Is there a science behind picking priorities?

The_Giant_Midget

I just want to know if there is even a point putting a very popular show as your first choice and on the flip side if its even worth having more than like 3 choices?

I was 11/11 with the old system, i trusted my refreshing skills. its kind of upsetting to be willing to spend all this money for this band i love and be screwed over. cant wait for the idiots to come on here and tell me to shutup and stop venting but its just really disappointing to be so excited for something and have the rug taken from out underneath.

maybe there should be like a zip code clause and those who are closer have first crack. something needs to be done. why am i spending $40 a year?

cincybearcat

There is no science unless you have all the data.

We don't, so it;s all guessing.

RE4790

cincybearcat wrote:

There is no science unless you have all the data.

We don't, so it;s all guessing.

This x1000. I have been posting this all week, but no one seemed to get it. Make assumptions all you want about market sizes, arena sizes, locations, and Res vs. GA, but since you have no idea what the other 200k members picked or how many they were picking or in what priority or how many were even entering the lotto, it's all guess work.

Now people who won multiple shows in the NE will assume their strategy was good because of their results ( a type of confirmation bias), but it was all just luck.

Spiritual_Chaos

RE4790 wrote:

cincybearcat wrote:

There is no science unless you have all the data.

We don't, so it;s all guessing.

This x1000. I have been posting this all week, but no one seemed to get it. Make assumptions all you want about market sizes, arena sizes, locations, and Res vs. GA, but since you have no idea what the other 200k members picked or how many they were picking or in what priority or how many were even entering the lotto, it's all guess work.

Now people who won multiple shows in the NE will assume their strategy was good because of their results ( a type of confirmation bias), but it was all just luck.

You are wrong and/or naive.

Obviously your chances of winning is bigger choosing Phoenix than NY. So therefore it's not just pure luck, and you are wrong.

Spiritual_Chaos

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

I just want to know if there is even a point putting a very popular show as your first choice and on the flip side if its even worth having more than like 3 choices?

I was 11/11 with the old system, i trusted my refreshing skills. its kind of upsetting to be willing to spend all this money for this band i love and be screwed over. cant wait for the idiots to come on here and tell me to shutup and stop venting but its just really disappointing to be so excited for something and have the rug taken from out underneath.

maybe there should be like a zip code clause and those who are closer have first crack. something needs to be done. why am i spending $40 a year?

Why did ppl being shut out and not getting 11/11 with the F5-system pay 40 dollars?

JimmyV

I would say more of an art than a science. Going after shows in smaller markets and foregoing GA in favor of reserved seating will help increase your chances but nothing is guaranteed.

The_Giant_Midget

Spiritual_Chaos wrote:

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

I just want to know if there is even a point putting a very popular show as your first choice and on the flip side if its even worth having more than like 3 choices?

I was 11/11 with the old system, i trusted my refreshing skills. its kind of upsetting to be willing to spend all this money for this band i love and be screwed over. cant wait for the idiots to come on here and tell me to shutup and stop venting but its just really disappointing to be so excited for something and have the rug taken from out underneath.

maybe there should be like a zip code clause and those who are closer have first crack. something needs to be done. why am i spending $40 a year?

Why did ppl being shut out and not getting 11/11 with the F5-system pay 40 dollars?

i honestly don't know why im paying $40 anymore. the only thing i really want are tickets and i have a better shot now with ticketmaster

The_Giant_Midget

JimmyV wrote:

I would say more of an art than a science. Going after shows in smaller markets and foregoing GA in favor of reserved seating will help increase your chances but nothing is guaranteed.

well yeah i understand that, but if i live in NYC and Boston half the year im kinda screwed from seeing them in the middle of nowhere.

jimed14

Seriously, game theory is your friend here.

While exact numbers of supply and more notably, demand, are not available to you ... there's a way to go about this in a logical manner to increase your chances. That said, you'll never be guaranteed anything, however.

Zod

You aren't going to see geographical restrictions because Pearl Jam tours are small. If they did that it would work in your favor, but screw over a bunch of other fans that never have PJ play in their region (and I think those are the fans in the majority). The preference system seems like a compromise. You get a 1st pick, you're most likely going to use it to attend the show most convenient for you. Some people that's their hometown show, for others its the one that's an 8 hour drive away instead of 14.

When push comes to shove its pretty simple. There aren't enough tickets.

I think the previous poster has it right.

1) There are more reserved seats. You have a better shot if you choose reserved as #1 (mostly....)
2) Use a small market gig as a backup preference. If there weren't enough tickets for you to get your local high demand show, what are the odds there are going to be any leftover at other high demand shows.

