i quit this past weekend... but i'd buy a pack just to be a smug bastard
as to the earthquake and your newfound beachfront property... wasn't that how lex luthor was going to become rich in the old superman movie?
Haha!!! That's right!
:( Didn't work for him either!
My friends lived in a house that had a rickety platform with a deck on top on the edge of hill in the backyard built to fall down in an earthquake. They used to have a party every time the "big one" was predicted. I was up there for a party when Nostradamus said the big one was coming and zilch.
Fun night! The news was filmed us once as we were stting back on deck chairs with cold ones, waiting.
I guess that was more waiting for the bottom to fall out than the sky falling, though, so that has nothing to do with this thread.
Congrats on quitting smoking. :cool:
Be kind, man
Don't be mankind. ~Captain Beefheart
__________________________________
I've been around for a while, and the worst economy I can remember was 1980.
Nothing like a little perspective. I was around then, too. Anyone who thinks this is the bottom falling out doesn't remember the malaise of the Carter days. Double digit interest rates, double digit inflation, gas shortages, doom & gloom for sure.
"I'll use the magic word - let's just shut the fuck up, please." EV, 04/13/08
Nothing like a little perspective. I was around then, too. Anyone who thinks this is the bottom falling out doesn't remember the malaise of the Carter days. Double digit interest rates, double digit inflation, gas shortages, doom & gloom for sure.
...
Add... the Iranians held our diplomats hostage, The Ayatollah being called the 'Anti-Christ', terrorist attacks against American interests abroad, the Soviet Union pointing nukes at us, the spectre of the year 1984 looming in the very near future.
It was surely the End of the world.
Allen Fieldhouse, home of the 2008 NCAA men's Basketball Champions! Go Jayhawks!
Hail, Hail!!!
Nothing like a little perspective. I was around then, too. Anyone who thinks this is the bottom falling out doesn't remember the malaise of the Carter days. Double digit interest rates, double digit inflation, gas shortages, doom & gloom for sure.
Home mortgage rates were 17 % versus 6-7% today.
Gas on even or odd days according to your license plate #, then waiting for an hour or two in line.
I don't foresee high interest in the near future, but we may be waiting in line for gas someday.
That doesn't make this economy better, though. If all the countries in the world banded together , sure they could take down our economy, but it isn't in their best interest. We just need to learn to adjust to the global economy and embrace it and use it. That's what's happening now.
To me as a person, the key is to live within my means.
I probably can fix the economy by myself! If I go out and buy gold today at $835 I can guarantee you it'll be down to $450 next week!
If I buy Halliburton stock today, the war will be over tomorrow, and their stock will crash. :cool:
That's what happens whenever I buy a stock! Haha,, they always plummet right after I get them. I should start a warning newsletter.
Be kind, man
Don't be mankind. ~Captain Beefheart
__________________________________
...
Add... the Iranians held our diplomats hostage, The Ayatollah being called the 'Anti-Christ', terrorist attacks against American interests abroad, the Soviet Union pointing nukes at us, the spectre of the year 1984 looming in the very near future.
It was surely the End of the world.
Reagan shot was shot, and Al Haig was in control for a few minutes and we STILL made it through!
Kind of ironic. I was living out your way during that time, and I was having the time of my life!
Crisis? What crisis?
Be kind, man
Don't be mankind. ~Captain Beefheart
__________________________________
Reagan shot was shot, and Al Haig was in control for a few minutes and we STILL made it through!
Kind of ironic. I was living out your way during that time, and I was having the time of my life!
Crisis? What crisis?
...
It's not just us...
I'm sure there were people predicting these are the End Of Days when...
The Atomic Bomb Was Born...
And after World War I (first time we saw aerial combat) and later the Stock Market Crash... and the Spanish Influenza...
And before that.. the black plague that swept through Europe...
And before that... the Fall of Rome.
...
I'm guessing as long as Man has been around, there have been predictions of the end during their lifetimes.
Allen Fieldhouse, home of the 2008 NCAA men's Basketball Champions! Go Jayhawks!
Hail, Hail!!!
The credit bailout this time around will be cheaper than the S&L bailout. Do you want to know why? Because there won't be much of a bailout. What you're forgetting is that the S&L crisis affected small thrifts, not hugemultinational banks. The major financial institutions involved in this credit situation are going to be able to withstand the losses and the government is not showing signs of enacting an extensive bailout for the individuals affected. This is wise policy.
