Who will be the Democratic nominee?

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  • ZoSoTim
    ZoSoTim Posts: 1,290
    Joe Biden
    One thing polling isn’t likely to accurately capture is young, first time voters who overwhelmingly favor Kamala over Darth Trump. A large wave of those could easily swing the election. 
    Dallas, TX (November 15, 2013)
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  • pjl44
    pjl44 Posts: 10,550
    Josh Shapiro
    ZoSoTim said:
    One thing polling isn’t likely to accurately capture is young, first time voters who overwhelmingly favor Kamala over Darth Trump. A large wave of those could easily swing the election. 
    Some potential bad news on that front....


  • pjl44
    pjl44 Posts: 10,550
    Josh Shapiro
    It's one poll but also just in general if you need to count on young voters you're doomed
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,664
    Joe Biden
    Polls, LOL.  Or as Trump would say, "Pole". 
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • josevolution
    josevolution Posts: 31,698
    Joe Biden
    It’s gonna be a tough fight no matter which way KH approaches the next 100 days! She’s the underdog!
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,664
    Joe Biden
    josevolution said:
    It’s gonna be a tough fight no matter which way KH approaches the next 100 days! She’s the underdog!

    Tough fight, yes.  But she's a tough lady.
    And as history has proven, when people fight for freedom, they rise above.  Never forget, friend, we are fighting for freedom.
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,856
    edited July 2024
    No polls should be taken seriously until they cover a time period where she is actually running for president (now)
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,887
    Kamala Harris
    pjl44 said:
    ZoSoTim said:
    One thing polling isn’t likely to accurately capture is young, first time voters who overwhelmingly favor Kamala over Darth Trump. A large wave of those could easily swing the election. 
    Some potential bad news on that front....


    First, this poll began and ended before Harris announced. 

    Second, QP doesn't provide the cross tabs.  So we know nothing about the size and distribution of the 18-34.  Drawing conclusions from this is a waste. 

    https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3901
  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,396
    Kamala Harris
    That's a total joke. No way in hell Trump gets 59% of 18-34 vote. Polls are not elections folks.
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • pjl44
    pjl44 Posts: 10,550
    Josh Shapiro
    Yes, I agree with all of this. My point was don't just automatically assume it's locked down.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,598
    edited July 2024
    Joe Biden
    pjl44 said:
    Yes, I agree with all of this. My point was don't just automatically assume it's locked down.
    Huh? The only people assuming anything were members of the Trump campaign.....

    The Harris nomination most assuredly takes away Trump's gains with younger voters, as well as minorities (although Trump was not necessarily gaining those voters--Joe was losing them mostly due to the age factor)...it also sures up the dem base moreso than before. 

    If I had to bet, I'd say Harris would have a 3-4 point national lead heading into Labor Day weekend. Of course, the swing states will decide it, but the odds of Trump losing, I think, are significantly higher than they were the moment his convention ended. 


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  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,664
    Joe Biden
    pjl44 said:
    Yes, I agree with all of this. My point was don't just automatically assume it's locked down.

    Yep, looooooong way to go.
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • CM189191
    CM189191 Posts: 6,927
    pjl44 said:
    Yes, I agree with all of this. My point was don't just automatically assume it's locked down.
    "In a six-way hypothetical race that includes other candidates"

    Poll Question:
    "4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent candidate, Cornel West running as an independent candidate, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, and Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, for whom would you vote?"

    I mean... what an awful polling question!

    Probably more relevant, from the same poll.  People have heard enough about tRump to know he's a terrible person & candidate.  


  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,887
    Kamala Harris
    The Juggler said:
    pjl44 said:
    Yes, I agree with all of this. My point was don't just automatically assume it's locked down.
    Huh? The only people assuming anything were members of the Trump campaign.....

    The Harris nomination most assuredly takes away Trump's gains with younger voters, as well as minorities (although Trump was not necessarily gaining those voters--Joe was losing them mostly due to the age factor)...it also sures up the dem base moreso than before. 

    If I had to bet, I'd say Harris would have a 3-4 point national lead heading into Labor Day weekend. Of course, the swing states will decide it, but the odds of Trump losing, I think, are significantly higher than they were the moment his convention ended. 


    The biggest change is now abortion.  Abortion and women's rights are now the focus of the campaign when you have a woman on the top of the ticket, speaking about it every day with credibility.  And don't you worry, Harris will speak about it daily.  

    And once Vance's remarks about abortion, divorce and abuse in a marriage become well known, well he will become more of a liability than the upside of juicing the base.  Then we can talk about this stupid-ass quote:

    The Democrats are talking about giving the vote to 16-year-olds,” Vance noted. “Let’s do this instead. Let’s give votes to all children in this country, but let’s give control over those votes to the parents of the children.” He continued, asking, “Doesn’t this mean that nonparents don’t have as much of a voice as parents? Doesn’t this mean that parents get a bigger say in how democracy functions?” He answered with a simple “yes” after saying “the Atlantic and the Washington Post and all the usual suspects” would criticize him.
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,273
    Yeah abortion and Project 25. They need to hang that around tRump/Vance's necks until the election. 
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,887
    Kamala Harris
    Gern Blansten said:
    Yeah abortion and Project 25. They need to hang that around tRump/Vance's necks until the election. 
    I think project 2025 only animates the D base.  It's pretty esoteric to be honest. Abortion is real and we know it drives people to the polls.  I wouldn't confuse the issues too much. 
  • Johnny Abruzzo
    Johnny Abruzzo Philly Posts: 12,396
    Kamala Harris
    mrussel1 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Yeah abortion and Project 25. They need to hang that around tRump/Vance's necks until the election. 
    I think project 2025 only animates the D base.  It's pretty esoteric to be honest. Abortion is real and we know it drives people to the polls.  I wouldn't confuse the issues too much. 
    Project 2025 = Authoritarianism - Something swing voters absolutely hate. Not abstract at all.
    Spectrum 10/27/09; New Orleans JazzFest 5/1/10; Made in America 9/2/12; Phila, PA 10/21/13; Phila,  PA 10/22/13; Baltimore Arena 10/27/13; Phila, PA 4/28/16; Phila, PA 4/29/16; Fenway Park 8/7/16; Fenway Park 9/2/18; Asbury Park 9/18/21; Camden 9/14/22; Las Vegas 5/16/24; Las Vegas 5/18/24; Phila, PA 9/7/24; Phila, PA 9/9/24; Baltimore Arena 9/12/24; Pittsburgh 5/16/25; Pittsburgh 5/18/25

    Tres Mtns - TLA 3/23/11; EV - Tower Theatre 6/25/11; Temple of the Dog - Tower Theatre 11/5/16
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,273
    edited July 2024
    And it also addresses abortion and reproductive rights.

    AND..tRump has been running from it. All the more reason to make him own it. If he pushes too far away from it the religious psychos will sour
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,887
    Kamala Harris
    He's just going to disavow it.  He already has. 
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    Joe Biden
    mrussel1 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Yeah abortion and Project 25. They need to hang that around tRump/Vance's necks until the election. 
    I think project 2025 only animates the D base.  It's pretty esoteric to be honest. Abortion is real and we know it drives people to the polls.  I wouldn't confuse the issues too much. 
    Project 2025 is the future of America.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley

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