Are We Waging "War" On Iran? Oil Bourse & Cables Cut = Fishy Shit
DriftingByTheStorm
Posts: 8,684
Just curious.
Trying to add it all up over here,
Iran planning to take their Bourse live between the 1st and 11th of Februrary.
Coincidentaly ALL INTERNET TO IRAN (100%) WAS CUT BY CABLE on the 30th of January.
THREE, possibly FOUR, SEPERATE CABLES were cut on the sea bed ...
these were cables connecting Iran and eastern europe and ASIA.
Iran had 100% internet outages along with Egypt.
Funny.
If Iran wanted to sell Oil in Euros (which they DO), CHINA would probably be a big buyer ... and former soviet states (ie. eastern europe)
And amazingly, NO NEWS ON WHAT HAPPENED.
Best guess? An anchor?
3 or 4 cables in SEPERATE LOCATIONS.
Hmm
WTF?
Trying to add it all up over here,
Iran planning to take their Bourse live between the 1st and 11th of Februrary.
Coincidentaly ALL INTERNET TO IRAN (100%) WAS CUT BY CABLE on the 30th of January.
THREE, possibly FOUR, SEPERATE CABLES were cut on the sea bed ...
these were cables connecting Iran and eastern europe and ASIA.
Iran had 100% internet outages along with Egypt.
Funny.
If Iran wanted to sell Oil in Euros (which they DO), CHINA would probably be a big buyer ... and former soviet states (ie. eastern europe)
And amazingly, NO NEWS ON WHAT HAPPENED.
Best guess? An anchor?
3 or 4 cables in SEPERATE LOCATIONS.
Hmm
WTF?
If I was to smile and I held out my hand
If I opened it now would you not understand?
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Post edited by Unknown User on
0
Comments
Yeah i had no idea what to think before i read about the bourse going live last night.
In FACT, i actualy thought it may have been a plot AGAINST the US, by cutting our lines to the Middle East, hindering our banking and oil communications ...
but THEN i read 100% blackout in IRAN ...
and THEN i read about the oil bourse going live ...
and THAT made me realize this was in all likely hood perpetrated BY the United States AGAINST Iran.
VERY VERY fishy shit.
And a LOT of blowback potential here.
A LOT.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
and if you dont think this is accurate well than...all i can say is do some research and only time will tell..
i think she would make a good president... but war with iran is not out of the question with her.
What are the odds of up to 5 cables being cut like this?
The thing is there are still phone / satellite connections. Though slower and more limited in Iran they still exist. So I really do not understand why someone would think this would hurt Iran. The country is not run based on the internet.
Now if someone did that to North America or say Western Europe. That might cause some headaches
~Ralph Waldo Emerson~
The Tie-Dye Lady is HOT!!!
To effectively trade oil, you need lots of internet connections!
They have the potential to be the ONLY player in the oil market offering oil for sale in EUROS and other currencies and NOT THE DOLLAR.
ALL other players are selling on DOLLARS only.
Any idea how much of a crowd that could attract in the face of all the weakness in the dollar?
Without those cables, Iran will have a problem bringing that trading platform online this week, as planned.
:sigh:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
yup
PEARL JAM~San Antonio, TX. 4~5~03
INCUBUS~Houston, TX. 1~19~07
INCUBUS~Denver, CO. 2~8~07
Lollapalooza~Chicago, IL. 8~5~07
INCUBUS~Austin, TX. 9~3~07
Bonnaroo~Manchester, TN 6~14~08
but Obama voted "present" on funding the War.......
that's approving of the War without sayin it
kinda lame if you ask me
PEARL JAM~San Antonio, TX. 4~5~03
INCUBUS~Houston, TX. 1~19~07
INCUBUS~Denver, CO. 2~8~07
Lollapalooza~Chicago, IL. 8~5~07
INCUBUS~Austin, TX. 9~3~07
Bonnaroo~Manchester, TN 6~14~08
MF,
SO WAS I!
But you know what?
