Is there a science behind picking priorities?

frisbiec

jimed14 wrote:

Zod wrote:

In all honesty I'm pretty lucky. If you take Seattle out of the equation the NorthWest shows are pretty low in demand. The population on the West Coast pales in comparison with the East Coast.

My gut tells me there was less 10c available for Seattle. Something was up with that lottery. While I completely understand more people putting in for it, (it being a Friday, people wanting to make a "pilgrimage", etc) The 2009 shows were breeze to get, both of them.

And I'm not even talking about my measly Reserved #3 priority try. The hit rate of my friends winning the Seattle show as their #1 and #2 priority feels far less than that of Brooklyn.

I know, two shows vs one ... but, it just feels off.

From my experience/observations, I think the Seattle shows are limited mostly because Pearl Jam management (I can't say exactly who as this is conjecture) comps a ton of tickets to friends & family (not stating that this is right or wrong).

The_Giant_Midget

South of Seattle wrote:

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

so maybe read. and the funniest part is that if you lost out on tickets youd be feeling the same way. dont worry ill get tickets on the 27th, im still going

Well maybe if YOU read, you'd understand that he did lose out on tickets and he's not feeling the same way as you.

I'd say most of us haven't hit 100% using the old system, you did. Consider yourself fortunate.

As far a science behind picking. Use your noodle.
The more popular a show = less tickets available (i.e Brooklyn, Seattle, Philly)

The less popular a show = more tickets available. (i.e Spokane, OKC, Phoenix)

So I went popular show first with Res before GA.(1,2) and then my other show was a less popular location so I went GA then Res.(3,4)

I got my 1st choice Res. and my 2nd show I got the GA.

so answer me this because id like an explanation - so i could miss out on BK 1 as my 1st choice but someone could get BK 1 as their number 4?

TunnelThroughDenial

It's true we don't have all the data to turn it into math or science but you can avoid common pitfalls by knowing the rules and having some strategy.

For example, there is a thread about a guy who only wanted to go to one show so he put in one and only one pick for GA at that show. He didn't realize you can only win GA or Reserved so putting Reserved as priority two would have improved the odds.

I operated under the assumption that there are more reserved seats than GA and more people wanted GA so my approach was to pick reserved above GA (plus I'm too old to stand there all night).

At the end of the day the logical approach is to decide which shows you want to attend in order of preference and put in for them that way. If you have the luxury to afford traveling wherever then it's worth putting a small market high priority to make sure you win at least one. If you want to win more than one show it's foolish to waste a priority on both GA and reserved for the same show.

My two cents

South of Seattle

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

South of Seattle wrote:

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

so maybe read. and the funniest part is that if you lost out on tickets youd be feeling the same way. dont worry ill get tickets on the 27th, im still going

Well maybe if YOU read, you'd understand that he did lose out on tickets and he's not feeling the same way as you.

I'd say most of us haven't hit 100% using the old system, you did. Consider yourself fortunate.

As far a science behind picking. Use your noodle.
The more popular a show = less tickets available (i.e Brooklyn, Seattle, Philly)

The less popular a show = more tickets available. (i.e Spokane, OKC, Phoenix)

So I went popular show first with Res before GA.(1,2) and then my other show was a less popular location so I went GA then Res.(3,4)

I got my 1st choice Res. and my 2nd show I got the GA.

so answer me this because id like an explanation - so i could miss out on BK 1 as my 1st choice but someone could get BK 1 as their number 4?

Well that, I can't help you with

If it was the exact same request. Like if you had BK1 as GA and then someone else had GA as well for their 4th choice, I agree that it is messed up. But if they had reserve as pick 4 and you didn't have reserve as pick 1-3 then yeah, that makes sense.

jumbojet

Anyone can give any strategy but the real trick is to increase your odds, since it is a lottery. You do that by signing up your spouse, g/f - b/f, family member, whatever. If additional $40 is a problem, divide by 2 and get 2 digital memberships. If 10C seats is more important to you than the advantages of analog membership, that shouldnt be a worry.

One form you fill with your real wish with riskier ones, the other you fill as more of a safety one.

YOu dont worry about ending up with more tickets than you can afford to high-demand shows, you can always get rid of them, here.

For sure, this doesnt guarantee any success in high-demand places but it will increase your odds.

polaris_x

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

first of all my post wasnt really a gripe. i asked if there was a way you can figure this out and i suggested a new way. so maybe read. and the funniest part is that if you lost out on tickets youd be feeling the same way. dont worry ill get tickets on the 27th, im still going

uhhh ... i can read ... and your post was a gripe ... you asked why you should bother spending the $40 ...

also, i did lose tickets to the london show ... so, i'm still not sure you get it ...

the other issue you are facing is that there are a lot of people with multiple memberships as well as couples who both have memberships ... all these things are gonna decrease your odds ...

pjl44

JimmyV wrote:

I would say more of an art than a science. Going after shows in smaller markets and foregoing GA in favor of reserved seating will help increase your chances but nothing is guaranteed.

Not necessarily. There are people who got Worcester GA with that as their second priority. There are people who had Worcester Reserved as their first priority and got shut out.

JimmyV

pjl44 wrote:

JimmyV wrote:

I would say more of an art than a science. Going after shows in smaller markets and foregoing GA in favor of reserved seating will help increase your chances but nothing is guaranteed.

Not necessarily. There are people who got Worcester GA with that as their second priority. There are people who had Worcester Reserved as their first priority and got shut out.

True. I think many of us (myself included) overestimated the demand for Worcester GA and went for reserved instead. Now I would have gone for reserved anyway, but I may be an outlier in that. It is shocking to me that anyone scored Worcester GA with a second choice but it happened.

RE4790

Spiritual_Chaos wrote:

RE4790 wrote:

cincybearcat wrote:

There is no science unless you have all the data.

We don't, so it;s all guessing.

This x1000. I have been posting this all week, but no one seemed to get it. Make assumptions all you want about market sizes, arena sizes, locations, and Res vs. GA, but since you have no idea what the other 200k members picked or how many they were picking or in what priority or how many were even entering the lotto, it's all guess work.

Now people who won multiple shows in the NE will assume their strategy was good because of their results ( a type of confirmation bias), but it was all just luck.

You are wrong and/or naive.

Obviously your chances of winning is bigger choosing Phoenix than NY. So therefore it's not just pure luck, and you are wrong.

Sorry, forgot about this thread. You are assuming that PHX will have lower demand than NYC. Maybe no one thought they could get NYC so they all put in for PHX because they assumed it was a sure thing. Point is you don't know for sure, so any strategy is based on assumptions and is therefore a guess. Though, I would agree that your assumption about PHX was probably a good one. OKC also likely had lower demand, but that is a guess.

JimmyV wrote:

pjl44 wrote:

JimmyV wrote:

I would say more of an art than a science. Going after shows in smaller markets and foregoing GA in favor of reserved seating will help increase your chances but nothing is guaranteed.

Not necessarily. There are people who got Worcester GA with that as their second priority. There are people who had Worcester Reserved as their first priority and got shut out.

True. I think many of us (myself included) overestimated the demand for Worcester GA and went for reserved instead. Now I would have gone for reserved anyway, but I may be an outlier in that. It is shocking to me that anyone scored Worcester GA with a second choice but it happened.

There were some suggestions that if you had RES for a show as your #1 and GA for that same show as #2, they would give you GA if any remained, even if RES was available. I applaud that and think that's a smart move by the 10c, if you don't want the GA tickets trade at the venue door with another 10c'er for seats, but it goes to show you that since we didn't know everything about how the lotto worked, it was mostly luck and guesswork.