#47 President Donald Trump

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  • DE4173DE4173 Posts: 1,330
    DE4173 said:
    AI because:

    Last fiscal year (2024, running from October 2023 to September 2024), U.S. Customs and Border Protection seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the U.S.-Canada border. Fentanyl is extremely potent, with a lethal dose estimated at around 2 milligrams for an average adult. To calculate the potential number of deaths:
    43 pounds = 19,504 grams (since 1 pound = 453.59 grams).
    19,504 grams = 19,504,000 milligrams (since 1 gram = 1,000 milligrams).
    Dividing by 2 milligrams per lethal dose: 19,504,000 mg ÷ 2 mg = 9,752,000 potential deaths.
    Thus, the 43 pounds of fentanyl seized from Canada last fiscal year could theoretically kill approximately 9.75 million people, assuming each lethal dose is 2 milligrams and all of it reached users in fatal amounts. This figure aligns with claims circulating in public discourse, though real-world outcomes depend on factors like distribution, purity, and intervention efforts. For context, this is a tiny fraction of the 21,889 pounds seized nationwide, with 96.6% coming from Mexico.
    Now ask it to determine the total number of deaths due to fentanyl, regardless of origin or border crossed, and then give the total number of pounds of fentanyl entering or produced in the US and do the maths.
    🫡

    Total Number of Deaths Due to Fentanyl in the U.S. (Regardless of Origin or Border Crossed)
    To determine the total number of deaths due to fentanyl in the U.S. for the most recent fiscal year available (Fiscal Year 2024, October 2023–September 2024), we rely on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other authoritative sources. Fiscal Year 2024 data is still provisional, so I'll use the latest complete annual data and adjust based on trends.
    Calendar Year 2023: The CDC reported 107,543 drug overdose deaths in the U.S., with synthetic opioids (primarily fentanyl) involved in 74,702 of them, according to the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Data Brief No. 522, published December 2024. This figure reflects deaths where fentanyl was detected, though it may overlap with other drugs in polydrug cases.
    Trend Adjustment for FY 2024: Provisional CDC data indicates a significant decline in overdose deaths starting mid-2023. For the 12 months ending August 2024, total overdose deaths dropped to 89,740, a 21.7% decrease from the 111,464 in the prior 12 months (September 2022–August 2023). Synthetic opioid deaths (mostly fentanyl) fell from 79,815 to 57,997 in the same period, per the Progressive Policy Institute’s analysis of CDC estimates. Extrapolating to FY 2024 (October 2023–September 2024), which overlaps this period, and assuming the trend holds, fentanyl-related deaths likely range between 55,000 and 60,000 for the fiscal year. This is a rough estimate due to incomplete 2024 data.
    Thus, the total number of deaths due to fentanyl in FY 2024, regardless of origin or border crossed, is approximately 55,000 to 60,000, based on the latest provisional data and trends. For a precise historical figure, FY 2023 (October 2022–September 2023) aligns closely with the 2023 calendar year’s 74,702, slightly adjusted for fiscal overlap.
    Total Number of Pounds of Fentanyl Entering or Produced in the U.S.
    Determining the total amount of fentanyl entering or produced in the U.S. is challenging because it includes both seized amounts (tracked by agencies like U.S. Customs and Border Protection [CBP] and the Drug Enforcement Administration [DEA]) and undetected amounts, which can only be estimated. Domestic production is minimal, as most fentanyl is illicitly manufactured abroad (primarily in Mexico using precursors from China) and smuggled in. Here’s the breakdown for FY 2024:
    Seized Fentanyl at Borders: CBP reported seizing 21,889 pounds of fentanyl nationwide in FY 2024 (October 2023–September 2024), per their official statistics. This includes:
    Southern Border (Mexico): Approximately 21,100 pounds (96.6% of total seizures, per NPR and CBP data).
    Northern Border (Canada): 43 pounds (0.2% of total seizures).
    Other Ports (e.g., California ports, mail facilities): The remainder, roughly 746 pounds, though specific breakdowns vary by month.
    DEA Seizures Nationwide: The DEA seized 55.5 million fentanyl pills and unspecified powder amounts in 2024 (calendar year, not fiscal), equating to over 386 million lethal doses. Converting pills to weight (assuming an average of 0.1 grams per pill, a common estimate), that’s about 12,228 pounds of fentanyl in pill form, plus additional powder. However, this overlaps with CBP seizures, as DEA totals include border and inland interdictions. For FY 2024 alignment, DEA’s contribution beyond CBP is likely a few thousand additional pounds inland.
    Undetected Fentanyl: Estimating undetected fentanyl is speculative. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) suggested in 2021 that only about 3% of cocaine at ports of entry is intercepted, but fentanyl interception rates are higher due to targeted efforts (possibly 10–20%, per expert estimates). If 21,889 pounds represent 10–20% of the total entering, the actual amount could be 109,445 to 218,890 pounds. However, declining death rates and reduced pill potency (5/10 pills lethal in 2024 vs. 7/10 in 2023, per DEA) suggest supply might not be scaling linearly with seizures. A conservative estimate, factoring in these trends, places undetected fentanyl at 50,000–100,000 pounds annually.
    Total Estimate: Combining seized (21,889 pounds) and undetected fentanyl, the total entering or produced in the U.S. in FY 2024 is likely between 71,889 and 121,889 pounds. Domestic production is negligible, so this reflects imports, mostly via Mexico. The wide range reflects uncertainty in undetected amounts, but it’s grounded in seizure data and trend analysis.
    Summary
    Deaths Due to Fentanyl (FY 2024): Approximately 55,000–60,000.
    Total Fentanyl Entering/Produced (FY 2024): Approximately 71,889–121,889 pounds.
    These figures are based on the latest available data as of March 5, 2025, and critically account for both reported seizures and reasonable estimates of undetected supply, adjusted for observed declines in mortality and potency.
    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • Hawk123Hawk123 Posts: 2,309
    DE4173 said:
    AI because:

    Last fiscal year (2024, running from October 2023 to September 2024), U.S. Customs and Border Protection seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the U.S.-Canada border. Fentanyl is extremely potent, with a lethal dose estimated at around 2 milligrams for an average adult. To calculate the potential number of deaths:
    43 pounds = 19,504 grams (since 1 pound = 453.59 grams).
    19,504 grams = 19,504,000 milligrams (since 1 gram = 1,000 milligrams).
    Dividing by 2 milligrams per lethal dose: 19,504,000 mg ÷ 2 mg = 9,752,000 potential deaths.
    Thus, the 43 pounds of fentanyl seized from Canada last fiscal year could theoretically kill approximately 9.75 million people, assuming each lethal dose is 2 milligrams and all of it reached users in fatal amounts. This figure aligns with claims circulating in public discourse, though real-world outcomes depend on factors like distribution, purity, and intervention efforts. For context, this is a tiny fraction of the 21,889 pounds seized nationwide, with 96.6% coming from Mexico.
    Now ask it to determine the total number of deaths due to fentanyl, regardless of origin or border crossed, and then give the total number of pounds of fentanyl entering or produced in the US and do the maths.
    Can you then ask it how many bullets the US produces and how many shots it takes on average to kill a person? 
  • DE4173DE4173 Posts: 1,330
    Hawk123 said:
    DE4173 said:
    AI because:

