What to do about ireland

MI38162

email from a friend ...

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/letters/how-the-stimulus-package-really-works-2406920.html

How the stimulus package really works . . . . Thursday November 04 2010

IT IS a slow day in a dusty little Irish town. The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted.

Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.

On this particular day a rich tourist is driving through the town, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night.

The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer.

The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel.

The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the pub.

The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit.

The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the €100 note. The hotel proprietor then places the €100 note back on the counter so the rich traveller will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money, and leaves town.

No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the stimulus package works.

Anthony woods
Ennis, co clare

satansbed

ANALYSIS: The Taoiseach delivered an assured performance as he defended the tough medicine in the plan – the pity is that he didn’t do it consistently since he took office

THE PUBLICATION of the National Recovery Plan has coincided with a dawning of political reality across the political spectrum. Whatever manoeuvring takes place over the next two weeks, the budget, however unpalatable it is, will be passed by the Dáil on December 7th because the country has no other option.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan laid out the position in stark terms at the launch of the plan yesterday.

The State will simply run out of money unless measures are implemented that will deliver savings of the order of €15 billion over the next four years, with a substantial chunk of that frontloaded to 2011.

TDs on all sides may huff and puff from now until December 7th, but MEPs of the three main parties were bluntly told the facts of life by economic and monetary affairs commissioner Olli Rehn in Strasbourg on Monday night. Savings of €6 billion simply have to be made next year if Ireland is to get the EU-IMF bailout it needs to survive.

Rehn issued a more diplomatic statement yesterday in response to the plan but the message was the same. The targets in the four-year plan will have to be met. A new government will not necessarily be tied to all of the exact detail contained in the plan for the years after 2011, but it will have to come up with detailed alternative measures that bring about the same level of savings.

The Taoiseach tried to bring the debate forward at his press conference yesterday by insisting that there was no point in an endless debate about who is to blame for the crisis, given that voters will soon have their chance to speak on the issue.

The task facing everyone in politics now is to focus on how to get out of the mess the country is in.

Cowen delivered an assured performance as he defended the tough medicine outlined in the plan. The pity is that he didn’t do it consistently since he took office. It’s also a pity a detailed plan, along the lines of the one announced yesterday, was not published a year ago in response to the McCarthy report and the document from the Commission on Taxation.

The four-year plan will affect everybody in society but the impact will not be the same across all groups.

The unemployed and low- and middle-income earners will probably be affected most in terms of a significant reduction in their standard of living. One group will be hit through cuts in welfare payments, while the other will have to endure extra taxation.

People on State pensions will get off almost scot-free; while public service pensioners will be asked to make a contribution, it will be relatively small.

Existing public service workers are protected from further pay cuts, for the present at least, but new entrants to the public service will be paid 10 per cent less than those already in the door.

Cowen in his press conference speech spoke of inter-generational solidarity but the net effect of the plan will be harder on the young than the middle aged or old.

A reduction in the pool of public service jobs rather than a reduction in pay levels will make an already difficult jobs market even worse. The cut in the minimum wage will also impact disproportionately on the young, as will the moves to bring more people into the tax net and welfare cuts.

The overall intention is to create more low-paid jobs that will be more attractive than welfare payments.

Still, whatever the unevenness of the burden as spread between the generations, the plan appears tough enough to do the job required while not so tough that it will impose an intolerable burden on society.

As the Taoiseach emphasised, there is simply no way of avoiding a general reduction in living standards.

Taxation has to be brought up from 2003 levels to 2006 levels, while spending has to be reduced back to 2007 levels. It’s as simple as that.

Even if that happens there is no guarantee the plan will work unless there is some growth in the economy.

Ultimately the only way sustainable growth can come about is if public spending and taxation are brought into line. If the plan achieves that difficult task, the hope is that even higher growth than anticipated will materialise.

What lifted the Irish economy out of the recession in the late 1980s was the combination of prudent budgetary policy and growth after 1987. Much of the growth then was driven by a booming international economy, so Ireland is dependent on a return of calm to the euro zone and a steady level of economic growth.