Its really fucking hard to get the story straight when "the story" is ONE GODDAMN SOURCE FROM RUSSIA.
There is 100% TOTAL news blackout on coverage of the Iranian oil bourse situation.
So how the hell are we to know ANYTHING?
Again, the only source on the Bourse starting this week is from within Iran itself (which i have NO reason to disbelieve) ... but NO OTHER COVERAGE.
Nearly the same with the cables being cut.
Certainly not on the TV ... very few internet sources of heft.
Best i can figure the announcement out of russia a month ago was preemptive to send notice "we ARE going off the dollar" ... and this weeks anouncement is "its HE-RE!"
:rolleyes:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
That being said. What does that do for the price of Oil? It has been droping a bit lattly and if Iran suddenly can not trade and sell its oil that drops the world supply increassing the cost down the line. Hmm?
~Ralph Waldo Emerson~
The Tie-Dye Lady is HOT!!!
Near term oil prices are falling on economic concerns, which means fears of general slow downs come with fears of slowing oil deman.
As far as the relation to taking the Oil Bourse online, the only tangible direct affect i can peg that to have on the price of oil domesticaly is the inflationary one:
If major global players in the oil trade, think about China and Soviet states, stop using the USD to buy oil, that means they no longer need to secure dollars on the global market.
Those dollars end up stuck here in America, driving up the domestic currency supply dramaticaly.
Supply and demand would tell you, more money chasing the same amount of goods means goods cost more.
The direct affect of an Iranian oil for Euros program would be an all-pervasive one on the DOLLAR and prices in general ... not just oil.
But to answer the question, by virtue of the dollar going down, oil prices would go UP.
We shall see.
Jlew posted an article in my other oil bourse thread that tries to imply that some how "US sanctions" will prevent the Bourse from drawing any serious buyers.
But it fails to even clarify what it means by "US sanctions" ... the implication i take is that the US may threaten trade sanctions against nations that refuse to continue using the dollar to buy oil ... but i don't know ... the article didn't specify ... if we DID do that ... it would be retarded ... nearly an act of war ... and certainly an act of agression to threaten that on trade partners ...
...we will see.
I don't think there is much that will stop the world from seeking a source of oil that doesn't require holding on to massive quantities of the rapidly failing dollar.
:sigh:
If I opened it now would you not understand?
well the stock market just hit its head on a 2nd attempt at a rally (1st being yesterday) and still CRASHED down in post-noon trading.
We are about to break through the floor again here in 10 minutes.
Big move for the bears.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
get a good person in the room and they will tell you
i would never vote to go to war...
ask them if they voted for bush or would vote for obama or hilllary and they will say yes....
which can only lead me to believe...
A. they're fucking idiots
B. they dont understand
Wouldn't China and other nations choosing to buy oil with Euros right now be the equivalent of an American choosing to take an extravagant trip to Europe right now? In other words, isn't this the absolute BEST time to be buying oil with dollars, due to its weakness, and the absolute WORST time to be doing so with Euros? Unless it's an even-steven deal where the current cost in dollars is translated to that same amount in euros which, even then, except out of spite for the dollar, I don't understand the advantages for any country except Iran? Drop some knowledge on me, please.
is that true? separate locations? how far apart?
First 2 cables were not cut by ships anchors. No ships in the area 6 hours eather side of the outage.
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hTi5wNwTD66nvWdTAQw20SaFI_GQ
Also Cable No. 4 went down as well but that was an issue with a power relay on shore
~Ralph Waldo Emerson~
The Tie-Dye Lady is HOT!!!
Issues with a power relay on shore, huh?
What kind of "issue" are we talking about?
C4 to the face?
Jamming? Fried?
Give me a break.
This is the work of the United States and its own special brand of "terrorism". CIA, Navy Seals, it was someone on our side.
Why else would there be absolute radio silence on our end? No media coverage, perfect timing ...
Did you guys here CNN talking about the possibility of bombing Iran again tonight !??!
LET THE GAMES BEGIN!
