Housing Prices, Housing problems

Go Beavers

Halifax2TheMax said:

Institutional investors, private equity and foreign wealth funds, not to mention AB&B and VRBO. But sure, blame it all on the “other” and defund the police. Oh, and that pesky pandemic that shook up the office world.

But somehow the housing costs continue to rise in these disaster zones. Portland has been burnt to the ground, yet housing prices continue to be nuts. 

Go Beavers

OnWis97 said:

bbiggs said:

Link…

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/top-10-inbound-vs-top-10-outbound-us-states-in-2021-how-do-they-compare-on-a-variety-of-economic-tax-business-climate-and-political-measures/

The outbound states tend to be blue and have cold weather while the inbound tend to be red and have less cold weather. Even when the weather is against the grain (Idaho, Utah - Hawaii), it's red states that are gaining and pretty much blue that are losing (Louisiana the notable exception, probably for economic reasons). I think it's a reflection of where companies are moving (red states tend to give them tax breaks) along with how growingingly conservative the country is becoming.

It's showing that conservative principles of low taxes (particularly low corporate taxes) and corporate-friendly laws (e.g., right-to-work) are probably more successful than liberal principles. I say this as a liberal. This might be especially true now that people are more mobile. How many people even a generation ago were going to move from Massachusetts to Nevada?  I do think that the link underplays (doesn't mention) weather, though.

Red states are either showing they have a better model or they're racing to the bottom. Probably a bit of both.

If you include the other 30 states, the red vs blue dynamic doesn’t hold up as well. 

Halifax2TheMax

Go Beavers said:

OnWis97 said:

bbiggs said:

Link…

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/top-10-inbound-vs-top-10-outbound-us-states-in-2021-how-do-they-compare-on-a-variety-of-economic-tax-business-climate-and-political-measures/

The outbound states tend to be blue and have cold weather while the inbound tend to be red and have less cold weather. Even when the weather is against the grain (Idaho, Utah - Hawaii), it's red states that are gaining and pretty much blue that are losing (Louisiana the notable exception, probably for economic reasons). I think it's a reflection of where companies are moving (red states tend to give them tax breaks) along with how growingingly conservative the country is becoming.

It's showing that conservative principles of low taxes (particularly low corporate taxes) and corporate-friendly laws (e.g., right-to-work) are probably more successful than liberal principles. I say this as a liberal. This might be especially true now that people are more mobile. How many people even a generation ago were going to move from Massachusetts to Nevada?  I do think that the link underplays (doesn't mention) weather, though.

Red states are either showing they have a better model or they're racing to the bottom. Probably a bit of both.

If you include the other 30 states, the red vs blue dynamic doesn’t hold up as well. 

I took the 10 In/Out states and made my own "quality of life" criteria and compared them. Here were my categories:

Quality of Life Category

% without Health Insurance

% Population by Race, White

% of Children in Poverty

Return on Tax Dollars ($ back for $ paid)

Life Expectancy

Murder Rate, per 100K

Violent Crime Rate, per 100K

# of Women Who Die in Childbirth, per 100K live births

Median Income

Average SAT Scores, combined

2021 Unemployment Rate

Firearms Assault Rate per 100K Which ones, on average, do you think came out on top in every category? The In or Out states? There was only one category where the In states performed better. I guess it depends on what you believe is important to your quality of life? Here were my sources as I didn't want to spend a week on it. Sources Health Insurance Coverage of the Total Population | KFF US States by Race 2022 (worldpopulationreview.com) Child poverty statistics in the U.S. (kidscount.org) Which State Budgets Rely on the Most Federal Aid | MoneyGeek.com Life Expectancy in the US by State | TitleMax Stats of the States - Homicide Mortality (cdc.gov) Crime in the US: All 50 states ranked by murder, violent crime rates (usatoday.com) Maternal mortality in the United States - Wikipedia Median Household Income by State 2022 (worldpopulationreview.com) Average SAT Scores by State (Most Recent) (prepscholar.com) Unemployment Rates for States (bls.gov) Gun crime statistics by US state: download the data. Visualised | World news | theguardian.com

Zod

Not much different here in Canada.  Same stuff going on:

1) Immigration seems to have exceed our capacity to build, which leads to shortages.  Stuck in a catch 22, because we need more working age people paying taxes to try and keep our social programs afloat.

