Electric cars head toward another dead end
lukin2006
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/ ... 3P20130204
Electric cars head toward another dead end
(Reuters) - Are electric cars running out of juice again?
Recent moves by Japan's two largest automakers suggest that the electric car, after more than 100 years of development and several brief revivals, still is not ready for prime time - and may never be.
In the meantime, the attention of automotive executives in Asia, Europe and North America is beginning to swing toward an unusual but promising new alternate power source: hydrogen.
The reality is that consumers continue to show little interest in electric vehicles, or EVs, which dominated U.S. streets in the first decade of the 20th century before being displaced by gasoline-powered cars.
Despite the promise of "green" transportation - and despite billions of dollars in investment, most recently by Nissan Motor Co (7201.T) - EVs continue to be plagued by many of the problems that eventually scuttled electrics in the 1910s and more recently in the 1990s. Those include high cost, short driving range and lack of charging stations.
The public's lack of appetite for battery-powered cars persuaded the Obama administration last week to back away from its aggressive goal to put 1 million electric cars on U.S. roads by 2015.
The tepid response to EVs also pushed Nissan's high-profile chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, perhaps the industry's most outspoken proponent of battery cars, to announce in December a major strategic shift toward more mainstream gasoline-electric hybrids, which overcome many of the shortcomings of pure EVs.
The move was widely seen as a tacit acknowledgement by Ghosn that his all-or-nothing, multibillion-dollar bet on EVs is falling far short of his ambition to sell hundreds of thousands of battery-powered Nissan Leafs.
Instead, Nissan plans to follow rival Toyota Motor Co (7203.T), the world's largest purveyor of hybrids, which now is poised to leapfrog pure EVs altogether to pursue what might be the next big green-tech breakthrough: pollution- and petroleum-free fuel-cell cars that convert hydrogen to electricity.
Vice Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada, the "father of the Prius" who helped put hybrids on the map, said he believes fuel-cell vehicles hold far more promise than battery electric cars.
"Because of its shortcomings - driving range, cost and recharging time - the electric vehicle is not a viable replacement for most conventional cars," said Uchiyamada. "We need something entirely new."
TOYOTA'S LONG LEAD
In the race to identify the Next Big Thing in automotive technology, the stakes are enormous.
For example, Nissan, with French partner Renault (RENA.PA), has committed $5 billion for development and manufacture of EVs and batteries - a risky bet that could take years to pay off - while Toyota has spent an estimated $10 billion or more over the past 16 years to develop, build and market an ever-expanding range of hybrids, led by the popular and now profitable Prius.
While neither Nissan nor Toyota is likely to pull the plug on electric cars, it is clear from their recent moves that both companies are looking beyond EVs to meet future transportation needs.
Both automakers began advanced green-car engineering programs in the mid-1990s, with Toyota introducing the first-generation Prius hybrid and Nissan unveiling the battery-powered Altra in late 1997.
Toyota brought the Prius to the United States in 2000, but it took Nissan another 10 years to follow the low-volume Altra and other modest electric-car projects such as the Hypermini with the handsomely funded 2010 launch of the Leaf.
With Uchiyamada overseeing continuous refinement of the Prius, Toyota took a 10-year lead in the green-car derby. Along the way, though, Toyota effectively subsidized billions of dollars in development, manufacturing and marketing costs through the first two generations of the Prius, according to former Toyota executives.
While it took the Toyota hybrid six years to catch fire with U.S. consumers, the latest sales data points to the widening chasm between the two companies' radically different approaches to electrification.
In the past year, Toyota has broadened its hybrid portfolio to 12 models, including four versions of the Prius, now in its third generation. Toyota in 2012 sold 327,413 hybrids in the United States and 1.2 million globally. Worldwide sales of its hybrids now approach 5 million.
The Prius accounts for more than half of those sales, making it the most successful green car in history and one of the few exceptions to the public's yawning indifference to green vehicles and technology.