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Those cable cuts were on cnn.com's front page during each occurrence. I saw plenty of coverage elsewhere as well.
easy with the accusations already captain tin hat. I saw a ton of media coverage when it happened. and secondly, why would we have non-stop coverage? this didnt effect america...at all.
Fair enough.
I guess it's important to get the disinfo out there.
Let me know when you hear knews of the Oil Bourse on TV though.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
i may very well be wrong but i would think the simple approach is that:
iran does not want US dollars because it isn't worth as much so they sell their oil in euros ... countries like china and russia who want that oil from iran will then need euros to buy that oil ... so, now they no longer need to bank us dollars in order to buy iranian oil ...
So it is only to Iran's advantage...cool....that's the only way I could think of it. Wonder why China wouldn't turn to alternate sources except for standing contracts? Seems like an odd time for China to want to be put into a position that they have to stock up on euros.
Drifting...you seem to the most up on all this...care to explain what's going on?
Driftin: Fuck the dollar, Fuck the Fed, America is fucked, stock market will crash, we are all doomed, I hum on Ron Paul's old man balls, America is fucked, Iran is awesome, I love euros.
something like that
Ebizzle,
it is simple really.
The dollar, increasingly in the gobal communities opinion, is coming to be viewed as a DEPRECIATING asset.
It is LOSING value.
Oil has been denominated and sold exclusively in dollars since the mid 1970s.
The last person to try and take oil off the dollar was Sadam Hussein ... just around the time Bush was coming in to office. look where that got him! Look it up, its true.
The benefit is not one sided.
Iran gets the exlusive position of being the only country to offer this dollar-free trading service, and purchasing countries receive the benefit of no longer having to horde large quantities of an asset of dubious quality and declining value (the dollar) ...
it isn't really about exchange rates or the euro ... it is about the dollar and its questionable stability. Exchange rates are never a problem, unless you are trying to exchange inflated currency into less-inflated currency (dollars in to euros) and then spend those euros in their native market where price stability exists.
In otherwords, even if you had exchanged your dollars in to euros ... as long as you were spending those euros in America, you would witness no loss of purchasing power ... however, if you take those euros over to europe, you have lost purchasing power, because their prices are set and weighted for european inflation and conditions.
Making since?
Remember inflation has NOTHING to do with rising prices.
Prices rise because the value of the currency chasing those goods has FALLEN, because the amount of that currency in circulation has increased!
There are, by ratio, many more dollars chasing goods in America, than there are Euros chasing goods in Europe. So the dollar is, by ratio, worth less than the Euro.
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Yeah, I get all that, and that was kind of my point. It's a ridiculously expensive time for China to be liquidating dollars to exchange them for euros to buy oil. Unless the chinese already have a huge amount of euros in reserve, they're having to "buy" them to purchase the oil. Why would they choose now to do that? I understand the dollar is weak but, unless the chinese are 100% convinced the dollar is set to collapse, why in the hell would they be selling them now at such a loss when they could just buy from another supplier, say Saudi, using the dollars they already own? And, if they were 100% convinced, they should be selling everything they have American, TBonds, Dollars, you name it. They aren't. Something just isn't adding up here....or maybe this is one of those deals where if we were sitting behind a couple of beers it'd be easy to explain vice typing on a computer. I have a decent understanding of econ, but far from an expert. I'm probably missing something.
Is Iran offering some perk for buying with Euros, a reduced price or something? Isn't this operating outside the guidelines of OPEC?
thats a very good assumption and entirely possible. Iran is trying to do anything it can to undermine the US and the dollar.
Well.
Jlew's comment (below yours, above this one) is correct.
Iran is doing this with ill intent towards the USA.
That is the primary motivation.
As far as your comments, i think you do get it, as much as we layman can.
Your analysis of the cost\benefit analysis to China is, for the most part, spot on.