Your fears of inflation are well-reasoned. But US inflation is not going to hit even the levels of the 70s anytime soon. Yes today's inflation is setting up tomorrow's collapse, but the dollar has to inflate massively to cause such a collapse. That's not going to happen at inflationary levels under 5%.
Shit runs down hill in the financial world and there is NO way a multinational bank will take a loss, they will off load the liabilities to their customers/debtors.
Does the inflation rate take into account the value of the dollar compared to other currencies? If it does, then there is daily movement upwards on the rate of inflation.
"The dollar fell to the lowest in 30 years against a basket of six rivals today after Chinese officials said they plan to move some of the nation's $1.43 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves into stronger currencies."
Nothing like a little perspective. I was around then, too. Anyone who thinks this is the bottom falling out doesn't remember the malaise of the Carter days. Double digit interest rates, double digit inflation, gas shortages, doom & gloom for sure.
Well, i think we are about to see double digit inflation, for starters. As soon as the Fed announces their plan to bail out this whole SIV fiasco, the shit will start REALLY hitting the fan.
When we have to go and print close to a trillion dollars in a day, you will see the dollar nose dive and the inflation numbers go waaay up.
Sadly, interest rates will probably continue to decline ... my guess is we see two more guaranteed, and then a third one probably around februrary highly debated from within the Fed ...
I've still yet to make up my mind on if raising rates is a good or bad idea.
I do believe that it causes immediate shortages for the economy and therefore does pose very real economic harms to business. HOWEVER, the opposite approach is still untested ... the 1929 crash saw massive DEflation ... where the money supply was cut by over 20% in 5 years.
I'm not sure WHAT would happen if the Fed actualy started spitting out more dollars.
I think it could be argued that in the stock market crash it may have been a good thing. I mean, inflating your money supply is never "good", but it may have actualy eased the desperation of the economy.
BUT our situation is drasticaly different.
We are dealing not with a strong dollar & housing market and a bad stock market; instead the EXACT opposite.
We have an incredibly weak, unstable spiraling down dollar (no, i'm not being "alarmist" this broad and deep pessimism is absolutely RAMPANT even on MSNBC, especially on MSNBC -- a source you gurus take much stock in, aparently) a horribly disturbed housing market that is actualy still on the cliff but about to jump off with the whole as ye to unfold SIV bust ... and ... oddly a stockmarket that is still stagnant -- dicey to be sure, but at the same 1300 mark we've seen for a long while.
My theory on the stockmarket? The large percentage of investors simply have NOWHERE ELSE TO GO! Most of them will never grasp the concept of gold (until its way too late) [and why should they? It is supposed to be wealth preservation vehicle, not a growth one and they are interested in growth] Most institutional investors are not going to be willing to accept the risk of large holdings in overseas markets (china is nortoriously volatile) and there are few markets even large enough to accomodate all that money efficiently, so people are stuck in the US markets which is why they go down 200 points when some institutions pull out for a day to think and then it goes up 200 the next day when they dump their cash right back into another sector!
OH
And gas shortages are next on the list too, buddy.
You guys are so incredibly caught up in the EXACT moment you are in that you cant see the forrest for the trees.
When i said throw your money in to gold 2 months ago, you all fucking laughed at me like a fool ... now the gold has DOUBLED IN VALUE. What exactly have your stocks been doing? OR YOUR DOLLARS?
Seriously, i'll try not to be accusatory, but think about it fellas. I'm not an idiot, i saw a realy volatility and warning signs that the economy was sputtering (in what i believe to be violent death spasms) and on the verge of very real trauma -- SIV crisis, housing market plummet, oil prices, foreign investors fleeing in fear, overspending, banks horribly overextended, a government bailout, inflation -- thta shit is ADDING UP boys! It is going to be a real fucking shit storm.
Sure, i COULD be wrong. SIV could turn out to be nothing. But that is NOT what they are saying. They are saying WORSE THAN S&L and that is HORRIBLE! That alone will give you the Carter days. BUT WE HAVE A DOLLAR THAT IS IN THE SHITTER.
Add that to the mix and you are starting to see the problems.
Throw in the fact that not only are the banks about to be on their knees because of over lending to risky debtors, but you are going to see the government FORCED to bail them out!
WHY would the government do that?
BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO!
The least of reasons being that the same goddamn banks that OWN the federal reserve (bank of america, citibank, and jp morgan three LARGEST owners of the NY Fed!) are the ones in trouble -- have you read or heard about Citigroup recently !?!