    Last fiscal year (2024, running from October 2023 to September 2024), U.S. Customs and Border Protection seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the U.S.-Canada border. Fentanyl is extremely potent, with a lethal dose estimated at around 2 milligrams for an average adult. To calculate the potential number of deaths:
    43 pounds = 19,504 grams (since 1 pound = 453.59 grams).
    19,504 grams = 19,504,000 milligrams (since 1 gram = 1,000 milligrams).
    Dividing by 2 milligrams per lethal dose: 19,504,000 mg ÷ 2 mg = 9,752,000 potential deaths.
    Thus, the 43 pounds of fentanyl seized from Canada last fiscal year could theoretically kill approximately 9.75 million people, assuming each lethal dose is 2 milligrams and all of it reached users in fatal amounts. This figure aligns with claims circulating in public discourse, though real-world outcomes depend on factors like distribution, purity, and intervention efforts. For context, this is a tiny fraction of the 21,889 pounds seized nationwide, with 96.6% coming from Mexico.
    Now ask it to determine the total number of deaths due to fentanyl, regardless of origin or border crossed, and then give the total number of pounds of fentanyl entering or produced in the US and do the maths.
    Can you then ask it how many bullets the US produces and how many shots it takes on average to kill a person? 
    🫡

    Annual Bullet Production in the United States
    Estimating the exact number of bullets (small arms ammunition) produced in the U.S. each year is tricky because comprehensive, up-to-date public data from manufacturers is limited, and production figures often blend commercial and military outputs. However, based on available industry insights and historical trends, we can piece together a reasonable estimate as of March 5, 2025.
    Industry Estimates: The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), which tracks firearms and ammunition trends, reported that U.S. manufacturers produced approximately 8.7 billion rounds of ammunition in 2020, a figure cited widely during the pandemic-driven ammo surge. This includes all calibers (handgun, rifle, shotgun, etc.) for civilian, law enforcement, and some military use. Production capacity has since expanded to meet demand, with companies like Vista Outdoor (owner of Federal, CCI, and Speer) and Olin Corporation (Winchester) ramping up output.
    Military Production: The U.S. Army’s Lake City Army Ammunition Plant, a key supplier of military small arms ammo (e.g., 5.56mm, 7.62mm), has a capacity of about 1.2 to 1.5 billion rounds annually, per a 2023 Army statement. During wartime or high demand (like FY 2024, with 21,889 pounds of fentanyl seized indicating heightened border security), this can scale up. Total military production, including other facilities, likely adds 2–3 billion rounds yearly, separate from or overlapping with commercial figures.
    Current Trends: Ammo demand spiked in 2020–2021 due to civil unrest, elections, and new gun ownership (9 million new owners in 2020 alone, per NSSF). While it’s cooled slightly, 2024 production likely exceeds 2020’s 8.7 billion due to sustained civilian demand and export growth (e.g., Ukraine aid). A 2013 WIRED estimate of 10 billion rounds annually is often cited, and with capacity increases, experts like John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org suggest 10–12 billion rounds as plausible for 2024.
    Best Estimate: Accounting for commercial (8–10 billion) and military (2–3 billion) production, the U.S. likely produces 10–12 billion bullets annually as of 2025. This aligns with the NSSF’s 2020 baseline, adjusted for growth and anecdotal reports from ammo retailers facing shortages into 2024.
    Average Number of Shots to Kill a Person
    The number of shots required to kill a person varies widely depending on context—combat, crime, or medical outcomes—and is influenced by factors like bullet caliber, shot placement, distance, and victim resilience. There’s no universal “average,” but we can derive estimates from military and civilian data.
    Military Context:
    Vietnam War: Historical data suggests U.S. forces expended 50,000 rounds of M-16 ammo (5.56mm) per enemy killed, per a 1970s Department of Defense analysis. This includes suppressive fire, training, and missed shots, not direct hits. Actual hits-to-kill likely ranged from 1–3 shots, per wound ballistics studies.
    Iraq/Afghanistan: Researcher John Pike estimated 250,000 small-caliber rounds per insurgent killed, including training and combat. In direct engagements, studies like the 2006 Joint Special Operations University report suggest 2–5 hits to incapacitate, with 1–3 fatal if vital areas (head, chest) are struck.
    Wound Ballistics: Per Dr. Martin Fackler’s research, 80% of body shots are non-fatal; a single well-placed rifle round (e.g., 5.56mm) to the heart or brain can kill instantly, while multiple peripheral hits may not.
    Civilian/Criminal Context:
    Boston Study (2018): A JAMA Network Open study of 2010–2014 shootings found that caliber size mattered—larger rounds (.40, .45) increased lethality vs. 9mm. Most shootings involved 1–2 shots, with a single hit fatal in 20–40% of cases, depending on placement (e.g., head shots: 90% fatal; torso: 50%).
    FBI Data: In police shootings, officers fire an average of 2–5 rounds per incident, with 1–2 hits often sufficient to kill if center-mass or headshots, per 2022 FBI stats. Criminal shootings show similar patterns, though accuracy is lower.
    Anecdotal Cases: Survivors like Kenny Vaughan (shot 20 times, 1995) or Sean Guzman (13 shots, 2006) highlight variability—most shots missed vital organs. Conversely, a single .22 caliber to the brain can kill instantly.
    General Lethality: The CDC’s 2022 data shows 48,204 firearm deaths from 19,651 homicides and 27,032 suicides. Homicides often involve 1–3 shots (per autopsy studies), with a 20–25% fatality rate per shooting incident (Everytown Research). Suicides are near-100% fatal with one headshot.
    Best Estimate: In direct engagements (combat or crime), it takes 1–3 shots on average to kill a person, assuming at least one hits a vital area (head, heart, major arteries). In broader military contexts, including misses and suppressive fire, the ratio balloons to tens or hundreds of thousands of rounds per death. For a practical average across all scenarios:
    Direct Hits: 1–3 shots, with 1 often enough if perfectly placed.
    Real-World Incidents: 2–5 shots fired, 1–2 hitting, based on police and criminal data.
    Summary
    U.S. Bullet Production: 10–12 billion rounds annually.
    Shots to Kill: 1–3 direct hits on average in controlled scenarios; vastly more when factoring in combat inefficiencies.
    These figures reflect both the scale of U.S. ammo output and the messy reality of firearm lethality, where precision trumps volume.
    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • Hawk123Hawk123 Posts: 2,309
    DE4173 said:
    Hawk123 said:
    DE4173 said:
    AI because:

