Capitalism, The Fed and Economic Policy

tempo_n_groove

Halifax2TheMax said:

mrussel1 said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Halifax2TheMax said:

tempo_n_groove said:

OK so Amazon throws their name in there too with 10,000 layoffs.

So we have the big 3 of Twitter, Meta/FB and Amazon laying off 30,000+ workers.  Well THAT should help out w inflation when the unemployment rate goes up.

Something is up when you have 3 bigs cut a chunk of their workforce or are they just trimming the fat, i don't think so.

Seems AOC may have saved her district from being a ghost town after jettisoning the locals for "jobs?"

I also didn't like the Amazon deal when it was presented.  With the real-estate problems right now that area may have turned to crap.  We don't know though.  

Rent is like $3700 average asking there.  It's not in my top 10 but I also don't understand how people can afford these things?

Immigrant families of 4,5 or 6+ sharing a one bedroom apartment with everyone working menial jobs and contributing in some way.

In the burbs or somewhere else, not in LIC and the top 5 places in Manhattan.  That is what Queens is for.

I was thinking the location of the proposed Amazon campus in AOC’s district. 

AOC didn't have anything being built  by amazon in her district, that was the big deal by everyone that she was not even part of that district.

It was going to be a mass effect though in her district as it was a bedroom away.  That is the border of LIC and is the vey Queens I was talking about, lol.  

So you are part right, yes that is where they live 4-6 working people in an apartment would be but that rent is lower there.  Amazon moving in next door was going to quadruple those prices.

Thanks for the clarification. I remember looking at her district back when we were discussing it and its an odd shaped one but they all are and I have no clue when it comes to the geography of the five boroughs. I'm as directionally challenged as they come and without a landmark to guide me or being somewhere for 6 months, I'm lost. Regardless, AOC was looking out for her constituents and seems to have made the right call. I also saw that she was overwhelmingly re-elected so she must be doing something right. Speaking of which, haven't heard much about how great a threat "The Squad" is of late. Odd.

I don't know that they are a threat but I do wonder their utility.  Did she campaign for her colleagues in NY?  Have they moved any legislation?  Are they building an important movement?  These are semi-rhetorical.  I think the answers to these questions are not positive, but someone can correct me. 

I don't have an issue with AOC being ultra-progressive if that reps her district.  What I don't like is her being a national figure if she is not representative of the country at large.  I don't think it helps.  

The Squad and their progressivism moved the needle in Brandon's legislative accomplishments. Not to their liking or far enough, I'm sure, for them, but there's no denying that they got some version of the things they wanted, particularly in the infrastructure bill with climate/environment. Tax policy also comes to mind as well as budget priorities. And my guess is, is that more "young" people identify more closely with the ideals espoused by The Squad than by the POOTWH'ers and the repub party at large. So, in a way, they're building a movement. Of how much import it will be remains to be seen. A record number of women being elected to governorships can only help.

So AOC did do right by her area.  Like I mentioned it's right next door to where Amazon was going to build.  That would and was going to make rent and property 4x what it was worth.

It was literally happening the day they announced NY as the destination.  There were bidding wars and a bunch of property selling for tons of money.  What I found great about that was from all that greed someone got left holding the bag with a property the bought for wat over asking and nothing being built.

AOC here in NY has brought out more younger voters whom do see the environment as a big reason to worry and have legislation passed.  She sponsored a bill or two.

She is also very keen on what bigger business do and how they effect the people in here area.  Think of her as the rent protected tenant and she is up against the mean and greedy property owner.  She is a David going against Goliaths.

Lets see how much more she can get done as I don't agree w everything she does but she has grown on me.  She also has never met a microphone she didn't like.

Halifax2TheMax

Maybe she can do what the boys couldn't?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez calls for Ticketmaster-Live Nation 'monopoly' to be broken up in response to Taylor Swift pre-sale controversy

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez accused Ticketmaster of monopolizing the ticket sales industry on Tuesday after the company's site crashed as Taylor Swift fans attempted to buy pre-sale tickets to the singer's upcoming "Eras" tour.

Ocasio-Cortez took the opportunity to voice longstanding concern about the 2010 merger of Ticketmaster, the ticket sales and distribution company, and Live Nation, the events promoter and venue operator, into Live Nation Entertainment.

"Daily reminder that Ticketmaster is a monopoly, it's merger with LiveNation should never have been approved, and they need to be reigned in. Break them up," the Democratic congresswoman from New York tweeted.