The more fundamental reason is that there truly is a problem with the banks going bankrupt causing immediate short term catastrophes for the economy. The BIGGEST problem being that Fed can literaly NOT PRINT ENOUGH MONEY to guarantee all those FDIC deposits.
The ONLY thing they can do is "GUARANTEE" loans to these banks. Put OUR name on the line for loans, so that the banks can lend themselves more money (which comes as credits on computer screens straight from the Fed as inflation) and right their balance books accordingly ... works like "magic"
EXCEPT FOR THE INFLATION.
This time it JUST WONT WORK.
The dollar is already on crutches ... and those are cracked ... you cant add the inflationary weight to the poor thing ... THE BOTTOM WILL FALL OUT!
:( :( :(
Do you guys really not see any of this?
Tell me this -- do you disagree with my description of what will happen regarding the SIV crisis and the Fed bail out if the numbers are as bad or WORSE than they predict ($500 billion bail out early prediction -- S&L early prediction was $125 billion, turned out to be 1.8 TRILLION)
OR DO YOU JUST DISAGREE THAT IT WILL BE THAT BAD?
Which is it?
Because i respect you if you just think its small disturbances and corrections, and SIV just wont come to that.
But if you think it WILL come to bailout and inflation, you are pushing on blind not to see that it will cripple us.
And if "cripple" isn't good enough to scare you, just wait a year until the earth gets even warmer and oil goes well past 100 a barrel ... then cripple will become "parpelegic"!
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Progress is not made by everyone joining some new fad,
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
The worst part of this explanation?
That the cash provided by the Federal "Reserve" is being used by the banks to boost their balance sheet assets by WHAT ?!?
BY INVESTING IN STOCK "SHORTS" ...
THE BANKS ARE FAILING, SO TO COVER THEIR LOSSES IN REAL ESTATE, THEY ARE INVESTING IN BETS THAT THE STOCK MARKET WILL FALL IN PRICE !?!
HOLY SHIT!
Seriously.
All caps aside.
We are looking more and more fucked by the HOUR!
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
There is always an inverse relation between the number of capital letters in a post and the author's understanding of his own words.
A definite candidate if I want to change my sig line.
Peace
Dan
"YOU [humans] NEED TO BELIEVE IN THINGS THAT AREN'T TRUE. HOW ELSE CAN THEY BECOME?" - Death
"Every judgment teeters on the brink of error. To claim absolute knowledge is to become monstrous. Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty." - Frank Herbert, Dune, 1965
After reading all these pages, I realized you're all basically saying the same thing (well almost) :
dbts : the price of gold is getting higher, it's sucks and things will get worse.
ffg/jeffbr : the price of gold is getting higher but it already has in the past. In fact it was worse in past so today sucks but things can still get worse.
My memory may be a little shady on this, but in 1979 I recall the gold price skyrocketing for awhile. In fact, I think it went up over $800 at that time, too. That was the same year we were seeing long lines at the gas station for the "oil shortage."
When i said throw your money in to gold 2 months ago, you all fucking laughed at me like a fool ... now the gold has DOUBLED IN VALUE. What exactly have your stocks been doing? OR YOUR DOLLARS?
Do you guys really not see any of this?
Tell me this -- do you disagree with my description of what will happen regarding the SIV crisis and the Fed bail out if the numbers are as bad or WORSE than they predict ($500 billion bail out early prediction -- S&L early prediction was $125 billion, turned out to be 1.8 TRILLION)
OR DO YOU JUST DISAGREE THAT IT WILL BE THAT BAD?
Which is it?
i just think you're an alarmist and a hypocrite who gets a bizarre pleasure out of your histrionics and panicking. why do i think this? have you sold all your stocks, emptied your savings, and bought gold yet? put your money where your mouth is, then i might take you seriously. otherwise, your rambling is about as compelling as listening to guys debate the strengths of their fantasy football teams... sure it's interesting talk if you're into that sort of thing, but it has no effect on anyone else's real life.
After reading all these pages, I realized you're all basically saying the same thing (well almost) :
dbts : the price of gold is getting higher, it's sucks and things will get worse.
ffg/jeffbr : the price of gold is getting higher but it already has in the past. In fact it was worse in past so today sucks but things can still get worse.
you forgot about onelongsong: the apocalypse is coming and within 5 years we will be living like the 1880's, bartering with gold, enforcing laws ourselves, and you won't be able to buy a pack of smokes at 7-11.
Hehe...thanks. You do need to change your sig, or at least the Herbert quote. It's self-defeating.
Why, it's not at all self defeating. Just a constant reminder and warning.