    Last fiscal year (2024, running from October 2023 to September 2024), U.S. Customs and Border Protection seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the U.S.-Canada border. Fentanyl is extremely potent, with a lethal dose estimated at around 2 milligrams for an average adult. To calculate the potential number of deaths:
    43 pounds = 19,504 grams (since 1 pound = 453.59 grams).
    19,504 grams = 19,504,000 milligrams (since 1 gram = 1,000 milligrams).
    Dividing by 2 milligrams per lethal dose: 19,504,000 mg ÷ 2 mg = 9,752,000 potential deaths.
    Thus, the 43 pounds of fentanyl seized from Canada last fiscal year could theoretically kill approximately 9.75 million people, assuming each lethal dose is 2 milligrams and all of it reached users in fatal amounts. This figure aligns with claims circulating in public discourse, though real-world outcomes depend on factors like distribution, purity, and intervention efforts. For context, this is a tiny fraction of the 21,889 pounds seized nationwide, with 96.6% coming from Mexico.
    Now ask it to determine the total number of deaths due to fentanyl, regardless of origin or border crossed, and then give the total number of pounds of fentanyl entering or produced in the US and do the maths.
    Can you then ask it how many bullets the US produces and how many shots it takes on average to kill a person? 
    🫡

    Annual Bullet Production in the United States
    Estimating the exact number of bullets (small arms ammunition) produced in the U.S. each year is tricky because comprehensive, up-to-date public data from manufacturers is limited, and production figures often blend commercial and military outputs. However, based on available industry insights and historical trends, we can piece together a reasonable estimate as of March 5, 2025.
    Industry Estimates: The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), which tracks firearms and ammunition trends, reported that U.S. manufacturers produced approximately 8.7 billion rounds of ammunition in 2020, a figure cited widely during the pandemic-driven ammo surge. This includes all calibers (handgun, rifle, shotgun, etc.) for civilian, law enforcement, and some military use. Production capacity has since expanded to meet demand, with companies like Vista Outdoor (owner of Federal, CCI, and Speer) and Olin Corporation (Winchester) ramping up output.
    Military Production: The U.S. Army’s Lake City Army Ammunition Plant, a key supplier of military small arms ammo (e.g., 5.56mm, 7.62mm), has a capacity of about 1.2 to 1.5 billion rounds annually, per a 2023 Army statement. During wartime or high demand (like FY 2024, with 21,889 pounds of fentanyl seized indicating heightened border security), this can scale up. Total military production, including other facilities, likely adds 2–3 billion rounds yearly, separate from or overlapping with commercial figures.
    Current Trends: Ammo demand spiked in 2020–2021 due to civil unrest, elections, and new gun ownership (9 million new owners in 2020 alone, per NSSF). While it’s cooled slightly, 2024 production likely exceeds 2020’s 8.7 billion due to sustained civilian demand and export growth (e.g., Ukraine aid). A 2013 WIRED estimate of 10 billion rounds annually is often cited, and with capacity increases, experts like John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org suggest 10–12 billion rounds as plausible for 2024.
    Best Estimate: Accounting for commercial (8–10 billion) and military (2–3 billion) production, the U.S. likely produces 10–12 billion bullets annually as of 2025. This aligns with the NSSF’s 2020 baseline, adjusted for growth and anecdotal reports from ammo retailers facing shortages into 2024.
    Average Number of Shots to Kill a Person
    The number of shots required to kill a person varies widely depending on context—combat, crime, or medical outcomes—and is influenced by factors like bullet caliber, shot placement, distance, and victim resilience. There’s no universal “average,” but we can derive estimates from military and civilian data.
    Military Context:
    Vietnam War: Historical data suggests U.S. forces expended 50,000 rounds of M-16 ammo (5.56mm) per enemy killed, per a 1970s Department of Defense analysis. This includes suppressive fire, training, and missed shots, not direct hits. Actual hits-to-kill likely ranged from 1–3 shots, per wound ballistics studies.
    Iraq/Afghanistan: Researcher John Pike estimated 250,000 small-caliber rounds per insurgent killed, including training and combat. In direct engagements, studies like the 2006 Joint Special Operations University report suggest 2–5 hits to incapacitate, with 1–3 fatal if vital areas (head, chest) are struck.
    Wound Ballistics: Per Dr. Martin Fackler’s research, 80% of body shots are non-fatal; a single well-placed rifle round (e.g., 5.56mm) to the heart or brain can kill instantly, while multiple peripheral hits may not.
    Civilian/Criminal Context:
    Boston Study (2018): A JAMA Network Open study of 2010–2014 shootings found that caliber size mattered—larger rounds (.40, .45) increased lethality vs. 9mm. Most shootings involved 1–2 shots, with a single hit fatal in 20–40% of cases, depending on placement (e.g., head shots: 90% fatal; torso: 50%).
    FBI Data: In police shootings, officers fire an average of 2–5 rounds per incident, with 1–2 hits often sufficient to kill if center-mass or headshots, per 2022 FBI stats. Criminal shootings show similar patterns, though accuracy is lower.
    Anecdotal Cases: Survivors like Kenny Vaughan (shot 20 times, 1995) or Sean Guzman (13 shots, 2006) highlight variability—most shots missed vital organs. Conversely, a single .22 caliber to the brain can kill instantly.
    General Lethality: The CDC’s 2022 data shows 48,204 firearm deaths from 19,651 homicides and 27,032 suicides. Homicides often involve 1–3 shots (per autopsy studies), with a 20–25% fatality rate per shooting incident (Everytown Research). Suicides are near-100% fatal with one headshot.
    Best Estimate: In direct engagements (combat or crime), it takes 1–3 shots on average to kill a person, assuming at least one hits a vital area (head, heart, major arteries). In broader military contexts, including misses and suppressive fire, the ratio balloons to tens or hundreds of thousands of rounds per death. For a practical average across all scenarios:
    Direct Hits: 1–3 shots, with 1 often enough if perfectly placed.
    Real-World Incidents: 2–5 shots fired, 1–2 hitting, based on police and criminal data.
    Summary
    U.S. Bullet Production: 10–12 billion rounds annually.
    Shots to Kill: 1–3 direct hits on average in controlled scenarios; vastly more when factoring in combat inefficiencies.
    These figures reflect both the scale of U.S. ammo output and the messy reality of firearm lethality, where precision trumps volume.
    So enough to kill 4-12 billion people. This is how stupid the fentanyl calculation argument is.
  • DE4173DE4173 Posts: 1,330
