in the 2010 election to try to win some seats back in the Congress. You can't switch far right whack jobs to idealist's like Ron Paul in this short of a time though. I hope Ron Paul is the spark that gets this going though.
A cultural movement like one that would be needed to get a candidate like Ron Paul a party nomination from the Republican party would take YEARS to happen. You're talking a few short months/weeks. Could this be the start of something good? Yes, and I hope it is, BUT it's virtually impossible to happen.
The thing about this movement that gives it merit is that it is a cultural movement BACK to the roots and traditions of the GOP. If it were really that radical and far off, then it would be no movement at all and you would be free to call Paul a third tier candidate, but at this time you cannot. Reagan won his first term by a landslide, and many of the older generation are able to draw simularities between Ron Paul and Ronald Reagan domestic policy(although what was said by Reagan and what was done are different things).
People like yourself, stooges is the term I use, are being held to task and you are not used to it. You can easily dismiss me, but you cannot dismiss the 40000 people who gave $100 on November 5. How much money do you think he will raise on December 16?
Did anyone else notice a change of tone in some of the candidates talk during the debate? I noticed more than a few candidates adopting Paul policy..
The thing about this movement that gives it merit is that it is a cultural movement BACK to the roots and traditions of the GOP. If it were really that radical and far off, then it would be no movement at all and you would be free to call Paul a third tier candidate, but at this time you cannot. Reagan won his first term by a landslide, and many of the older generation are able to draw simularities between Ron Paul and Ronald Reagan domestic policy(although what was said by Reagan and what was done are different things).
People like yourself, stooges is the term I use, are being held to task and you are not used to it. You can easily dismiss me, but you cannot dismiss the 40000 people who gave $100 on November 5. How much money do you think he will raise on December 16?
Did anyone else notice a change of tone in some of the candidates talk during the debate? I noticed more than a few candidates adopting Paul policy..
You're calling me a stooge? You know what the problem with the Ron Paul supporters? It's the same thing that's wrong with the 9/11 Truthers. You're too pushy and you have it in your head that you've got it all figured out. What you are really doing is hurting your own cause because people view you as the lunatic fringe, and no one will look into Ron Paul because they assume that the only people who support him are nut jobs. Just like someone being serious in saying that the media used "cartoon planes" flying into the WTC to cover up the explosives planted in the building. You're hurting your own cause.
Politics and elections are my job, man. I study campaigns, I've worked on campaigns, and now work on the elections side of things. I'm not just blowing partisan mush up your crapper. You tell me how I'm being held to task? I've done my research and I know what candidate I'm supporting.
What you don't seem to understand is that at this point, what Dr. Paul is doing IS radical for a Republican. This isn't the Grand Old Party anymore. I would like to think that Dr. Paul's campaign could be the start of a movement back to the fundamentals of the Republican party, but it's not going to come to that point in 2008. There is no way that an anti-war Republican will get the nomination. No chance. He can raise all the money he wants (and I'm very excited as to what to expect from his Q4 fund raisings), but, December 16 leaves him 17 days before the Iowa primary and that's no where near enough time to make a move like what he needs to in Iowa. If he doesn't finish in the top three in Iowa then it's a lost cause.
You're calling me a stooge? You know what the problem with the Ron Paul supporters? It's the same thing that's wrong with the 9/11 Truthers. You're too pushy and you have it in your head that you've got it all figured out. What you are really doing is hurting your own cause because people view you as the lunatic fringe, and no one will look into Ron Paul because they assume that the only people who support him are nut jobs. Just like someone being serious in saying that the media used "cartoon planes" flying into the WTC to cover up the explosives planted in the building. You're hurting your own cause.
Politics and elections are my job, man. I study campaigns, I've worked on campaigns, and now work on the elections side of things. I'm not just blowing partisan mush up your crapper. You tell me how I'm being held to task? I've done my research and I know what candidate I'm supporting.