But sticking with Death a while longer. You're on my shortlist.
Peace
Dan
"YOU [humans] NEED TO BELIEVE IN THINGS THAT AREN'T TRUE. HOW ELSE CAN THEY BECOME?" - Death
"Every judgment teeters on the brink of error. To claim absolute knowledge is to become monstrous. Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty." - Frank Herbert, Dune, 1965
Nice. Well, I am not going to liquidate assets to put $100k in an account somewhere for five years earning money market rates. I'll stand by my previous bet, we can keep our money working for us in our own ways, draw up a contract if you like (I'm sure we could be creative and make the contract something that doesn't directly point to gambling), and at a 5 year anniversary the losing party can wire funds, or send gold coins by pony express or river boat.
it's not worth the trouble for chump change. and with every bet i've ever made; the money is put in an escrow account. if not; it's not really a bet. when you play poker; you put the money up right then and there. if you're not willing to pony up; you don't have much faith in your theories. the other side of the coin is that if i'm right; you won't be able to pay. that's why i want the money converted to gold and held in a saftey deposit box. if banks or banking as we know it ; how do you expect to wire money? you could also claim that gambling is illegal and hence the courts won't uphold it. i've been through that. gambling is legal in nevada and will be upheld. nice way to back out though. if 100K is too much; how about 50K? i guess i could go to 20K. anything less is playing the penny slots. i've got a friend in florida with a house on the ocean who bet he wouldn't be evacuating by 2011. he followed the rules of gambling. and i can't wait to collect.
...
Add... the Iranians held our diplomats hostage, The Ayatollah being called the 'Anti-Christ', terrorist attacks against American interests abroad, the Soviet Union pointing nukes at us, the spectre of the year 1984 looming in the very near future.
It was surely the End of the world.
as i remember; we didn't have that in 1928. there are different factors involved here. just as any time in history. you could also say that the knights templar aren't stockpiling europes money now. the ice is melting. nobody can deny that. 2/3 of the population of the world live near water. nobody can deny that. you can still find coral in arizona south of the mogolon rim. nobody can deny that. last time the earth didn't have ice cover; the ocean covered 90% of arizona. where do you think the desert sand came from?
no matter who you want to blame global warming on; any intelligent person can put simple facts together. it's not the end of the world. not for everyone. it's the end of the world as we know it now. those who adapt; will survive.
i just think you're an alarmist and a hypocrite who gets a bizarre pleasure out of your histrionics and panicking. why do i think this? have you sold all your stocks, emptied your savings, and bought gold yet? put your money where your mouth is, then i might take you seriously. otherwise, your rambling is about as compelling as listening to guys debate the strengths of their fantasy football teams... sure it's interesting talk if you're into that sort of thing, but it has no effect on anyone else's real life.
let's not forget that if you have a mortgage then; the bank won't be able to collect. any investment is a crap shoot. i don't care what the investment is. but see my post to cosmo above. drifting is putting the events of the world together and looking back to what happened last time. that is a successful investor. when NYC begins to flood; what do you think the market will do? the ice is melting and the water is rising. that is cold hard facts. verified by expeditions to the areas and also new nasa satellite technologies. nasa watched 1250 square miles of antartica dissapear into the ocean in 3 weeks. that area happened to hold the land ice from falling into the ocean.
why not watch the science channel for a couple weeks instead of are you smarter than a 5th grader. you'll see what's really happening. you won't see it on the nightly news until it's a disaster.
CNBC @ 12:25pm -- A Commentator from the NYSE floor is put on in response to this Fed Q&A Session ... he leads with "Ron Paul was firing every pistol in his arsenal at Bernake, and a LOT of people down here on the floor were cheering!"
THIS IS REALLY SERIOUS.
Investors on the EXCHANGE FLOOR are cheering for the guy who is foreseeing doom & gloom.
What does THAT say !?!
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
let's not forget that if you have a mortgage then; the bank won't be able to collect. any investment is a crap shoot. i don't care what the investment is. but see my post to cosmo above. drifting is putting the events of the world together and looking back to what happened last time. that is a successful investor. when NYC begins to flood; what do you think the market will do? the ice is melting and the water is rising. that is cold hard facts. verified by expeditions to the areas and also new nasa satellite technologies. nasa watched 1250 square miles of antartica dissapear into the ocean in 3 weeks. that area happened to hold the land ice from falling into the ocean.
why not watch the science channel for a couple weeks instead of are you smarter than a 5th grader. you'll see what's really happening. you won't see it on the nightly news until it's a disaster.
i don't watch tv. and i've got no money to worry about investing or losing. like i said, none of this affects me. all it means is there's going to be a lot of opportunity for me to litigate bankruptcy claims. bring on the boom!