The strategy that may have backfired on me was I wanted to see two shows. Seattle which has crazy demand and Vancouver which is moderate (and I've never seen sell out of 10c tickets). I felt that if I put Seattle first there might not be GA tickets left for Vancouver. It turned out there were and people in rounds 2 and 3 got them. Had I put Seattle Reserved #1/Vancouver GA #2, I might of had a 50/50 shot at getting Seattle tickets too.

I guess you really have to figure out which markets are the demand ones and which ones weren't.

The_Giant_Midget

Zod wrote:

You aren't going to see geographical restrictions because Pearl Jam tours are small. If they did that it would work in your favor, but screw over a bunch of other fans that never have PJ play in their region (and I think those are the fans in the majority). The preference system seems like a compromise. You get a 1st pick, you're most likely going to use it to attend the show most convenient for you. Some people that's their hometown show, for others its the one that's an 8 hour drive away instead of 14.

When push comes to shove its pretty simple. There aren't enough tickets.

I think the previous poster has it right.

1) There are more reserved seats. You have a better shot if you choose reserved as #1 (mostly....)
2) Use a small market gig as a backup preference. If there weren't enough tickets for you to get your local high demand show, what are the odds there are going to be any leftover at other high demand shows.

The strategy that may have backfired on me was I wanted to see two shows. Seattle which has crazy demand and Vancouver which is moderate (and I've never seen sell out of 10c tickets). I felt that if I put Seattle first there might not be GA tickets left for Vancouver. It turned out there were and people in rounds 2 and 3 got them. Had I put Seattle Reserved #1/Vancouver GA #2, I might of had a 50/50 shot at getting Seattle tickets too.

I guess you really have to figure out which markets are the demand ones and which ones weren't.

i totally hear you, what you're saying makes sense but its not like i can travel that far for shows. im lucky enough to be able to swing back and forth between BK and Worcester. its just awesome to see them in your hometown. i like 30 min from the barclays. now im in a race with the general public for tickets. and ive only been in the club for nearly 5 years, i cant even imagine being in it for like over 10 and getting shut out

Zod

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

i totally hear you, what you're saying makes sense but its not like i can travel that far for shows. im lucky enough to be able to swing back and forth between BK and Worcester. its just awesome to see them in your hometown. i like 30 min from the barclays. now im in a race with the general public for tickets. and ive only been in the club for nearly 5 years, i cant even imagine being in it for like over 10 and getting shut out

Yah I live right between Vancouver and Seattle so I usually fun for both. Luckily Vancouver was easy to score tickets for. It was unfortunate I missed out on Seattle :( but I'll live.

In all honesty I'm pretty lucky. If you take Seattle out of the equation the NorthWest shows are pretty low in demand. The population on the West Coast pales in comparison with the East Coast.

The demand for East Coast tickets astounds me and I feel bad for the fans out there. There's too many of 'em

Spiritual_Chaos

Zod wrote:

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

i totally hear you, what you're saying makes sense but its not like i can travel that far for shows. im lucky enough to be able to swing back and forth between BK and Worcester. its just awesome to see them in your hometown. i like 30 min from the barclays. now im in a race with the general public for tickets. and ive only been in the club for nearly 5 years, i cant even imagine being in it for like over 10 and getting shut out

Yah I live right between Vancouver and Seattle so I usually fun for both. Luckily Vancouver was easy to score tickets for. It was unfortunate I missed out on Seattle :( but I'll live.

In all honesty I'm pretty lucky. If you take Seattle out of the equation the NorthWest shows are pretty low in demand. The population on the West Coast pales in comparison with the East Coast.

The demand for East Coast tickets astounds me and I feel bad for the fans out there. There's too many of 'em

It's also cheaper/easier to get to NY for all of us Europeans. I guess that impact it a little bit too.

know1

cincybearcat wrote:

There is no science unless you have all the data.

We don't, so it;s all guessing.

This is correct.

We might think we've figured it out and then all the people run to the other side of the boat and it still tips over.

The fact is that the biggest part of it is guesswork based on what you think other people will do with their choices.

jimed14

Zod wrote:

In all honesty I'm pretty lucky. If you take Seattle out of the equation the NorthWest shows are pretty low in demand. The population on the West Coast pales in comparison with the East Coast.

My gut tells me there was less 10c available for Seattle. Something was up with that lottery. While I completely understand more people putting in for it, (it being a Friday, people wanting to make a "pilgrimage", etc) The 2009 shows were breeze to get, both of them.