What you don't seem to understand is that at this point, what Dr. Paul is doing IS radical for a Republican. This isn't the Grand Old Party anymore. I would like to think that Dr. Paul's campaign could be the start of a movement back to the fundamentals of the Republican party, but it's not going to come to that point in 2008. There is no way that an anti-war Republican will get the nomination. No chance. He can raise all the money he wants (and I'm very excited as to what to expect from his Q4 fund raisings), but, December 16 leaves him 17 days before the Iowa primary and that's no where near enough time to make a move like what he needs to in Iowa. If he doesn't finish in the top three in Iowa then it's a lost cause.
Go on and belittle Ron Paul supporters all you want, it just shows that you are scared of him and that the status quo losing its grip on power. 40 000 people donated to his campaign in a single day... With all the media coverage the other candidates get that type of figure should be a walk in the park.
Oh ya, were too pushy? Turn on the TV and tell me their isn't a set agenda that were supposed to support. Ron Paul supporters wouldn't need to be pushy if the MSM did their job and reported fairly on the events. Instead they ram their own message home, day in and day out...and then send stooges to post on forums because they realize they are losing touch with people. Nice try...
You worked on campaigns and now you work on the election side of things? You mean partisan stooges are allowed access to voting machines? Do you throw out boxes of Paul supporters registrations papers?
It isn't the GOP anymore your right, but the party IS being subverted by true conservatives and I think you will be surprised to see that the party still has a conservative base that would have no problem supporting Ron Paul.
Go on and belittle Ron Paul supporters all you want, it just shows that you are scared of him and that the status quo losing its grip on power. 40 000 people donated to his campaign in a single day... With all the media coverage the other candidates get that type of figure should be a walk in the park.
Oh ya, were too pushy? Turn on the TV and tell me their isn't a set agenda that were supposed to support. Ron Paul supporters wouldn't need to be pushy if the MSM did their job and reported fairly on the events. Instead they ram their own message home, day in and day out...and then send stooges to post on forums because they realize they are losing touch with people. Nice try...
You worked on campaigns and now you work on the election side of things? You mean partisan stooges are allowed access to voting machines? Do you throw out boxes of Paul supporters registrations papers?
It isn't the GOP anymore your right, but the party IS being subverted by true conservatives and I think you will be surprised to see that the party still has a conservative base that would have no problem supporting Ron Paul.
I would vote for Ron Paul if I didn't think that he may bring some of these supporters with him into the Office. I actually have stated on this board that I support him. I am now looking for another candidate who may support many of the causes that I believe in.
Go on and belittle Ron Paul supporters all you want, it just shows that you are scared of him and that the status quo losing its grip on power. 40 000 people donated to his campaign in a single day... With all the media coverage the other candidates get that type of figure should be a walk in the park.
Oh ya, were too pushy? Turn on the TV and tell me their isn't a set agenda that were supposed to support. Ron Paul supporters wouldn't need to be pushy if the MSM did their job and reported fairly on the events. Instead they ram their own message home, day in and day out...and then send stooges to post on forums because they realize they are losing touch with people. Nice try...
You worked on campaigns and now you work on the election side of things? You mean partisan stooges are allowed access to voting machines? Do you throw out boxes of Paul supporters registrations papers?
It isn't the GOP anymore your right, but the party IS being subverted by true conservatives and I think you will be surprised to see that the party still has a conservative base that would have no problem supporting Ron Paul.
The only thing that worries me about Ron Paul is his supporters. I don't worry about him politically because I know he doesn't have a prayer in the world.
Yes, people who have worked on campaigns are allowed to work on elections---not to rig them like you think.
Comments
4% isn’t a number a winning campaign can be built upon? Learn some history, young padawan. Some pretty damn RECENT history.
Who were the most significant players in the last open primary we had in this country, Democrats in 2004?
John Kerry and John Edwards, by a lot.
Know what they were polling in mid-September 2003?
