THE SKY IS FALLING: Gold At $825--Remember when I wanted to buy 2 months ago at $550?

soulsinging

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

a. i clicked the exclamation point. sorry. STFU is a bit over the top.

b. i don't need anyones approval.
I use the place as a soundingboard to get feedback.
I use it to gather public sentiment and see what people around the world think about things.

The fact that i "rant and rave" is indicative of the fact that i think things are much more serious than some of you comprehend.

A lot of this stuff is only being talked about by the media in very small soundbytes (SIV in particular) ... although GOLD IS ALL OVER THE NEWS. MSNBC has been talking about it NONSTOP today. THat and dollar "slumping".

This is not fucking fantasy.
This is the new sad reality.

I'm not in "terror" all though i am by no means happy about things.

I do wish some of you would wake up a little as far as what is going on around here.

Things look like SHIT out there right now.
And some of you are saying this is just a "correction".

This is a huge fucking "bubble" bursting, although "bubble" doesnt do it justice, because what we have here is a banking industry that is full of lies and a government that is manipulating the inflation numbers ...

what is really going on is the dollar is slumping because the fed keeps cutting rates to try to save itself, and throwing more money into the system to bail out its rich owners (yes, THE FED IS OWNED BY CITIBANK AND BANK OF AMERICA, AND JP MORGAN, LOOK IT UP!)

SO while the bank fucks america to save itself, we are taking a nose dive.

The banks print more money to buy gold, and then dump the cash on us.

It sucks.

i appreciate your concern, but i can take care of myself, thank you very much. if the economy crashes as you predict, i'll make a fortune litigating bankruptcy claims on behalf of bank of america, citibank, and jp morgan. no sucking wind here, chief.

DriftingByTheStorm

soulsinging wrote:

i appreciate your concern, but i can take care of myself, thank you very much. if the economy crashes as you predict, i'll make a fortune litigating bankruptcy claims on behalf of bank of america, citibank, and jp morgan.

Good for you.
I hope they pay you in gold.
Because the dollars they shove at you wont by you a fucking twinky.

soulsinging

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

Good for you.
I hope they pay you in gold.
Because the dollars they shove at you wont by you a fucking twinky.

eh, they know the hired guns need to make a living to keep cleaning out the poor masses. like i said, i'll be fine.

farfromglorified

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

I think we are actualy in agreement, except for my oversimplifications.

The bottom line is that gold does TYPICALY remain at a constant price, UNLESS there is some great fear that is causing a HUGE BUY-UP!

Gold prices change for many reasons. A "HUGE BUY-UP" is just one of them. Increased demand through simple use is another. Jewelry demand, electronics demand, central bank acquisitions...all these things represent simple increases in demand. Furthermore, supply issues can also affect gold, despite the low ratio between production and inventory. Gold hoarding, something modern states do quite well, significantly impacts the price of gold.

That is what i meant, when i said "stays constant".

So by saying "it can change", you meant "it stays constant"???

If the economy is doing "okay" and the sky IS NOT falling, gold remains fairly stable, and LOW.

Again, not true. Gold moves in good times and in bad. Certainly economic panic will almost always drive up the price of gold, but that is typically more of a perception issue than an actual indicator of economic health.

Yes, it is nothing new.
It is EXACTLY like the S&L scare.
However here is the difference.

Our economy WAS fundamentaly much more sound than it is right now... the dollar has lost a lot of value since the 80's and THE NUMBERS HERE ARE MUCH BIGGER THAN S&L.

I mean the accounting tricks and bailout necessary to keep this SIV thing afloat are going to make S&L pale in comparison.
IT COST NEARLY TWO TRILLION TO THE CITIZENS OF THIS COUNTRY TO BAIL OUT PRIVATE BANKS AND S&LS DURING THE 80s (and into the 90s)
HOW MUCH IS IT GOING TO COST THIS TIME? MUCH MUCH MORE. IT IS MUCH MUCH WORSE! It is compounded by those same gimmicky bullshit accounting practices that the government thumbs-uped in the 80s. I hear pundits on MSNBC calling for MORE GIMMICKS -- "we need to allow these banks to take these SIVS off balance sheet" ... WHAT? YOU WANT TO DEFRAUD THE PUBLIC? DO WHAT?