    To compare guns and fentanyl in the U.S., I’ll focus on key metrics based on your prior questions: deaths caused, quantities involved (bullets vs. pounds of fentanyl), and their potential lethality, using the latest FY 2024 data where possible (October 2023–September 2024, adjusted to March 5, 2025 context). This builds on the figures already calculated—fentanyl deaths and pounds, bullet production, and shots-to-kill—while framing them side by side for clarity.
    1. Deaths Caused
    Fentanyl: Approximately 55,000–60,000 deaths in FY 2024, based on provisional CDC data showing a decline to 57,997 synthetic opioid deaths (mostly fentanyl) for the 12 months ending August 2024, adjusted for fiscal overlap. This reflects overdoses from all sources, regardless of origin.
    Guns: For FY 2024, exact figures are pending, but calendar year 2022 (CDC) provides a baseline: 48,204 firearm deaths, split into 19,651 homicides, 27,032 suicides, and 1,521 unintentional/legal intervention deaths. Provisional 2023 data shows a slight rise (e.g., 20,958 homicides per Gun Violence Archive), but 2024 trends suggest stabilization or a minor drop (e.g., 10% homicide decline in some cities, per Axios). Estimating FY 2024 at 47,000–50,000 deaths is reasonable, pending final data.
    Comparison: Fentanyl kills more people annually (55,000–60,000) than guns (47,000–50,000), a gap of roughly 5,000–10,000 deaths. Fentanyl’s toll is concentrated in overdoses, while gun deaths split across intentional (homicide/suicide) and accidental causes.
    2. Quantities Involved
    Fentanyl: Total entering/produced in the U.S. in FY 2024 is 71,889–121,889 pounds, including 21,889 pounds seized (CBP) and an estimated 50,000–100,000 pounds undetected. Each pound (453,590 mg) could theoretically yield 226,795 lethal doses (at 2 mg each), so 71,889 pounds = ~16.3 billion doses, and 121,889 pounds = ~27.6 billion doses.
    Bullets: U.S. production is 10–12 billion rounds annually, covering civilian and military small arms ammo (NSSF, Lake City estimates). This excludes imports (minor) and stockpiles, focusing on new output.
    Comparison: Fentanyl’s potential lethal units (16.3–27.6 billion doses) exceed bullet production (10–12 billion rounds) by 1.5–2.5 times in sheer numbers. However, bullets are discrete, single-use items, while fentanyl’s “doses” depend on distribution and purity—much seized fentanyl is diluted or never reaches users.
    3. Lethality Potential
    Fentanyl per Unit: A 2 mg dose is lethal to an average adult (DEA estimate), though overdoses often involve higher amounts (e.g., 5–10 mg) due to tolerance or mixing. The 21,889 pounds seized in FY 2024 could kill ~4.97 million people if perfectly distributed (21,889 × 226,795 doses), far exceeding actual deaths (55,000–60,000), showing most doesn’t reach fatal circulation.
    Bullets per Unit: It takes 1–3 shots to kill in direct hits (military/civilian data), with 1 often sufficient for vital areas (e.g., headshot: 90% fatal). The 10–12 billion rounds produced could theoretically kill 3.3–12 billion people if every shot hit fatally, but real-world accuracy (e.g., 20–25% fatality per shooting incident) limits this to the 47,000–50,000 actual deaths.
    Comparison: Fentanyl’s per-unit lethality (1 dose = 1 potential death) is more efficient than bullets (1–3 shots = 1 death), but its impact requires ingestion and precise dosing, while bullets deliver immediate physical trauma. Fentanyl’s seized quantity alone could kill ~5 million, vs. ~50,000 for guns’ annual toll, highlighting fentanyl’s unrealized potential vs. guns’ realized use.
    4. Broader Context
    Availability: Guns are legal, with ~400 million in civilian hands (NSSF 2023 estimate), and ammo production (10–12 billion rounds) supports widespread use. Fentanyl is illicit, with 71,889–121,889 pounds smuggled or produced illegally, mostly via Mexico (96.6% of seizures).
    Intent: Gun deaths include deliberate acts (homicides: ~20,000; suicides: ~27,000), while fentanyl deaths are largely unintentional overdoses (55,000–60,000), though some involve reckless distribution (e.g., dealers lacing drugs).
    Societal Reach: Guns kill across demographics, with peaks in urban violence (homicides) and rural suicides. Fentanyl hits drug users hardest, with 70% of 2023 overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids (CDC), often polydrug cases.
    Head-to-Head Summary
    Metric
    Fentanyl
    Guns
    Deaths (FY 2024)
    55,000–60,000
    47,000–50,000
    Quantity
    71,889–121,889 lbs
    10–12 billion rounds
    Lethal Units
    16.3–27.6 billion doses
    3.3–12 billion kills (max)
    Shots/Doses to Kill
    1 dose (~2 mg)
    1–3 shots
    Actual vs. Potential
    55k–60k vs. ~5M (seized)
    47k–50k vs. 3.3B–12B
    Key Takeaways
    Deadliness: Fentanyl edges out guns in annual deaths (by ~10–20%), despite guns’ broader cultural presence.
    Scale: Fentanyl’s potential lethality (billions of doses) dwarfs bullets produced, but its real impact is curtailed by distribution and intervention.
    Efficiency: Fentanyl kills with one dose; guns need 1–3 hits, making fentanyl theoretically more “efficient” per unit, though less predictable in practice.
    Guns and fentanyl represent distinct threats: guns as tools of intentional violence, fentanyl as a stealthy overdose killer. Their comparison hinges on realized harm (close) vs. theoretical destruction (fentanyl wins). Which is “worse” depends on whether you prioritize body count, intent, or untapped danger.
    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 40,165
    Hawk123 said:
    DE4173 said:
    Hawk123 said:
    DE4173 said:
    AI because:

    Last fiscal year (2024, running from October 2023 to September 2024), U.S. Customs and Border Protection seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the U.S.-Canada border. Fentanyl is extremely potent, with a lethal dose estimated at around 2 milligrams for an average adult. To calculate the potential number of deaths:
    43 pounds = 19,504 grams (since 1 pound = 453.59 grams).
    19,504 grams = 19,504,000 milligrams (since 1 gram = 1,000 milligrams).
    Dividing by 2 milligrams per lethal dose: 19,504,000 mg ÷ 2 mg = 9,752,000 potential deaths.
    Thus, the 43 pounds of fentanyl seized from Canada last fiscal year could theoretically kill approximately 9.75 million people, assuming each lethal dose is 2 milligrams and all of it reached users in fatal amounts. This figure aligns with claims circulating in public discourse, though real-world outcomes depend on factors like distribution, purity, and intervention efforts. For context, this is a tiny fraction of the 21,889 pounds seized nationwide, with 96.6% coming from Mexico.
    Now ask it to determine the total number of deaths due to fentanyl, regardless of origin or border crossed, and then give the total number of pounds of fentanyl entering or produced in the US and do the maths.
    Can you then ask it how many bullets the US produces and how many shots it takes on average to kill a person? 
    🫡