Try this. ABC poll on September 13th, 2003.
Lieberman 21
Dean 15
Kerry 14
Gephardt 14
Clark 6
Sharpton 5
Carol Mosley-Brown 4
Edwards 3
Gallup poll, same time
Lieberman 18
Gephardt 15
Dean 15
Kerry 12
Bob Graham 5
Edwards 5
CBS/NYT, a little later, Sept 28th:
Clark 14
Dean 9
Gephardt 5
Lieberman 5
Kerry 4
Edwards 1
By November, Kerry was polling at about 7, Edwards at about 3.
Edwards never got above single digits until the day of Iowa voting.
-source
WHO WAS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE IN 2004 !?!?!
If I opened it now would you not understand?
There's a big difference between September 2003 and December of 2007. My point has been all along that it's too late. Go back a couple of posts and you'll see where I point out the "35 days before an election". Let's not forget that the primaries have been moved up, so September 2003 would be more like August of 2007.
The thing that got Kerry those bumps were the debates. There weren't a million debates in 03 like there have been this year, so he could use those to his advantage. At this point of the game Paul is still trailing by a significant number, with only a couple of debates to go before the Iowa caucus.
One thing that will help Paul is when he announces his fund raising, he'll get a slight bump, but it will be no where near enough.
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm
did you see the end of the debate on the keeping them honest portion? the only thing they found "wrong" with what paul said, was that he said he had 5K supporters, it was more like 2K (i think). They didn't have a problem (at least with honesty) with what he said re: the issues and his statements.
Yeah there is a big difference, the GOP have NO CLUE how many Ron Paul supporters are out there. In past races the base of the party went out to vote and the number of people voting was predictable.
You got to spend it all
You're right, I'm sure the GOP has no clue about Ron Paul's supporters. Are you serious? He's on their radar believe me. He's huge in college towns and has raised a shit load of money. They're paying close attention to him and his supporters. To think that this is some shift in culture for the Republican side of things and that Paul is going to rise from nowhere like a phoenix is frankly naive.
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm
Of course he's on the radar, but they are unable to poll his supporters like they are able to poll the old guard.
We will know who is naive in a few months.
You got to spend it all
Of course they know how many supporters he has. GOP strategists have been doing this for over a year. They know what's going on.
I'm not being naive, I'm being a realist. I eat, sleep, and breathe political campaigns. You think the major parties are clueless as to what is going on, but they know very well. If Ron Paul finishes in the top three (not just in one primary) of the overall Republican primary season I will be amazed beyond a reasonable doubt. I'd be happy because it shows hope in a failed political system, but the realistic side is that he, like Biden, Kucinich, Tancredo, Dodd, and Gravel have no shot at winning.
Sorry.
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm
The GOP will do everything in their power to keep Ron Paul from capturing the nomination.
If they had to they would. At this point they don't have to do anything, but if they had to I am sure they would try to stop him.
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm
A majority of Ron Paul's support is not even a year old. There is no pattern to it other than a steep incline and to be able to gauge this incline would be impossible because it is unique and is not being steered by conventional campaign tools(ie the media).
Imagine all the newly registered Republicans demanding their party follow the principles of conservatism. The party is being taken over.
You got to spend it all
Goodbye polls and MSM guiding the voting hand in America. And good riddance.
You got to spend it all
http://www.techpresident.com/blog/entry/14238/how_cnn_demeans_the_internet
"CNN is not reaching out to online communities by holding YouTube debates. CNN is undermining them and trying to co-opt them into their mainstream media narrative. They set a trap, bait it with national exposure, and then subtly tear down the very people they claim to respect. By moderating heavily, by not allowing users to vote on videos in any meaningful way, and by choosing style over substance, CNN is insulting the American people, not only those online who put their time into making serious questions for the candidates but those who watched thinking they were being treated to a real discussion on policy, politics, and values."