2) Properties are getting bought up as investments.  Not just to flip, but to generate cash flows.  Gobbled up by individuals and corporations, so percentage of homes available to people needing a primary residence reduces.

3) Low Interest Rates

4) Where I live is desirable so contant migration of people from other parts of Canada.

My house has pretty much doubled in value in 7 years.   It's insane. 

I'm worried about younger generations.  In addition to building more, I think we need to curb investment.  Reduce how many residential properties an individual can own, and ban corporate ownership all together.  Otherwise I think we shift from an ownership economy to a rental one which isn't great.

brianlux

The whole housing issues these days seems like either a reflection of the widening gap between the "haves and the have nots" or a cause of it or both.  I went through some years being semi-homeless years in the mid 90's and it was tough climbing out of that hole then.  Today, it would be difficult to the extreme.  This is evidenced by the huge rise in homelessness.  It's increasing rapidly here in the small city of Placerville, and it's growing like wildfire a little less than an hour from here in Sacramento.

Zod said:

Not much different here in Canada.  Same stuff going on:

1) Immigration seems to have exceed our capacity to build, which leads to shortages.  Stuck in a catch 22, because we need more working age people paying taxes to try and keep our social programs afloat.

2) Properties are getting bought up as investments.  Not just to flip, but to generate cash flows.  Gobbled up by individuals and corporations, so percentage of homes available to people needing a primary residence reduces.

3) Low Interest Rates

4) Where I live is desirable so contant migration of people from other parts of Canada.

My house has pretty much doubled in value in 7 years.   It's insane. 

I'm worried about younger generations.  In addition to building more, I think we need to curb investment.  Reduce how many residential properties an individual can own, and ban corporate ownership all together.  Otherwise I think we shift from an ownership economy to a rental one which isn't great.

Well said, Zod, I agree, 

And rentals too are going crazy high.  I just found out a friend of mine is paying $1600 a month for a basic two bed room apartment.  She uses one  room for her office.  But she's also in her early 70's and the chances of her owning her own home are getting slim.  With rents like that, how do you ever stop working?  It's super concerning. 

Zod

brianlux said:

The whole housing issues these days seems like either a reflection of the widening gap between the "haves and the have nots" or a cause of it or both.  I went through some years being semi-homeless years in the mid 90's and it was tough climbing out of that hole then.  Today, it would be difficult to the extreme.  This is evidenced by the huge rise in homelessness.  It's increasing rapidly here in the small city of Placerville, and it's growing like wildfire a little less than an hour from here in Sacramento.

Zod said:

Not much different here in Canada.  Same stuff going on:

1) Immigration seems to have exceed our capacity to build, which leads to shortages.  Stuck in a catch 22, because we need more working age people paying taxes to try and keep our social programs afloat.

2) Properties are getting bought up as investments.  Not just to flip, but to generate cash flows.  Gobbled up by individuals and corporations, so percentage of homes available to people needing a primary residence reduces.

3) Low Interest Rates

4) Where I live is desirable so contant migration of people from other parts of Canada.

My house has pretty much doubled in value in 7 years.   It's insane. 

I'm worried about younger generations.  In addition to building more, I think we need to curb investment.  Reduce how many residential properties an individual can own, and ban corporate ownership all together.  Otherwise I think we shift from an ownership economy to a rental one which isn't great.

Well said, Zod, I agree, 

And rentals too are going crazy high.  I just found out a friend of mine is paying $1600 a month for a basic two bed room apartment.  She uses one  room for her office.  But she's also in her early 70's and the chances of her owning her own home are getting slim.  With rents like that, how do you ever stop working?  It's super concerning. 