A bit of luck would also be a welcome change after the past few years of unremitting bad news.

In terms of pure party politics, the plan has given the Government parties their platform for the forthcoming election.

Brian Lenihan went into campaigning mode at the end of yesterday’s press conference by saying the plan set out the only realistic policy options and any attempt to avoid them would demonstrate a lack of seriousness.

Fine Gael and Labour did a bit of political campaigning themselves in response to the plan. Enda Kenny said his party had already established from the European Commission that it would not be bound by the details of the plan for the years after 2011 but he didn’t spell out how Fine Gael was going to find the required savings for those three years.

Labour Party finance spokeswoman Joan Burton made the perfectly fair point that the plan presented the Irish people with the bill for 13 years of Fianna Fáil government. The problem is that the bill cannot be avoided by the electorate that put that Government into office three times in a row.

Burton again repeated the Labour position that the €6 billion adjustment in 2011 posed an unacceptable risk to growth in the Irish economy. However, given the fact that this figure has been agreed by the commission and the IMF, it is difficult to see how it can be avoided. Potential differences between Fine Gael and Labour will be glossed over by the passing of the budget as both parties will have no option but to sign up for the €6 billion figure if they take power after an election in February or March.

How they will behave after that is the real question because they will not be able to avoid very difficult choices over the coming years.

It is all very fine to talk about renegotiating some of the details in the plan but any alternative measures will be just as unpalatable for some segment of the electorate as the existing one.

There are no easy options left, even if the Opposition parties naturally do their best to convey the impression that there is a better way.

Commy

the irish gov't is following so many other countries regarding its loan from the wb.



debt repayment comes first, its part of the agreement they signed.



the irish people have every right to protest, they are getting effed in the a.

wolfamongwolves

F'd in the A indeed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLniOkpl ... r_embedded

wolfamongwolves

Fintan O'Toole's speech to the 50,000 - 100,000 (depending on who you believe) gathered in the snow at the GPO on O'Connell Street on Saturday:

"On one side of this street, in 1913, James Larkin was arrested as he addressed the workers of Dublin who had stood up to claim their dignity as citizens rather than serfs. On the other side, in 1916, Ireland was declared to be a republic under the control of its own citizens.

Today, we gather here to reclaim that sense of citizenship. As the fate of our country is being decided, it is a case of mind over matter. They don’t mind, and we don’t matter. Our rulers have no shame, and they believe we have no voice.

They tell us we have no choice, that there is no alternative. A government with no mandate will do a deal with people we have never elected. On the one side, we will borrow yet more billions to bail out the banks. On the other, there will be war on the poor and the vulnerable: a savage assault on the minimum wage, cuts in welfare payments and attacks on basic services for the old and the young, the sick and the disabled. And this will happen while the elite that caused this catastrophe protects its own interests. Under the government’s plan, a single person earning €40,000 will pay exactly the same amount of extra tax as someone earning €300,000. This is not a plan to save Ireland, it is a plan to save the Irish elite.

If we really have no choice in all of this, let’s stop pretending that we are a democracy. Let us, as part of the austerity programme, cut two whole years – 2013 and 2016 – because otherwise we will mark those centenaries amid a mockery of their ideals, as a powerless people in a country of mass unemployment, mass emigration and growing poverty and inequality.

But we do have a choice. We can emerge from this crisis with a renewed sense of solidarity and justice and with a vigorous democracy in which power has returned to the people. We are here today to say that we are not economic units whose only function is to behave ourselves and pay off the gambling debts of our masters. We are not children who must take our medicine or be sent to bed without our supper. We are not subjects, we are citizens. And we want our republic back."

---

www.fintanotoole.com

JordyWordy

watching this whole shiteheap slowly unfold....and get worse & worse over the past 3 years....it's been the most excrutiating experience.

one part of me initially thought that the IMF deal could be good for us, because it might involve a "audit" of our public spending, eg: there could be specific terms in the deal that forced us to sort the Public sector wage bill etc (eg Portlaois Hospital - 128 beds, 127 staff on "manager" salaries)....but alas, no joy. Just more Black Hole Banks being nationalised, more private debt being absorbed into the sovereign debt, and a government who dont seem to give a single fuck about their country, their reputations, their legacy, or the 90% of the population they are financially crippling.