Ticketmaster announced on Tuesday that it had seen "historically unprecedented demand" for tickets to Swift's shows as "millions" of fans flooded the site. 

Congress previously urged the Biden administration to probe the "monopoly." In April of 2021, Democratic Reps. Bill Pascrell Jr. of New Jersey, Frank Pallone Jr. of New Jersey, Jerry Nadler of New York, Jan Schakowsky of Illinois, and David Cicilline of Rhode Island sent a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland and Rebecca Slaughter, the acting chair of the Federal Trade Commission, asking them to revisit the merger, according to Variety.

"We write in support of strong antitrust enforcement by the Biden Administration, including the live event ticket sales marketplace," the letter begins. "The evidence is overwhelming that the 2010 merger between the world's largest concert promoter, Live Nation, and the biggest ticket provider, Ticketmaster, has strangled competition in live entertainment ticketing and harmed consumers and must be revisited."

White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain also chimed in on Tuesday, noting there were no site crashes when the administration's student loan forgiveness application launched.

"Over my years in the public and private sectors, I've had people tell me: If only the government could work like business. Well, the team at @USEdgov and @USDS built a Student Loan Forgiveness portal that processed 8 MILLION applications in the first 30 hours without a crash," Klain tweeted.

Twitter users poked fun at the website crash. Social media influencer Ellie Schnitt tweeted, "When Taylor Swift wrote 'the great war' she was actually preparing us for the Battle of Ticketmaster." 

Due to the "historically unprecedented demand" and difficulties with the website, Ticketmaster released a statement saying those who have already purchased tickets are good to go and those who are still waiting in the queue should "hang tight." The Capitol One onsale has been rescheduled for Wednesday, November 16 at 2:00 pm, local venue time.

—Ticketmaster (@Ticketmaster)November 15, 2022

"It's me. Hi. I'm the problem it's me." — Taylor Swift, but also Ticketmaster after its site crashed.

mickeyrat

https://apnews.com/article/business-economy-strikes-climate-and-environment-government-politics-92ea7632a29f807ccc0e2658c50d731e

 

Economy Strikes Climate and environment Government and politics

EXPLAINER: Rail strike would have wide impact on US economy

By JOSH FUNK

Today

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — American consumers and nearly every industry will be affected if freight trains grind to a halt next month.

One of the biggest rail unions rejected its deal Monday, joining three others that have failed to approve contracts over concerns about demanding schedules and the lack of paid sick time. That raises the risk of a strike, which could start as soon as Dec. 5.

It wouldn’t take long for the effects of a rail strike to trickle through the economy. Many businesses only have a few days’ worth of raw materials and space for finished goods. Makers of food, fuel, cars and chemicals would all feel the squeeze, as would their customers.

That's not to mention the commuters who would be left stranded because many passenger railroads use tracks owned by the freight railroads.

The stakes are so high for the economy that Congress is expected to intervene and impose contract terms on railroad workers. The last time US railroads went on strike was in 1992. That strike lasted two days before Congress intervened. An extended rail shutdown has not happened for a century, partly because a law passed in 1926 that governs rail negotiations made it much harder for workers to strike.

Here are some of the expected impacts of a rail strike:

---

BUSINESS

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$2 BILLION A DAY

Railroads haul about 40% of the nation's freight each year. The railroads estimated that a rail strike would cost the economy $2 billion a day in a report issued earlier this fall. Another recent report put together by a chemical industry trade group projected that if a strike drags on for a month some 700,000 jobs would be lost as manufacturers who rely on railroads shut down, prices of nearly everything would increase even more and the economy could be thrust into a recession.

And although some businesses would try to shift shipments over to trucks, there aren't nearly enough of them available. The Association of American Railroads trade group estimated that 467,000 additional trucks a day would be needed to handle everything railroads deliver.

CHEMICALS RUN DRY

Chemical manufacturers and refineries will be some of the first businesses affected, because railroads will stop shipping hazardous chemicals about a week before the strike deadline to ensure that no tank cars filled with dangerous liquids wind up stranded.

Jeff Sloan with the American Chemistry Council trade group said chemical plants could be close to shutting down by the time a rail strike actually begins because of that.

That means the chlorine that water treatment plants rely on to purify water, which they might only have about a week's supply of on hand, would become hard to get. It would be hard for manufacturers to make anything out of plastic without the chemicals that are part of the formula. Consumers will also pay more for gasoline if refineries shut down either because they can't get the ingredients they need to make fuel or because railroads aren't available to haul away byproducts like sulfur.