    Annual Bullet Production in the United States
    Estimating the exact number of bullets (small arms ammunition) produced in the U.S. each year is tricky because comprehensive, up-to-date public data from manufacturers is limited, and production figures often blend commercial and military outputs. However, based on available industry insights and historical trends, we can piece together a reasonable estimate as of March 5, 2025.
    Industry Estimates: The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), which tracks firearms and ammunition trends, reported that U.S. manufacturers produced approximately 8.7 billion rounds of ammunition in 2020, a figure cited widely during the pandemic-driven ammo surge. This includes all calibers (handgun, rifle, shotgun, etc.) for civilian, law enforcement, and some military use. Production capacity has since expanded to meet demand, with companies like Vista Outdoor (owner of Federal, CCI, and Speer) and Olin Corporation (Winchester) ramping up output.
    Military Production: The U.S. Army’s Lake City Army Ammunition Plant, a key supplier of military small arms ammo (e.g., 5.56mm, 7.62mm), has a capacity of about 1.2 to 1.5 billion rounds annually, per a 2023 Army statement. During wartime or high demand (like FY 2024, with 21,889 pounds of fentanyl seized indicating heightened border security), this can scale up. Total military production, including other facilities, likely adds 2–3 billion rounds yearly, separate from or overlapping with commercial figures.
    Current Trends: Ammo demand spiked in 2020–2021 due to civil unrest, elections, and new gun ownership (9 million new owners in 2020 alone, per NSSF). While it’s cooled slightly, 2024 production likely exceeds 2020’s 8.7 billion due to sustained civilian demand and export growth (e.g., Ukraine aid). A 2013 WIRED estimate of 10 billion rounds annually is often cited, and with capacity increases, experts like John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org suggest 10–12 billion rounds as plausible for 2024.
    Best Estimate: Accounting for commercial (8–10 billion) and military (2–3 billion) production, the U.S. likely produces 10–12 billion bullets annually as of 2025. This aligns with the NSSF’s 2020 baseline, adjusted for growth and anecdotal reports from ammo retailers facing shortages into 2024.
    Average Number of Shots to Kill a Person
    The number of shots required to kill a person varies widely depending on context—combat, crime, or medical outcomes—and is influenced by factors like bullet caliber, shot placement, distance, and victim resilience. There’s no universal “average,” but we can derive estimates from military and civilian data.
    Military Context:
    Vietnam War: Historical data suggests U.S. forces expended 50,000 rounds of M-16 ammo (5.56mm) per enemy killed, per a 1970s Department of Defense analysis. This includes suppressive fire, training, and missed shots, not direct hits. Actual hits-to-kill likely ranged from 1–3 shots, per wound ballistics studies.
    Iraq/Afghanistan: Researcher John Pike estimated 250,000 small-caliber rounds per insurgent killed, including training and combat. In direct engagements, studies like the 2006 Joint Special Operations University report suggest 2–5 hits to incapacitate, with 1–3 fatal if vital areas (head, chest) are struck.
    Wound Ballistics: Per Dr. Martin Fackler’s research, 80% of body shots are non-fatal; a single well-placed rifle round (e.g., 5.56mm) to the heart or brain can kill instantly, while multiple peripheral hits may not.
    Civilian/Criminal Context:
    Boston Study (2018): A JAMA Network Open study of 2010–2014 shootings found that caliber size mattered—larger rounds (.40, .45) increased lethality vs. 9mm. Most shootings involved 1–2 shots, with a single hit fatal in 20–40% of cases, depending on placement (e.g., head shots: 90% fatal; torso: 50%).
    FBI Data: In police shootings, officers fire an average of 2–5 rounds per incident, with 1–2 hits often sufficient to kill if center-mass or headshots, per 2022 FBI stats. Criminal shootings show similar patterns, though accuracy is lower.
    Anecdotal Cases: Survivors like Kenny Vaughan (shot 20 times, 1995) or Sean Guzman (13 shots, 2006) highlight variability—most shots missed vital organs. Conversely, a single .22 caliber to the brain can kill instantly.
    General Lethality: The CDC’s 2022 data shows 48,204 firearm deaths from 19,651 homicides and 27,032 suicides. Homicides often involve 1–3 shots (per autopsy studies), with a 20–25% fatality rate per shooting incident (Everytown Research). Suicides are near-100% fatal with one headshot.
    Best Estimate: In direct engagements (combat or crime), it takes 1–3 shots on average to kill a person, assuming at least one hits a vital area (head, heart, major arteries). In broader military contexts, including misses and suppressive fire, the ratio balloons to tens or hundreds of thousands of rounds per death. For a practical average across all scenarios:
    Direct Hits: 1–3 shots, with 1 often enough if perfectly placed.
    Real-World Incidents: 2–5 shots fired, 1–2 hitting, based on police and criminal data.
    Summary
    U.S. Bullet Production: 10–12 billion rounds annually.
    Shots to Kill: 1–3 direct hits on average in controlled scenarios; vastly more when factoring in combat inefficiencies.
    These figures reflect both the scale of U.S. ammo output and the messy reality of firearm lethality, where precision trumps volume.
    So enough to kill 4-12 billion people. This is how stupid the fentanyl calculation argument is.
    Exactly, particularly with the criticism of Canada and order of priorities. Especially since the US exported more drugs and guns to Canada than they exported to the US. But you know, they steal from us.