The Leaf, on the other hand, has been the rule rather than the exception.
Nissan unveiled the Leaf two years ago and to date has sold just under 50,000 worldwide. It sold 9,819 last year in the United States, well under its target of 20,000.
As part of a year-end sales push, Nissan slapped incentives of almost $6,000 on the Leaf, and in January slashed the starting price by more than $6,000, to $29,650. Some Nissan dealers in Los Angeles are advertising Leaf lease rates as low as $199 a month with $1,999 down, according to industry research firm TrueCar.
"When new technologies are launched, sales do not grow as quickly as everyone expects," said Mitsuhiko Yamashita, Nissan executive vice president and head of research and development. But "with EV technologies continuously improving and with prices falling, there is a possibility that sales could explode."
That isn't likely to happen anytime soon.
Nissan may be mildly encouraged that the Leaf is the best-selling pure EV in the United States. But total EV sales last year were only 14,687, representing 0.1 percent of total U.S. sales of 14.5 million. In comparison, hybrid sales in 2012 climbed to 473,083, or roughly 3.3 percent of the market. And of every three hybrids sold last year in the United States, two were a Toyota or a Lexus.
Fueled by government subsidies and tax incentives, hybrid sales in Japan have rocketed to 40 percent of the industry total, with the Prius a top seller. Hybrids, however, have been far less popular with consumers in such major markets as Europe and China.
"WE ARE PRAGMATIC PEOPLE"
The outlook for pure electric vehicles is even more cloudy.
At the moment, Ghosn's heady 2009 prediction that electric vehicles would capture 10 percent of the global market by 2020 - 6 million battery-powered cars a year or more - doesn't seem remotely within reach.
Yet the gradual tightening of global fuel-efficiency standards from 2020 on is forcing automakers to assess their options, including the application of advanced technology.
Says Nissan's Yamashita: "It is not possible to meet (future) regulations unless vehicles are electrified."
The harsh reality of the market and the public's underwhelming demand for EVs, however, illuminate Nissan's recent decision to shift more of its green-tech investment into hybrids.
In December the company announced it plans to introduce 15 new hybrids globally by early 2017.
At the time, Ghosn said, "We are going to continue to heavily promote electric cars, but at the same time, we are business people, we are pragmatic people. We will also develop and deliver hybrids because there are markets and consumers that require hybrids."
Last September, Toyota publicly walked away from plans to build several thousand electric cars, scaling back projected volume to a mere 100 battery-powered minicars.
Both Japanese automakers, meanwhile, have forged new alliances to develop hydrogen-powered fuel cell cars, Toyota with BMW and, in a deal announced last week, Nissan with Daimler AG (DAIGn.DE) and Ford Motor Co (F.N).
In the meantime, despite massive investments in battery technology and vehicles, even the most ardent EV adherents seem a bit ambivalent about the future of battery cars.
"We don't regret it yet," says Nissan's Yamashita of the company's multibillion-dollar gamble on EVs. "We might in a few years. No, we probably won't." (Additional reporting by Paul Ingrassia in New York, Laurence Frost in Paris, Deepa Seetharaman and Bernie Woodall in Detroit; Editing by Martin Howell and Douglas Royalty)
Not surprised ... I think for the average car owner the price will keep them out of reach.
Electric cars head toward another dead end
(Reuters) - Are electric cars running out of juice again?
Recent moves by Japan's two largest automakers suggest that the electric car, after more than 100 years of development and several brief revivals, still is not ready for prime time - and may never be.
In the meantime, the attention of automotive executives in Asia, Europe and North America is beginning to swing toward an unusual but promising new alternate power source: hydrogen.
The reality is that consumers continue to show little interest in electric vehicles, or EVs, which dominated U.S. streets in the first decade of the 20th century before being displaced by gasoline-powered cars.
Despite the promise of "green" transportation - and despite billions of dollars in investment, most recently by Nissan Motor Co (7201.T) - EVs continue to be plagued by many of the problems that eventually scuttled electrics in the 1910s and more recently in the 1990s. Those include high cost, short driving range and lack of charging stations.