It depends.  If rent is 1600 a month, you probably need $3000 just to get by without too much entertainment or discretionary.  Government programs, if you worked a decent career might tap out at around $1500, so you really did need to save up while working to have some cash flow from investments.

Problem is if you didn't work full time making a decent wage then your CPP isn't going to be great, and you probably didn't save.

I think the toughest with older people was women who stayed at home to raise the kids.  It was a cultural normal decades ago, but now it's a rarity.  If the spouse of the stay at home mom didn't plan well financially and they pass.   They kind of leave the spouse up shit creek.

I guess that's the thing.  It'll be different for younger people, but if your older, into retirement, and you have no savings and didn't buy a place, you either didn't plan very well, or had a series of unfortunate circumstances occur.

The hard part is technically the seniors of today lived through better economic circumstances that the youth of today will ever see :(

tempo_n_groove

Some really good pints in here.

Silly question.  Tent cities and extreme homelessness are in Democratic run states only?  I live in NY traveled in Cali and Seattle and saw this.  Florida, Maine, Connecticut, nodda.

Texas a few years back i didn't see any of the sort either.

Meltdown99

brianlux said:

The whole housing issues these days seems like either a reflection of the widening gap between the "haves and the have nots" or a cause of it or both.  I went through some years being semi-homeless years in the mid 90's and it was tough climbing out of that hole then.  Today, it would be difficult to the extreme.  This is evidenced by the huge rise in homelessness.  It's increasing rapidly here in the small city of Placerville, and it's growing like wildfire a little less than an hour from here in Sacramento.

Zod said:

Not much different here in Canada.  Same stuff going on:

1) Immigration seems to have exceed our capacity to build, which leads to shortages.  Stuck in a catch 22, because we need more working age people paying taxes to try and keep our social programs afloat.

2) Properties are getting bought up as investments.  Not just to flip, but to generate cash flows.  Gobbled up by individuals and corporations, so percentage of homes available to people needing a primary residence reduces.

3) Low Interest Rates

4) Where I live is desirable so contant migration of people from other parts of Canada.

My house has pretty much doubled in value in 7 years.   It's insane. 

I'm worried about younger generations.  In addition to building more, I think we need to curb investment.  Reduce how many residential properties an individual can own, and ban corporate ownership all together.  Otherwise I think we shift from an ownership economy to a rental one which isn't great.

Well said, Zod, I agree, 

And rentals too are going crazy high.  I just found out a friend of mine is paying $1600 a month for a basic two bed room apartment.  She uses one  room for her office.  But she's also in her early 70's and the chances of her owning her own home are getting slim.  With rents like that, how do you ever stop working?  It's super concerning. 

In Ontario if you own a home your sitting on a nice little nest egg if you choose to sell and move to an apartment…

bought my home in 2018 and I have gained 120 grand in value…and increasing.

Its nothing for people to receive 10 bids on their house…all blind bidding.

tempo_n_groove

Meltdown99 said:

brianlux said:

The whole housing issues these days seems like either a reflection of the widening gap between the "haves and the have nots" or a cause of it or both.  I went through some years being semi-homeless years in the mid 90's and it was tough climbing out of that hole then.  Today, it would be difficult to the extreme.  This is evidenced by the huge rise in homelessness.  It's increasing rapidly here in the small city of Placerville, and it's growing like wildfire a little less than an hour from here in Sacramento.

Zod said:

Not much different here in Canada.  Same stuff going on:

1) Immigration seems to have exceed our capacity to build, which leads to shortages.  Stuck in a catch 22, because we need more working age people paying taxes to try and keep our social programs afloat.

2) Properties are getting bought up as investments.  Not just to flip, but to generate cash flows.  Gobbled up by individuals and corporations, so percentage of homes available to people needing a primary residence reduces.