Chemical plants also produce carbon dioxide as a byproduct, so the supply of carbon dioxide that beverage makers use to carbonate soda and beer would also be restricted, even though the gas typically moves via pipelines.

PASSENGER PROBLEMS

Roughly half of all commuter rail systems rely at least in part on tracks that are owned by freight railroads, and nearly all of Amtrak’s long-distance trains run over the freight network.

Back in September, Amtrak cancelled all of its long-distance trains days ahead of the strike deadline to ensure passengers wouldn’t be left stranded in remote parts of the country while still en route to their destination.

And major commuter rail services in Chicago, Minneapolis, Maryland and Washington state all warned then that some of their operations would be suspended in the event of a rail strike.

FOOD FEARS

It would take about a week for customers to notice shortages of things like cereal, peanut butter and beer at the grocery store, said Tom Madrecki, vice president of supply chain for the Consumer Brands Association.

About 30% of all packaged food in the U.S. is moved by rail, he said. That percentage is much higher for denser, heavier items like cans of soup.

Some products, like cereal, cooking oils and beer, have entire operations built around rail deliveries of raw ingredients like grain, barley and peanuts, along with shipments of finished products.

Those companies typically keep only two to four days’ worth of raw ingredients on hand because it’s expensive to store them, Madrecki said, and grocers also keep a limited supply of products on hand.

Madrecki said big food companies don't like to discuss the threat of a rail strike because of worries about product shortages can lead to panic buying.

HUNGRY HERDS

Any disruption in rail service could threaten the health of chickens and pigs, which depend on trains to deliver their feed, and contribute to higher meat prices.

“Our members rely on about 27 million bushels of corn and 11 million bushels of soybean meal every week to feed their chickens. Much of that is moved by rail,” said Tom Super, a spokesman for the National Chicken Council, a trade group for the industry raising chickens for meat.

The National Grain and Feed Association said a rail strike now would hit pork and chicken producers in the southern U.S. hardest, because their local supply of corn and soybeans from this year’s harvest is likely exhausted and they’d have to ship feed by truck, dramatically increasing costs.

“They only have so much storage. They can’t go without rail service for too long before they’d have to shut down the feed mills and they run into problems,” said Max Fisher, the NGFA's chief economist.

RETAIL RISKS

Jess Dankert, the vice president for supply chain at the Retail Industry Leaders Association, said retailers’ inventory is largely in place for the holidays. But the industry is developing contingency plans.

“We don’t see, you know, canceling Christmas and that kind of narrative,” Dankert said. “But I think we will see the generalized disruption of really anything that moves by rail.”

David Garfield, a managing director with the consulting firm AlixPartners, said a rail strike could still impact holiday items shipped to stores later in December, and would definitely hamper stocking of next season’s goods.

Retailers are also concerned about online orders. Shippers like FedEx and UPS use rail cars that hold roughly 2,000 packages in each car.

AUTOMOBILE ANGST

Drivers are already paying record prices and often waiting months for new vehicles because of the production problems in the auto industry related to the shortage of computer chips in recent years.

That would only get worse if there is a rail strike, because roughly 75% of all new vehicles begin their journey from factories to dealerships on the railroad. Trains deliver some 2,000 carloads a day filled with vehicles.

And automakers may have a hard time keeping their plants running during a strike because some larger parts and raw materials are transported by rail.

___

Associated Press Writers David Pitt in Des Moines, Iowa, and Dee-Ann Durbin in Detroit contributed to this report.

mrussel1

Oil prices continue to soften, down to $80 a barrel.  Surprisingly, OPEC+ considering raising production by half million per day.  

There are so many moving parts here, it's difficult to understand.  Over the last few weeks:

- Biden gained domestic strength by blunting the red wave 
- The G7 is set to cap Russian crude prices, potentially removing their oil from the market
- Biden admin told a federal court that MSB has sovereign immunity from prosecution for the Khashoggi killing
- Winter is coming, meaning higher demand

Strangely, after they announced the 2MM per day production cut, prices have moved down.  Biden sought to blunt it by releasing more strategic reserve and it appears to have worked to some degree.  

Hard to say where prices will be in six months though.  

tempo_n_groove

mrussel1 said:

Oil prices continue to soften, down to $80 a barrel.  Surprisingly, OPEC+ considering raising production by half million per day.  