The thing you are neglecting to account for however, is that FUTURE purchases will continualy require the FUTURE purchase of dollars. Obviously if china is worried about the value of the dollar they should either
a. hold the ones they have (if they see any real chance of their value increasing in the nearterm. which i doubt they do) and NOT "PURCHASE" MORE OF THEM
b. SPEND the ones they have and be rid of them (cut your losses, because remember the price of oil in dollars has DOUBLED, so what is the real advantage anyhow?) and still NOT BUY MORE DOLLARS.
So. Either way, a sane policy in light of the declining value of the dollar would be to not continue and purchase them if you did not have to.
My guess however is that the US response to such a move by China would be to remove them from "most favored nation" trading status, and start a series of retaliatory trade actions. I think this was the implication laying latent in one of the other articles i posted.
Also,
regarding your quote
You pretty much just hit it on the head.
See here: China's "nuclear option" ... call it politics, call it a real threat ... but they ARE considering it.
As far as the OPEC guidelines and Iran's actions go ... I have to be frank here, i have ZERO understanding of the internal workings of OPEC or the guidelines that the member nations agree to, or what the ramifications are for violating those guidelines. Clearly Iran is not too concerned with this though.
I'm guessing OPEC operates something like the UN.
America sure as hell was told what it could and could not do with regards to Iraq, war, and UN\International law. Did it stop us or even make us blink in decision?
No.
So.
Look, i'm not saying wether this is right for Iran or China. The market will sort all that out. Jlew is correct, as i said, the real intent (as far as Iran is concerned) is not to diversify off the dollar themselves (though i'm sure they are thrilled) ... it is to fuck with America.
And POTENTIALY, it could be a huge "fucking with".
If I opened it now would you not understand?
Bush/Cheney thought we would have been at war with Iran by now and it didn't happen. Contrary to how the cables were physically cut, these undersea fiber optic cables could not have been sorted out with that much precision without the guidance of those good old telecommunication corporations. We cut those cables in an act of desperation and to show Iran the extremes we will go to prevent them from establishing their own Exchange.
If this doesn't work, Bush/Cheney will find a way to draw Iran into a war.
October 15th, 2007
By Adam Kritzer
Over the last 30 years, China’s economy has grown at an average annualized rate of nearly 10%. While this statistic alone is jaw-dropping, what is more impressive is the extent to which the nominally Communist country’s economy has become intertwined in the global economy. China now exerts enormous influence over the economies of virtually every country in the world, and a slight change in its domestic economic policy has the potential to send shockwaves rippling throughout the world. Nowhere is this more apparent-and frightening-then in China’s economic relationship with the United States, which is very much at the mercy of China when it comes to prices, wages, interest rates, most importantly, the value of the Dollar.
The precariousness of this relationship is already the subject of significant publicity, redolent of the Japanaphobia of the 1980’s that saw American economists scare-mongering about Japanese control of the US economy. [Of course this later turned out to be unfounded, but that is beyond the scope of our discussion.] With regard to China, most of the analysis is focused on its growing foreign exchange reserves, the majority of which are held in Dollar-denominated assets. This article will go beyond forex reserves and discuss several other facets of China’s economy. From US house prices to global commodity prices, from interest rates to inflation rates, we will explore how China could cripple the US economy, both willfully and unintentionally, if so desired.
Forex Reserve Diversification
Let’s begin with an examination of China’s forex reserves, which is probably China’s biggest bargaining chip in its economic relationship with the US. Up until two years ago, China’s currency, the RMB or Yuan, was pegged to the Dollar. As with any peg, there often develops a discrepancy between the fixed value of the currency and the value that the market would assign if the currency were permitted to float. As China’s economy surged ahead, especially over the last five to ten years, tremendous pressure began to build under the RMB. In order to maintain the peg and hold down the value of the RMB, China began accumulating foreign exchange reserves by withdrawing foreign currency from circulation. Today, China’s foreign exchange reserves are massive, at $1.4 trillion as of September 2007.