THAT IS THE DIFFERENCE.

That, and the FED HAS FLAT OUT STATED THAT THEY CAN NOT CONTINUE TO CUT THE RATE!

That means we are ON THE BRINK.

The system cant save itself anymore.

Cutting the rates at this point is the beginning of a suicidal dollar crash.

That is how I see it.
If you know something i dont, then speak up.

But it seems to me that the Fed is hard up for a solution. ALL there solutions equate INFLATION ... ALWAYS ALL THE TIME 100% OF THEM, PERIOD!

Bailout (in all it's forms) = Inflation
"Adding Liquidity" to the system = Inflation
Cutting Rates = Inflation

AMERICA CAN NOT TAKE MUCH MORE INFLATION.

Where is the disagreement here?

We are about to send our dollar PLUMMETING.
It already is in a free fall ...

Do we want to shoot holes in the wings of the glider on its way down as well?

Sweet fancy Moses....

There is always an inverse relation between the number of capital letters in a post and the author's understanding of his own words.

The credit bailout this time around will be cheaper than the S&L bailout. Do you want to know why? Because there won't be much of a bailout. What you're forgetting is that the S&L crisis affected small thrifts, not huge multinational banks. The major financial institutions involved in this credit situation are going to be able to withstand the losses and the government is not showing signs of enacting an extensive bailout for the individuals affected. This is wise policy.

The Fed will likely cut rates once or twice more, and that will be it for a while. Investment will dry up a bit overall, but not to any massive degree. 2008 may end up being a recessionary year, and that's going to be the worse of it for the short term.

Your fears of inflation are well-reasoned. But US inflation is not going to hit even the levels of the 70s anytime soon. Yes today's inflation is setting up tomorrow's collapse, but the dollar has to inflate massively to cause such a collapse. That's not going to happen at inflationary levels under 5%.

Fiscal policy right now needs to focus on significantly reducing government spending. We have a generation, at the least, to adjust policies before we need to even fear financial conditions approaching those of a significant depression. The dollar is still the strongest currency in the world and will remain so for the foreseeable future, though with much erosion. Just try to chill out a little.

DriftingByTheStorm

farfromglorified wrote:

Gold prices change for many reasons. A "HUGE BUY-UP" is just one of them. Increased demand through simple use is another. Jewelry demand, electronics demand, central bank acquisitions...all these things represent simple increases in demand. Furthermore, supply issues can also affect gold, despite the low ratio between production and inventory. Gold hoarding, something modern states do quite well, significantly impacts the price of gold.



So by saying "it can change", you meant "it stays constant"???



Again, not true. Gold moves in good times and in bad. Certainly economic panic will almost always drive up the price of gold, but that is typically more of a perception issue than an actual indicator of economic health.



Sweet fancy Moses....

There is always an inverse relation between the number of capital letters in a post and the author's understanding of his own words.

The credit bailout this time around will be cheaper than the S&L bailout. Do you want to know why? Because there won't be much of a bailout. What you're forgetting is that the S&L crisis affected small thrifts, not huge multinational banks. The major financial institutions involved in this credit situation are going to be able to withstand the losses and the government is not showing signs of enacting an extensive bailout for the individuals affected. This is wise policy.

The Fed will likely cut rates once or twice more, and that will be it for a while. Investment will dry up a bit overall, but not to any massive degree. 2008 may end up being a recessionary year, and that's going to be the worse of it for the short term.

Your fears of inflation are well-reasoned. But US inflation is not going to hit even the levels of the 70s anytime soon. Yes today's inflation is setting up tomorrow's collapse, but the dollar has to inflate massively to cause such a collapse. That's not going to happen at inflationary levels under 5%.