CNBC @ 12:25pm -- A Commentator from the NYSE floor is put on in response to this Fed Q&A Session ... he leads with "Ron Paul was firing every pistol in his arsenal at Bernake, and a LOT of people down here on the floor were cheering!"
THIS IS REALLY SERIOUS.
Investors on the EXCHANGE FLOOR are cheering for the guy who is foreseeing doom & gloom.
What does THAT say !?!
have you cashed in to buy gold yet?
you might want to change your shorts too. it can't be comfortable sitting there pissing yourself all day.
so how long do i have? 24 hours? when does the world collapse and the sun go dark? should i be at walmart stocking up on ammo to handle the anarchy and rioting and looting and pillaging that is imminent? should i go stock up on smokes right now before 7-11 stops selling them? please give me some answers quick so i know what to do when i get back from confession. i want to be ready when the anti-christ arrives and jesus starts collecting his followers. this is the end times people! flee! flee for your lives!
CNBC @ 12:25pm -- A Commentator from the NYSE floor is put on in response to this Fed Q&A Session ... he leads with "Ron Paul was firing every pistol in his arsenal at Bernake, and a LOT of people down here on the floor were cheering!"
THIS IS REALLY SERIOUS.
Investors on the EXCHANGE FLOOR are cheering for the guy who is foreseeing doom & gloom.
What does THAT say !?!
Same guy from the NYSE floor says "i've been down here asking guys what they think about the possibility of a rate cut in the spring, and they've all been saying they think that inflationary pressure on the dollar by December will be so bad that they don't think the Fed will be able to ease."
Translation: Just what i've been saying here.
The dollar will continue to sink in value. The weakness of the dollar is amplified by cutting rates (which just means banks can borrow more & cheaper money from The Fed which means more inflation) and therefore the Fed WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CUT RATES for fear of causing the dollar to spiral down.
This is SO SO SO not good.
People come on.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Same guy from the NYSE floor says "i've been down here asking guys what they think about the possibility of a rate cut in the spring, and they've all been saying they think that inflationary pressure on the dollar by December will be so bad that they don't think the Fed will be able to ease."
Translation: Just what i've been saying here.
The dollar will continue to sink in value. The weakness of the dollar is amplified by cutting rates (which just means banks can borrow more & cheaper money from The Fed which means more inflation) and therefore the Fed WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CUT RATES for fear of causing the dollar to spiral down.
BTW, if i sell all my stock, i have to pay off all my margin loans, and pay a WHOLE LOT of capital gains,
i would be left with about a measley $2,500...
it just doesn't work financialy for me.
I'm kind of screwed if i do, screwed if i dont.
I don't think that makes me a hypocrite.
It just makes me nearly broke either way you cut it.
It doesn't make sense for me.
My only hope is to find myself a house or two to invest in and leverage my stocks MORE, and pray that the poor sap renting my house can still somehow afford to rent it.
Otherwise i'm screwed.
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Comments
Haha!!! That's right!
:( Didn't work for him either!
My friends lived in a house that had a rickety platform with a deck on top on the edge of hill in the backyard built to fall down in an earthquake. They used to have a party every time the "big one" was predicted. I was up there for a party when Nostradamus said the big one was coming and zilch.
Fun night! The news was filmed us once as we were stting back on deck chairs with cold ones, waiting.
I guess that was more waiting for the bottom to fall out than the sky falling, though, so that has nothing to do with this thread.
Congrats on quitting smoking. :cool:
Don't be mankind. ~Captain Beefheart
__________________________________
Nothing like a little perspective. I was around then, too. Anyone who thinks this is the bottom falling out doesn't remember the malaise of the Carter days. Double digit interest rates, double digit inflation, gas shortages, doom & gloom for sure.
Add... the Iranians held our diplomats hostage, The Ayatollah being called the 'Anti-Christ', terrorist attacks against American interests abroad, the Soviet Union pointing nukes at us, the spectre of the year 1984 looming in the very near future.
It was surely the End of the world.
Hail, Hail!!!
Home mortgage rates were 17 % versus 6-7% today.
Gas on even or odd days according to your license plate #, then waiting for an hour or two in line.
I don't foresee high interest in the near future, but we may be waiting in line for gas someday.