    It’s like a CFO telling their computer security expert to monitor the supply room because of paper clip thefts while millions of dollars are being stolen through computer hacks. Thanks for keeping us safe COOTWH.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • DE4173DE4173 Posts: 1,330
    edited March 5
    To determine which country, the United States or Canada, exports more drugs and guns to the other, we’ll examine the available data on illicit drug trafficking (specifically fentanyl, given its prominence) and illegal firearms flows between the two nations, focusing on FY 2024 (October 2023–September 2024) where possible, as of March 5, 2025.
    Drugs (Focus on Fentanyl)
    U.S. to Canada: The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) reported seizing 10.8 pounds of fentanyl entering Canada from the U.S. in 2024 (calendar year, per Forbes). This is a small but notable amount, reflecting some northward trafficking. Historical data, like the 2003 Canada-U.S. Border Drug Threat Assessment, notes cocaine and precursor chemicals (e.g., pseudoephedrine) moving both ways, but recent fentanyl-specific flows from the U.S. are less documented in aggregate. Given the U.S.’s role as a consumer market and Canada’s domestic fentanyl crisis (often sourced from China via Canada), the U.S. isn’t a primary exporter, but some drugs do cross north.
    Canada to U.S.: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the northern border in FY 2024, a tiny fraction of the 21,148 pounds seized at the southwest border (Mexico). The DEA’s 2024 National Drug Threat Assessment doesn’t mention Canada as a significant source, and experts like Vanda Felbab-Brown (Brookings) assert “no indication at all” of major fentanyl flows from Canada to the U.S. The bipartisan 2022 Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking concurs, noting Canada’s criminal groups aren’t exporting large quantities south, unlike Mexico.
    Comparison: Canada exports more fentanyl to the U.S. by weight (43 pounds vs. 10.8 pounds seized), but both amounts are negligible compared to U.S.-Mexico flows (21,148 pounds). The U.S. is a net importer of fentanyl globally, with Canada contributing ~0.2% of seizures (CNN). Neither country is a dominant drug exporter to the other, but Canada’s southward flow slightly exceeds the U.S.’s northward flow in raw seizure data.
    Guns (Illicit Firearms)
    U.S. to Canada: Canada lacks significant domestic firearm manufacturing, relying heavily on U.S. imports—legally and illegally. A 2023 ATF report found 33.5% of traced U.S.-made crime guns worldwide were in Canada (2017–2021), far outpacing other regions. Canadian police, like Niagara Regional’s Chief Bill Fordy, report 90% of Ontario crime guns originate from the U.S. (WFAA, 2025). Estimates suggest 21,000+ firearms traced to the U.S. annually, with Bloomberg (2023) noting a 10-fold rise in U.S. semiautomatic exports over two decades, fueling a 7-fold increase in Canada’s shootings per capita. Illegal smuggling is rampant, with handguns from states like Florida and Georgia dominating (CBC, 2022).
    Canada to U.S.: Data on Canadian guns flowing south is scarce. The U.S., with ~400 million civilian firearms (NSSF, 2023), has no notable reliance on Canadian firearms, legal or illegal. ATF and CBP reports don’t highlight Canada as a source of crime guns in the U.S., and Canada’s stricter gun laws (e.g., 2022 handgun freeze) limit its export potential. Any flow is likely minimal, possibly via individual smuggling, but unquantified.
    Comparison: The U.S. overwhelmingly exports more guns to Canada than vice versa. Canada’s crime gun problem is largely U.S.-sourced (85–90% per X posts and police), while U.S. gun violence relies on domestic supply, not Canadian imports.
    Broader Context and Trade Dynamics
    Drugs: Both countries face drug inflows from elsewhere (Mexico, China), but between them, Canada’s 43 pounds to the U.S. vs. the U.S.’s 10.8 pounds to Canada suggests a slight Canadian edge in fentanyl exports. Other drugs (meth, cocaine) historically move both ways, but fentanyl dominates current discourse.
    Guns: The U.S. is a global firearms exporter, with Canada as its top per-capita buyer (Toronto Star, 2023). Legal U.S. exports (e.g., $349.4 billion in goods, including arms, per USTR 2024) dwarf Canada’s capacity, and illegal flows amplify this imbalance.
    Net Flow: Combining drugs and guns, the U.S. exports vastly more in firearms volume and impact, while Canada’s drug exports (fentanyl) are minor by comparison.
    Conclusion
    The United States exports more drugs and guns overall to Canada than Canada does to the U.S. The U.S. floods Canada with illegal firearms (tens of thousands annually, driving 85–90% of crime guns), outweighing Canada’s small fentanyl exports (43 pounds seized vs. 10.8 pounds northward). In terms of societal impact—gun violence in Canada vs. overdose deaths in the U.S.—the U.S.’s gun exports have a far greater footprint than Canada’s drug contributions, making the U.S. the dominant exporter in this bilateral exchange. Data gaps (e.g., undetected amounts) limit precision, but the trend is clear: guns south-to-north dwarf drugs north-to-south.