And I'm not even talking about my measly Reserved #3 priority try. The hit rate of my friends winning the Seattle show as their #1 and #2 priority feels far less than that of Brooklyn.

I know, two shows vs one ... but, it just feels off.

polaris_x

not getting tickets is being part of the fan club ... that is something people need to realize ... having success previously did not make the system better for everyone ... there are no guarantees for tickets ... period. the sooner people realize this - the better i think ...

if you live in NY or Boston - and got 11/11 previously ... you should be the last person to complain as a) you've had great luck and fortune while so many did not and you have been in close proximity to probably the most amount of shows requiring you to travel less than so many people to see them ... try being a diehard from Turkey or heck Houston ...

i was one of the lucky ones who was able to always score tickets and with the new lottery i've been shutout but i recognize that as a whole - it's a lot better for the masses ... my only concern is the influence of scalpers in the fan club ...

The_Giant_Midget

polaris_x wrote:

not getting tickets is being part of the fan club ... that is something people need to realize ... having success previously did not make the system better for everyone ... there are no guarantees for tickets ... period. the sooner people realize this - the better i think ...

if you live in NY or Boston - and got 11/11 previously ... you should be the last person to complain as a) you've had great luck and fortune while so many did not and you have been in close proximity to probably the most amount of shows requiring you to travel less than so many people to see them ... try being a diehard from Turkey or heck Houston ...

i was one of the lucky ones who was able to always score tickets and with the new lottery i've been shutout but i recognize that as a whole - it's a lot better for the masses ... my only concern is the influence of scalpers in the fan club ...

not getting tickets is being part of the fan club? what does that mean? so because i got tickets to shows in 2010 im not allowed to get them in 2013? thats absurd. im sure you're happy to get tickets but thats ridiculous to say that to me

jimed14

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

polaris_x wrote:

not getting tickets is being part of the fan club ... that is something people need to realize ... having success previously did not make the system better for everyone ... there are no guarantees for tickets ... period. the sooner people realize this - the better i think ...

if you live in NY or Boston - and got 11/11 previously ... you should be the last person to complain as a) you've had great luck and fortune while so many did not and you have been in close proximity to probably the most amount of shows requiring you to travel less than so many people to see them ... try being a diehard from Turkey or heck Houston ...

i was one of the lucky ones who was able to always score tickets and with the new lottery i've been shutout but i recognize that as a whole - it's a lot better for the masses ... my only concern is the influence of scalpers in the fan club ...

not getting tickets is being part of the fan club? what does that mean? so because i got tickets to shows in 2010 im not allowed to get them in 2013? thats absurd. im sure you're happy to get tickets but thats ridiculous to say that to me

I don't want to speak for polaris_x, but I'm guessing by "not getting tickets is being part of the fan club", he/she means being part of the fan club does not guarantee you tickets, but only the opportunity to be picked for premium seats via the 10c.

This is *always* how it's been.

from the 10c benefits page ... http://pearljam.com/tenclub

Priority ticketing: Ten Club holds the best seats in the house for members-only pre-sales and rewards long-time fans for their dedication with seniority-based seating. Ticket allocations and box-office relations are handled in-house to ensure that the best tickets end up in the hands of Ten Club members. Although members are not guaranteed tickets, they are given the best chance at the best seats via a drawing, before the public on-sales.

polaris_x

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

not getting tickets is being part of the fan club? what does that mean? so because i got tickets to shows in 2010 im not allowed to get them in 2013? thats absurd. im sure you're happy to get tickets but thats ridiculous to say that to me

dude ... you think you are the only one who didn't get tickets? ... do you think that EVERYONE got tickets in previous tours? ... did you not see the threads of people F5'ing for hours only to get shit? ...

i'm not saying you shouldn't get tickets this go around ... simply that for a lot of fan club members - not getting tickets is not uncommon ... there is not enough supply to meet demand ... it's really not that complicated ...

my biggest gripe with you is that you are lucky to live in a place where you don't have to travel far to see them and that in previous tours while others haven't gotten anything - you've gotten tickets to every show you wanted ... i'm not sure how or why you expect sympathy ... it's like you won the lottery every year and this year you didn't and you're griping about it ...