Basically, the video with the robots has it 100% right.

We are completely fucked, and the reason we had not yet revolted, tried to throw FF out by force, is the same reason FF won the election in 2008 - realistically the opposition parties are full of similarly callow, hapless, inept politicians of a similar breed. (there are some HUGE exceptions to this, men of character out there, eg Michael Noonan, Richard Bruton, Caoimhin O Caolain, John Bruton etc).

The feeling that I get around my part of Dublin is that deep down, we dont feel that Fine Gael, Labour, or anyone else is equipped to deal with a fuck up of this magnitude....we need to get our groove back

wolfamongwolves

Wow. Brian Cowen - now more than twice as unpopular as George Bush at his worst.
Yet still claims the authority to write the economic plan for the next four years.
This country is a joke.

Fianna Fáil slip to fourth in opinion poll
Fianna Fáil suffered a bruising tonight after an opinion poll put support at just 13%. The party is now in fourth place behind Sinn Fein at 16%, according to a Red C survey for the Irish Sun. Support for Fine Gael has fallen by 1% to 32% on a similar Red C poll carried out on November 21. Labour’s popularity has dropped from 27% on the previous poll to 24%. Support for the Greens remains unchanged at 3%.

The survey of 1,000 adults was carried out on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday this week, days after Sinn Fein’s by-election win in Donegal South West and in the wake of the €85bn bailout plan.

Red C also asked the participants who they would like to see as the next Taoiseach, with only 8% backing Brian Cowen. Eamon Gilmore stands at 41% and Enda Kenny at 25% to be the next leader of the country.

wolfamongwolves

Labour proposes €4.5 billion in cuts

Labour has proposed cutting spending by €4.5 billion in its pre-Budget plans published today.

Capping public sector and political salaries at €190,000, creating a third tax rate of 48 per cent for top earners and increasing the tax on savings form part of the plan.

The party is proposing to create a €500 million jobs fund which, when set against economies of €5 billion, would result in overall spending cuts of €4.5 billion.

Party leader Eamon Gilmore said the proposals were a balanced approach that would tackle the national deficit while providing room for jobs and growth.

He attacked the Government’s plan to reduce spending by €6 billion in the Budget as “dangerous for Ireland” and an unacceptable risk to jobs and growth.

“The level of frontloading of cuts and tax hikes planned for the Budget is simply too much to swallow in one year. We cannot cut our way out of this crisis, we must also have growth,” he said.

The €6 billion sum was a “figure of convenience” and a product of a right-wing consensus in Ireland and Europe, he said.

Mr Gilmore described the deal with the IMF as a “sell-out” and said Labour, if returned to Government next year, would renegotiate it as soon as possible.

The party is proposing savings of about €5 million through political reforms, including the €190,000 salary cap on the Taoiseach’s salary and a commensurate further reduction of 17 per cent applying to ministers and ministers of state.

Ministerial cars would be pooled, and Garda drivers replaced by civilians unless security considerations apply.

The party says it would increase the annual tax on second home from €200 to €500, increase Dirt tax on savings to 30 per cent and cut personal tax credit by €250. Property-related tax reliefs would be abolished, yielding savings of €360 million a year.

The capital budget would be cut by €1.2 billion, but Mr Gilmore claimed this did not mean Metro North would not go ahead.

The public sector pay bill would be cut by €400 million, and €215 million would be saved by tackling welfare fraud and curbing spending on rent supplements.

Labour also says it can achieve almost €1 billion in non-pay savings next year while maintaining investment in education and front-line health services.

Resources would be prioritised for job creation and the public sector pay bill would be reduced by at least €1.4 billion over three years.

Heineken Helen

Are people waiting til the budget to get really angry? It's a shame there was snow for the protest as I'm sure the turnout would have been even much bigger.