Fiscal policy right now needs to focus on significantly reducing government spending. We have a generation, at the least, to adjust policies before we need to even fear financial conditions approaching those of a significant depression. The dollar is still the strongest currency in the world and will remain so for the foreseeable future, though with much erosion. Just try to chill out a little.

Okay.
This is the last breath of my gold argument.
Yes, by "gold prices changing" i mean "they stay the same".
What i mean is that gold prices stay RELATIVELY STABLE unless there is a SERIOUS trouble in the economy. We both know that commodity prices are regulated by the market. But unlike oil which is pumped by lots of countries, or corn which is grown ... most of the gold in circulation is already in circulation. There are not huge mines pumping out billions of dollars of gold per day ... there just arent! So the supply is relatively stable. If the US government is buying up gold, that is great. I doubt they are smart enough to do that though. Infact, they are probalby SELLING it to cover loans, if there is even any left (i doubt it. think we sold it long ago) ...

Anyhow.
All that aside.
Yeah, inflation would have to be masive.
More than 5%, okay.
WHAT IS IT NOW?
I just heard a guest on Glenn Beck OUTRIGHT ACCUSE THE GOVERNMENT OF MANIPULATING THE INFLATION NUMBERS.

WHOOPITY WOOH!
So we probably have NO IDEA how bad it really is.
The government is lying to cover its own ass.

On the topic of SIV bailout ... GREAT. You say there wont be a bailout? GREAT.
BUT I DONT BELIEVE IT.
I think its just a matter of time ... MONTHS ... 2 months ...

I say by December there is a plan to bail out these massive banks -- WHICH ARE NOT DOING JUST FINE.
They are writing off BILLIONS AND BILLIONS IN LOANS ... and they HAVE NO RESERVES TO COVER THAT LOSS.
If the banks depositors out, THEY ARE FUCKED.

Do you know how much money the Federal "RESERVE" has on hand to cover depositors? LIKE ONE TO THREE PERCENT OF THE TOTAL LIABILITIES IT CLAIMS IT CAN COVER.

THAT IS WHY THERE WILL BE A BAIL OUT.

Because THE GOVERNMENT ABSOLUTELY CAN NOT COVER FDIC LOSSES.

And THAT is what this is about. That is what the S&L was about. The banks have all their money tied up in loans. That money is SUPPOSED to be held in reserve to cover deposits. INSTEAD THEY LOAN IT OUT!

Those loans are failing and being written off ... the SIVS ARENT EVEN ON BALANCE SHEETS SO WE DONT EVEN KNOW HOW BAD THE SITUATION IS ... but fair to say, if the banks are called by large institutional depositors who have to pull out funds to cover their OWN losses or liabilities, THESE BANKS WILL BE ON THIER KNEES.

I think you may not be too well versed on this, as much as i value your opinion, usualy.

I'll post more at 2am when i get back from working for ... GASP ... THE BANK!



S&L was not "some small institutions", it was THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY! I can explain that much better later too.

Anyhow.
Suffice to say, there will probably HAVE TO BE a bailout, and it is going to FUCK THE AVERAGE AMERICAN ... FUCK THEM REAL REAL HARD!

DriftingByTheStorm

macgyver06 wrote:

who has you believing that by gold going up in price will somehow make our economy collapse???

i hope smaller countries read this post

I think you've missed the boat completely.
Gold prices soaring is an INDICATION that our economy is in DEEP SHIT.

That is what i'm saying.

If you don't understand that,
you need to forget whatever you learned in economics class and read some REAL books on The Federal Reserve and wreckless american fiscal policy.

Gold is going up as a REFLECTION of serious economic trouble.

farfromglorified

Hehe...I can promise you DBTS that the solution to these problems is not dictating to a bank what they are "supposed" to do with deposits. Furthermore, you might try turning off Glenn Beck. Let me know what it costs you to replace the CAPS LOCK key on your keyboard these days...that way we can figure out the inflationary situation ourselves

jeffbr

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

I think you've missed the boat completely.
Gold prices soaring is an INDICATION that our economy is in DEEP SHIT.