The_Giant_Midget

polaris_x wrote:

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

not getting tickets is being part of the fan club? what does that mean? so because i got tickets to shows in 2010 im not allowed to get them in 2013? thats absurd. im sure you're happy to get tickets but thats ridiculous to say that to me

dude ... you think you are the only one who didn't get tickets? ... do you think that EVERYONE got tickets in previous tours? ... did you not see the threads of people F5'ing for hours only to get shit? ...

i'm not saying you shouldn't get tickets this go around ... simply that for a lot of fan club members - not getting tickets is not uncommon ... there is not enough supply to meet demand ... it's really not that complicated ...

my biggest gripe with you is that you are lucky to live in a place where you don't have to travel far to see them and that in previous tours while others haven't gotten anything - you've gotten tickets to every show you wanted ... i'm not sure how or why you expect sympathy ... it's like you won the lottery every year and this year you didn't and you're griping about it ...

first of all my post wasnt really a gripe. i asked if there was a way you can figure this out and i suggested a new way. so maybe read. and the funniest part is that if you lost out on tickets youd be feeling the same way. dont worry ill get tickets on the 27th, im still going

South of Seattle

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

so maybe read. and the funniest part is that if you lost out on tickets youd be feeling the same way. dont worry ill get tickets on the 27th, im still going

Well maybe if YOU read, you'd understand that he did lose out on tickets and he's not feeling the same way as you.

I'd say most of us haven't hit 100% using the old system, you did. Consider yourself fortunate.

As far a science behind picking. Use your noodle.
The more popular a show = less tickets available (i.e Brooklyn, Seattle, Philly)

The less popular a show = more tickets available. (i.e Spokane, OKC, Phoenix)

So I went popular show first with Res before GA.(1,2) and then my other show was a less popular location so I went GA then Res.(3,4)

I got my 1st choice Res. and my 2nd show I got the GA.

frisbiec

jimed14 wrote:

Zod wrote:

In all honesty I'm pretty lucky. If you take Seattle out of the equation the NorthWest shows are pretty low in demand. The population on the West Coast pales in comparison with the East Coast.

My gut tells me there was less 10c available for Seattle. Something was up with that lottery. While I completely understand more people putting in for it, (it being a Friday, people wanting to make a "pilgrimage", etc) The 2009 shows were breeze to get, both of them.

And I'm not even talking about my measly Reserved #3 priority try. The hit rate of my friends winning the Seattle show as their #1 and #2 priority feels far less than that of Brooklyn.

I know, two shows vs one ... but, it just feels off.

From my experience/observations, I think the Seattle shows are limited mostly because Pearl Jam management (I can't say exactly who as this is conjecture) comps a ton of tickets to friends & family (not stating that this is right or wrong).

The_Giant_Midget

South of Seattle wrote:

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

so maybe read. and the funniest part is that if you lost out on tickets youd be feeling the same way. dont worry ill get tickets on the 27th, im still going

Well maybe if YOU read, you'd understand that he did lose out on tickets and he's not feeling the same way as you.

I'd say most of us haven't hit 100% using the old system, you did. Consider yourself fortunate.

As far a science behind picking. Use your noodle.
The more popular a show = less tickets available (i.e Brooklyn, Seattle, Philly)

The less popular a show = more tickets available. (i.e Spokane, OKC, Phoenix)

So I went popular show first with Res before GA.(1,2) and then my other show was a less popular location so I went GA then Res.(3,4)

I got my 1st choice Res. and my 2nd show I got the GA.

so answer me this because id like an explanation - so i could miss out on BK 1 as my 1st choice but someone could get BK 1 as their number 4?

TunnelThroughDenial

It's true we don't have all the data to turn it into math or science but you can avoid common pitfalls by knowing the rules and having some strategy.

For example, there is a thread about a guy who only wanted to go to one show so he put in one and only one pick for GA at that show. He didn't realize you can only win GA or Reserved so putting Reserved as priority two would have improved the odds.

I operated under the assumption that there are more reserved seats than GA and more people wanted GA so my approach was to pick reserved above GA (plus I'm too old to stand there all night).

At the end of the day the logical approach is to decide which shows you want to attend in order of preference and put in for them that way. If you have the luxury to afford traveling wherever then it's worth putting a small market high priority to make sure you win at least one. If you want to win more than one show it's foolish to waste a priority on both GA and reserved for the same show.

My two cents

South of Seattle

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

South of Seattle wrote:

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

so maybe read. and the funniest part is that if you lost out on tickets youd be feeling the same way. dont worry ill get tickets on the 27th, im still going

Well maybe if YOU read, you'd understand that he did lose out on tickets and he's not feeling the same way as you.

I'd say most of us haven't hit 100% using the old system, you did. Consider yourself fortunate.