For what it's worth, I only buy the Irish version of everything I'm buying (if there is one)

Heineken Helen

satansbed wrote:

but the boom was managable at that stage and was left out of control afterwards

I don't have a house... the amount of snobbery I've heard from people going 'why don't you buy a house?', 'cos I can't afford it', 'but you should get a mortgage anyway' :? There was a lot of pressure on people and it was pretty disgusting. When I was maybe 25, I had single friends on 30,000 a year, buying one bed apartments for 400,000 and asking me why I wasn't doing the same :shock: . Seriously, it got beyond ridiculous. I know people who were struggling to resell their boats and their jeeps and stuff!

Now you've got Germany lending us money to pay themselves back and charge more interest in the process. Who said they lost the war, eh? Greece - tick, Ireland - tick, how many more countries to go?

JordyWordy

I read Dara O'Briain's new book last week - "Tickling the English". He makes several comparisons throughout the book between English and Irish people, culture, etc.

Interestingly enough, one of the areas he discusses at length is the reputations that Irish have as (in general) being quite rebellious, louty, etc, while the British/English have a reputation as being conservative...and how realistically, the opposite is the truth. He basically says that Ireland is an incredibly reserved place still, even after the tiger and more foreign influence, we're still muted when it comes to protests, riots etc. I noticed it myself from my time over there, that people in the UK have high expectations of public officials & governments, whereas in Ireland there will always be an attitude of "no matter who's in charge, it'll never be right".
In other words, we as a pacified, ambivalent public have made the problem far worse, by casually whining and doing absolutely nothing to show angry we really are.

Can you imagine the scenes in England if this had happened to them? They'd (rightly) cause public mayhem, and get the fuckers out of office. Make things too hot for them to handle, draw too much international media attention to it, and bring the government to its knees.

JordyWordy

Currently watching Vincent Browne and Brian Lenihan slug in out on TV3.

Maybe we should just end the country, like a company wind-down, and start afresh? Call it something new, but familiar like "The South", "Southern Ireland", "The 26 Counties" etc, and just start over. It would be a bright new challenge for all of us?

nuffingman

JordyWordy wrote:

people in the UK have high expectations of public officials & governments, whereas in Ireland there will always be an attitude of "no matter who's in charge, it'll never be right".
In other words, we as a pacified, ambivalent public have made the problem far worse, by casually whining and doing absolutely nothing to show angry we really are.

Can you imagine the scenes in England if this had happened to them? They'd (rightly) cause public mayhem, and get the fuckers out of office. Make things too hot for them to handle, draw too much international media attention to it, and bring the government to its knees.

Ireland joins a lengthening list. Spain, Greece, doesn't Portugal have problems and did I read somewhere China seems to be having a few problems? The whole world is turning to shite!

As for your comment above I'm not so sure. people here have a habit of sitting back and moaning but doing fuck all, apart from the students that is. Send them and the football hooligans in and job done!

JordyWordy

nuffingman wrote:

JordyWordy wrote:

people in the UK have high expectations of public officials & governments, whereas in Ireland there will always be an attitude of "no matter who's in charge, it'll never be right".
In other words, we as a pacified, ambivalent public have made the problem far worse, by casually whining and doing absolutely nothing to show angry we really are.

Can you imagine the scenes in England if this had happened to them? They'd (rightly) cause public mayhem, and get the fuckers out of office. Make things too hot for them to handle, draw too much international media attention to it, and bring the government to its knees.

Ireland joins a lengthening list. Spain, Greece, doesn't Portugal have problems and did I read somewhere China seems to be having a few problems? The whole world is turning to shite!

As for your comment above I'm not so sure. people here have a habit of sitting back and moaning but doing fuck all, apart from the students that is. Send them and the football hooligans in and job done!

I think it's different for a country of only 4 million people - there isn't such a huge gap between a voter and the top level of office - i mean it's quite realistic for most Irish people to personally know (or have some local link to) at least one of the 3/4/5 o f the locally elected representatives for their constituency, and that makes the whole thing a bit more surreal /depressing / ambilavent.... or maybe it explains it all. i genuinely don't know anymore.

Heineken Helen

JordyWordy wrote:

I read Dara O'Briain's new book last week - "Tickling the English". He makes several comparisons throughout the book between English and Irish people, culture, etc.

