#47 economic policies

Options
24567…32

Comments

  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,306

    Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War

    January 31, 2025 20 min read By: Erica York

    Latest Updates

    1. Updated to include additional analysis of the proposed 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico that could begin February 1, 2025.
    2. Updated to separate out 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico given recent threats that these tariffs could begin February 1, 2025.
    3. The update contains modeling of President-elect Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 percent tariff on China.
    See Full Timeline

    Key Findings

    • President Trump has threatened a variety of new tariffs for his second term in office, from universal baseline tariffs to country-specific tariffs.
    • We estimate the 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 percent tariffs on China proposed to go into effect as early as February 1, 2025, would shrink economic output by 0.4 percent and increase taxes by $1.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034 on a conventional basis, amounting to an average tax increase of more than $830 per US household in 2025. The tariffs on Canada and Mexico alone would increase taxes by $958 billion between 2025 and 2034 on a conventional basis, amounting to an average tax increase of more than $670 per US household in 2025.
    • The first Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades.
    • The Biden administration kept most of the Trump administration tariffs in place, and in May 2024, announced tariff hikes on an additional $18 billion of Chinese goods, including semiconductors and electric vehicles, for an additional tax increase of $3.6 billion.
    • We estimate the imposed Trump-Biden tariffs will reduce long-run GDP by 0.2 percent, the capital stock by 0.1 percent, and employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
    • Altogether, the trade war policies currently in place add up to $79 billion in tariffs based on trade levels at the time of tariff implementation and excluding behavioral and dynamic effects.
    • Before accounting for behavioral effects, the $79 billion in higher tariffs amounts to an average annual tax increase on US households of $625. Based on actual revenue collections data, trade war tariffs have directly increased tax collections by $200 to $300 annually per US household, on average. Both estimates understate the cost to US households because they do not factor in the lost output, lower incomes, and loss in consumer choice the tariffs have caused.
    • Academic and governmental studies find the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.


    continues.....


    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • DE4173
    DE4173 Posts: 2,792
    Thanks for sharing!
    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • battle1
    battle1 PHI Posts: 637
    Well yesterday, this trudeauu guy promised a "forceful and immediate" retaliation to any tariffs.  Now, he says they will be "forceful but reasonable".  Is this guy kidding himself?  It could be the end of the American republic after all with these threats of force from canada.  
  • battle1
    battle1 PHI Posts: 637
    edited February 1
    What the hell is "forceful but reasonable" anyway?  It reminds me of "undeniably similar, all differences aside".  Oh canada, what are we going to do with you?  
    Post edited by battle1 on
  • DE4173
    DE4173 Posts: 2,792

    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,306
    DE4173 said:


    what relevance does this have on the issue at hand?
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • battle1
    battle1 PHI Posts: 637
    edited February 1
    mickeyrat said:
    DE4173 said:


    what relevance does this have on the issue at hand?
    It relates to tariffs on canada, and the threats of force against America.  Both tie back to "#47 economic policies", to be fair. 
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 41,994
    Reading is hard. Comprehension is harder.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • Tim Simmons
    Tim Simmons Posts: 9,497
    battle1 said:
    What the hell is "forceful but reasonable" anyway?
    I guess as opposed to ‘forceful and unreasonable’ which is what we seem to be doing. 
  • Hawk123
    Hawk123 Posts: 2,367
    battle1 said:
    What the hell is "forceful but reasonable" anyway?  It reminds me of "undeniably similar, all differences aside".  Oh canada, what are we going to do with you?  
    Reasonable means not blanket tariffs on everything like your hero is doing that fucks over everyone. Have fun rebuilding California with expensive wood and higher oil prices. Should also help with the high cost of housing. 

  • battle1
    battle1 PHI Posts: 637
    Tim Simmons said:
    battle1 said:
    What the hell is "forceful but reasonable" anyway?
    I guess as opposed to ‘forceful and unreasonable’ which is what we seem to be doing. 
    Well I don't know that tariffs are unreasonable, we will have to wait and see the outcome.  canada has been sucking on the hind tit long enough quite frankly. Time to pay up.  

    The ICE sweeps are certainly unreasonable.  
  • Tim Simmons
    Tim Simmons Posts: 9,497
    Nah, chasing free trade is better 
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,306
    battle1 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    DE4173 said:


    what relevance does this have on the issue at hand?
    It relates to tariffs on canada, and the threats of force against America.  Both tie back to "#47 economic policies", to be fair. 

    old images of trudeau have what relevance again?
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 44,306
    battle1 said:
    Tim Simmons said:
    battle1 said:
    What the hell is "forceful but reasonable" anyway?
    I guess as opposed to ‘forceful and unreasonable’ which is what we seem to be doing. 
    Well I don't know that tariffs are unreasonable, we will have to wait and see the outcome.  canada has been sucking on the hind tit long enough quite frankly. Time to pay up.  