3) Low Interest Rates

4) Where I live is desirable so contant migration of people from other parts of Canada.

My house has pretty much doubled in value in 7 years.   It's insane. 

I'm worried about younger generations.  In addition to building more, I think we need to curb investment.  Reduce how many residential properties an individual can own, and ban corporate ownership all together.  Otherwise I think we shift from an ownership economy to a rental one which isn't great.

Well said, Zod, I agree, 

And rentals too are going crazy high.  I just found out a friend of mine is paying $1600 a month for a basic two bed room apartment.  She uses one  room for her office.  But she's also in her early 70's and the chances of her owning her own home are getting slim.  With rents like that, how do you ever stop working?  It's super concerning. 

In Ontario if you own a home your sitting on a nice little nest egg if you choose to sell and move to an apartment…

bought my home in 2018 and I have gained 120 grand in value…and increasing.

Its nothing for people to receive 10 bids on their house…all blind bidding.

From what I understand those blind bids are companies.

It's almost like shill bidding on ebay.  It's nuts.

Poncier

tempo_n_groove said:

Some really good pints in here.

Silly question.  Tent cities and extreme homelessness are in Democratic run states only?  I live in NY traveled in Cali and Seattle and saw this.  Florida, Maine, Connecticut, nodda.

Texas a few years back i didn't see any of the sort either.

California is far and away #1 in terms of homeless population and NY is a very strong #2.
However, Florida and Texas are #3 and #4. So, while they may not have tent cities (though I think Miami area has had some at least in the past), there are plenty of homeless folks there.

Homeless Population by State 2022 (worldpopulationreview.com)

tempo_n_groove

Poncier said:

tempo_n_groove said:

Some really good pints in here.

Silly question.  Tent cities and extreme homelessness are in Democratic run states only?  I live in NY traveled in Cali and Seattle and saw this.  Florida, Maine, Connecticut, nodda.

Texas a few years back i didn't see any of the sort either.

California is far and away #1 in terms of homeless population and NY is a very strong #2.
However, Florida and Texas are #3 and #4. So, while they may not have tent cities (though I think Miami area has had some at least in the past), there are plenty of homeless folks there.

Homeless Population by State 2022 (worldpopulationreview.com)

So looking at those charts and how similar Florida, Texas and Seattle are w homelessness, if you visited those places they look nothing alike.

Texas is really spread out though so maybe seeing it would be harder where it seems like everyone is in Seattle in a tent.  Florida I was there in 2016 and don't recall seeing 1 tent.

Poncier

Yeah, I think land mass has a lot to do with it, Texas and Florida much bigger, also warmer states and the homeless are likely more spread out whereas Washington state they are heavily concentrated in Seattle.

But I do have memories of seeing tents set up at underpasses in south Florida (not tent cities, but small groups) in years past when I visited.

tempo_n_groove

Poncier said:

Yeah, I think land mass has a lot to do with it, Texas and Florida much bigger, also warmer states and the homeless are likely more spread out whereas Washington state they are heavily concentrated in Seattle.

But I do have memories of seeing tents set up at underpasses in south Florida (not tent cities, but small groups) in years past when I visited.

Small amounts of tents I can see.  They do it in Hawaii too.  Montana they follow the rivers and underpasses, same as in AZ.  If you have ever been hiking and come across one of their areas it is quite eye opening.

I guess I am asking about the eye test.  It makes sense that bigger states are spread out more.  What doesn't make sense is that Texas and Florida have a higher populations than NY but have triple the amount of homeless.

I am trying to figure out a connection that isn't red and blue state but if other opportunities are there?

Halifax2TheMax

Some states/cities criminalize homelessness, some states don’t. Take a guess which ones do and don’t.

tempo_n_groove

Halifax2TheMax said:

Some states/cities criminalize homelessness, some states don’t. Take a guess which ones do and don’t.

Thank you.  I know NY does not.