Interestingly enough, one of the areas he discusses at length is the reputations that Irish have as (in general) being quite rebellious, louty, etc, while the British/English have a reputation as being conservative...and how realistically, the opposite is the truth. He basically says that Ireland is an incredibly reserved place still, even after the tiger and more foreign influence, we're still muted when it comes to protests, riots etc. I noticed it myself from my time over there, that people in the UK have high expectations of public officials & governments, whereas in Ireland there will always be an attitude of "no matter who's in charge, it'll never be right".
In other words, we as a pacified, ambivalent public have made the problem far worse, by casually whining and doing absolutely nothing to show angry we really are.

Can you imagine the scenes in England if this had happened to them? They'd (rightly) cause public mayhem, and get the fuckers out of office. Make things too hot for them to handle, draw too much international media attention to it, and bring the government to its knees.

Nah, I don't buy that at all... nobody here is happy with how things are being run but they're not doing anything. Their country has invaded countries that nobody wanted them to invade and nothing was done. The Irish are definitely more rebellious but on a small scale... try and get a decent conversation over here about conspiracy theories... people here are just as complacent about the government but, more worryingly, tend to believe a lot of what they're told but things are changing a bit. The fact that 100,000 showed up for the protests a few weeks ago in Dublin, even though the country was snowed in, said alot IMO but was pretty muted by the media if you ask me.

JordyWordy

Heineken Helen wrote:

Nah, I don't buy that at all... nobody here is happy with how things are being run but they're not doing anything. Their country has invaded countries that nobody wanted them to invade and nothing was done. The Irish are definitely more rebellious but on a small scale... try and get a decent conversation over here about conspiracy theories... people here are just as complacent about the government but, more worryingly, tend to believe a lot of what they're told but things are changing a bit. The fact that 100,000 showed up for the protests a few weeks ago in Dublin, even though the country was snowed in, said alot IMO but was pretty muted by the media if you ask me.

I initially thought that too, but think of how many mass public demonstrations there have been in Ireland in the past ten years even.....very few. Nice, Lisbon, Referendums, and the ones about Banking since 2008. And how many ones that became violent or even aggressive? the MayDay one one a few years ago (which was mindless fuckwit violence), and the student protest a few weeks ago where the gardai hit the students. That's it.

I'm not saying violent protest is better, but it definitely brings more media attention to the demonstrations.

Dara actually has a fairly lengthly list of protests in the UK that have turned violent to back up his point, i dont have it to hand. I agree with it in-so-far-as a general population is less inclined to act when their expectations and standards of officials are relatively low compared to other western euro countries.

Heineken Helen

JordyWordy wrote:

Heineken Helen wrote:

Nah, I don't buy that at all... nobody here is happy with how things are being run but they're not doing anything. Their country has invaded countries that nobody wanted them to invade and nothing was done. The Irish are definitely more rebellious but on a small scale... try and get a decent conversation over here about conspiracy theories... people here are just as complacent about the government but, more worryingly, tend to believe a lot of what they're told but things are changing a bit. The fact that 100,000 showed up for the protests a few weeks ago in Dublin, even though the country was snowed in, said alot IMO but was pretty muted by the media if you ask me.

I initially thought that too, but think of how many mass public demonstrations there have been in Ireland in the past ten years even.....very few. Nice, Lisbon, Referendums, and the ones about Banking since 2008. And how many ones that became violent or even aggressive? the MayDay one one a few years ago (which was mindless fuckwit violence), and the student protest a few weeks ago where the gardai hit the students. That's it.

I'm not saying violent protest is better, but it definitely brings more media attention to the demonstrations.

Dara actually has a fairly lengthly list of protests in the UK that have turned violent to back up his point, i dont have it to hand. I agree with it in-so-far-as a general population is less inclined to act when their expectations and standards of officials are relatively low compared to other western euro countries.

Violent protests usually turn people off though... like here, people are now turning against the students whilst in the beginning they were like 'yeh, fair play'. To be honest, violence or no violence, protests don't seem to make an ounce of difference!