That is what i'm saying.

If you don't understand that,
you need to forget whatever you learned in economics class and read some REAL books on The Federal Reserve and wreckless american fiscal policy.

Gold is going up as a REFLECTION of serious economic trouble.

Right. Forget ecomonics. It is much more exciting reading fantastic tales about the end times.

DriftingByTheStorm

farfromglorified wrote:

Hehe...I can promise you DBTS that the solution to these problems is not dictating to a bank what they are "supposed" to do with deposits.

Ugh.

WE agree then we disagree.

Government regulation should be dropped, and banks should be FORCED TO OBEY THE FREE MARKET.

The only insuance depositors should have ... the ONLY guarante they should get on their deposit is that of FREE MARKET PURCHASED INSURANCE BY THE BANK.

Just like bonds have ratings, banks should have ratings.
The insurance they carry for their depositors should be assessed and charged accordingly.

UNFORTUNATELY THE GOVERNMENT GUARNATEES ALL BANKS THE SAME GODDAMN INSURANCE.

So they can ALL be as risky as they want.

No.
No one should force them to hold reserves.
But that is good fiscal policy.
And they AREN'T adhereing to such.
They aren't even adhering to the tennets of fractional reserve lending ... they've gone to FRACTIONAL FRACTIONAL RESERVE LENDING.

Where they receive 1 dollar in deposits then lend out 10 on it. (That is fractional reserve lending)
BUT then they take THAT dollar on deposit and lend out 98 cents of it.

Holding TWO CENTS TO COVER TEN DOLLARS IN LOANED MONEY PLUS THE ORIGINAL DOLLAR ON LOAN.

I think you fail to understand how the banks work and what it means to be insolvent.

All loans come back to the issuing bank for payment.
That is why they are issued as either cash (straigth from the issuing bank) or as checks. So that if the person who gets the loan takes that loan check to ANOTHER bank to cash, that other bank just mails the check right back to the issuing bank and says "dude, you owe US money, because we just paid out the cash on YOUR loan".

DriftingByTheStorm

jeffbr wrote:

Right. Forget ecomonics. It is much more exciting reading fantastic tales about the end times.

Classical economics is horribly flawed.
Central banks fucked the idea in the face.

You may want to brush up on the truth that lies under the surface.

onelongsong

soulsinging wrote:

you're going to listen to the guy who thinks that if everyone had a semi-automatic attached to the dashboard of their car road rage would stop and no one would ever get hurt? the guy who has admitted he has a stockpile of weapons and is just waiting for the us government to invade his house in arizona to kill them all? this guy is still living in 1880 in tombstone, arizona. you might want to take his advice with a grain of salt.

too bad you didn't have the balls to stick around. if you've been paying attention over the past months; no wait, years; you will see that i've been right every time. from the price of gold going up to the ice the scientists predicted to be melted by 2050 as being melted by the end of this year. it's already melted. i live where it is like the 1880s. some countries live like they did in 1 ad. check out a third world country sometime. so the entire world isn't like it is on your street. you can't open your mind to that and i see that now. however; i'm connected with the world via satellite and i know what's going on. i've lived 51 years and i know how to follow past history. me grand and great grand told me many stories so i make my predictions on what happened in the past adding in current variables.
if you pay attention; you may learn something.

onelongsong

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

I've been trying to get into real estate for the past 5 years. It has taken me a while because my first financial partner flaked out, the second one had a family crisis, and now i've moved to where the market is MUCh cheaper and i can get in by myself.

I said REaffirmed my belief. I don't base my decisions on anyone elses opinion. I just listen and discriminate based on my own internal senses.