    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • Spiritual_ChaosSpiritual_Chaos Posts: 30,907
    edited March 5
    DE4173 said:
    To compare guns and fentanyl in the U.S., I’ll focus on key metrics based on your prior questions: deaths caused, quantities involved (bullets vs. pounds of fentanyl), and their potential lethality, using the latest FY 2024 data where possible (October 2023–September 2024, adjusted to March 5, 2025 context). This builds on the figures already calculated—fentanyl deaths and pounds, bullet production, and shots-to-kill—while framing them side by side for clarity.
    1. Deaths Caused
    Fentanyl: Approximately 55,000–60,000 deaths in FY 2024, based on provisional CDC data showing a decline to 57,997 synthetic opioid deaths (mostly fentanyl) for the 12 months ending August 2024, adjusted for fiscal overlap. This reflects overdoses from all sources, regardless of origin.
    Guns: For FY 2024, exact figures are pending, but calendar year 2022 (CDC) provides a baseline: 48,204 firearm deaths, split into 19,651 homicides, 27,032 suicides, and 1,521 unintentional/legal intervention deaths. Provisional 2023 data shows a slight rise (e.g., 20,958 homicides per Gun Violence Archive), but 2024 trends suggest stabilization or a minor drop (e.g., 10% homicide decline in some cities, per Axios). Estimating FY 2024 at 47,000–50,000 deaths is reasonable, pending final data.
    Comparison: Fentanyl kills more people annually (55,000–60,000) than guns (47,000–50,000), a gap of roughly 5,000–10,000 deaths. Fentanyl’s toll is concentrated in overdoses, while gun deaths split across intentional (homicide/suicide) and accidental causes.
    2. Quantities Involved
    Fentanyl: Total entering/produced in the U.S. in FY 2024 is 71,889–121,889 pounds, including 21,889 pounds seized (CBP) and an estimated 50,000–100,000 pounds undetected. Each pound (453,590 mg) could theoretically yield 226,795 lethal doses (at 2 mg each), so 71,889 pounds = ~16.3 billion doses, and 121,889 pounds = ~27.6 billion doses.
    Bullets: U.S. production is 10–12 billion rounds annually, covering civilian and military small arms ammo (NSSF, Lake City estimates). This excludes imports (minor) and stockpiles, focusing on new output.
    Comparison: Fentanyl’s potential lethal units (16.3–27.6 billion doses) exceed bullet production (10–12 billion rounds) by 1.5–2.5 times in sheer numbers. However, bullets are discrete, single-use items, while fentanyl’s “doses” depend on distribution and purity—much seized fentanyl is diluted or never reaches users.
    3. Lethality Potential
    Fentanyl per Unit: A 2 mg dose is lethal to an average adult (DEA estimate), though overdoses often involve higher amounts (e.g., 5–10 mg) due to tolerance or mixing. The 21,889 pounds seized in FY 2024 could kill ~4.97 million people if perfectly distributed (21,889 × 226,795 doses), far exceeding actual deaths (55,000–60,000), showing most doesn’t reach fatal circulation.
    Bullets per Unit: It takes 1–3 shots to kill in direct hits (military/civilian data), with 1 often sufficient for vital areas (e.g., headshot: 90% fatal). The 10–12 billion rounds produced could theoretically kill 3.3–12 billion people if every shot hit fatally, but real-world accuracy (e.g., 20–25% fatality per shooting incident) limits this to the 47,000–50,000 actual deaths.
    Comparison: Fentanyl’s per-unit lethality (1 dose = 1 potential death) is more efficient than bullets (1–3 shots = 1 death), but its impact requires ingestion and precise dosing, while bullets deliver immediate physical trauma. Fentanyl’s seized quantity alone could kill ~5 million, vs. ~50,000 for guns’ annual toll, highlighting fentanyl’s unrealized potential vs. guns’ realized use.
    4. Broader Context
    Availability: Guns are legal, with ~400 million in civilian hands (NSSF 2023 estimate), and ammo production (10–12 billion rounds) supports widespread use. Fentanyl is illicit, with 71,889–121,889 pounds smuggled or produced illegally, mostly via Mexico (96.6% of seizures).
    Intent: Gun deaths include deliberate acts (homicides: ~20,000; suicides: ~27,000), while fentanyl deaths are largely unintentional overdoses (55,000–60,000), though some involve reckless distribution (e.g., dealers lacing drugs).
    Societal Reach: Guns kill across demographics, with peaks in urban violence (homicides) and rural suicides. Fentanyl hits drug users hardest, with 70% of 2023 overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids (CDC), often polydrug cases.
    Head-to-Head Summary
    Metric
    Fentanyl
    Guns
    Deaths (FY 2024)
    55,000–60,000
    47,000–50,000
    Quantity
    71,889–121,889 lbs
    10–12 billion rounds
    Lethal Units
    16.3–27.6 billion doses
    3.3–12 billion kills (max)
    Shots/Doses to Kill
    1 dose (~2 mg)
    1–3 shots
    Actual vs. Potential
    55k–60k vs. ~5M (seized)
    47k–50k vs. 3.3B–12B
    Key Takeaways
    Deadliness: Fentanyl edges out guns in annual deaths (by ~10–20%), despite guns’ broader cultural presence.
    Scale: Fentanyl’s potential lethality (billions of doses) dwarfs bullets produced, but its real impact is curtailed by distribution and intervention.
    Efficiency: Fentanyl kills with one dose; guns need 1–3 hits, making fentanyl theoretically more “efficient” per unit, though less predictable in practice.
    Guns and fentanyl represent distinct threats: guns as tools of intentional violence, fentanyl as a stealthy overdose killer. Their comparison hinges on realized harm (close) vs. theoretical destruction (fentanyl wins). Which is “worse” depends on whether you prioritize body count, intent, or untapped danger.
    Name-calling, rude comment removed by Admin. See Posting Guidelines to retain posting privileges............
    Post edited by Kat on
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • DE4173DE4173 Posts: 1,330
    Sorry 😔 
    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • DE4173DE4173 Posts: 1,330
    edited March 5
    That said, did it correct anything that was posted?

    How is it any worse than googling for information/data?

    It's lazier/quicker for sure.
    Post edited by DE4173 on
    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 40,165
    DE4173 said:
    That said, did it correct anything that was posted?

    How is it any worse than googling for information/data?

    It's lazier for sure.
    No, as was already mentioned, it just illustrates in greater detail the stupid of the COOTWH administration and their actions, in a long and growing list of them.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Spiritual_ChaosSpiritual_Chaos Posts: 30,907
    DE4173 said:
    That said, did it correct anything that was posted?

    How is it any worse than googling for information/data?

    It's lazier/quicker for sure.
    Because of you ask it what album Peter LeMarc released in 1994, it will give you a title of an album that doesn’t exist. And Peter LeMarc didn’t release an album in 1994. 
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 21,357


    LOL
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Get_RightGet_Right Posts: 13,526
    If your comment is more than four lines. I do not read it. If you link to threads, I do not read it. Make your point, succinctly and intelligently. 
  • cblock4lifecblock4life Posts: 1,757
    nicknyr15 said:
    For anyone feeling hopeless or down today, please remember…. 


    I just got tickets Monday for Chicago.  Can’t wait! 
  • Go BeaversGo Beavers Posts: 9,319
    Comment cops are here. 
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 40,165


    LOL
    Thanks for keeping us safe COOTWH.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • DE4173DE4173 Posts: 1,330
    Thank you all for the constructive feedback (mostly) 😄

    The AI copy/paste didn't correct anything that was posted?🤔

    🚨***AI Warning***🚨

    1. The one reporter pressing her on Canada’s fentanyl being less than 1% and her answer was that it’s enough to kill 4.8 million people. 

    I don't know the intention of relaying it’s enough to kill 4.8 million people. Was it that it was a ridiculous claim, was it that 4.8 was too high, too low? 

    AI says 9.752M potential deaths 

    2. The fentanyl calculation argument is stupid.

    Comparison: Fentanyl kills more people annually (55,000–60,000) than guns (47,000–50,000), a gap of roughly 5,000–10,000 deaths. Fentanyl’s toll is concentrated in overdoses, while gun deaths split across intentional (homicide/suicide) and accidental causes.

    Comparison: Fentanyl’s potential lethal units (16.3–27.6 billion doses) exceed bullet production (10–12 billion rounds) by 1.5–2.5 times in sheer numbers. However, bullets are discrete, single-use items, while fentanyl’s “doses” depend on distribution and purity—much seized fentanyl is diluted or never reaches users.

    Comparison: Fentanyl’s per-unit lethality (1 dose = 1 potential death) is more efficient than bullets (1–3 shots = 1 death), but its impact requires ingestion and precise dosing, while bullets deliver immediate physical trauma. Fentanyl’s seized quantity alone could kill ~5 million, vs. ~50,000 for guns’ annual toll, highlighting fentanyl’s unrealized potential vs. guns’ realized use.

    Key Takeaways
    Deadliness: Fentanyl edges out guns in annual deaths (by ~10–20%), despite guns’ broader cultural presence.
    Scale: Fentanyl’s potential lethality (billions of doses) dwarfs bullets produced, but its real impact is curtailed by distribution and intervention.
    Efficiency: Fentanyl kills with one dose; guns need 1–3 hits, making fentanyl theoretically more “efficient” per unit, though less predictable in practice.
    Guns and fentanyl represent distinct threats: guns as tools of intentional violence, fentanyl as a stealthy overdose killer. Their comparison hinges on realized harm (close) vs. theoretical destruction (fentanyl wins). Which is “worse” depends on whether you prioritize body count, intent, or untapped danger.