There are so many moving parts here, it's difficult to understand.  Over the last few weeks:

- Biden gained domestic strength by blunting the red wave 
- The G7 is set to cap Russian crude prices, potentially removing their oil from the market
- Biden admin told a federal court that MSB has sovereign immunity from prosecution for the Khashoggi killing
- Winter is coming, meaning higher demand

Strangely, after they announced the 2MM per day production cut, prices have moved down.  Biden sought to blunt it by releasing more strategic reserve and it appears to have worked to some degree.  

Hard to say where prices will be in six months though.  

As long as Russia keeps Saber rattling prices will be on the higher side.

mrussel1

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

Oil prices continue to soften, down to $80 a barrel.  Surprisingly, OPEC+ considering raising production by half million per day.  

There are so many moving parts here, it's difficult to understand.  Over the last few weeks:

- Biden gained domestic strength by blunting the red wave 
- The G7 is set to cap Russian crude prices, potentially removing their oil from the market
- Biden admin told a federal court that MSB has sovereign immunity from prosecution for the Khashoggi killing
- Winter is coming, meaning higher demand

Strangely, after they announced the 2MM per day production cut, prices have moved down.  Biden sought to blunt it by releasing more strategic reserve and it appears to have worked to some degree.  

Hard to say where prices will be in six months though.  

As long as Russia keeps Saber rattling prices will be on the higher side.

I'm not sure.  That's the question here.  The G7 will be capping the prices on Russian oil.  It's interesting that Opec is looking to increase production, which means there may be a split growing between SA and Russia.  The thought was that OPEC was protecting Russia when they cut production by 2 MM per day a few months ago, but they always said no, they were just getting ready for the recession.  The other wild card is UAE.  They are a major producer, up to 5 MM per day, and they are pushing to maximize production before the recession.  

tempo_n_groove

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

Oil prices continue to soften, down to $80 a barrel.  Surprisingly, OPEC+ considering raising production by half million per day.  

There are so many moving parts here, it's difficult to understand.  Over the last few weeks:

- Biden gained domestic strength by blunting the red wave 
- The G7 is set to cap Russian crude prices, potentially removing their oil from the market
- Biden admin told a federal court that MSB has sovereign immunity from prosecution for the Khashoggi killing
- Winter is coming, meaning higher demand

Strangely, after they announced the 2MM per day production cut, prices have moved down.  Biden sought to blunt it by releasing more strategic reserve and it appears to have worked to some degree.  

Hard to say where prices will be in six months though.  

As long as Russia keeps Saber rattling prices will be on the higher side.

I'm not sure.  That's the question here.  The G7 will be capping the prices on Russian oil.  It's interesting that Opec is looking to increase production, which means there may be a split growing between SA and Russia.  The thought was that OPEC was protecting Russia when they cut production by 2 MM per day a few months ago, but they always said no, they were just getting ready for the recession.  The other wild card is UAE.  They are a major producer, up to 5 MM per day, and they are pushing to maximize production before the recession.  

You have a good point. 

UAE is part of OPEC though.  They do what they want which is just wild to me.  

Opec increasing productivity would cancel out Russias oil so I would expect Russia to lower their prices to mess with everyone else which could be good.  Russia, during the pandemic flooded oil on the market to sell and crashed the prices.  Maybe they can do that again?  It disrupts the world for a bit and doesn't do them any favors but they do what they want it seems like also.

I do want to see lower prices soon as winters coming.

mrussel1

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

Oil prices continue to soften, down to $80 a barrel.  Surprisingly, OPEC+ considering raising production by half million per day.  

There are so many moving parts here, it's difficult to understand.  Over the last few weeks:

- Biden gained domestic strength by blunting the red wave 
- The G7 is set to cap Russian crude prices, potentially removing their oil from the market
- Biden admin told a federal court that MSB has sovereign immunity from prosecution for the Khashoggi killing
- Winter is coming, meaning higher demand

Strangely, after they announced the 2MM per day production cut, prices have moved down.  Biden sought to blunt it by releasing more strategic reserve and it appears to have worked to some degree.  

Hard to say where prices will be in six months though.  

As long as Russia keeps Saber rattling prices will be on the higher side.

I'm not sure.  That's the question here.  The G7 will be capping the prices on Russian oil.  It's interesting that Opec is looking to increase production, which means there may be a split growing between SA and Russia.  The thought was that OPEC was protecting Russia when they cut production by 2 MM per day a few months ago, but they always said no, they were just getting ready for the recession.  The other wild card is UAE.  They are a major producer, up to 5 MM per day, and they are pushing to maximize production before the recession.  