The public's lack of appetite for battery-powered cars persuaded the Obama administration last week to back away from its aggressive goal to put 1 million electric cars on U.S. roads by 2015.
The tepid response to EVs also pushed Nissan's high-profile chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, perhaps the industry's most outspoken proponent of battery cars, to announce in December a major strategic shift toward more mainstream gasoline-electric hybrids, which overcome many of the shortcomings of pure EVs.
The move was widely seen as a tacit acknowledgement by Ghosn that his all-or-nothing, multibillion-dollar bet on EVs is falling far short of his ambition to sell hundreds of thousands of battery-powered Nissan Leafs.
Instead, Nissan plans to follow rival Toyota Motor Co (7203.T), the world's largest purveyor of hybrids, which now is poised to leapfrog pure EVs altogether to pursue what might be the next big green-tech breakthrough: pollution- and petroleum-free fuel-cell cars that convert hydrogen to electricity.
Vice Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada, the "father of the Prius" who helped put hybrids on the map, said he believes fuel-cell vehicles hold far more promise than battery electric cars.
"Because of its shortcomings - driving range, cost and recharging time - the electric vehicle is not a viable replacement for most conventional cars," said Uchiyamada. "We need something entirely new."
TOYOTA'S LONG LEAD
In the race to identify the Next Big Thing in automotive technology, the stakes are enormous.
For example, Nissan, with French partner Renault (RENA.PA), has committed $5 billion for development and manufacture of EVs and batteries - a risky bet that could take years to pay off - while Toyota has spent an estimated $10 billion or more over the past 16 years to develop, build and market an ever-expanding range of hybrids, led by the popular and now profitable Prius.
While neither Nissan nor Toyota is likely to pull the plug on electric cars, it is clear from their recent moves that both companies are looking beyond EVs to meet future transportation needs.
Both automakers began advanced green-car engineering programs in the mid-1990s, with Toyota introducing the first-generation Prius hybrid and Nissan unveiling the battery-powered Altra in late 1997.
Toyota brought the Prius to the United States in 2000, but it took Nissan another 10 years to follow the low-volume Altra and other modest electric-car projects such as the Hypermini with the handsomely funded 2010 launch of the Leaf.
With Uchiyamada overseeing continuous refinement of the Prius, Toyota took a 10-year lead in the green-car derby. Along the way, though, Toyota effectively subsidized billions of dollars in development, manufacturing and marketing costs through the first two generations of the Prius, according to former Toyota executives.
While it took the Toyota hybrid six years to catch fire with U.S. consumers, the latest sales data points to the widening chasm between the two companies' radically different approaches to electrification.
In the past year, Toyota has broadened its hybrid portfolio to 12 models, including four versions of the Prius, now in its third generation. Toyota in 2012 sold 327,413 hybrids in the United States and 1.2 million globally. Worldwide sales of its hybrids now approach 5 million.
The Prius accounts for more than half of those sales, making it the most successful green car in history and one of the few exceptions to the public's yawning indifference to green vehicles and technology.
The Leaf, on the other hand, has been the rule rather than the exception.
Nissan unveiled the Leaf two years ago and to date has sold just under 50,000 worldwide. It sold 9,819 last year in the United States, well under its target of 20,000.
As part of a year-end sales push, Nissan slapped incentives of almost $6,000 on the Leaf, and in January slashed the starting price by more than $6,000, to $29,650. Some Nissan dealers in Los Angeles are advertising Leaf lease rates as low as $199 a month with $1,999 down, according to industry research firm TrueCar.
"When new technologies are launched, sales do not grow as quickly as everyone expects," said Mitsuhiko Yamashita, Nissan executive vice president and head of research and development. But "with EV technologies continuously improving and with prices falling, there is a possibility that sales could explode."
That isn't likely to happen anytime soon.