    The ICE sweeps are certainly unreasonable.  

    be very interesting to see the economic impact of lost tourism dollars. the places that will see the brunt of that.

    so very glad I havr every intention of driving my ram til it falls apart. fully paid and a lifetime warranty, I wont have to fuck with the coat of a new vehicle when all builds are a blend of american, canadian and mexican parts.
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

    Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
    you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
    memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
    another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
  • battle1
    battle1 PHI Posts: 637
    mickeyrat said:
    battle1 said:
    Tim Simmons said:
    battle1 said:
    What the hell is "forceful but reasonable" anyway?
    I guess as opposed to ‘forceful and unreasonable’ which is what we seem to be doing. 
    Well I don't know that tariffs are unreasonable, we will have to wait and see the outcome.  canada has been sucking on the hind tit long enough quite frankly. Time to pay up.  

    The ICE sweeps are certainly unreasonable.  

    be very interesting to see the economic impact of lost tourism dollars. the places that will see the brunt of that.

    so very glad I havr every intention of driving my ram til it falls apart. fully paid and a lifetime warranty, I wont have to fuck with the coat of a new vehicle when all builds are a blend of american, canadian and mexican parts.
    I would like to believe the American economy will survive sans canadas tourism dollars.  Please, just stay home canada.  
  • jhager79
    jhager79 Kitchener Ontario Posts: 291
    battle1 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    battle1 said:
    Tim Simmons said:
    battle1 said:
    What the hell is "forceful but reasonable" anyway?
    I guess as opposed to ‘forceful and unreasonable’ which is what we seem to be doing. 
    Well I don't know that tariffs are unreasonable, we will have to wait and see the outcome.  canada has been sucking on the hind tit long enough quite frankly. Time to pay up.  

    The ICE sweeps are certainly unreasonable.  

    be very interesting to see the economic impact of lost tourism dollars. the places that will see the brunt of that.

    so very glad I havr every intention of driving my ram til it falls apart. fully paid and a lifetime warranty, I wont have to fuck with the coat of a new vehicle when all builds are a blend of american, canadian and mexican parts.
    I would like to believe the American economy will survive sans canadas tourism dollars.  Please, just stay home canada.  
    The American economy will be fine for the most part without tourism from Canada, but I guarantee you that if will hurt all the border towns that Canadians frequent. Be great if other countries boycott American travel as well. Maybe all the nurses and hospital staff that cross the border into Michigan daily decide to work closer to home. The tariffs are going to hurt people up here but Americans are going to feel it as well, some worse than others but you’ll feel it.
    [img][/img]Kitchener2005
    Toronto 2003
    Toronto 2000
    Barrie 1998
    Toronto 1993
    London 2005

    Toronto 2006 May 9/10
    Toronto 2009
    Toronto Sept 11/12 2011
    London 2013
    Detroit 2014
    Toronto 2016 May 10/12
    Chicago 2018 N2
    "No matter how cold the winter, there's a springtime ahead"
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    Tim Simmons said:
    battle1 said:
    What the hell is "forceful but reasonable" anyway?
    I guess as opposed to ‘forceful and unreasonable’ which is what we seem to be doing. 
    Seems more thoughtful and intelligent as well. It is strange that the United States seems more aggressive to it's allies than to our adversaries these days. 


    www.myspace.com
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    jhager79 said:
    battle1 said:
    mickeyrat said:
    battle1 said:
    Tim Simmons said:
    battle1 said:
    What the hell is "forceful but reasonable" anyway?
    I guess as opposed to ‘forceful and unreasonable’ which is what we seem to be doing. 
    Well I don't know that tariffs are unreasonable, we will have to wait and see the outcome.  canada has been sucking on the hind tit long enough quite frankly. Time to pay up.  

    The ICE sweeps are certainly unreasonable.  

    be very interesting to see the economic impact of lost tourism dollars. the places that will see the brunt of that.

    so very glad I havr every intention of driving my ram til it falls apart. fully paid and a lifetime warranty, I wont have to fuck with the coat of a new vehicle when all builds are a blend of american, canadian and mexican parts.
    I would like to believe the American economy will survive sans canadas tourism dollars.  Please, just stay home canada.  
    The American economy will be fine for the most part without tourism from Canada, but I guarantee you that if will hurt all the border towns that Canadians frequent. Be great if other countries boycott American travel as well. Maybe all the nurses and hospital staff that cross the border into Michigan daily decide to work closer to home. The tariffs are going to hurt people up here but Americans are going to feel it as well, some worse than others but you’ll feel it.
    Well, I wouldn't fly here if I were you. Our skies do not appear safe at the moment...and I'd bet coercing a bunch of federal employees to quit won't improve matters. lol
    www.myspace.com
  • Tim Simmons
    Tim Simmons Posts: 9,497
    edited February 1
    The maddening thing is, things have been more than fine. They could have just stayed the course and gotten an easy W like they did in the first 3 years of the first admin. 


  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    Tim Simmons said:
    The maddening thing is, things have been more than fine. They could have just stayed the course and gotten an easy W like they did in the first 3 years of the first admin. 


    Yep. We were tracking very nicely for that soft landing. 
    www.myspace.com

Categories