You have a good point. 

UAE is part of OPEC though.  They do what they want which is just wild to me.  

Opec increasing productivity would cancel out Russias oil so I would expect Russia to lower their prices to mess with everyone else which could be good.  Russia, during the pandemic flooded oil on the market to sell and crashed the prices.  Maybe they can do that again?  It disrupts the world for a bit and doesn't do them any favors but they do what they want it seems like also.

I do want to see lower prices soon as winters coming.

My point about UAE is that they are pressuring the other OPEC nations to increase production, offsetting Russian needs. 

The other big question is what will the G7 set as the max Russian price? Some say $60 or even a little higher.  Ukraine and Poland want it to be $20, just over production price.  In theory that would cause Russia to shut down production,  which might be counter productive. 

tempo_n_groove

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

Oil prices continue to soften, down to $80 a barrel.  Surprisingly, OPEC+ considering raising production by half million per day.  

There are so many moving parts here, it's difficult to understand.  Over the last few weeks:

- Biden gained domestic strength by blunting the red wave 
- The G7 is set to cap Russian crude prices, potentially removing their oil from the market
- Biden admin told a federal court that MSB has sovereign immunity from prosecution for the Khashoggi killing
- Winter is coming, meaning higher demand

Strangely, after they announced the 2MM per day production cut, prices have moved down.  Biden sought to blunt it by releasing more strategic reserve and it appears to have worked to some degree.  

Hard to say where prices will be in six months though.  

As long as Russia keeps Saber rattling prices will be on the higher side.

I'm not sure.  That's the question here.  The G7 will be capping the prices on Russian oil.  It's interesting that Opec is looking to increase production, which means there may be a split growing between SA and Russia.  The thought was that OPEC was protecting Russia when they cut production by 2 MM per day a few months ago, but they always said no, they were just getting ready for the recession.  The other wild card is UAE.  They are a major producer, up to 5 MM per day, and they are pushing to maximize production before the recession.  

You have a good point. 

UAE is part of OPEC though.  They do what they want which is just wild to me.  

Opec increasing productivity would cancel out Russias oil so I would expect Russia to lower their prices to mess with everyone else which could be good.  Russia, during the pandemic flooded oil on the market to sell and crashed the prices.  Maybe they can do that again?  It disrupts the world for a bit and doesn't do them any favors but they do what they want it seems like also.

I do want to see lower prices soon as winters coming.

My point about UAE is that they are pressuring the other OPEC nations to increase production, offsetting Russian needs. 

The other big question is what will the G7 set as the max Russian price? Some say $60 or even a little higher.  Ukraine and Poland want it to be $20, just over production price.  In theory that would cause Russia to shut down production,  which might be counter productive. 

Russia would undercut the whole thing and sell cheaper.  They've done it before.

mickeyrat

means dick here. we are at reduced refining capacity

mrussel1

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

Oil prices continue to soften, down to $80 a barrel.  Surprisingly, OPEC+ considering raising production by half million per day.  

There are so many moving parts here, it's difficult to understand.  Over the last few weeks:

- Biden gained domestic strength by blunting the red wave 
- The G7 is set to cap Russian crude prices, potentially removing their oil from the market
- Biden admin told a federal court that MSB has sovereign immunity from prosecution for the Khashoggi killing
- Winter is coming, meaning higher demand

Strangely, after they announced the 2MM per day production cut, prices have moved down.  Biden sought to blunt it by releasing more strategic reserve and it appears to have worked to some degree.  

Hard to say where prices will be in six months though.  

As long as Russia keeps Saber rattling prices will be on the higher side.

I'm not sure.  That's the question here.  The G7 will be capping the prices on Russian oil.  It's interesting that Opec is looking to increase production, which means there may be a split growing between SA and Russia.  The thought was that OPEC was protecting Russia when they cut production by 2 MM per day a few months ago, but they always said no, they were just getting ready for the recession.  The other wild card is UAE.  They are a major producer, up to 5 MM per day, and they are pushing to maximize production before the recession.  

You have a good point. 

UAE is part of OPEC though.  They do what they want which is just wild to me.  

Opec increasing productivity would cancel out Russias oil so I would expect Russia to lower their prices to mess with everyone else which could be good.  Russia, during the pandemic flooded oil on the market to sell and crashed the prices.  Maybe they can do that again?  It disrupts the world for a bit and doesn't do them any favors but they do what they want it seems like also.