In Seattle they were going to pass a law that allowed tents in public parks but it quickly got shut down.

Halifax2TheMax

Also, some states/cities do a better job of assisting their homeless populace. There’s a “homeless” population and a “sheltered homeless population.” How they’re counted and categorized makes a difference as it relates to total numbers or the perception of the scope of the issue.

Zod

We have this issue here in Victoria, BC.   We have a constantly growing homeless population.   One because were one of the least cold places in the winter in Canada.  The other is we do have shelters and basic supports like food and what not for homeless people. It might not seem like much but it's better than a lot of other places in Canada.   It causes migration of homeless to our city. 

It's a challenge for sure.  To fix that you would need some kind of national program that addresses it evenly, rather than provinces/cities doing their own thing, and causing migration to those places that do it better.

brianlux

Great thread, lots of excellent thoughtful comments, none of the usual AMT b.s.  I know I'm sort of cheer-leading but seriously, this is good stuff! 

Meltdown99

tempo_n_groove said:

Meltdown99 said:

brianlux said:

The whole housing issues these days seems like either a reflection of the widening gap between the "haves and the have nots" or a cause of it or both.  I went through some years being semi-homeless years in the mid 90's and it was tough climbing out of that hole then.  Today, it would be difficult to the extreme.  This is evidenced by the huge rise in homelessness.  It's increasing rapidly here in the small city of Placerville, and it's growing like wildfire a little less than an hour from here in Sacramento.

Zod said:

Not much different here in Canada.  Same stuff going on:

1) Immigration seems to have exceed our capacity to build, which leads to shortages.  Stuck in a catch 22, because we need more working age people paying taxes to try and keep our social programs afloat.

2) Properties are getting bought up as investments.  Not just to flip, but to generate cash flows.  Gobbled up by individuals and corporations, so percentage of homes available to people needing a primary residence reduces.

3) Low Interest Rates

4) Where I live is desirable so contant migration of people from other parts of Canada.

My house has pretty much doubled in value in 7 years.   It's insane. 

I'm worried about younger generations.  In addition to building more, I think we need to curb investment.  Reduce how many residential properties an individual can own, and ban corporate ownership all together.  Otherwise I think we shift from an ownership economy to a rental one which isn't great.

Well said, Zod, I agree, 

And rentals too are going crazy high.  I just found out a friend of mine is paying $1600 a month for a basic two bed room apartment.  She uses one  room for her office.  But she's also in her early 70's and the chances of her owning her own home are getting slim.  With rents like that, how do you ever stop working?  It's super concerning. 

In Ontario if you own a home your sitting on a nice little nest egg if you choose to sell and move to an apartment…

bought my home in 2018 and I have gained 120 grand in value…and increasing.

Its nothing for people to receive 10 bids on their house…all blind bidding.

From what I understand those blind bids are companies.

It's almost like shill bidding on ebay.  It's nuts.

Not in most cases.  I’m sure in Toronto that may be the case sometimes, but around my area is mostly people just wanting a house to live in…I know a fellow, retired GM worker went in with a bully bid at 150 grand over…but he got the house..

mace1229

OnWis97 said:

mfc2006 said:

Saw an article over the weekend saying that the average US home price jumped up by almost 100k since 2019. We just finished some massive renovations to our house and had out realtor come by for an estimated property valuation. She said she list it for $150k+ more than we paid for it in 2017 and my jaw hit the damn floor. She said it would sell quickly with a bidding war. Our next door neighbor just sold their home (3 days after listing it) and got 100k over asking without any renovations. CRAZY.

It makes me wonder how people raising kids on like $60,000/yr can afford to live anywhere.  I see that the 2021 median HH income was about $75,000...so half of all households earn less than that. 

You can’t, not in a state where the average home is 500k+, which is becoming more and more states.
10 years ago you could easily find a house in denver for 200k, and a starting teacher salary was about 40. Now the starting salary is about 45k, but that same home will be in the 500-600 range.