No threads on the economy?

inlet13

I said I'd take some time off here. So, I did. I actually thought I would not come back in here. But, this last week, man, it's been crazy. So, I figured I'd at least stop in here while I was on the site and read all sorts of threads on financial markets and the economy. To my surprise, I found none.

Seriously, everyone? This is the Moving Train! The Dow has dropped for 9 out of the last 10 days. No threads? The Dow is down more than 1000 points... no threads? The Dow had it's worst day today since '08 and no threads?

Come on, seriously?

Ok,... maybe you don't pay attention to the stock market, which is a leading indicator for the economy. How about the weak GDP figure? How about manufacturing (ISM hit multi-period lows)? How about the fact that announced US job cuts rose to a 16 month high? How about how consumer spending fell for the first time since September 09? How about falling consumer confidence? How about the situation in Italy, Spain, Portugal... How about the debt situation here? You know, it's possible this debt ceiling drama will creep it's head up again right before the election, right? Why would that happen... oh... because of the shitty economy. How about China raising interest rates to curb inflation... how will that effect us? How about our economy in general?

Do you all just not care? Hate to break it to you... the economy trumps pretty much everything mentioned on this forum, so this thread is a suggestion to start discussing it. I'll sit back and listen.

Cheers.

catefrances

well im hoping to purchase a couple of your smaller states when i visit in october... maybe the influx of capital might help you all pay off some of your debt.

CH156378

i'm buying gold, firewood, ammo, and canned goods.

CH156378

i also have withdrawn all the money from my 401k and had it sewn into my mattress

inlet13

CH156378 wrote:

i also have withdrawn all the money from my 401k and had it sewn into my mattress

I'm glad you think the largest drop in financial markets since The Great Depression is funny. It won't be funny if this continues, we see more layoffs and the government can't afford to pay unemployment.

Seriously, this could be way, way, way worse than that first recession. The money is not there this time. This is bigger than politics.

gimmesometruth27

inlet13 wrote:

I said I'd take some time off here. So, I did. I actually thought I would not come back in here. But, this last week, man, it's been crazy. So, I figured I'd at least stop in here while I was on the site and read all sorts of threads on financial markets and the economy. To my surprise, I found none.

Seriously, everyone? This is the Moving Train! The Dow has dropped for 9 out of the last 10 days. No threads? The Dow is down more than 1000 points... no threads? The Dow had it's worst day today since '08 and no threads?

Come on, seriously?

Ok,... maybe you don't pay attention to the stock market, which is a leading indicator for the economy. How about the weak GDP figure? How about manufacturing (ISM hit multi-period lows)? How about the fact that announced US job cuts rose to a 16 month high? How about how consumer spending fell for the first time since September 09? How about falling consumer confidence? How about the situation in Italy, Spain, Portugal... How about the debt situation here? You know, it's possible this debt ceiling drama will creep it's head up again right before the election, right? Why would that happen... oh... because of the shitty economy. How about China raising interest rates to curb inflation... how will that effect us? How about our economy in general?

Do you all just not care? Hate to break it to you... the economy trumps pretty much everything mentioned on this forum, so this thread is a suggestion to start discussing it. I'll sit back and listen.

Cheers.

you seem to be the expert and seem to be the man with the plan, why not enlighten us?

personally i am so sick of hearing about the economy so i come here to avoid discussing it. i come here to discuss things that are not the top story on the nightly news. and nobody knows how to fix it, and when someone has an idea it is shot down by partison bickering and held up by political theater.. we are stuck with an inept, to put it mildly, congress that can't figure how to turn on a lightswitch, let alone tackle something as complicated as a tanked economy...

inlet13

gimmesometruth27 wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

I said I'd take some time off here. So, I did. I actually thought I would not come back in here. But, this last week, man, it's been crazy. So, I figured I'd at least stop in here while I was on the site and read all sorts of threads on financial markets and the economy. To my surprise, I found none.

Seriously, everyone? This is the Moving Train! The Dow has dropped for 9 out of the last 10 days. No threads? The Dow is down more than 1000 points... no threads? The Dow had it's worst day today since '08 and no threads?

Come on, seriously?

Ok,... maybe you don't pay attention to the stock market, which is a leading indicator for the economy. How about the weak GDP figure? How about manufacturing (ISM hit multi-period lows)? How about the fact that announced US job cuts rose to a 16 month high? How about how consumer spending fell for the first time since September 09? How about falling consumer confidence? How about the situation in Italy, Spain, Portugal... How about the debt situation here? You know, it's possible this debt ceiling drama will creep it's head up again right before the election, right? Why would that happen... oh... because of the shitty economy. How about China raising interest rates to curb inflation... how will that effect us? How about our economy in general?

Do you all just not care? Hate to break it to you... the economy trumps pretty much everything mentioned on this forum, so this thread is a suggestion to start discussing it. I'll sit back and listen.