I do want to see lower prices soon as winters coming.

My point about UAE is that they are pressuring the other OPEC nations to increase production, offsetting Russian needs. 

The other big question is what will the G7 set as the max Russian price? Some say $60 or even a little higher.  Ukraine and Poland want it to be $20, just over production price.  In theory that would cause Russia to shut down production,  which might be counter productive. 

Russia would undercut the whole thing and sell cheaper.  They've done it before.

Russia is trying to keep prices up to fondant their war. If they flooded the market with oil before the mark the G7 is setting,  then I think the west will celebrate.  I don't think that's happening. 

tempo_n_groove

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

Oil prices continue to soften, down to $80 a barrel.  Surprisingly, OPEC+ considering raising production by half million per day.  

There are so many moving parts here, it's difficult to understand.  Over the last few weeks:

- Biden gained domestic strength by blunting the red wave 
- The G7 is set to cap Russian crude prices, potentially removing their oil from the market
- Biden admin told a federal court that MSB has sovereign immunity from prosecution for the Khashoggi killing
- Winter is coming, meaning higher demand

Strangely, after they announced the 2MM per day production cut, prices have moved down.  Biden sought to blunt it by releasing more strategic reserve and it appears to have worked to some degree.  

Hard to say where prices will be in six months though.  

As long as Russia keeps Saber rattling prices will be on the higher side.

I'm not sure.  That's the question here.  The G7 will be capping the prices on Russian oil.  It's interesting that Opec is looking to increase production, which means there may be a split growing between SA and Russia.  The thought was that OPEC was protecting Russia when they cut production by 2 MM per day a few months ago, but they always said no, they were just getting ready for the recession.  The other wild card is UAE.  They are a major producer, up to 5 MM per day, and they are pushing to maximize production before the recession.  

You have a good point. 

UAE is part of OPEC though.  They do what they want which is just wild to me.  

Opec increasing productivity would cancel out Russias oil so I would expect Russia to lower their prices to mess with everyone else which could be good.  Russia, during the pandemic flooded oil on the market to sell and crashed the prices.  Maybe they can do that again?  It disrupts the world for a bit and doesn't do them any favors but they do what they want it seems like also.

I do want to see lower prices soon as winters coming.

My point about UAE is that they are pressuring the other OPEC nations to increase production, offsetting Russian needs. 

The other big question is what will the G7 set as the max Russian price? Some say $60 or even a little higher.  Ukraine and Poland want it to be $20, just over production price.  In theory that would cause Russia to shut down production,  which might be counter productive. 

Russia would undercut the whole thing and sell cheaper.  They've done it before.

Russia is trying to keep prices up to fondant their war. If they flooded the market with oil before the mark the G7 is setting,  then I think the west will celebrate.  I don't think that's happening. 

Dropping the price would make people want to buy from them, again, they did it before.

tempo_n_groove

mickeyrat said:

means dick here. we are at reduced refining capacity

Aren't we the biggest refiners of oil in the world?

mrussel1

mickeyrat said:

means dick here. we are at reduced refining capacity

Until 2023 when we are predicted to produce more oil than we ever have, 12.4 MM b/d.

Halifax2TheMax

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

tempo_n_groove said:

mrussel1 said:

Oil prices continue to soften, down to $80 a barrel.  Surprisingly, OPEC+ considering raising production by half million per day.  

There are so many moving parts here, it's difficult to understand.  Over the last few weeks:

- Biden gained domestic strength by blunting the red wave 
- The G7 is set to cap Russian crude prices, potentially removing their oil from the market
- Biden admin told a federal court that MSB has sovereign immunity from prosecution for the Khashoggi killing
- Winter is coming, meaning higher demand

Strangely, after they announced the 2MM per day production cut, prices have moved down.  Biden sought to blunt it by releasing more strategic reserve and it appears to have worked to some degree.  

Hard to say where prices will be in six months though.  

As long as Russia keeps Saber rattling prices will be on the higher side.

I'm not sure.  That's the question here.  The G7 will be capping the prices on Russian oil.  It's interesting that Opec is looking to increase production, which means there may be a split growing between SA and Russia.  The thought was that OPEC was protecting Russia when they cut production by 2 MM per day a few months ago, but they always said no, they were just getting ready for the recession.  The other wild card is UAE.  They are a major producer, up to 5 MM per day, and they are pushing to maximize production before the recession.  

You have a good point. 