That doesn't make this economy better, though. If all the countries in the world banded together , sure they could take down our economy, but it isn't in their best interest. We just need to learn to adjust to the global economy and embrace it and use it. That's what's happening now.
To me as a person, the key is to live within my means.
I probably can fix the economy by myself! If I go out and buy gold today at $835 I can guarantee you it'll be down to $450 next week!
If I buy Halliburton stock today, the war will be over tomorrow, and their stock will crash. :cool:
That's what happens whenever I buy a stock! Haha,, they always plummet right after I get them. I should start a warning newsletter.
Don't be mankind. ~Captain Beefheart
__________________________________
Reagan shot was shot, and Al Haig was in control for a few minutes and we STILL made it through!
Kind of ironic. I was living out your way during that time, and I was having the time of my life!
Crisis? What crisis?
Don't be mankind. ~Captain Beefheart
__________________________________
It's not just us...
I'm sure there were people predicting these are the End Of Days when...
The Atomic Bomb Was Born...
And after World War I (first time we saw aerial combat) and later the Stock Market Crash... and the Spanish Influenza...
And before that.. the black plague that swept through Europe...
And before that... the Fall of Rome.
...
I'm guessing as long as Man has been around, there have been predictions of the end during their lifetimes.
Hail, Hail!!!
Shit runs down hill in the financial world and there is NO way a multinational bank will take a loss, they will off load the liabilities to their customers/debtors.
Does the inflation rate take into account the value of the dollar compared to other currencies? If it does, then there is daily movement upwards on the rate of inflation.
"The dollar fell to the lowest in 30 years against a basket of six rivals today after Chinese officials said they plan to move some of the nation's $1.43 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves into stronger currencies."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEYI261BaJYA&refer=home
You got to spend it all
Well, i think we are about to see double digit inflation, for starters. As soon as the Fed announces their plan to bail out this whole SIV fiasco, the shit will start REALLY hitting the fan.
When we have to go and print close to a trillion dollars in a day, you will see the dollar nose dive and the inflation numbers go waaay up.
Sadly, interest rates will probably continue to decline ... my guess is we see two more guaranteed, and then a third one probably around februrary highly debated from within the Fed ...
I've still yet to make up my mind on if raising rates is a good or bad idea.
I do believe that it causes immediate shortages for the economy and therefore does pose very real economic harms to business. HOWEVER, the opposite approach is still untested ... the 1929 crash saw massive DEflation ... where the money supply was cut by over 20% in 5 years.
I'm not sure WHAT would happen if the Fed actualy started spitting out more dollars.
I think it could be argued that in the stock market crash it may have been a good thing. I mean, inflating your money supply is never "good", but it may have actualy eased the desperation of the economy.
BUT our situation is drasticaly different.
We are dealing not with a strong dollar & housing market and a bad stock market; instead the EXACT opposite.
We have an incredibly weak, unstable spiraling down dollar (no, i'm not being "alarmist" this broad and deep pessimism is absolutely RAMPANT even on MSNBC, especially on MSNBC -- a source you gurus take much stock in, aparently) a horribly disturbed housing market that is actualy still on the cliff but about to jump off with the whole as ye to unfold SIV bust ... and ... oddly a stockmarket that is still stagnant -- dicey to be sure, but at the same 1300 mark we've seen for a long while.
My theory on the stockmarket? The large percentage of investors simply have NOWHERE ELSE TO GO! Most of them will never grasp the concept of gold (until its way too late) [and why should they? It is supposed to be wealth preservation vehicle, not a growth one and they are interested in growth] Most institutional investors are not going to be willing to accept the risk of large holdings in overseas markets (china is nortoriously volatile) and there are few markets even large enough to accomodate all that money efficiently, so people are stuck in the US markets which is why they go down 200 points when some institutions pull out for a day to think and then it goes up 200 the next day when they dump their cash right back into another sector!
OH
And gas shortages are next on the list too, buddy.
You guys are so incredibly caught up in the EXACT moment you are in that you cant see the forrest for the trees.
When i said throw your money in to gold 2 months ago, you all fucking laughed at me like a fool ... now the gold has DOUBLED IN VALUE. What exactly have your stocks been doing? OR YOUR DOLLARS?
Seriously, i'll try not to be accusatory, but think about it fellas. I'm not an idiot, i saw a realy volatility and warning signs that the economy was sputtering (in what i believe to be violent death spasms) and on the verge of very real trauma -- SIV crisis, housing market plummet, oil prices, foreign investors fleeing in fear, overspending, banks horribly overextended, a government bailout, inflation -- thta shit is ADDING UP boys! It is going to be a real fucking shit storm.