Cheers.

you seem to be the expert and seem to be the man with the plan, why not enlighten us?

personally i am so sick of hearing about the economy so i come here to avoid discussing it. i come here to discuss things that are not the top story on the nightly news. and nobody knows how to fix it, and when someone has an idea it is shot down by partison bickering and held up by political theater.. we are stuck with an inept, to put it mildly, congress that can't figure how to turn on a lightswitch, let alone tackle something as complicated as a tanked economy...

I just think it's sad when this issue gets overplayed by "heterosexual pride day" or some of these other threads.

This is serious. I know we won't all agree on the solution. But, to not discuss it on a board like this is lame. I agree about congress. I'd say the same about the whitehouse and the fed. And I'm not picking on Obama, I'm picking on everyone... they are clueless.

My opinion... we should have let it bleed after the first downturn. I admittedly supported the "first" bailout. I was wrong. Since then, I've been against the bailouts and more importantly all moves by the FED.... To take a step back, my opinion... if I had to say one party to blame... are...

THE FED. Not Obama, not Bush... THE FED.

inlet13

One more thing, my opinion... and I may be wrong... get out of stocks in your 401K if you want to save your money. Put it in the "safe" fund, there's always one option for this. I did this two weeks ago. I've saved atleast 10% of what I could've lost.

RFTC

inlet13 wrote:

One more thing, my opinion... and I may be wrong... get out of stocks in your 401K if you want to save your money. Put it in the "safe" fund, there's always one option for this. I did this two weeks ago. I've saved atleast 10% of what I could've lost.

that is one option and certainly yours to make. if you do not have a retirement horizon for say 10-20 years, an argument can be made to sit tight (provided you have a diversified portfolio already).

i pay other people to manage my $ so i do not freak on days like today, and believe me that anxiety is tough to endure. i can tell you that if i managed my own $, i would have made plenty of shortsighted changes in 2008, mid 2009, and probably this past week.

back to original question posed by OP, i have literraly OD'd on the DC political BS over last month that the econ turmoil has sort of slid of my consciousness. if the market tanks another 200+ tmrw, it will be a great weeked to homebrew and i have just the recipe for a killer Stone Arrogant Bastard clone

inlet13

RFTC wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

One more thing, my opinion... and I may be wrong... get out of stocks in your 401K if you want to save your money. Put it in the "safe" fund, there's always one option for this. I did this two weeks ago. I've saved atleast 10% of what I could've lost.

that is one option and certainly yours to make. if you do not have a retirement horizon for say 10-20 years, an argument can be made to sit tight (provided you have a diversified portfolio already).

i pay other people to manage my $ so i do not freak on days like today, and believe me that anxiety is tough to endure. i can tell you that if i managed my own $, i would have made plenty of shortsighted changes in 2008, mid 2009, and probably this past week.

back to original question posed by OP, i have literraly OD'd on the DC political BS over last month that the econ turmoil has sort of slid of my consciousness. if the market tanks another 200+ tmrw, it will be a great weeked to homebrew and i have just the recipe for a killer Stone Arrogant Bastard clone

First, off I love Arrogant Bastard... so I'm betting that's good stuff.

Second, I'm not trying to act like I know the future, I don't. But, to your original point, the "investment horizon" concept goes right out the window in severe recessions. Here's why:

a) Investment pros: want your money in markets. They have the incentive to tell you to stay in. But, most important, they won't tell you to get out... nor will they hold your hand and walk you into the "safe haven" option in most 401Ks. Why? Because they'd prefer these to not even exist.
b) In a way, you're right.... You will eventually make the money you will loseback (if this really is a new recession)... maybe a two years from now, if you discount the contributions going in.
c) Alternatively, if you get into the safe haven within your 401K, you will simply not loseany of the money that those invested in the stock market would. So, it's safer. You can continue to add to your 401K, it will operate the same, but you just won't be vested in the market itself, instead you'd be vested in something much, much safer and much, much lower risk. The obvious caveat is, if the market jumps up again... you'd lose out. But, do you think it will right now?
d) My thinking is if you get into the safe haven for a bit, just wait it out, then get back into the market again once you feel comfortable. Let's say it is a new recession (that behaves like the last). Someone who didn't do as I suggested would lose 50% of what they have in their 401K. If another person followed what I said, then once the economy turns, jumps back in.... they could lose nothing (in fact gain 1%)... then get back in and potentially make a shit load of money when the market (DOW) goes up fro 6500K to 12500 again. The obvious key would be when to get back in... but, there's no reason to have to time it perfectly provided it goes down enough.

So, I put out that info, not so people jump out of the market, I put it out so people at least hear a contrarian point of view. I hope I'm wrong, actually. But, I don't think I am. Worst case, if you follow my advice you'll make 1% in your 401K for a bit, but be playing it safe.