UAE is part of OPEC though.  They do what they want which is just wild to me.  

Opec increasing productivity would cancel out Russias oil so I would expect Russia to lower their prices to mess with everyone else which could be good.  Russia, during the pandemic flooded oil on the market to sell and crashed the prices.  Maybe they can do that again?  It disrupts the world for a bit and doesn't do them any favors but they do what they want it seems like also.

I do want to see lower prices soon as winters coming.

My point about UAE is that they are pressuring the other OPEC nations to increase production, offsetting Russian needs. 

The other big question is what will the G7 set as the max Russian price? Some say $60 or even a little higher.  Ukraine and Poland want it to be $20, just over production price.  In theory that would cause Russia to shut down production,  which might be counter productive. 

Russia would undercut the whole thing and sell cheaper.  They've done it before.

Russia is trying to keep prices up to fondant their war. If they flooded the market with oil before the mark the G7 is setting,  then I think the west will celebrate.  I don't think that's happening. 

China would buy a shit ton more at lower prices. They’d make it up in volume.

mickeyrat

mrussel1 said:

mickeyrat said:

means dick here. we are at reduced refining capacity

Until 2023 when we are predicted to produce more oil than we ever have, 12.4 MM b/d.

means shit how much you produce if you're refining capacity is limited.

deisel shortage dontcha know. all due to refining....

mickeyrat

mickeyrat said:

mrussel1 said:

mickeyrat said:

means dick here. we are at reduced refining capacity

Until 2023 when we are predicted to produce more oil than we ever have, 12.4 MM b/d.

means shit how much you produce if you're refining capacity is limited.

deisel shortage dontcha know. all due to refining....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/11/15/heres-why-the-us-has-lost-refining-capacity/

mrussel1

mickeyrat said:

mickeyrat said:

mrussel1 said:

mickeyrat said:

means dick here. we are at reduced refining capacity

Until 2023 when we are predicted to produce more oil than we ever have, 12.4 MM b/d.

means shit how much you produce if you're refining capacity is limited.

deisel shortage dontcha know. all due to refining....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/11/15/heres-why-the-us-has-lost-refining-capacity/

Yes refining was low in 2022, but that's because the shut downs coming out of COVID could not ramp up as quickly as the pumping capacity.  So what we had in 2022 was an unsustainably large crack spread occurring.  That is expected to moderate in early 23 as US refineries finish their seasonal maintenance and refineries around the world ramp up.  Here is a recent EIA article on it.  

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php#:~:text=We forecast U.S. distillate refinery,with $1.34/gal in 2022.

Halifax2TheMax

U.S. gas prices plunge toward $3 a gallon as demand drops worldwide

The price of gas is back to where it was before Russia invaded Ukraine. It is putting real money back in Americans’ wallets.

The cost of gasoline is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of drivers, defying earlier projections and offering an unexpected gift for the holidays.

Filling up is now as cheap as it was in February, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine touched off a global energy crisis. AAA reported the average nationwide price of a gallon of regular Wednesday was $3.50, and gas price tracking company GasBuddy projected it could drop below $3 by Christmas. All of that relief likely helped drive robust shopping over Thanksgiving weekend.

“People are realizing that they might be back to spending $50 to fill their tank instead of $80,” said Emma Rasiel, a professor of economics at Duke University. “It is the main signal consumers notice on inflation. It is the one thing they are likely to track how much it has gone up or down, because every week they need to fill up their car.”

But Rasiel cautioned cheaper gas can also give consumers the wrong idea. Prices of other goods and services are much less volatile, and there is no indication that this moment of more affordable fuel is pushing the cost of other things down.

Even as the plunge in prices at the pump helps fuel a national holiday shopping spree, it is a reflection of the financial strain consumers and businesses are confronting worldwide. Prices are going down because demand for oil and gas is falling as countries brace for recession, covid-19 outbreaks in China threaten major financial disruption, and drivers cut back on gas-guzzling as they try to save money to cover skyrocketing mortgage payments and stock market losses.

Earlier worries that sanctions on Russian oil would create a shortage in supply and send prices soaring toward the end of the year have, for now at least, given way to ailing economies and jittery financial markets.

“We’re heading into serious recession in Europe and further economic slowdown in the U.S. as people struggle with high interest rates and worry about their personal wealth and savings,” said Ben Cahill, an energy security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Add it all up and it creates a bleak picture for oil demand. Prices are reflecting that.”