Nissan may be mildly encouraged that the Leaf is the best-selling pure EV in the United States. But total EV sales last year were only 14,687, representing 0.1 percent of total U.S. sales of 14.5 million. In comparison, hybrid sales in 2012 climbed to 473,083, or roughly 3.3 percent of the market. And of every three hybrids sold last year in the United States, two were a Toyota or a Lexus.
Fueled by government subsidies and tax incentives, hybrid sales in Japan have rocketed to 40 percent of the industry total, with the Prius a top seller. Hybrids, however, have been far less popular with consumers in such major markets as Europe and China.
"WE ARE PRAGMATIC PEOPLE"
The outlook for pure electric vehicles is even more cloudy.
At the moment, Ghosn's heady 2009 prediction that electric vehicles would capture 10 percent of the global market by 2020 - 6 million battery-powered cars a year or more - doesn't seem remotely within reach.
Yet the gradual tightening of global fuel-efficiency standards from 2020 on is forcing automakers to assess their options, including the application of advanced technology.
Says Nissan's Yamashita: "It is not possible to meet (future) regulations unless vehicles are electrified."
The harsh reality of the market and the public's underwhelming demand for EVs, however, illuminate Nissan's recent decision to shift more of its green-tech investment into hybrids.
In December the company announced it plans to introduce 15 new hybrids globally by early 2017.
At the time, Ghosn said, "We are going to continue to heavily promote electric cars, but at the same time, we are business people, we are pragmatic people. We will also develop and deliver hybrids because there are markets and consumers that require hybrids."
Last September, Toyota publicly walked away from plans to build several thousand electric cars, scaling back projected volume to a mere 100 battery-powered minicars.
Both Japanese automakers, meanwhile, have forged new alliances to develop hydrogen-powered fuel cell cars, Toyota with BMW and, in a deal announced last week, Nissan with Daimler AG (DAIGn.DE) and Ford Motor Co (F.N).
In the meantime, despite massive investments in battery technology and vehicles, even the most ardent EV adherents seem a bit ambivalent about the future of battery cars.
"We don't regret it yet," says Nissan's Yamashita of the company's multibillion-dollar gamble on EVs. "We might in a few years. No, we probably won't." (Additional reporting by Paul Ingrassia in New York, Laurence Frost in Paris, Deepa Seetharaman and Bernie Woodall in Detroit; Editing by Martin Howell and Douglas Royalty)
Not surprised ... I think for the average car owner the price will keep them out of reach.
I have certain rules I live by ... My First Rule ... I don't believe anything the government tells me ... George Carlin
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
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jo
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"Some people hear their own inner voices with great clearness and they live by what they hear. Such people become crazy, or they become legends." ~ One Stab ~
Secondly, to be honest, I object to the term "green transportation". The only environmentally sound form of transportation is walking. The cost to the environment for any kind of car is very large if we don't get out of it and walk more often.
I'm also leery of what I see as false hopes regarding fuel cell vehicles. So far, I've read nothing about them that indicates the problems involved in their safety have been resolved.
Of course I think hybrids and EV's and maybe fuel cell vehicles are a better choice than gas guzzlers, but we need to stop kidding ourselves. The "happy driving habits" as (James Howard Kunstler puts it) that we've practiced for the last several decades will and should come to an end.
The streets here are full of Teslas, Leafs, Volts, and Prius
There are charging stations at public facilities, supermarkets, libraries, etc
Lots of people ride bikes to work, walk, run, etc
Nice living in a city that is so eco-friendly and eco-forward
I'm envious, Bentleyspop! I live in a small town that is dominated by big, noisy, stinking ROATs (ridiculously over-sized American trucks). I've been nearly rammed or run off the road at least a dozen times in the last five years. People scowl at me because I drive a Prius. They think it somehow defines who I am as a person.
And Jesus, really, the notion that I look down my nose at people because of what I drive? :roll: I would rather be ridiculed for championing the idea of walking or riding a bike or ride sharing. Or not.