I trust him a lot more than i trust your outlook, as off the deep end as his approach may be ... it is still fundamentaly sound. I get the feeling when the shit hits the fan, HE will be doing great. You might be sucking wind though.

sheesh.

for humainties sake; i hope i am sucking wind. but looking at how the earth reacted last time it didn't have ice cover; i have to stick by my predictions.
i did tell you to use your own common sense. i never told you to do what i say. i only point out when i'm right. i don't know anyone with money that didn't start out with realestate. many failed because they bought in areas that went down in price. that's why i stressed using your common sense. i can tell you all about arizona and nevada; but when it comes to your area; i'm dumb as a rock. so don't trust anyone with your investments. use your common sense and take things into consideration when the person giving the advice has been right most of the time.

jeffbr

DriftingByTheStorm wrote:

Classical economics is horribly flawed.
Central banks fucked the idea in the face.

You may want to brush up on the truth that lies under the surface.

No thanks. Your "truth" seems to cause panic attacks and irrational behavior. My "truth" has been historically consistent and doesn't require panic or wholesale moving of assets. If you're comfortable with your discomfort, go for it.

Cosmo

So... in the not too distant future... we're gonna have to plop down a Kugerrand at the local 7-11 for a pack of Marlboros? What do we get in change? 50Cents front teeth?

onelongsong

jeffbr wrote:

No thanks. Your "truth" seems to cause panic attacks and irrational behavior. My "truth" has been historically consistent and doesn't require panic or wholesale moving of assets. If you're comfortable with your discomfort, go for it.

i have to stick with drifting here. your TRUTHS don't take the current events into account. your "truth" has been consistant for a time when the earth had ice cover. people who want to protect their investments follow everything that happens in the world. not just watching numbers on the stock exchange. people that watch only the market lose money. those that look ahead at what's coming; make money. THAT; son; has ALWAYS been constant. some days i sit and wonder what most of you watch on the tele. those watching and keeping track of scientific information are scared shiteless. those that look back in history to see how the earth reacted when it didn't have ice cover are looking for higher ground and trying to keep what they've worked for. if you're looking for constants look back over the last few thousand years. those with land ruled the people.
just something to think about.

onelongsong

Cosmo wrote:

So... in the not too distant future... we're gonna have to plop down a Kugerrand at the local 7-11 for a pack of Marlboros? What do we get in change? 50Cents front teeth?

i hope i'm wrong but in 5 years there won't be a 7-11 to buy anything. i'll be having a major nicotine fit too.
did you get to see that show about extinctions?

jeffbr

onelongsong wrote:

i hope i'm wrong but in 5 years there won't be a 7-11 to buy anything. i'll be having a major nicotine fit too.
did you get to see that show about extinctions?

I will bet you $1,000 that I will be here in 5 years. I will bet you another $1,000 that 7-11s will exist and be selling cigarettes in exchange for dollars.

onelongsong

jeffbr wrote:

I will bet you $1,000 that I will be here in 5 years. I will bet you another $1,000 that 7-11s will exist and be selling cigarettes in exchange for dollars.

i'll bet you 100K i'm right. we can put the money in an account in nevada (where gambling is legal) and winner gets the interest.

jeffbr

onelongsong wrote:

i'll bet you 100K i'm right. we can put the money in an account in nevada (where gambling is legal) and winner gets the interest.

Nice. Well, I am not going to liquidate assets to put $100k in an account somewhere for five years earning money market rates. I'll stand by my previous bet, we can keep our money working for us in our own ways, draw up a contract if you like (I'm sure we could be creative and make the contract something that doesn't directly point to gambling), and at a 5 year anniversary the losing party can wire funds, or send gold coins by pony express or river boat.

RolandTD20Kdrummer

Not that anyone wants to read about this...

"Fearing a stock market crash worse than 1929, Charles Merrill cousin to the founder of the Merrill/Lynch dynasty, is quickly converting to gold coins. "
http://www.inteldaily.com/?c=139&a=4108

fuck...