Also helping keep prices low at the moment are some key United States oil refineries, which returned to churning out gasoline after months of being out of commission for maintenance and repairs

But just as big a factor is the current turmoil in China. As its leaders signal new covid lockdowns are imminent, touching off protests throughout the country, the expected economic fallout has turned oil traders bearish.

Inside the Biden team’s fixation on gas prices

China alone accounted for 16 percent of global oil demand last year, according to the research firm Capital Economics, which projects its purchase of oil will drop by 1 million barrels per day in December as covid infections spread. The effect of such a drop on global oil markets is considerable, reducing the price of Brent crude by as much as $10 a barrel, or more than 10 percent.

“With COVID cases soaring to record highs in China and the threat of widespread lockdowns there increasing, the key question is how much demand could fall, freeing up supply for the rest of the world,” Edward Gardner, a commodities economist at the firm, wrote in a research note.

While the high cost of gasoline over much of the past year was a major factor in the crushing inflation that hit the United States and other countries, the current dip in fuel costs is doing little to return economic stability. Manufacturers that rely on large amounts of fuel need to see sustained low prices for a period of months before they adjust the costs of the products they sell, analysts say. Drivers in some parts of the country are benefiting significantly more than in others. Californians are still paying an average of almost $5 for a gallon of regular.

“This is a pretty delicately held-together price decline,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noting that any number of geopolitical or economic events could send prices rebounding.

There are other big factors making the price outlook murky. The United States and Europe are in the process of negotiating a price cap on Russian oil, to take effect Monday. The plan is to allow Russian oil to continue to flow into global markets, but at prices that limit profits the Kremlin can use to sustain its war machine.

Such a price cap has never before been imposed on a major oil-producing nation, and it threatens to trigger further instability. If the cap is set very low, as some European nations are advocating, Moscow could retaliate by cutting off its supply, creating a surge in prices globally.

Another wild card is the OPEC Plus consortium of oil-producing nations, which meets next week to consider how much oil its members should continue to ship in the coming months. The group could decide to cut its output to drive prices up.

“The OPEC meeting could be the skunk at the picnic,” said Andrew Gross, a spokesman for AAA. “Trying to guess what they are going to do is tricky.”

How Joe Manchin’s change of heart could revive the U.S. solar industry

Those are the kind of things that worry John Catsimatidis, who owns hundreds of gas stations and a refinery. But not because they could affect his fuel business. When the businessman talks about gas prices, he is more focused on what they could ultimately mean for another business in his multibillion-dollar empire, the one focused on developing real estate.

Spiraling borrowing costs have made that enterprise much more challenging. A six-month stretch of $3 gas, he said, could help ease inflation and signal that it’s safe for the Federal Reserve to reverse its recent rate hikes.

“If we get the price down and it stays there, we could fix the problem of inflation and the Fed can stop raising interest rates and putting everybody out of business,” Catsimatidis said.

One thing that is clear is that there is very little leaders in Washington can do to keep gas prices down. They are at the mercy of global markets.

The Biden administration is probably pressuring Saudi Arabia, which dominates OPEC Plus, not to cut its output. But the administration’s lack of influence over such things was clear the last time OPEC Plus met, in October, when the group snubbed Washington’s request that it boost output, instead cutting it by 2 million barrels per day.

The administration last week eased sanctions on Venezuela as part of a bid to get oil flowing from that country again. But it will be many months before Venezuelan petroleum is shipped, and only marginal amounts will be available initially.

Most drivers are paying little attention to the broader dynamics of the global oil market. But even they are taking a cautious approach, despite maybe splurging on holiday gifts.

Data collected by AAA suggests they are sticking with the conservation-minded driving habits embraced when gas soared past $5 a gallon, lumping more errands into single car trips, driving at slower speeds, only partially filling their gas tanks. Prices may have plunged, but drivers are not taking their foot off the brake.

That much is also clear in the outlook of consumers, which often improves when gas prices drop. But the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index suggests this current stretch of cheaper gas is getting overshadowed by other financial challenges straining Americans. Even as gas prices dropped, the national survey shows, consumer anxiety grew in November.

“Even though prices of gas have come down, prices of other things are still high,” said Joanne Hsu, who directs the university’s surveys of consumers. “There is a feeling of tremendous uncertainty.”

The cost of gas is dropping. Here's why -- and how long the lower prices might last. - The Washington Post

Lerxst1992

Heating oil was near six bucks a gallon recently, often overlooked by DC and the media. Gas is a cheap luxury comparatively.