(actually, too many LA drivers are either distracted or narcissistic - or both - regardless of their vehicle. Beware of tourists on segways!)
You've been nearly driven off the road intentionally by a Prius? Really?
Plus there are assholes everywhere - what they drive (even if they don't drive) makes no difference
Anyway, apologies for the derailment.
what town is this?
i'm not sure hydrogen is the way to go ... the investment in infrastructure would be significantly more than EV ... plus, all EV's need to do is figure out how to charge a battery a lot faster ... not that it is insignificant obstacle but simply that's the only thing really preventing it from becoming more relevant ...
the other thing is these are car manufacturers ... EV have a lot less maintenance so they need to make their money up front vs. other cars where they will get dollars in service and parts ...
faster and much greater distance's ... here in Canada where so many people live in rural areas combined with the price make it impractical for many people. I more inclined to think that hybrid vehicles are going to win out the day.
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
How cheap is insurance in California? I know I go to great lengths to avoid an accident...maybe your just careless drivers in California.
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
the EV vehicles are essentially hybrids ... they all have gas engines for longer drives ... still, the range is pretty good these days .. the leaf can go 175 km ... if you're doing big commute like that daily - you got bigger problems i say ... and really if they put in the infrastructure (a plug) ... who's to say a guy can't actually plug the car while at work?
Ive been wondering about that. Would businesses allow this if more and more electric vehicles ar eon the road?
Its not like my boss gives me a few gallons of gas on my lunch break. :P
on average you need about 0.26 kwh per mile you drive ... so, if your commute is say 30 miles ... you need about 7.8kwh which at say 10 cents per (which is high relative to todays market) is 78 cents worth of electricity ... i think your boss can afford it ... if he/she were to do that for a company of say 100 ... that's $78 a day x 225 days a year of work = $17,550 ... but he'll get that back in spades in terms of company attractiveness, employee happiness, brand value, etc...
Why couldn't/shouldn't the employee pay for their own electricity though? Companies could provide the means/access so it's done during work hours, but put it on the employees to drop their own dime on it, so to speak.
yeah ... LA is probably one of the most expensive in the country ...
i'm not necessarily saying they should or shouldn't ... only in that if an employer did pay for it - it would be a good investment ...
in edmonton where winters are brutal and a lot of cars have block heaters ... the companies pay for those cars to be plugged in ...
I pay a little under $800 a year on the Prius but I'm heavily covered because a) the MDR's (Mongo Dodge Rams) want to ram me
Yeah, lots of bad drivers, but the craziest drivers I've ever seen were in Boston and Rome. Really got my adrenaline going visiting those towns!
Hedonist- yes there are lots of assholes everywhere but remember this: assholes serve a useful purpose. Hemorrhoids are much worse!
Boulder, CO
What's the latest on making hydrogen vehicles safe? Last I heard, they were still considered a bomb on wheels.
You remember the first decade of the 20th century?
Good gravy, how old are you?
Old enough to hide my own Easter eggs.
I think I might have meant "the 21st century".
Sorry, what were we talking about?
here's a couple of links related to a NY Times review of the car that subsequently was deemed to be a fraud by Tesla ...
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/new-york ... itter.html
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/tesla-re ... drive.html
electric is the way to go ...
the new tesla's ... have a range of about 250 miles ... probably a bit more in warm weather climate like southern and central CA ... with the supercharger (of which there are stations in california) - it takes about 90 mins to charge ... so, you'd have to plan your lunches or so around something like that ...
a bunch of reviewers ran a test driving it from dc to boston in a day ... in the winter ... outside of the NYT review which tesla's log records prove were a bit of a fraud ... most completed the trip successfully ... without significant fuss ...
Crazy.
a Toyota Prius start at around 27 000 ... start adding options and that price is probably much more ... once again hardly affordable for the average consumer ...
"Life Is What Happens To You When Your Busy Making Other Plans" John Lennon
(It get's into the prius mid way)
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