In the eyes of American policy-makers, this presents a problem because the majority of these reserves are held in Dollar-denominated assets, namely in the form of US Treasury securities. The US government theoretically could not be happier that foreign Central Banks are willing to finance its perennial budget deficits. However, this borrowing has reached a point where foreigners now control over 40% of the US national debt. Moreover, long-term US interest rates are market-driven, based on the buying and selling of US government bonds. In other words, the US has gradually ceded control of its long-term interest rates to foreign Central Banks, namely China and Japan.
As the Dollar has depreciated over the last five years, many Central Banks have begun “diversifying” their forex reserves, by switching from Dollar assets to assets denominated in other currencies. This is problematic for the Dollar for two reasons. First, switching from US assets to European assets, for example, directly causes the Dollar to depreciate. Second, the bulk sale of US treasury securities (whether or not they are replaced with other US-assets) causes US bond prices to decline and hence, yields to increase. Thus, if China suddenly decided to diversify its reserves, for economic and/or political reasons, it could potentially crash the Dollar and send US long-term interest rates skyward. Since mortgage rates are tied directly to government bond yields, a rise in interest rates would probably also affect US real estate prices. Higher interest rates would make borrowing for a home more difficult, which would lower the demand for houses and thus, the value of American real estate.
In fact, China recently created the China Investment Co. Ltd., capitalized with almost $300 Billion, charged with investing its vast forex reserves in higher-yielding assets. However, the company’s inaugural investment was a stock purchase in the Blackstone group, an American private equity firm. Thus, while it seems likely that China will gradually discard some of its stock of US Treasury Securities, the affect on the value of the Dollar will be minimal. Besides, while China would certainly punish US businesses and consumers by unloading US Treasuries on the market, it would punish itself even more, since the value of the government bonds that it didn’t sell would decline. In short, it seems China will probably hold off on exercising its “nuclear option” for the time being.
Currency Manipulation
The second aspect of the China-US economic relationship which China could wield to its advantage is the RMB, itself. American public officials enjoy criticizing China for failing to allow its currency to appreciate more quickly. In fact, there is a bill that has been lying dormant in the US Congress, which threatens to slap a massive across-the-board tariff on all Chinese imports if China fails to allow the RMB to appreciate adequately against the Dollar. What policymakers don’t realize is that a rapid appreciation in the RMB would actually harm the US economy.
Coupled with its growing role as the world’s factory, China’s cheap currency has made Americans wealthier, by increasing their purchasing power. As production of labor-intensive goods was outsourced to China over the last decade, prices for finished products began to fall both in real terms and in nominal terms. While the effect on US employment trends is debatable, its effect on prices has been unambiguous. Thus, even while the American economy boomed, inflation remained relatively modest by historical standards. This allowed the Federal Reserve Board to hold interest rates down and foment economic growth.
As the RMB appreciates, Chinese producers will become ever-more forced to pass along some of the price increase to consumers. Now, if China was to suddenly revalue its currency by the 25%-30% that western policy-makers are demanding, prices on a whole host of Chinese products would jump up overnight. This would adversely affect American purchasing power and limit consumption to such an extent that the US would be in danger of slipping into recession. While the trade deficit that is the bane of American politicians’ existence might decrease in the long-term, it would skyrocket in the short-term. Besides, as many analysts have been quick to point out, there is not much overlap between Chinese and American production. Thus, a more expensive Yuan would send production to other parts of Asia, rather than back to America. While the US-China trade deficit might narrow, it would be offset by increased imbalance with the rest of Asia. Just like with the case of its foreign exchange reserves, however, China is unlikely to exercise this option because it would deal equal harm to itself. China’s ruling Communist party derives most of its legitimacy from the strength of its economy, and especially exports. If a more expensive Yuan forced producers to relocate to other parts of Asia, it would certainly spell trouble for the CCP!
Direct Competition with US Exporters
A more potent (and plausible) weapon would be to compete more directly with US exporters, by expanding into high-technology products. Currently, China specializes in manufacturing labor-intensive products, which have long since been manufactured outside of the United States. As previously stated, a revaluation of the Chinese Yuan would surely not return production to the US. However, if China were to expand into capital-intensive and/or high-technology products, it could easily steal marketshare and jobs from the US.