    3. (Especially since) the US exported more drugs and guns to Canada than they exported to the US.

    Drugs: No
    Guns: Yes
    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • DE4173DE4173 Posts: 1,330
    DE4173 said:
    That said, did it correct anything that was posted?

    How is it any worse than googling for information/data?

    It's lazier/quicker for sure.
    Because of you ask it what album Peter LeMarc released in 1994, it will give you a title of an album that doesn’t exist. And Peter LeMarc didn’t release an album in 1994. 

    Peter LeMarc did not release a studio album in 1994. His discography shows a gap in new studio releases between 1993 and 1995. In 1993, he released the live album Buona Sera! Peter LeMarc Livslevande, recorded during his acclaimed tour that began in February 1993 in Trollhättan and included performances at Cirkus in Stockholm. His next studio album, Bok med blanka sidor, came out in March 1995, featuring notable tracks like "Tess" and "Fyra steg i det blå."
    There’s no evidence of a 1994 studio album release from Peter LeMarc based on available discographies and historical records. If you meant a different type of release (e.g., compilation or single), let me know, and I can refine the answer!
    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • nicknyr15nicknyr15 Posts: 8,756
    nicknyr15 said:
    For anyone feeling hopeless or down today, please remember…. 


    I just got tickets Monday for Chicago.  Can’t wait! 
    And Run the Jewels!!
    I’ll be at msg.
  • DE4173DE4173 Posts: 1,330
    Get_Right said:
    If your comment is more than four lines. I do not read it. If you link to threads, I do not read it. Make your point, succinctly and intelligently. 
    I hope
    that you
    are having
    an amazing day!
    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 21,357
    nicknyr15 said:
    nicknyr15 said:
    For anyone feeling hopeless or down today, please remember…. 


    I just got tickets Monday for Chicago.  Can’t wait! 
    And Run the Jewels!!
    I’ll be at msg.
    I saw them open for RATM...had no idea Killer Mike was in there
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • cblock4lifecblock4life Posts: 1,757
    nicknyr15 said:
    nicknyr15 said:
    For anyone feeling hopeless or down today, please remember…. 


    I just got tickets Monday for Chicago.  Can’t wait! 
    And Run the Jewels!!
    I’ll be at msg.
    RTJ were great before Rage in Pgh.  Have fun!  
  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,368
    nicknyr15 said:
    nicknyr15 said:
    For anyone feeling hopeless or down today, please remember…. 


    I just got tickets Monday for Chicago.  Can’t wait! 
    And Run the Jewels!!
    I’ll be at msg.
    I saw them open for RATM...had no idea Killer Mike was in there
    I was supposed to see them open for RATM but the show was postponed going into covid and eventually cancelled.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • DE4173DE4173 Posts: 1,330
    Whatever you
    do, no matter
    the circumstances
    never, ever, EVER
    1993: 11/22 Little Rock
    1996; 9/28 New York
    1997: 11/14 Oakland, 11/15 Oakland
    1998: 7/5 Dallas, 7/7 Albuquerque, 7/8 Phoenix, 7/10 San Diego, 7/11 Las Vegas
    2000: 10/17 Dallas
    2003: 4/3 OKC
    2012: 11/17 Tulsa(EV), 11/18 Tulsa(EV)
    2013: 11/16 OKC
    2014: 10/8 Tulsa
    2022: 9/20 OKC
    2023: 9/13 Ft Worth, 9/15 Ft Worth
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 40,165
    Get_Right said:
    If your comment is more than four lines. I do not read it. If you link to threads, I do not read it. Make your point, succinctly and intelligently. 
    Bonus points for a haiku?
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • eeriepadaveeeriepadave West Chester, PA Posts: 42,459
    This came up on my youtube suggestions. He's like a completely different person here. Almost normal.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqqKQP2sb4Q
    8/28/98- Camden, NJ
    10/31/09- Philly
    5/21/10- NYC
    9/2/12- Philly, PA
    7/19/13- Wrigley
    10/19/13- Brooklyn, NY
    10/21/13- Philly, PA
    10/22/13- Philly, PA
    10/27/13- Baltimore, MD
    4/28/16- Philly, PA
    4/29/16- Philly, PA
    5/1/16- NYC
    5/2/16- NYC
    9/2/18- Boston, MA
    9/4/18- Boston, MA
    9/14/22- Camden, NJ
    9/7/24- Philly, PA
    9/9/24- Philly, PA
    Tres Mts.- 3/23/11- Philly. PA
    Eddie Vedder- 6/25/11- Philly, PA
    RNDM- 3/9/16- Philly, PA
  • nicknyr15nicknyr15 Posts: 8,756
    nicknyr15 said:
    nicknyr15 said:
    For anyone feeling hopeless or down today, please remember…. 


    I just got tickets Monday for Chicago.  Can’t wait! 
    And Run the Jewels!!
    I’ll be at msg.
    I saw them open for RATM...had no idea Killer Mike was in there
    Me too! It’s funny that I got put on to them because of Jack white!! He had them open up for him at msg during lazaretto tour. I just happen to be there early so I checked it out. Hooked ever since. It was prob around RTJ2 
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,514
    edited March 5
    Eh. It’s all performative either way. Those standing and applauding don’t really give a shit about steel workers or some kid going to West Point. 
    How do you look a child with brain cancer in the eyes and not applaud him, even if it's theater? Do you think that kid comprehends politics? He just knows half the room didn't care to stand or clap for him...party of evil was the sitting party.  That's the truth.

    Of all the things listed you are right, no one gives a shit but man looking a small child cancer survivor in the eyes and not standing/applauding is fucking evil.  Stone cold fucking evil. 
    What's worse?

    Not clapping...

    Or

    Using him as a prop while simultaneously cutting the funds that are used to help find a cure for his disease?





    You know the answer, stone cold. 
    Post edited by The Juggler on
    www.myspace.com
  • Merkin BallerMerkin Baller Posts: 11,961
    Eh. It’s all performative either way. Those standing and applauding don’t really give a shit about steel workers or some kid going to West Point. 
    How do you look a child with brain cancer in the eyes and not applaud him, even if it's theater? Do you think that kid comprehends politics? He just knows half the room didn't care to stand or clap for him...party of evil was the sitting party.  That's the truth.

    Of all the things listed you are right, no one gives a shit but man looking a small child cancer survivor in the eyes and not standing/applauding is fucking evil.  Stone cold fucking evil. 
    What's worse?

    Not clapping...

    Or

    Using him as a prop while simultaneously cutting the funds that are used to help find a cure for his disease?





    You know the answer, stone cold. 
    “even if it’s theater”

     :D 
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