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  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,155
    ledvedderman said:

    If I'm doing my math correctly, no Republican presidential candidate since at least 1996 will be voting for Trump. McCain, Romney, George W. (Safe to assume). If Dole doesn't, than we are going back to '88 because H.W. is a no as well!

    Dole supports him. Not sure how.
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  • pjalive21
    pjalive21 St. Louis, MO Posts: 2,818
    edited October 2016
    LA Times Poll just released (arguably the most accurate poll out there) has Trump up by over 2 percentage points while the MM is pushing HRC up by 11...MM like Fox and CNN after this election cycle will be dead when it come to being trusted if it isn't already

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
    Post edited by pjalive21 on
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    pjalive21 said:

    LA Times Poll just released (arguably the most accurate poll out there) has Trump up by over 2 percentage points while the MM is pushing HRC up by 11...MM like Fox and CNN after this election cycle will be dead when it come to being trusted if it isn't already

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    How are you arguing that it's the most accurate poll? It has had Trump up by as many as 7 this whole season. It's weighting are very similar to Rasmussen, although not as R heavy. This is an almost daily poll, btw.
  • pjalive21
    pjalive21 St. Louis, MO Posts: 2,818
    edited October 2016
    mrussel1 said:

    pjalive21 said:

    LA Times Poll just released (arguably the most accurate poll out there) has Trump up by over 2 percentage points while the MM is pushing HRC up by 11...MM like Fox and CNN after this election cycle will be dead when it come to being trusted if it isn't already

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    How are you arguing that it's the most accurate poll? It has had Trump up by as many as 7 this whole season. It's weighting are very similar to Rasmussen, although not as R heavy. This is an almost daily poll, btw.
    hence why I said arguably...I like the daily polls (now that's a personal preference)...lets get real until the election we aren't going to be sure of anything but I don't think the gap is 11 points...I don't have a dog in this fight but I just want to real clarity

  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    pjalive21 said:

    LA Times Poll just released (arguably the most accurate poll out there) has Trump up by over 2 percentage points while the MM is pushing HRC up by 11...MM like Fox and CNN after this election cycle will be dead when it come to being trusted if it isn't already

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    This is a bit old, but considering LA Times has had Trump ahead the whole race, it's probably generally accurate. 538 adjusts the polls to where it sees the demographics trends and you can see that they think 538 underweights Dem voters by 4 points. LA Times poll is the last one.

    image
  • CM189191
    CM189191 Posts: 6,927
    .
    pjalive21 said:

    LA Times Poll just released (arguably the most accurate poll out there) has Trump up by over 2 percentage points while the MM is pushing HRC up by 11...MM like Fox and CNN after this election cycle will be dead when it come to being trusted if it isn't already

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    correlation or causation?
    image
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,038
    The LA Times poll also states that the "who do you think will win" question is a better predictor of the eventual outcome. Hillary leads in every demographic in that category.
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  • JC29856
    JC29856 Posts: 9,617
    Halifax2TheMax said:

    The LA Times poll also states that the "who do you think will win" question is a better predictor of the eventual outcome. Hillary leads in every demographic in that category.

    The more telling data would be the follow up question: why?
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    edited October 2016
    pjalive21 said:

    mrussel1 said:

    pjalive21 said:

    LA Times Poll just released (arguably the most accurate poll out there) has Trump up by over 2 percentage points while the MM is pushing HRC up by 11...MM like Fox and CNN after this election cycle will be dead when it come to being trusted if it isn't already

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    How are you arguing that it's the most accurate poll? It has had Trump up by as many as 7 this whole season. It's weighting are very similar to Rasmussen, although not as R heavy. This is an almost daily poll, btw.
    hence why I said arguably...I like the daily polls (now that's a personal preference)...lets get real until the election we aren't going to be sure of anything but I don't think the gap is 11 points...I don't have a dog in this fight but I just want to real clarity

    I doubt the gap is 11 too. It's probably 9. Either way, that's a wipe out election if it holds. Trump's problem is that he did not earn one new vote Sunday night or yesterday. He is just feeding the beast... getting ready to launch the TV network.

    Edit - I've been saying for a while that I think his floor is about 38. I think he'll be testing the floor this week. And if the rumored tapes get released, that floor will really be under pressure.
  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478
    pjalive21 said:

    LA Times Poll just released (arguably the most accurate poll out there) has Trump up by over 2 percentage points while the MM is pushing HRC up by 11...MM like Fox and CNN after this election cycle will be dead when it come to being trusted if it isn't already

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    Someone found one of the only polls where Trump is ahead and chooses to believe that one is the most accurate. Then goes on to try and lie to us and say they don't have a dog in the fight.

    You keep living in this fantasy and when the results come in on election night you will probably claim the election was rigged. Just like the Donald told you it would play out.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    edited October 2016
    dignin said:



    pjalive21 said:

    LA Times Poll just released (arguably the most accurate poll out there) has Trump up by over 2 percentage points while the MM is pushing HRC up by 11...MM like Fox and CNN after this election cycle will be dead when it come to being trusted if it isn't already

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    Someone found one of the only polls where Trump is ahead and chooses to believe that one is the most accurate. Then goes on to try and lie to us and say they don't have a dog in the fight.

    You keep living in this fantasy and when the results come in on election night you will probably claim the election was rigged. Just like the Donald told you it would play out.
    And it's not a poll, it's a survey the leans heavily towards Trump supporters.

    When properly adjusted by 538, it's Clinton by 3: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

    C'mon people....