You got to spend it all
I think you've got me in your head as someone who can't stand Ron Paul. I like the guy and I really hope he does well. However, from the political and realistic side of my brain I can say with 99.99999999999% certainty (because nothing is IMPOSSIBLE in politics) that Dr. Paul will not win the Republican nomination.
IF he finishes in the top three, you could see a move for Republicans to get back to their roots in the 2010 election to try to win some seats back in the Congress. You can't switch far right whack jobs to idealist's like Ron Paul in this short of a time though. I hope Ron Paul is the spark that gets this going though.
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm
The thing about this movement that gives it merit is that it is a cultural movement BACK to the roots and traditions of the GOP. If it were really that radical and far off, then it would be no movement at all and you would be free to call Paul a third tier candidate, but at this time you cannot. Reagan won his first term by a landslide, and many of the older generation are able to draw simularities between Ron Paul and Ronald Reagan domestic policy(although what was said by Reagan and what was done are different things).
People like yourself, stooges is the term I use, are being held to task and you are not used to it. You can easily dismiss me, but you cannot dismiss the 40000 people who gave $100 on November 5. How much money do you think he will raise on December 16?
Did anyone else notice a change of tone in some of the candidates talk during the debate? I noticed more than a few candidates adopting Paul policy..
You got to spend it all
You're calling me a stooge? You know what the problem with the Ron Paul supporters? It's the same thing that's wrong with the 9/11 Truthers. You're too pushy and you have it in your head that you've got it all figured out. What you are really doing is hurting your own cause because people view you as the lunatic fringe, and no one will look into Ron Paul because they assume that the only people who support him are nut jobs. Just like someone being serious in saying that the media used "cartoon planes" flying into the WTC to cover up the explosives planted in the building. You're hurting your own cause.
Politics and elections are my job, man. I study campaigns, I've worked on campaigns, and now work on the elections side of things. I'm not just blowing partisan mush up your crapper. You tell me how I'm being held to task? I've done my research and I know what candidate I'm supporting.
What you don't seem to understand is that at this point, what Dr. Paul is doing IS radical for a Republican. This isn't the Grand Old Party anymore. I would like to think that Dr. Paul's campaign could be the start of a movement back to the fundamentals of the Republican party, but it's not going to come to that point in 2008. There is no way that an anti-war Republican will get the nomination. No chance. He can raise all the money he wants (and I'm very excited as to what to expect from his Q4 fund raisings), but, December 16 leaves him 17 days before the Iowa primary and that's no where near enough time to make a move like what he needs to in Iowa. If he doesn't finish in the top three in Iowa then it's a lost cause.
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm
Go on and belittle Ron Paul supporters all you want, it just shows that you are scared of him and that the status quo losing its grip on power. 40 000 people donated to his campaign in a single day... With all the media coverage the other candidates get that type of figure should be a walk in the park.
Oh ya, were too pushy? Turn on the TV and tell me their isn't a set agenda that were supposed to support. Ron Paul supporters wouldn't need to be pushy if the MSM did their job and reported fairly on the events. Instead they ram their own message home, day in and day out...and then send stooges to post on forums because they realize they are losing touch with people. Nice try...
You worked on campaigns and now you work on the election side of things? You mean partisan stooges are allowed access to voting machines? Do you throw out boxes of Paul supporters registrations papers?
It isn't the GOP anymore your right, but the party IS being subverted by true conservatives and I think you will be surprised to see that the party still has a conservative base that would have no problem supporting Ron Paul.
You got to spend it all
I would vote for Ron Paul if I didn't think that he may bring some of these supporters with him into the Office. I actually have stated on this board that I support him. I am now looking for another candidate who may support many of the causes that I believe in.
The only thing that worries me about Ron Paul is his supporters. I don't worry about him politically because I know he doesn't have a prayer in the world.
Yes, people who have worked on campaigns are allowed to work on elections---not to rig them like you think.
http://www.reverbnation.com/brianzilm