Limiting the Importation of US Products
Of course, there is also the imports side of the trade equation. China is quickly becoming one of the United States’ largest export markets; limiting the importation of US goods and services would certainly be felt in the US. In fact, China already requires multinational companies in many industries to form joint ventures with Chinese companies in order to produce and/or sell their wares in China. Other anti-competitive measures include tariffs, import taxes, quotas, or a simple ban on the importation of certain types of products. Each would have a devastating impact on the US trade deficit with China and would probably result in retaliatory sanctions by the US.
Wage Pressure
Next, there is the impact that China has exerted on global wages. When Deng XiaoPing’s famous tour of the South in 1979 ignited three decades of dizzying growth, hundreds of millions of Chinese were added to the global labor pool overnight. Yet, the majority of China’s population remains concentrated in rural areas. In fact, there are perhaps 500 million Chinese peasants that have yet to join the modern labor force, which means the full effect of China’s economic explosion has yet to be fully realized by the rest of the world. Already, there is no hope of unskilled work that has already been outsourced returning to the US. If/when China begins to expand into the production of high-technology goods and more complex services, it will encroach on the territory of American businesses. Unfortunately for the US, China will likely make these undercapitalized sectors of its economy more of a priority in its next five year plan.
One popular method for estimating GDP is the income approach, which as its name suggests, represents a summation of the reported incomes of a given country’s domestic population. Logic dictates that downward pressure on the wages of skilled American workers would negatively impact US GDP, and at the very least, would curtail the purchasing power of American consumers. This would also limit US exports to China, since Chinese would have homegrown alternatives to choose from.
Raw Material Pricing
In addition, there is the impact that China’s economic growth has exerted on global raw material prices. It has been said that 25% of the world’s construction cranes are currently located in China, to support the country’s building boom. These massive development and infrastructure projects require proportionally massive quantities of raw materials, namely cement and steel. Unfortunately, China is especially inefficient at converting raw materials into finished products. Combined with the CCP’s emphasis on the near-term (which inherently prioritizes low cost over efficiency), this is placing a tremendous strain on global energy supplies, driving prices skyward.
Competition for Energy
The global prices for oil and coal are already at record highs and China only consumes 1/15 the amount of per-capita energy as the US! Chinese energy companies are becoming increasingly visible, scouring the globe for stable supplies of energy and often coming head-to-head with American energy companies. Conveniently, China does not recognize the ethical issues which arise from purchasing energy from dictatorships and corrupt regimes, whereas US companies are limited from doing business in these places. From Sudan to Myanmar to Kazakhstan, Chinese companies have set up join ventures where US companies could not. While energy prices have certainly risen in the US, they have not kept pace with global energy prices. In this way, China is able to ensure that its citizens and its businesses have the oil, coal, and natural gas that they require, while their American counterparts may be forced to conserve.
Two years ago, the Chinese National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) attempted to purchase an American energy company, Unocal, for over $18 Billion. However, the deal was blocked by the US Congress, which feared Unocal’s energy reserves would be supplied to China at the expense of Americans. It did not help CNOOC’s case that 70% of the Company was effectively owned by the CCP. Needless to say, Chinese government officials were not happy with the outcome; (Unocal was ultimately sold to Chevron for a lower price). China has already shown its willingness to use extreme tactics to secure an adequate energy supply. It seems reasonable to expect its energy policy will continue to oppose and inconvenience the US.
Conclusion
In short, China has several economic “weapons” at its disposal for countering the US, ranging from the manipulation of its currency to the diversification of its burgeoning stock of forex reserves. It also has several less blunt options to choose from, such as enabling Chinese companies to compete more directly and effectively with US companies, and opposing the US in securing a domestic energy supply. On all of these fronts, the US is essentially being held hostage, since it has become so dependent on China as the world’s factory. Ultimately, it seems unlikely that China will deliberately butt heads with the US unless it is first provoked, but America should nonetheless be on its guard, since its economy hangs in the balance.