Sure, i COULD be wrong. SIV could turn out to be nothing. But that is NOT what they are saying. They are saying WORSE THAN S&L and that is HORRIBLE! That alone will give you the Carter days. BUT WE HAVE A DOLLAR THAT IS IN THE SHITTER.
Add that to the mix and you are starting to see the problems.
Throw in the fact that not only are the banks about to be on their knees because of over lending to risky debtors, but you are going to see the government FORCED to bail them out!
WHY would the government do that?
BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO!
The least of reasons being that the same goddamn banks that OWN the federal reserve (bank of america, citibank, and jp morgan three LARGEST owners of the NY Fed!) are the ones in trouble -- have you read or heard about Citigroup recently !?!
The more fundamental reason is that there truly is a problem with the banks going bankrupt causing immediate short term catastrophes for the economy. The BIGGEST problem being that Fed can literaly NOT PRINT ENOUGH MONEY to guarantee all those FDIC deposits.
The ONLY thing they can do is "GUARANTEE" loans to these banks. Put OUR name on the line for loans, so that the banks can lend themselves more money (which comes as credits on computer screens straight from the Fed as inflation) and right their balance books accordingly ... works like "magic"
EXCEPT FOR THE INFLATION.
This time it JUST WONT WORK.
The dollar is already on crutches ... and those are cracked ... you cant add the inflationary weight to the poor thing ... THE BOTTOM WILL FALL OUT!
:( :( :(
Do you guys really not see any of this?
Tell me this -- do you disagree with my description of what will happen regarding the SIV crisis and the Fed bail out if the numbers are as bad or WORSE than they predict ($500 billion bail out early prediction -- S&L early prediction was $125 billion, turned out to be 1.8 TRILLION)
OR DO YOU JUST DISAGREE THAT IT WILL BE THAT BAD?
Which is it?
Because i respect you if you just think its small disturbances and corrections, and SIV just wont come to that.
But if you think it WILL come to bailout and inflation, you are pushing on blind not to see that it will cripple us.
And if "cripple" isn't good enough to scare you, just wait a year until the earth gets even warmer and oil goes well past 100 a barrel ... then cripple will become "parpelegic"!
If I opened it now would you not understand?
http://www.inteldaily.com/?c=173&a=4148
Paul Volcker:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Volcker
and reveling in it's loyalty. It's made by forming coalitions
over specific principles, goals, and policies.
http://i36.tinypic.com/66j31x.jpg
(\__/)
( o.O)
(")_(")
JESUS H. CHIRST!
The worst part of this explanation?
That the cash provided by the Federal "Reserve" is being used by the banks to boost their balance sheet assets by WHAT ?!?
BY INVESTING IN STOCK "SHORTS" ...
THE BANKS ARE FAILING, SO TO COVER THEIR LOSSES IN REAL ESTATE, THEY ARE INVESTING IN BETS THAT THE STOCK MARKET WILL FALL IN PRICE !?!
HOLY SHIT!
Seriously.
All caps aside.
We are looking more and more fucked by the HOUR!
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Peace
Dan
"Every judgment teeters on the brink of error. To claim absolute knowledge is to become monstrous. Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty." - Frank Herbert, Dune, 1965
dbts : the price of gold is getting higher, it's sucks and things will get worse.
ffg/jeffbr : the price of gold is getting higher but it already has in the past. In fact it was worse in past so today sucks but things can still get worse.
My memory may be a little shady on this, but in 1979 I recall the gold price skyrocketing for awhile. In fact, I think it went up over $800 at that time, too. That was the same year we were seeing long lines at the gas station for the "oil shortage."
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Hehe...thanks. You do need to change your sig, or at least the Herbert quote. It's self-defeating.
i just think you're an alarmist and a hypocrite who gets a bizarre pleasure out of your histrionics and panicking. why do i think this? have you sold all your stocks, emptied your savings, and bought gold yet? put your money where your mouth is, then i might take you seriously. otherwise, your rambling is about as compelling as listening to guys debate the strengths of their fantasy football teams... sure it's interesting talk if you're into that sort of thing, but it has no effect on anyone else's real life.
you forgot about onelongsong: the apocalypse is coming and within 5 years we will be living like the 1880's, bartering with gold, enforcing laws ourselves, and you won't be able to buy a pack of smokes at 7-11.
But sticking with Death a while longer. You're on my shortlist.