    (also--no reasonable people argue this is an accurate reflection of the electorate)
    Post edited by The Juggler on
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  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478
    The Juggler said:

    dignin said:



    pjalive21 said:

    LA Times Poll just released (arguably the most accurate poll out there) has Trump up by over 2 percentage points while the MM is pushing HRC up by 11...MM like Fox and CNN after this election cycle will be dead when it come to being trusted if it isn't already

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    Someone found one of the only polls where Trump is ahead and chooses to believe that one is the most accurate. Then goes on to try and lie to us and say they don't have a dog in the fight.

    You keep living in this fantasy and when the results come in on election night you will probably claim the election was rigged. Just like the Donald told you it would play out.
    And it's not a poll, it's a survey the leans heavily towards Trump supporters.

    When properly adjusted by 538, it's Clinton by 3: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

    C'mon people....


    (also--no reasonable people argue this is an accurate reflection of the electorate)
    Yeah, I know about how Nate Silver feels about the LA Times survey. He's brought it up a lot on his website and doesn't seem to be a fan of its methodology.
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,450
    saw a video by Keith Olbermann last night. Good god that dude is a blow hard. his over-outrage is exhausting. when he resorted to calling trump "Feurer Trump", he lost all credibility. he's the left wing glenn beck.
    Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall




  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    dignin said:

    The Juggler said:

    dignin said:



    pjalive21 said:

    LA Times Poll just released (arguably the most accurate poll out there) has Trump up by over 2 percentage points while the MM is pushing HRC up by 11...MM like Fox and CNN after this election cycle will be dead when it come to being trusted if it isn't already

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    Someone found one of the only polls where Trump is ahead and chooses to believe that one is the most accurate. Then goes on to try and lie to us and say they don't have a dog in the fight.

    You keep living in this fantasy and when the results come in on election night you will probably claim the election was rigged. Just like the Donald told you it would play out.
    And it's not a poll, it's a survey the leans heavily towards Trump supporters.

    When properly adjusted by 538, it's Clinton by 3: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

    C'mon people....


    (also--no reasonable people argue this is an accurate reflection of the electorate)
    Yeah, I know about how Nate Silver feels about the LA Times survey. He's brought it up a lot on his website and doesn't seem to be a fan of its methodology.
    When Drudge regularly touts it's numbers and ignores every other more reputable polling.....that should kind of tip people off. No?
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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    HughFreakingDillon said:

    saw a video by Keith Olbermann last night. Good god that dude is a blow hard. his over-outrage is exhausting. when he resorted to calling trump "Feurer Trump", he lost all credibility. he's the left wing glenn beck.

    Yeah, he lost me years ago. He is Glenn Beck on the other side. They are just feeding their base red meat, regardless of context, measurement, reasons, etc.
  • Smellyman
    Smellyman Asia Posts: 4,528
    HughFreakingDillon said:

    saw a video by Keith Olbermann last night. Good god that dude is a blow hard. his over-outrage is exhausting. when he resorted to calling trump "Feurer Trump", he lost all credibility. he's the left wing glenn beck.

    Oh he is an over the top blowhard, but uses pesky things like facts and reason.

    Beck doesn't use any of that because his audience doesn't want it.

    So While they are extreme they aren't equivalent.
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,450
    Smellyman said:

    HughFreakingDillon said:

    saw a video by Keith Olbermann last night. Good god that dude is a blow hard. his over-outrage is exhausting. when he resorted to calling trump "Feurer Trump", he lost all credibility. he's the left wing glenn beck.

    Oh he is an over the top blowhard, but uses pesky things like facts and reason.

    Beck doesn't use any of that because his audience doesn't want it.

    So While they are extreme they aren't equivalent.
    this particular video had zero facts. it was all over the top nonsense.
    Hugh Freaking Dillon is currently out of the office, returning sometime in the fall




  • unsung
    unsung I stopped by on March 7 2024. First time in many years, had to update payment info. Hope all is well. Politicians suck. Bye. Posts: 9,487
    mrussel1 said:

    HughFreakingDillon said:

    saw a video by Keith Olbermann last night. Good god that dude is a blow hard. his over-outrage is exhausting. when he resorted to calling trump "Feurer Trump", he lost all credibility. he's the left wing glenn beck.

    Yeah, he lost me years ago. He is Glenn Beck on the other side. They are just feeding their base red meat, regardless of context, measurement, reasons, etc.
    I'd have thought you'd like Glenn Beck, he prefers your candidate.

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/10/glenn-beck-electing-hillary-clinton-moral-ethical-choice/
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    unsung said:

    mrussel1 said:

    HughFreakingDillon said:

    saw a video by Keith Olbermann last night. Good god that dude is a blow hard. his over-outrage is exhausting. when he resorted to calling trump "Feurer Trump", he lost all credibility. he's the left wing glenn beck.

    Yeah, he lost me years ago. He is Glenn Beck on the other side. They are just feeding their base red meat, regardless of context, measurement, reasons, etc.
    I'd have thought you'd like Glenn Beck, he prefers your candidate.

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/10/glenn-beck-electing-hillary-clinton-moral-ethical-choice/
    That just shows you how universal and deep the contempt for Donald Trump really is.
  • rgambs
    rgambs Posts: 13,576
    unsung said:

    mrussel1 said:

    HughFreakingDillon said:

    saw a video by Keith Olbermann last night. Good god that dude is a blow hard. his over-outrage is exhausting. when he resorted to calling trump "Feurer Trump", he lost all credibility. he's the left wing glenn beck.

    Yeah, he lost me years ago. He is Glenn Beck on the other side. They are just feeding their base red meat, regardless of context, measurement, reasons, etc.
    I'd have thought you'd like Glenn Beck, he prefers your candidate.

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/10/glenn-beck-electing-hillary-clinton-moral-ethical-choice/
    By that logic you must have liked Alex Jones because he prefers Ron Paul, right?
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