RFTC

to op, appreaciate the advice and outlook. i have to stop visiting zerohedge.com as those blokes will have me rattling my brokers chain. btw, he does not manage my 401k and i did adjust go-forward allocations to a mm type fund to ride this storm out.

what's your take on physical silver right now? i bought in at 35, 4 months back and am considering another 50-100 oz if it stays <40, according to ZH, those manipulated margin calls are keeping silver down maybe due to physical shortage???

inlet13

RFTC wrote:

to op, appreaciate the advice and outlook. i have to stop visiting zerohedge.com as those blokes will have me rattling my brokers chain. btw, he does not manage my 401k and i did adjust go-forward allocations to a mm type fund to ride this storm out.

what's your take on physical silver right now? i bought in at 35, 4 months back and am considering another 50-100 oz if it stays <40, according to ZH, those manipulated margin calls are keeping silver down maybe due to physical shortage???

Cool.

Silver: Honestly, I don't know about precious metals. They make sense in this environment, so I think you're right on. However, they are very highly priced, so I also understand your question. If things go further south, there's all the reason for those prices to rise further, but my thinking is, when's the top? Japan's expanded monetary policy may slow growth in precious metals. But, if this downturn in the US continues, precious metals value will probably jump back up. So, although short term you might face some headwinds... within the next 5 months, provided you believe a recession is coming, I think it's a good bet.

Nothingman54

Make weed legal in all states.

RFTC

Nothingman54 wrote:

Make weed legal in all states.

first decriminalize in all states, get Holder out of the states biz. then you set path for legalization, hell we had 2-3 congressmen go on record to legalize, tides a turnin.

usamamasan1

tomorrow i buy. long and strong.

and to answer your question OP, no threads on the economy because it's not "GW's fault" and this forum is a vacuum of left wingers. the current occupant's staff said today "We are not going to comment on something we don't have control over" when asked about the correction today and the last 10...

Disaster leadership.

Obama is a serious wound.

where is our leaderships plan for economic growth? High speed rail? "investments in our future"

FiveB247x

We should all hope it comes crashing down. The fallacy that private, for profit industries should be the backbone of America's citizens stability and well-being (banking, healthcare,social security, energy, etc) is so far out of whack. Wall Street is nothing more than greed, and the rich getting richer nowadays. Let it all come crashing down and in the long term, our nation and population would be far better off for it.

usamamasan1

brilliant

The Moving Train

LikeAnOcean

Maybe it's time to dump technology and all the crap and stress that comes along with it and start living the simple life, small communities of people helping each other out. No jobs being exported overseas.



It's sad when our economy is based on speculation. We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.

cross7806

quote THE FED. Not Obama, not Bush... THE FED. Unquote
The Fed has been screwing us for almost a hundred years now since 1913. Read the Creature from Jekyll Island. It is long but very very good. The Fed is nothing more than a bank that loans money to the country. It's not a government agency. It's a central bank.

know1

inlet13 wrote:

One more thing, my opinion... and I may be wrong... get out of stocks in your 401K if you want to save your money. Put it in the "safe" fund, there's always one option for this. I did this two weeks ago. I've saved atleast 10% of what I could've lost.

This is the biggest mistake you can make, unless you're going to retire in the next few years.

For those with longer to go, this is the perfect time to "buy cheap" and have it grow until retirement.

You shouldn't even look at the dollar value of your 401K. You should think about how you had "X" number of shares yesterday and you still have "X" number today. Plus, the ones you buy today will be cheaper and you always want to buy cheap as opposed to selling cheap.

So, instead of saving what you could have lost, you've just probably lost more in future returns.

RFTC

know1 wrote:

inlet13 wrote:

One more thing, my opinion... and I may be wrong... get out of stocks in your 401K if you want to save your money. Put it in the "safe" fund, there's always one option for this. I did this two weeks ago. I've saved atleast 10% of what I could've lost.

This is the biggest mistake you can make, unless you're going to retire in the next few years.

For those with longer to go, this is the perfect time to "buy cheap" and have it grow until retirement.

You shouldn't even look at the dollar value of your 401K. You should think about how you had "X" number of shares yesterday and you still have "X" number today. Plus, the ones you buy today will be cheaper and you always want to buy cheap as opposed to selling cheap.

So, instead of saving what you could have lost, you've just probably lost more in future returns.

I used to be a staunch 'buy n hold' advocate and adding on the dip as you suggest, AND believe that market timing is foolish. i have become less a fan of this approach over the past 4 years as our economy is undergoing changes not seen in previous modern era cycles, i.e. globalization of econ, our fiat currency is in jeopardy, and finally a fundamental shift from goods to service job growth.

all these things have me thinking IT COULD BE DIFFERENT, this time. i am holding steady for now, looking for a bounce in coming weeks and considering a reallocation prior to what could be a historically shitty October in the market.

cincybearcat

Gob wrote:

Maybe it's time to dump technology and all the crap and stress that comes along with it and start living the simple life, small communities of people helping each other out. No jobs being exported overseas.