Peace
Dan
"Every judgment teeters on the brink of error. To claim absolute knowledge is to become monstrous. Knowledge is an unending adventure at the edge of uncertainty." - Frank Herbert, Dune, 1965
it's not worth the trouble for chump change. and with every bet i've ever made; the money is put in an escrow account. if not; it's not really a bet. when you play poker; you put the money up right then and there. if you're not willing to pony up; you don't have much faith in your theories. the other side of the coin is that if i'm right; you won't be able to pay. that's why i want the money converted to gold and held in a saftey deposit box. if banks or banking as we know it ; how do you expect to wire money? you could also claim that gambling is illegal and hence the courts won't uphold it. i've been through that. gambling is legal in nevada and will be upheld. nice way to back out though. if 100K is too much; how about 50K? i guess i could go to 20K. anything less is playing the penny slots. i've got a friend in florida with a house on the ocean who bet he wouldn't be evacuating by 2011. he followed the rules of gambling. and i can't wait to collect.
as i remember; we didn't have that in 1928. there are different factors involved here. just as any time in history. you could also say that the knights templar aren't stockpiling europes money now. the ice is melting. nobody can deny that. 2/3 of the population of the world live near water. nobody can deny that. you can still find coral in arizona south of the mogolon rim. nobody can deny that. last time the earth didn't have ice cover; the ocean covered 90% of arizona. where do you think the desert sand came from?
no matter who you want to blame global warming on; any intelligent person can put simple facts together. it's not the end of the world. not for everyone. it's the end of the world as we know it now. those who adapt; will survive.
There is a Fed speech \ Q&A session taking place as I write this.
Ron Paul was just on bashing Bernake for about 5 minutes.
He shrugged it off and played down the damage.
Bernake still says "six months to see stabilization"
we'll see.
Wait for this SIV thing to hit.
BTW, if i sell all my stock, i have to pay off all my margin loans, and pay a WHOLE LOT of capital gains,
i would be left with about a measley $2,500...
it just doesn't work financialy for me.
I'm kind of screwed if i do, screwed if i dont.
I don't think that makes me a hypocrite.
It just makes me nearly broke either way you cut it.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
let's not forget that if you have a mortgage then; the bank won't be able to collect. any investment is a crap shoot. i don't care what the investment is. but see my post to cosmo above. drifting is putting the events of the world together and looking back to what happened last time. that is a successful investor. when NYC begins to flood; what do you think the market will do? the ice is melting and the water is rising. that is cold hard facts. verified by expeditions to the areas and also new nasa satellite technologies. nasa watched 1250 square miles of antartica dissapear into the ocean in 3 weeks. that area happened to hold the land ice from falling into the ocean.
why not watch the science channel for a couple weeks instead of are you smarter than a 5th grader. you'll see what's really happening. you won't see it on the nightly news until it's a disaster.
These are not crazy people saying this.
These are "credible" people.
:rolleyes:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
it's coming; just like i said.
THIS IS REALLY SERIOUS.
Investors on the EXCHANGE FLOOR are cheering for the guy who is foreseeing doom & gloom.
What does THAT say !?!
If I opened it now would you not understand?
i don't watch tv. and i've got no money to worry about investing or losing. like i said, none of this affects me. all it means is there's going to be a lot of opportunity for me to litigate bankruptcy claims. bring on the boom!
have you cashed in to buy gold yet?
you might want to change your shorts too. it can't be comfortable sitting there pissing yourself all day.
so how long do i have? 24 hours? when does the world collapse and the sun go dark? should i be at walmart stocking up on ammo to handle the anarchy and rioting and looting and pillaging that is imminent? should i go stock up on smokes right now before 7-11 stops selling them? please give me some answers quick so i know what to do when i get back from confession. i want to be ready when the anti-christ arrives and jesus starts collecting his followers. this is the end times people! flee! flee for your lives!
Translation: Just what i've been saying here.
The dollar will continue to sink in value. The weakness of the dollar is amplified by cutting rates (which just means banks can borrow more & cheaper money from The Fed which means more inflation) and therefore the Fed WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CUT RATES for fear of causing the dollar to spiral down.
This is SO SO SO not good.
People come on.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
have you cashed out and bought gold yet?
did you read this:
It doesn't make sense for me.
My only hope is to find myself a house or two to invest in and leverage my stocks MORE, and pray that the poor sap renting my house can still somehow afford to rent it.
Otherwise i'm screwed.
If I opened it now would you not understand?