As far a science behind picking. Use your noodle.
The more popular a show = less tickets available (i.e Brooklyn, Seattle, Philly)

The less popular a show = more tickets available. (i.e Spokane, OKC, Phoenix)

So I went popular show first with Res before GA.(1,2) and then my other show was a less popular location so I went GA then Res.(3,4)

I got my 1st choice Res. and my 2nd show I got the GA.

so answer me this because id like an explanation - so i could miss out on BK 1 as my 1st choice but someone could get BK 1 as their number 4?

Well that, I can't help you with

If it was the exact same request. Like if you had BK1 as GA and then someone else had GA as well for their 4th choice, I agree that it is messed up. But if they had reserve as pick 4 and you didn't have reserve as pick 1-3 then yeah, that makes sense.

jumbojet

Anyone can give any strategy but the real trick is to increase your odds, since it is a lottery. You do that by signing up your spouse, g/f - b/f, family member, whatever. If additional $40 is a problem, divide by 2 and get 2 digital memberships. If 10C seats is more important to you than the advantages of analog membership, that shouldnt be a worry.

One form you fill with your real wish with riskier ones, the other you fill as more of a safety one.

YOu dont worry about ending up with more tickets than you can afford to high-demand shows, you can always get rid of them, here.

For sure, this doesnt guarantee any success in high-demand places but it will increase your odds.

polaris_x

The_Giant_Midget wrote:

first of all my post wasnt really a gripe. i asked if there was a way you can figure this out and i suggested a new way. so maybe read. and the funniest part is that if you lost out on tickets youd be feeling the same way. dont worry ill get tickets on the 27th, im still going

uhhh ... i can read ... and your post was a gripe ... you asked why you should bother spending the $40 ...

also, i did lose tickets to the london show ... so, i'm still not sure you get it ...

the other issue you are facing is that there are a lot of people with multiple memberships as well as couples who both have memberships ... all these things are gonna decrease your odds ...

pjl44

JimmyV wrote:

I would say more of an art than a science. Going after shows in smaller markets and foregoing GA in favor of reserved seating will help increase your chances but nothing is guaranteed.

Not necessarily. There are people who got Worcester GA with that as their second priority. There are people who had Worcester Reserved as their first priority and got shut out.

JimmyV

pjl44 wrote:

JimmyV wrote:

I would say more of an art than a science. Going after shows in smaller markets and foregoing GA in favor of reserved seating will help increase your chances but nothing is guaranteed.

Not necessarily. There are people who got Worcester GA with that as their second priority. There are people who had Worcester Reserved as their first priority and got shut out.

True. I think many of us (myself included) overestimated the demand for Worcester GA and went for reserved instead. Now I would have gone for reserved anyway, but I may be an outlier in that. It is shocking to me that anyone scored Worcester GA with a second choice but it happened.

RE4790

Spiritual_Chaos wrote:

RE4790 wrote:

cincybearcat wrote:

There is no science unless you have all the data.

We don't, so it;s all guessing.

This x1000. I have been posting this all week, but no one seemed to get it. Make assumptions all you want about market sizes, arena sizes, locations, and Res vs. GA, but since you have no idea what the other 200k members picked or how many they were picking or in what priority or how many were even entering the lotto, it's all guess work.

Now people who won multiple shows in the NE will assume their strategy was good because of their results ( a type of confirmation bias), but it was all just luck.

You are wrong and/or naive.

Obviously your chances of winning is bigger choosing Phoenix than NY. So therefore it's not just pure luck, and you are wrong.

Sorry, forgot about this thread. You are assuming that PHX will have lower demand than NYC. Maybe no one thought they could get NYC so they all put in for PHX because they assumed it was a sure thing. Point is you don't know for sure, so any strategy is based on assumptions and is therefore a guess. Though, I would agree that your assumption about PHX was probably a good one. OKC also likely had lower demand, but that is a guess.

JimmyV wrote:

pjl44 wrote:

JimmyV wrote:

I would say more of an art than a science. Going after shows in smaller markets and foregoing GA in favor of reserved seating will help increase your chances but nothing is guaranteed.

Not necessarily. There are people who got Worcester GA with that as their second priority. There are people who had Worcester Reserved as their first priority and got shut out.

True. I think many of us (myself included) overestimated the demand for Worcester GA and went for reserved instead. Now I would have gone for reserved anyway, but I may be an outlier in that. It is shocking to me that anyone scored Worcester GA with a second choice but it happened.

There were some suggestions that if you had RES for a show as your #1 and GA for that same show as #2, they would give you GA if any remained, even if RES was available. I applaud that and think that's a smart move by the 10c, if you don't want the GA tickets trade at the venue door with another 10c'er for seats, but it goes to show you that since we didn't know everything about how the lotto worked, it was mostly luck and guesswork.