It's sad when our economy is based on speculation. We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.

Can we also go back to the time with no sanitary system? If people would just die as young as they use to, we wouldn't even need SS.

polaris_x

the question is when is this facade going to end!? ... how much longer do we continue to allow these evil bastards the free will to manipulate the system for maximum gain while we "trade" on virtual / trumped up assets ...

take your money and learn to grow your own food and bake your own bread ... the house is gonna come crumbling down - it's a matter of time ...

edit:

signed - resident treehugger

ps ... welcome back to the OP

pandora

CH156378 wrote:

i'm buying gold, firewood, ammo, and canned goods.

great ... made me laugh

inlet13

know1 wrote:

This is the biggest mistake you can make, unless you're going to retire in the next few years.

For those with longer to go, this is the perfect time to "buy cheap" and have it grow until retirement.

It's the perfect time to buy cheap if you think the market won't FALL. If it's going to FALL, you're dead wrong. If it falls, it's best to get into something safe, wait it out and jump back in when it's cheaper

know1 wrote:

You shouldn't even look at the dollar value of your 401K. You should think about how you had "X" number of shares yesterday and you still have "X" number today. Plus, the ones you buy today will be cheaper and you always want to buy cheap as opposed to selling cheap.

So, instead of saving what you could have lost, you've just probably lost more in future returns.

Nah, if this continues to fall I will be able to jump back in when it hits bottom and make a crap load more money than someone who just "buys and holds". And I don't even need to know the bottom. I just need to wait it out. See when it begins to turn up again for a sustained period and jump back in. Granted everything I'm saying is based on the market falling more.... and I admittedly could be 100% wrong about that.

To me "buy and hold" is a thing of the past since the most recent recession. "Buy and hold" assumes recessions are small, and corrections in the market mean small dips... not 50% drops like we've seen recently (and may see again). To put it bluntly, most 401Ks are well diversified. The Dow, for instance, is also diversified. If the Dow plummets by 50%, a 401K holder who's heavily vested in equities, will end up with roughly 50% lower value in their 401K (less the new contributions that went in, which always fools people into believing that their 401K is doing better than it actually is). Sure, if you chose the right funds, you may be 40% lower. But, you'll be lower. My argument is to not sit around and see your money tank. You want to buy cheap? You can buy into something safe waiting to get back in at the bottom when it's "cheaper". So, sit on the sidelines, watch the market tank, then hop back in when the value is better.

You're basically saying that staying with a stock that's valued at $50 a share, when it's sinking to $25 a share is smart because you can buy more stocks at $25 a share, and the value will eventually go back up to $50 a share later. My point is get out when it's falling... put your money elsewhere and getting back in at $25 a share is smarter. That way, you have more money to use, to buy more shares, cheaper. Then you can watch it rise back up to $50 a share. (I should say however, if the market doesn't fall... you're approach is obviously wiser because you'll "make" money, while I'll be sitting on the sidelines.)

The days of regurgitating financial advisor info is over. They are clueless when it comes to the economy and macro drivers. This market is ruled by the macro drivers, not by company fundamentals. Getting out and waiting for a bottom to get back in is the smart approach.

inlet13

Caveat... semi-positive unemployment data today, let's see what this does for the Dow.

Jeanwah

I just find the economy so depressing that there's not much a need to keep talking about it.

Like Polaris mentioned, I'm focused on growing my own food instead.

ed243421

FiveB247x wrote:

We should all hope it comes crashing down. The fallacy that private, for profit industries should be the backbone of America's citizens stability and well-being (banking, healthcare,social security, energy, etc) is so far out of whack. Wall Street is nothing more than greed, and the rich getting richer nowadays. Let it all come crashing down and in the long term, our nation and population would be far better off for it.

five

i know you are from new york and all, but i have to give you credit

i agree with just about every post you make

and this is another where you are exactly correct

keep on postin'

change will come

SPEEDY MCCREADY

Jeanwah wrote:

I just find the economy so depressing that there's not much a need to keep talking about it.

Like Polaris mentioned, I'm focused on growing my own food instead.

What ya growing???

Go Beavers

inlet13 wrote:

Caveat... semi-positive unemployment data today, let's see what this does for the Dow.

Payrolls rose 154,000 in the private sector in July. Sad-happy--happy--sad.

Jeanwah

SPEEDY MCCREADY wrote:

Jeanwah wrote:

I just find the economy so depressing that there's not much a need to keep talking about it.

Like Polaris mentioned, I'm focused on growing my own food instead.

What ya growing???

The question is more like... What is not dying? Veggies are flourishing, that's about it! I definitely don't have a green thumb.